A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. Players like Duran fall back to Earth all the time. Either decide they want to keep him around long term or deal him. Not sure they’ve made that decision yet.

Much like Ellsbury.

Of course, opposing teams are aware of this, too.

I think Duran falls into the extremely boring “in the right trade” category.  And I’d be surprised if he was dealt directly for pitching…

[Bellhorn04]

Ellsbury's sudden show of power in the 2011 season was a little fishy. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Duran Dealers fall a little short in the logic department.  😁

Cheap guy who had an 8bWAR season vs lottery ticket, who would another team prefer? If they choose a lottery ticket they deserve to get fired.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cheap guy who had an 8bWAR season vs lottery ticket, who would another team prefer? If they choose a lottery ticket they deserve to get fired.

Duran is 28 years old and entering arbitration years.  And as you say, he might fall back to earth. 

And as notin says, he'd be more appealing to a win now team.

No way you get any top tier pitching back.

 

 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cheap guy who had an 8bWAR season vs lottery ticket, who would another team prefer? If they choose a lottery ticket they deserve to get fired.

Duran does have 4 years of control left.  Without you runnng out and getting hired by some MLB team, what team would want him that has surplus pitching?

 

Id think if Duran did get dealt, it would be for prospect talent with the intention of flipping it for pitching.  Until Henry told Breslow to keep those cheap prospects, too…

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Id think if Duran did get dealt, it would be for prospect talent with the intention of flipping it for pitching.  Until Henry told Breslow to keep those cheap prospects, too…

And that's a pretty absurd plan IMHO.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And that's a pretty absurd plan IMHO.

So we’re in agreement it’s the most likely course of action…

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

So we’re in agreement it’s the most likely course of action…

Not even the current Sox brain trust could be that absurd IMHO.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not even the current Sox brain trust could be that absurd IMHO.

They traded Mookie without getting any pitching, and somehow you call THIS absurd?!?

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not even the current Sox brain trust could be that absurd IMHO.

The Red Sox have been a losing team out of the postseason for the last three years. Let’s just keep everyone, and stay that way. That’s absurd to me. Duran is not going to make, or break the Red Sox if he stays, or not. Package him, and Raffy I don’t care as long as it improves the team. I was attached to Red Sox players when I was a get, but not anymore. 

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Duran is 28 years old and entering arbitration years.  And as you say, he might fall back to earth. 

And as notin says, he'd be more appealing to a win now team.

No way you get any top tier pitching back.

I disagree.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

They traded Mookie without getting any pitching, and somehow you call THIS absurd?!?

One year of Mookie at 20M+ vs multi year Duran. They also could have had pitching but declined. C’mon man.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not even the current Sox brain trust could be that absurd IMHO.

Ok but before we go overboard overcommitting to Duran, you said teams don’t get better by trading their best player.  Well, who would you say was the best player on the 2023 Padres?

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

One year of Mookie at 20M+ vs multi year Duran. They also could have had pitching but declined. C’mon man.

I know they declined.  And that was absurd!! 
 

I don’t think you fully followed the thread at that point.  I was responding to Bellhorn saying the Sox FO couldn’t be that absurd…

[notin]

If the Sox can deal Duran and come out of it like the Padres did in dealing Soto, I think most of us wouldn’t mind.

 

And I know Duran is no Soto, but Duran also has 4 years of control and is pre-arb.  Soto was dealt with only one year left and a salary of $25mill.  And still got back Michael King and Drew Thorpe, whom the Padres then flipped for Dylan Cease.

Its not easy and the Sox would have to know who to target, but if they can deal Duran for even a fraction of that, it might be worth it…

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok but before we go overboard overcommitting to Duran, you said teams don’t get better by trading their best player.  Well, who would you say was the best player on the 2023 Padres?

Soto, but it was a very different situation.  

-Soto is one of the best players in the game and a long-term proven commodity

-Soto was in his contract year

So yeah, it would be comparable to the Betts trade, except the Padres did much better on the return.

