Article: Three Realistic Moves the Red Sox Could Make This Offseason

[Hugh2]

Here are some fun trades accepted by BTV.  I'm sure you guys are going TO JUST LOVE THEM!!!!

Angels:

David Hamilton/Josh Winkowski  for  Reid Detmers

Marlins:

Cooper Criswell/Franklin Arias for Sandy Alcantara

Mariners:

Jarren Duran/Luis Perales for Logan Gilbert/Kristian Cadozo

or

Kristian Campbell/Wilyer Abreu/Cooper Criswell/Luis Perales for Logan Gilber/Brandyn Garcia

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here are some fun trades accepted by BTV.  I'm sure you guys are going TO JUST LOVE THEM!!!!

Angels:

David Hamilton/Josh Winkowski  for  Reid Detmers

Marlins:

Cooper Criswell/Franklin Arias for Sandy Alcantara

Mariners:

Jarren Duran/Luis Perales for Logan Gilbert/Kristian Cadozo

or

Kristian Campbell/Wilyer Abreu/Cooper Criswell/Luis Perales for Logan Gilber/Brandyn Garcia

I'm fine with the first two. 

Cardozo was RELEASED back in July. I think BTV does a pretty bad job with the MiLB valuations so I'll leave it at that. What is Gilbert's value? Is Duran's too low now considering he has more arb years left than Gilbert? 

No to the Campbell potpourri trade. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine with the first two. 

Cardozo was RELEASED back in July. I think BTV does a pretty bad job with the MiLB valuations so I'll leave it at that. What is Gilbert's value? Is Duran's too low now considering he has more arb years left than Gilbert? 

No to the Campbell potpourri trade. 

I make the first 2 and sign Burnes. Now you have two legit aces, 2 legit mid rotation guys (one of which looked like an ACE for much of this year) and two legit middle to back end guys who at times can be or may be better. 

Starting 5:  Burnes/Alcantara/Houck/Bello/Giolito 

Swing man: Crawford/Whitlock

Projects (guys who have tremendous potential but haven't put it together yet) Preister/Detmers. 

Minimal drainage of the farm system. Still under the luxury tax, team set for years. 

[Duran Is The Man]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine with the first two. 

Cardozo was RELEASED back in July. I think BTV does a pretty bad job with the MiLB valuations so I'll leave it at that. What is Gilbert's value? Is Duran's too low now considering he has more arb years left than Gilbert? 

No to the Campbell potpourri trade. 

i don't understand why anyone would make that trade for Detmers. i might trade WInk for him but even that seems like a lateral move to me.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i don't understand why anyone would make that trade for Detmers. i might trade WInk for him but even that seems like a lateral move to me.

Detmers could be a change of scenery guy who needs to ditch his horrible 4 seamer. Winckowski didn't buy into the Sox pitching strategy and should be on the chopping block. I think Detmers still has more value than Winck. 

[Hugh2]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Detmers could be a change of scenery guy who needs to ditch his horrible 4 seamer. Winckowski didn't buy into the Sox pitching strategy and should be on the chopping block. I think Detmers still has more value than Winck. 

Exactly, and it's not like you're trading any high end talent for him, nor are you signing him to slide into your rotation for 2025. 

Good teams make deals like this and fix guys. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Here are some fun trades accepted by BTV.  I'm sure you guys are going TO JUST LOVE THEM!!!!

Angels:

David Hamilton/Josh Winkowski  for  Reid Detmers

Marlins:

Cooper Criswell/Franklin Arias for Sandy Alcantara

Mariners:

Jarren Duran/Luis Perales for Logan Gilbert/Kristian Cadozo

or

Kristian Campbell/Wilyer Abreu/Cooper Criswell/Luis Perales for Logan Gilber/Brandyn Garcia

That Detmers trade is far from outrageous.