 

 

[moonslav59]

To me, Duran would still be a blue chip trade candidate. While most teams would prefer Anthony and likely Campbell, Teel or Mayer, he'd still bring back a hefty return. He has 4 years of team control, and while all are arb years that are getting more and more expensive, he will still be grossly underpaid for 4 years.

IMO, our trade chips might be ordered like this:

1. Anthony- ML ready & pre-prime

2. Houck- 3 of 3 arbs remaining

3. Campbell- ML ready & pre-prime

4. Mayer- ML ready & pre-prime

5. Teel- ML ready & pre-prime

6. Duran- 4 of 4 arbs remaining

7. Casas- pre-arb for 1 year more

8. B Montgomery- prospect

9. Arias- prospect

10. Fitts, Priester, Sandlin, Crawford, Bleis, Cespedes, Perales, Tolle pretty much bunched together.

 

Most likely trade candidates:

1. LHB Abreu RF/LF

2. LHB DHam 2B/emergency SS

3. RHP Winckowski

4. SS Mayer

5. 1B Casas

 

[Maxbialystock]

On 10/1/2024 at 5:19 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

The problem with Soto is that the Yankees and Mets are both highly motivated and will be going toe to toe for him.

We're just kidding ourselves if we think Henry wants any part of that.

  

Agree of course.  Plus Soto is another lefty bat and another outfielder.  Despite his excellent WAR of 7.9, I do not believe he would be a difference maker for the Sox.  On top of that is your point that the Mets and Yankees will bid him up.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If the Sox can deal Duran and come out of it like the Padres did in dealing Soto, I think most of us wouldn’t mind.

 

And I know Duran is no Soto, but Duran also has 4 years of control and is pre-arb.  Soto was dealt with only one year left and a salary of $25mill.  And still got back Michael King and Drew Thorpe, whom the Padres then flipped for Dylan Cease.

Its not easy and the Sox would have to know who to target, but if they can deal Duran for even a fraction of that, it might be worth it…

I think I agree in general with the notion that almost anyone should be tradeable, and that includes the presumed big guns still in the farm system--Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Campbell, whoever.  

My fundamental disagreement with moonslav and just about everyone else on this board is the overwhelming emphasis on pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  

The case for pitching seems obvious because Sale is gone, Giolito is a huge question mark, and the current Sox rotation is basically a bunch of no-names:  Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, and whoever.  Closer Jansen is definitely a big name, but . . . 

Interestingly, however, the 2024 Sox team ERA finished 17th in MLB.  The best Sox team ever, 2018, was ranked 8th in team ERA, and DD spent a king's ransom to put them together.   The 2013 WS-winning Sox team's ERA was 14th in MLB.  The 2007 WS-winning Sox team ERA was 2d in MLB.  And the 2004 Sox team ERA was 11th.  

So my first point is that I challenge the notion that the Sox pitching is a complete disaster and needs massive infusions of expensive talent--any and/or all of which could be immediately wasted as it was last February/March when Giolito went on the freaking IL for the whole season.  Plus let's not forget the very costly loss of Price and Sale in 2019 and after.  

And my second point is that the Sox hitting this year was almost as bad as the pitching.  Anyone care to guess where the Sox were ranked in runs scored in the four WS-winning seasons?    In 2004 they were 1st, in 2007 4th, in 2013 1st, and in 2018 1st.  And this year, 2024, they were 8th in runs scored.  

So my final point is that the Sox need to focus on hitting almost as much as on pitching.   Moreover, the Sox need a couple of good righty bats because Fenway Park favors righty bats.  Indeed, the Sox finished 43-38 on the road and 38-43 at home in large part because of their over-reliance on lefty bats.  Had the Sox finished 43-38 at Fenway Park this season, they would have made it to the postseason--where I believe they would very likely have lost in the first round.  

When you look at the 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 Sox stats, you see that the leaders in total bases were overwhelmingly either righty bats or switch hitters.  

Do I need to remind one and all that 3 of the 4 best Sox prospects--Mayer, Anthony, Teel, and Campbell--are lefty bats?  Campbell is the lone righty bat.  

 

[moonslav59]

Max, Houck is no longer a "no name," and Crawford and Bello have gotten notice, to some extent. While Giolito is a big question mark, he has shown he can produce. Sure, 2019 to 2021 seems like light years away, but his 11.3 fWAR in that time period was 0.1 away from 6th best in MLB.

Our pitching was tied for 12th best in MLB, and we lose Pivetta (2.0 was 2nd best), Jansen (1.4 was 6th best) and Martin (0.5 was 8th best.) We are losing 3 of our top 8 pitchers. In contrast, we are losing one of our top 12 batters (O'Neill at #4 and a 2.5 fWAR.) Yes, he is a RHB,a dn we need help, there, but we do have Story and Grissom returning and Campbell offers much promise.

Our offense ranked 11th in fWAR, so your point about pitching and batting needing equal attention is well founded, but with 3-4 rookies about to make an impact, all are batters. All offer way more promise than Fitts, Priester, Guerrero and Penrod. We also finished 9th in runs scored, but Fenway had an influence on that. We were 7th in team OPS but here is a surprise: T10th in home OPS (.742) and 8th in Away OPS at .740.

Fangraphs has us 26th in fWAR on defense (-40.3.) and  25th in OAA at -18.

To me, we need to roll the dice on O and hope some prospects contribute. Add a back-up catcher (maybe a RHB with power) and maybe trade a LHB for a RHB- Abreu or DHam pop in my mind. I just don't see where we put a RHB, except to platoon with Abreu, but if Anthony becomes a FT starter, only benching Rafaela offers a spot for a RHB.

Defense needs to improve, but maybe a healthy Story will make a big impact. Anthony and Campbell may help, too. I seriously doubt we make any moves at corner IF, but that and catcher seems to be the only clear areas where a change could be made to greatly improve our D.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Soto, but it was a very different situation.  

-Soto is one of the best players in the game and a long-term proven commodity

-Soto was in his contract year

So yeah, it would be comparable to the Betts trade, except the Padres did much better on the return.

 

 

You do realize these are arguments FOR trading Duran?  Right?

If one year of Soto rebuilt the Padres rotation, what does 4 years of Duran offer? 
 

There are advantages to trying to move Duran over Soto.  With Soto, the one year limited you to teams ready to compete now.  And the $25mill contract limited you to teams with big budgets.  Duran is in everyone’s price range…

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/3/2024 at 9:23 PM, moonslav59 said:

One way of "making room" for all our top prospects is to avoid bottlenecks by having someone change a position.

Changing positions is not "radical." It happens all the way through the minors and into the bigs. It happens at age 17 and 18, in the middle of prime, or at the end of a player's career.

Right now, we have 3 major middle infielders (Story, Mayer and Campbell) plus Grissom and maybe DHam, if he can take another step up. Campbell can play OF, but probably not SS, longterm. I'm not sure any can play 3B real well, but the defensive bar is set pretty low by Devers.

Let's say we make room for Campbell in the OF. Now, we've added another player to an even bigger bottle neck, as we already have Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony plus more DH types like Refsnyder & Yoshida.

We can talk about trading guys like Abreu and Yoshida, without needing much in return, or how maybe its not worth it, and we should just keep Yoshida. Maybe we trade Rafaela or 2 or 3 from Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida, so all the kids can play, but we'd kinda have to trade all 3 or some current starter at SS, 2B or OF to get everyone a FT job. I guess we could trade Yoshida and Rafaela and go with LF Duran, CF Campbell, RF Anthony, SS Mayer and 2B Story. (Keep Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B and go with Refsnyder and Abreu at DH, but even handing Yoshida away with 75% of his deal paid off might be hard to do.

There simply is not room for everyone. We can hold a top prospect or two back, and gain more control time, but how much longer are we going to keep punting? (Believe me, I know they could easily choose another year or even two.)

I'm not sure what the best idea is, and maybe nobody knows, unless they can see into the future, but to me, it's time to put all heads together and make the toughest choice we've made in a long time, and let's hope it's not like trading Betts.