Detmers was great in 2022.  Worse but still serviceable in 2023.  Last year he started out awful, got demoted for June through August. He came back and made starts in September, but got battered around to the tune of a .990 OPSA.  And he in now entering his arbitration years.

He’s still young, but it’s hardly surprising BTV sets his price where they do…

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

That Detmers trade is only acquiring name recognition.

Detmers was great in 2022.  Worse but still serviceable in 2023.  Last year he started out awful, got demoted for June through August. He came back and made starts in September, but got battered around to the tune of a .990 OPSA.  And he in now entering his arbitration years.

He’s still young, but it’s hardly surprising BTV sets his price where they do…

Again, he's a talented arm.  Good teams take guys and fix them.  I never suggested they trade for him to be a 2025 starter. 

I like to buy low and sell high, of course in this case you may be buying low and staying low.....but at least you bought low. 

[notin]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Again, he's a talented arm.  Good teams take guys and fix them.  I never suggested they trade for him to be a 2025 starter. 

I like to buy low and sell high, of course in this case you may be buying low and staying low.....but at least you bought low. 

I’d make that deal, too.

 

From the tone of the post, it felt like you were saying these deals were unrealistic and lop-sided.  I don’t think that one is.  It’s. a fair price for a guy who threw BP during games for the final month.  
 

The real obstacle is one BTV can never overcome - would the Angels want Hamilton and Winkie?  They might, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they preferred different names that combined for the same surplus value…

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d make that deal, too.

 

From the tone of the post, it felt like you were saying these deals were unrealistic and lop-sided.  I don’t think that one is.  It’s. a fair price for a guy who threw BP during games for the final month.  
 

The real obstacle is one BTV can never overcome - would the Angels want Hamilton and Winkie?  They might, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they preferred different names that combined for the same surplus value…

I think to varying degrees they were not unrealistic. 

My tone was more geared towards the ideal that any time anyone makes a trade proposal it's going to create controversy. 

If I could travel through time and identify every trade the Sox make the next two years and post it here.  Half the board would call it absurd.  I tend to find most people either greatly undervalue or overvalue are own players.  

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this makes so much sense that it will never happen. great plan.

The thing about this plan is that we are not paying a penny more for it, or Trading any top prospect or young everyday payer, except Rafaela. We could even keep Rafaela as depth, and it changes nothing, except we get one less pitcher via his non trade.

I'm not asking anything for Yoshida, and would even give some money, just to allow another slot for a kid or Casas to DH and improve our D. If we wanted, we could DH Refsnyder and Abreu as a platoon and "rest" Devers and Casas at DH, often, instead of giving them full days off.

No money or players are given up to get the line-up I suggested.

All the winter budget could be directed towards pitching. If we were able to get a pitcher (maybe a highly-priced one) for Yoshida, great, but we dont have to. If we decide to tarde Abreu or Rafaela for a pitcher, it would barely make a dent in our line-up of depth, because they'd be replaced by Anthony, or maybe even Campbell.

It's not rocket science. It costs JH nothing.

Yes, you are right to say "it will never happen."

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell 2B

Story SS

Mayer 3B

Meidroth/Hamilton/Romy backups? 

To me, this is a much better defensive infield, even with Mayer playing a brand new position, and Campbell's defense at 2B being largely unknown. Quite simply, it can't be worse than Devers 3B, Story/Mayer SS, Mayer/Campbell 2B and Casas 1B.

The offense impact might be bad or good. We do swap a LHB (Casas) for a RHB (Campbell,) but Campbell might have replaced LHBs E Valdez and DHam and 2B, anyway. (Grissom is also a RHB.)

I'm not sure how well Campbell can play 3B, but we could try that, with Mayer (DHam/Grissom) at 2B.

[notin]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think to varying degrees they were not unrealistic. 

My tone was more geared towards the ideal that any time anyone makes a trade proposal it's going to create controversy. 

If I could travel through time and identify every trade the Sox make the next two years and post it here.  Half the board would call it absurd.  I tend to find most people either greatly undervalue or overvalue are own players.  

I’m guilty of overvaluing, which is why I like the concrete third party BTV valuations.  I like their simple idea - future WAR projection (in USD) minus future salary/salary projections.

Do real MLB teams do this?  Very likely, yes.  Not necessarily with the same projections, but they mostly do something similar.  Of course, unlike BTV, they know which players and positions they prefer…

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, this is a much better defensive infield, even with Mayer playing a brand new position, and Campbell's defense at 2B being largely unknown. Quite simply, it can't be worse than Devers 3B, Story/Mayer SS, Mayer/Campbell 2B and Casas 1B.

The offense impact might be bad or good. We do swap a LHB (Casas) for a RHB (Campbell,) but Campbell might have replaced LHBs E Valdez and DHam and 2B, anyway. (Grissom is also a RHB.)

I'm not sure how well Campbell can play 3B, but we could try that, with Mayer (DHam/Grissom) at 2B.

I have my doubts either Mayer or Campbell begin the 2025 season on the 40 man roster, let alone in the starting lineup.  Ditto Anthony…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I have my doubts either Mayer or Campbell begin the 2025 season on the 40 man roster, let alone in the starting lineup.  Ditto Anthony…

I've said the same thing numerous times.

I would also not be surprised if one of the 3 are held back beyond the date of gaining an "extra year" of team control. I could see Tell not joining the 26 until May of 2026.

My point was what it COULD be.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m guilty of overvaluing, which is why I like the concrete third party BTV valuations.  I like their simple idea - future WAR projection (in USD) minus future salary/salary projections.

Do real MLB teams do this?  Very likely, yes.  Not necessarily with the same projections, but they mostly do something similar.  Of course, unlike BTV, they know which players and positions they prefer…

They likely looks at years of control very closely, and not just of the two players involved.

Let's say the are considering trading 5 years of Abreu for 2 years of a pitcher (not named Crochet.) They may not think losing those 3 years of Abreu starting in 2017 is such a big loss, since we have Anthony, Jh Garcia and others that can and should step in and maybe be even better than Abreu.

Sure, it's all speculation, but such is the mindset of every GM.

[Nick]

I thought 2024 was the "Year of Discovery". We found out that Duran is a real deal. Rafaela defensively alone can make him a legit center field in the majors. Abreu becomes a 'great get' for Valdez rental. Hamilton with his speed alone has a place on the roster as a utility guy. Wong will be serviceable 1 or 2 behind the plate. Also Houck, Kutter and Bello can be a legit 2, 4 and 5 guys in the starting rotation. 

My issue is couple of things. Introducing Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Campbell in 2025 will extend the "year of discovery". They look to be major league ready but we will not know until we see them on the field. 

With that, I'm not sure trading away Abreu is a good move. Oh I have no issues with getting rid of Yoshida. He does not fit in. We don't need a .280 guy who can't play the field and has no real power. The issue is other 29 teams also know it. At best we can get rid of few million dollars off of our payroll but I would not count much of a return in player(s) unless we eat all of his contract. He will become addition by subtraction. He needed to go yesterday. Another 5 year, $90M deal that John Henry can wrap around his middle finger to the fan base.

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’m guilty of overvaluing, which is why I like the concrete third party BTV valuations.  I like their simple idea - future WAR projection (in USD) minus future salary/salary projections.

Do real MLB teams do this?  Very likely, yes.  Not necessarily with the same projections, but they mostly do something similar.  Of course, unlike BTV, they know which players and positions they prefer…

100% obviously no MLB team is using BTV, but they have their own internal valuation systems that place value on players that effectively does the same thing.  We will never see that, the team what we want to trade with might really undervalue our prospects.......or overvalue them. 