I think it is going to come down to choosing to trade one of the these big 4: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Casas. I'd prefer we keep Anthony and Campbell, but they might bring back a way better return.

I think Abreu is all but gone- maybe DHam, too. They both bat lefty and are right smack in the middle of bottlenecks. Trading them is not going to get anything great in return, and 2 bottlenecks will still remain. It's time to make a big trade. Who we choose to trade might be the biggest mistake we've made, other than trading Betts, since the Babe Ruth fiasco. Who we get in return is equally important, if not more so.

Make up your minds and pull the trigger. Call it "radical" or whatever, but keeping everyone while we have such a glaring need on our staff is radically dumb.

unless we agree to pay AT LEAST HALF of Yoshida's contract all we would get for him a low ranked prospect

[Randy Red Sox]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

You do realize these are arguments FOR trading Duran?  Right?

If one year of Soto rebuilt the Padres rotation, what does 4 years of Duran offer? 
 

There are advantages to trying to move Duran over Soto.  With Soto, the one year limited you to teams ready to compete now.  And the $25mill contract limited you to teams with big budgets.  Duran is in everyone’s price range…

given the depth we have in the OF we certainly could trade Duran but that trade had BETTER bring back a TOP YOUNG COST CONTROLLED SP

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

unless we agree to pay AT LEAST HALF of Yoshida's contract all we would get for him a low ranked prospect

I'd say more than half.

I'm not expecting jack in return, even if we pay 2/3rds.

I'm looking for a way to trade Yoshida to a team looking to cut salary, and taking back more salary than Yoshida, of pay down enough to make it a "saving" for the other team, but getting a useful, but higher priced, pitcher in return.

I admit, it is a longshot, and we'd have to find the perfect fit and willing GM to even have talks of such a deal.

More likely, we'd just trade Yoshida to a team and pay $12 of his $18M owed and get nothing significant in return. This would only be worth it, if we actually added the $6M x 3 years savings to another addition, or add that $6M to an offer and get a better pitcher as a FA. Spend $24M x 3, instead or $18M x 3 or $16M x 3, instead of $10M x 3 offers.

I'm just talking theory and trying to find some actual examples of what it might look like. So far, I think I have failed in my suggested offers.  I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, at even $6M x 3, but some teams might be looking to dump higher priced pitchers for someone other than Yoshida at $6M a year.

[Maxbialystock]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Max, Houck is no longer a "no name," and Crawford and Bello have gotten notice, to some extent. While Giolito is a big question mark, he has shown he can produce. Sure, 2019 to 2021 seems like light years away, but his 11.3 fWAR in that time period was 0.1 away from 6th best in MLB.

Our pitching was tied for 12th best in MLB, and we lose Pivetta (2.0 was 2nd best), Jansen (1.4 was 6th best) and Martin (0.5 was 8th best.) We are losing 3 of our top 8 pitchers. In contrast, we are losing one of our top 12 batters (O'Neill at #4 and a 2.5 fWAR.) Yes, he is a RHB,a dn we need help, there, but we do have Story and Grissom returning and Campbell offers much promise.

Our offense ranked 11th in fWAR, so your point about pitching and batting needing equal attention is well founded, but with 3-4 rookies about to make an impact, all are batters. All offer way more promise than Fitts, Priester, Guerrero and Penrod. We also finished 9th in runs scored, but Fenway had an influence on that. We were 7th in team OPS but here is a surprise: T10th in home OPS (.742) and 8th in Away OPS at .740.

Fangraphs has us 26th in fWAR on defense (-40.3.) and  25th in OAA at -18.

To me, we need to roll the dice on O and hope some prospects contribute. Add a back-up catcher (maybe a RHB with power) and maybe trade a LHB for a RHB- Abreu or DHam pop in my mind. I just don't see where we put a RHB, except to platoon with Abreu, but if Anthony becomes a FT starter, only benching Rafaela offers a spot for a RHB.

Defense needs to improve, but maybe a healthy Story will make a big impact. Anthony and Campbell may help, too. I seriously doubt we make any moves at corner IF, but that and catcher seems to be the only clear areas where a change could be made to greatly improve our D.