I think we sometimes think that just because we trade a guy away it's because we don't like them or, and this is my favorite, we think he won't develop into a player.  That's why I've always gotten a kick out of the "trade the guys overvalued and you don't think will make it" The irony is, despite that logic being complete ********, there actually is an element of truth to it if another team values your guys or said players it's a lot easier to make a deal. 

For example. If Seattle really really likes a few of our guys, we could probably have Logan Gilbert at a reasonable cost (still costing you at least one in the top 3-4+) but if they don't then it's not happening, or you're over paying. 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

100% obviously no MLB team is using BTV, but they have their own internal valuation systems that place value on players that effectively does the same thing.  We will never see that, the team what we want to trade with might really undervalue our prospects.......or overvalue them. 

I think we sometimes think that just because we trade a guy away it's because we don't like them or, and this is my favorite, we think he won't develop into a player.  That's why I've always gotten a kick out of the "trade the guys overvalued and you don't think will make it" The irony is, despite that logic being complete ********, there actually is an element of truth to it if another team values your guys or said players it's a lot easier to make a deal. 

For example. If Seattle really really likes a few of our guys, we could probably have Logan Gilbert at a reasonable cost (still costing you at least one in the top 3-4+) but if they don't then it's not happening, or you're over paying. 

Well said, and anybody we give up to get Gilbert does not mean we undervalue them or "gave up on them." To me, trading someone for Gilbert would actually show I value them very highly, because he is one heel of a pitcher, who also has many years of team control at arb cost.

[dgalehouse]

One of the things we always hear is how relief pitchers are hit or miss. Well, the fact is that ,aside from a very few, starting pitchers are definitely hit or miss as well. Between the ever increasing injuries , the five innings and done starts and the inconsistent performance, how many of them can you really count on ? Last year, Jordan " Monty" Montgomery was all the rage. How is he doing now ?  This year it looks like the whole Seattle staff is highly coveted. Well, I wouldn't be too quick to trade a top prospect for any of them. There is a good chance they will disappoint.  I think it would be a better idea to build a strong and deep bullpen. That is where the Sox lost so many games this year.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

One of the things we always hear is how relief pitchers are hit or miss. Well, the fact is that ,aside from a very few, starting pitchers are definitely hit or miss as well. Between the ever increasing injuries , the five innings and done starts and the inconsistent performance, how many of them can you really count on ? Last year, Jordan " Monty" Montgomery was all the rage. How is he doing now ?  This year it looks like the whole Seattle staff is highly coveted. Well, I wouldn't be too quick to trade a top prospect for any of them. There is a good chance they will disappoint.  I think it would be a better idea to build a strong and deep bullpen. That is where the Sox lost so many games this year.

Absolutely.

 

Starters cost too much and break too easily.   They’re the fine China of the pitching world.  I disagree that relievers are volatile pitchers, and rather prefer to say volatile pitchers are relievers.  There is a difference; some relievers are steady, reliable contributors.  Focus on them.  One thing you repeatedly say that I agree with completely is it’s a bullpen game now.  The Sox should get a SP, plus some depth.  But focus on the pen.  Not necessarily the closer, who only handles 60-70 IP.  But also those middle to setup guys, who might have to pi some 300-400 IP combined..

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

One of the things we always hear is how relief pitchers are hit or miss. Well, the fact is that ,aside from a very few, starting pitchers are definitely hit or miss as well. Between the ever increasing injuries , the five innings and done starts and the inconsistent performance, how many of them can you really count on ? Last year, Jordan " Monty" Montgomery was all the rage. How is he doing now ?  This year it looks like the whole Seattle staff is highly coveted. Well, I wouldn't be too quick to trade a top prospect for any of them. There is a good chance they will disappoint.  I think it would be a better idea to build a strong and deep bullpen. That is where the Sox lost so many games this year.

16 hours ago, notin said:

Absolutely.

 

Starters cost too much and break too easily.   They’re the fine China of the pitching world.  I disagree that relievers are volatile pitchers, and rather prefer to say volatile pitchers are relievers.  There is a difference; some relievers are steady, reliable contributors.  Focus on them.  One thing you repeatedly say that I agree with completely is it’s a bullpen game now.  The Sox should get a SP, plus some depth.  But focus on the pen.  Not necessarily the closer, who only handles 60-70 IP.  But also those middle to setup guys, who might have to pi some 300-400 IP combined..

I agree with both of you that building a strong bullpen is crucial. 

But as with so many things, it's easier said than done.

Our 2 most reliable relievers the last 2 years were the guys we spent real money on.  You have to spend to get "proven commodities".  Otherwise you're in the same old boat of developing them yourself or somehow procuring them in creative ways - AKA throwing stuff at the wall - Cam Booser was a nice story for a little while.  The Red Sox have procured and tried zillions of relievers the last few years, with predictably mixed and sometimes embarrassing results.

Breslow did try to acquire a couple of relatively proven relievers at the deadline.  How'd that work out?

Just saying it's not as easy as it might sound.   

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I agree with both of you that building a strong bullpen is crucial. 

But as with so many things, it's easier said than done.

Our 2 most reliable relievers the last 2 years were the guys we spent real money on.  You have to spend to get "proven commodities".  Otherwise you're in the same old boat of developing them yourself or somehow procuring them in creative ways - AKA throwing stuff at the wall - Cam Booser was a nice story for a little while.  The Red Sox have procured and tried zillions of relievers the last few years, with predictably mixed and sometimes embarrassing results.

Breslow did try to acquire a couple of relatively proven relievers at the deadline.  How'd that work out?

Just saying it's not as easy as it might sound.   

Just like with starting pitching, we all know who the better relievers are.  Sign them.  Look at Tanner Scott or Andrew Chafin instead of Joely Rodríguez, for example.  Real money?  The Sox spent about $16mill AAV for Jansen and $8mill for Martin.  If we spend that on starters, what do we get? Frankie Montas and Martin Perez or Wade Miley? Would they be considered “proven commodities”?

 

The best RP are going to be cheaper than the best SP.  Instead of paying heavily to upgrade the rotation, upgrade the bullpen for less and get depth for the rotation.

 

Or are you arguing against upgrading the bullpen because Sims and Garcia struggled?  It’s not like everyone the Sox have plugged into the rotation was an immediate impact either.  I didn’t choose  Perez and Wiley solely because they fit my salary requirements… 

[moonslav59]

18 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

One of the things we always hear is how relief pitchers are hit or miss. Well, the fact is that ,aside from a very few, starting pitchers are definitely hit or miss as well. Between the ever increasing injuries , the five innings and done starts and the inconsistent performance, how many of them can you really count on ? Last year, Jordan " Monty" Montgomery was all the rage. How is he doing now ?  This year it looks like the whole Seattle staff is highly coveted. Well, I wouldn't be too quick to trade a top prospect for any of them. There is a good chance they will disappoint.  I think it would be a better idea to build a strong and deep bullpen. That is where the Sox lost so many games this year.

I agree, and I was just thinking of posting about our pen, and who we should bring back next year or replace. It is so hit or miss, that it seems like almost everyone should come back, at least as AAA depth, in hopes that some do better, and you ride their horse for as long as you can. 

Acquiring good RP'ers is probably more hit or miss than SP'ers. You mentioned Monty, but last year a lot of marginal SP signings ended up doing well and even very well, and many of them were mentioned as landing spots for the Sox. While Monty got a lot of talk, much of that was because he was one of the last guys standing. I was very high on Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and luke warm on a few others that did well, like Wacha, Flaherty and lower cost risk Severino.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Or are you arguing against upgrading the bullpen because Sims and Garcia struggled?  It’s not like everyone the Sox have plugged into the rotation was an immediate impact either.  I didn’t choose  Perez and Wiley solely because they fit my salary requirements… 

Man, you really don't bother to read sometimes.  