I think Story made a strong case for improving the defense.  But, guess what?  When Story returned in September and played in the final 18 games, during which his defense was superb and of great value to the Sox, they went 8-10.  And those 10 losses were mostly because the hitting went south.  The average runs scored by the Sox over those 18 games (in which Story played) in September was 3.83.  

Also, my point is that the Sox need to be among the top 5 in MLB in runs scored to be competitive.  Moreover, I honestly don't think they can get into the top 5 if their lineup is dominated with lefty bats as in fact it was this season.   2021 is worth mentioning because it was the last time the Sox made it to the postseason, when they also made it to the ALCS after beating the Yankees and RAys.  The 2021 Sox were ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored and--wait for it--15th in team ERA!!!!!!!  And guess where they were ranked in defense?  29th with the 2d most errors in MLB.  

So I strongly disagree with "rolling the dice" on hitting, especially when we know that Mayer, Anthony, and Teel are all lefty hitters.  

 

 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

unless we agree to pay AT LEAST HALF of Yoshida's contract all we would get for him a low ranked prospect

Most likely both. They’ll pay half AND get a low-ranked inconsequential prospect.  If their good about it, they might get some Greg Weissert type fringe reliever who has his moments…

[Randy Red Sox]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say more than half.

I'm not expecting jack in return, even if we pay 2/3rds.

I'm looking for a way to trade Yoshida to a team looking to cut salary, and taking back more salary than Yoshida, of pay down enough to make it a "saving" for the other team, but getting a useful, but higher priced, pitcher in return.

I admit, it is a longshot, and we'd have to find the perfect fit and willing GM to even have talks of such a deal.

More likely, we'd just trade Yoshida to a team and pay $12 of his $18M owed and get nothing significant in return. This would only be worth it, if we actually added the $6M x 3 years savings to another addition, or add that $6M to an offer and get a better pitcher as a FA. Spend $24M x 3, instead or $18M x 3 or $16M x 3, instead of $10M x 3 offers.

I'm just talking theory and trying to find some actual examples of what it might look like. So far, I think I have failed in my suggested offers.  I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, at even $6M x 3, but some teams might be looking to dump higher priced pitchers for someone other than Yoshida at $6M a year.

i agree he will bring back next to nothing in return but i do not expect Henry to allow Breslow to reallocate the difference. It should be obvious to even the most loyal FO apologists by now that Henry want this team constructed with young, cheap, cost controlled players sprinkled in with the odd veteran on 1-2 yrs {max} deals. This will keep the team around the .500 mark and prevent a RSN from revolting.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think Story made a strong case for improving the defense.  But, guess what?  When Story returned in September and played in the final 18 games, during which his defense was superb and of great value to the Sox, they went 8-10.  And those 10 losses were mostly because the hitting went south.  The average runs scored by the Sox over those 18 games (in which Story played) in September was 3.83.  

Also, my point is that the Sox need to be among the top 5 in MLB in runs scored to be competitive.  Moreover, I honestly don't think they can get into the top 5 if their lineup is dominated with lefty bats as in fact it was this season.   2021 is worth mentioning because it was the last time the Sox made it to the postseason, when they also made it to the ALCS after beating the Yankees and RAys.  The 2021 Sox were ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored and--wait for it--15th in team ERA!!!!!!!  And guess where they were ranked in defense?  29th with the 2d most errors in MLB.  

So I strongly disagree with "rolling the dice" on hitting, especially when we know that Mayer, Anthony, and Teel are all lefty hitters.  

 

 

i am pretty sure the Sox would really like to get off the Story contract as well.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

given the depth we have in the OF we certainly could trade Duran but that trade had BETTER bring back a TOP YOUNG COST CONTROLLED SP

It won’t.  Teams don’t trade those players for outfielders coming off career years…

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

You do realize these are arguments FOR trading Duran?  Right?

If one year of Soto rebuilt the Padres rotation, what does 4 years of Duran offer?

Nope, logic fail.

Since the Red Sox would be giving up those 4 years, you have an offsetting argument for keeping him.