I said building the bullpen is crucial, just that it's not easy.  I sure as hell didn't argue against upgrading it. 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Man, you really don't bother to read sometimes.  

I said building the bullpen is crucial, just that it's not easy.  I sure as hell didn't argue against upgrading it. 

It’s probably easier and much less risky than rebuilding the rotation.  The notion that relief pitchers are inconsistent and therefore unreliable is a sweeping generalization that applies to a lot of them, but far from all.  The consistently effective ones are more expensive, but are still cheaper than the inconsistent starting pitchers.

If the Sox focus limited financial resources on Tanner Scott, Andrew Chafin, Carlos Estevez, etc. as opposed to whatever starter they can afford, they’ll probably do a better job upgrading the staff…

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s probably easier and much less risky than rebuilding the rotation.  The notion that relief pitchers are inconsistent and therefore unreliable is a sweeping generalization that applies to a lot of them, but far from all.  The consistently effective ones are more expensive, but are still cheaper than the inconsistent starting pitchers.

If the Sox focus limited financial resources on Tanner Scott, Andrew Chafin, Carlos Estevez, etc. as opposed to whatever starter they can afford, they’ll probably do a better job upgrading the staff…

It’s a generalization for sure, it rings more true when you remove the top of the market.  Elite closers are getting paid, and they are performing.  
 

after that, results can vary wildly.  With relievers they only need to pitch 1-2 innings and don’t need to turn a lineup over.  They’re usually a one trick pony.  You lose your pitch or control and it gets ugly fast.  Conversely, there are less things to fix when you’re a relief pitcher.  
 

one good pitch makes you a serviceable reliever in the bigs.

[Hugh2]

Much how much of an upgrade is Tanner Scott when you’re losing Jensen?

sox need pitching, starting and relievers.

Sign me up for Burnes/Scott

[Tedballgame]

The Red Sox need to sign Trevor Bauer. Give the guy another chance. Never charged or convicted of anything. Never liable in any civil suit for anything. He can pitch. 

[notin]

42 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

The Red Sox need to sign Trevor Bauer. Give the guy another chance. Never charged or convicted of anything. Never liable in any civil suit for anything. He can pitch. 

Every time someone mentions Bauer, there’s the (understandable) response of “would you want to explain to your daughter what this guy did?”

I’ll going to answer that prematurely.  I have a 17yo daughter who’s old enough to understand sexual assault.  She’s also a baseball fanatic, easily as bad as me, and makes some observations I never thought of, like “Christian Vazquez clearly has some form of albanism.”  Diehard Cubs fan who was visibly upset when they traded Christopher Morel.  Her statistical preference is OPS for any player, always eschewing BA and RBI and only discusses HRs as a rate rather than a total.  She also thinks Alex Cora, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman should be banned from MLB, but not Jose Altuve as he did not participate in the scandal.
 

On Bauer, she asks me “why is MLB doing him dirty?”  And she mentions players like Julio Urias, Marvell Ozuna, and Aroldis Chapman, who were just as bad and punished minimally in comparison.  She’d probably freak out if she knew about Bret Myers, who once beat up his wife on Lansdowne Street in full view of numerous witnesses and was allowed to pitch again.

Bauer is a PR problem, but not more of one than numerous others.  Yet he doesn’t get a second chance.  

If only he had stuck to more wholesome hobbies, like using his interpreter to place his bets.

Of course, Bauer is actually not being punished by MLB.  He’s just being collectively avoided as a PR problem by the same owners who look at Aroldis Chapman and think “But good left-handed relief pitching…”. (Since his incident with the Reds, which was bad enough that the Dodgers backed out of a trade that had already been publicly announced, Chapman has been acquired by the Yankees, the Cubs, the Yankees (again!), the Royals, the Rangers, and the Pirates, and won two World Series rings.  I’ll also wager sixth team signs him this off-season.)