Craig Breslow: CBO of the Red Sox

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

According to Steve the Ump's numbers, the Sox were within about $15-16M of being the top spender in MLB from 1998 to 2000. In 2001, we were just about tied with NYY for the #1 spending team. It's not like JH, took over a cheap-spending team. We already had Manny on the books. The Yanks pulled ahead in 2002 and were over $50M ahead by 2003, as the Sox dipped to 5th.

In 2004, the Sox jumped to 2nd by adding $25M to the 2003 budget, but the Yanks added $30, and were still pulling away. We cut $4M going into 2005, while the Yansk added another $23M to their total. It was after this that the Yanks started cutting, while the Sox stayed about even. The Sox jumped up in 2007 by jumping $23M, while NYY cut $4M.

In 2008, the Sox cut the budget, again, and the Yanks jumped theirs. We cut another $11M into 2009, but retained our 4th place ranking. The Yanks barely added anything in 2010, while the Sox splurged by jumping $40M and into 2nd place. PHI passed us in 2011, as we stayed about even.

We dropped spending by $23M and ranking (3rd to 4th) in the 2013 championship season. That limited the complaining by fans, for a while. We added significantly in '14 and '15, but finished in last place. We were 3rd in spending in 2015 at $187M. We slowly added payroll, as the Dodgers passed us and NYY. We were at about $200M in 2017.

We jumped spending by $35M in 2018 and went to #1. We stayed #1 in 2019, but then started the big slash and burn plan. Despite the massive cut, we still stayed at #3 in 2020 and 2021.

Why we cut so much for 2022 remains a topic of angry debate, as we dropped to 6th, but in reality, we actually spent $15M more in '22 than '21 (tricked ya!) The difference was that many teams went nutty with spending, and that was the major factor in our srop in the rankings, that year. Cutting $20M for 2024 was the main reason we dropped 7 more slots, although we were still about $5M from being top 10.

I'm not as sure as others that a clear trend of continuing cuts is underway. It looks almost impossible to determine an trend, except that we have not jumped spending significantly in a long time, and other teams are spending way more.

What we decide to spend in 2025 is a total guess. Nobody knows, but maybe JH & Co. I'm not even sure they have decided, yet.

i bet Marlins, A's, Rays and Pirates fans say the same thing. and because they are, John Henry's solution is to spend even less. brilliant. LOL.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i bet Marlins, A's, Rays and Pirates fans say the same thing. and because they are, John Henry's solution is to spend even less. brilliant. LOL.

You assume JH is going to keep cutting. I'm not sure. I don't think anyone can be sure.

I'm not expecting more spending. I'm not expecting less. If I had to guess, I'd say we stay about the same or add $5-15M to the 2024 budget, and maybe stay near the same ranking (10-12th.) 

I seriously doubt we ever get to bottom 15, let alone bottom 10 or 5. If we do, I'll join in on the JH has to go chants.

[vegasbob]

So, it's October 15th ! Is Brez off his vacation yet ? What has he and his group done to improve this team ? 

Somewhat in jest , but watching some of the playoff teams so far  and watching numerous recent former Red Sox  playing  I'm just wondering how we got to the place we are.  Overloaded with LH bats and still thin pitching especially in the BP.    It appears that more successful teams have  strong BP's.    

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, vegasbob said:

So, it's October 15th ! Is Brez off his vacation yet ? What has he and his group done to improve this team ? 

Somewhat in jest , but watching some of the playoff teams so far  and watching numerous recent former Red Sox  playing  I'm just wondering how we got to the place we are.  Overloaded with LH bats and still thin pitching especially in the BP.    It appears that more successful teams have  strong BP's.    

If the pen is not significantly improved, the sham continues.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, vegasbob said:

So, it's October 15th ! Is Brez off his vacation yet ? What has he and his group done to improve this team ? 

Somewhat in jest , but watching some of the playoff teams so far  and watching numerous recent former Red Sox  playing  I'm just wondering how we got to the place we are.  Overloaded with LH bats and still thin pitching especially in the BP.    It appears that more successful teams have  strong BP's.    

We'll still be hearing this line when the 40 man roster isn't filled out on Thanksgiving. 

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the pen is not significantly improved, the sham continues.

The bigger sham was the belief that there was an inevitable cliff. It was merely self imposed. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The bigger sham was the belief that there was an inevitable cliff. It was merely self imposed. 

Of course JH could have become what the Dodgers and Mets are, today.

Nobody ever said there HAD TO BE A CLIFF, or that it was inevitable. We knew JH was not going to go from the #1 spending team (2019) to much greater heights to keep all the stars or replace them in kind.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The bigger sham was the belief that there was an inevitable cliff. It was merely self imposed. 

The sham, here, is you inventing we thought.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course JH could have become what the Dodgers and Mets are, today.

Nobody ever said there HAD TO BE A CLIFF, or that it was inevitable. We knew JH was not going to go from the #1 spending team (2019) to much greater heights to keep all the stars or replace them in kind.

If it wasn't inevitable, why did you post about it for years and years? 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If it wasn't inevitable, why did you post about it for years and years? 

I spelled it out, and you know exactly what my position was and always has been.

It was "inevitable," when you believe JH will not spend and spend year in and year out. He never did before, and I did not expect he'd start in 2019.

We can cry all day long, "But JH CAN SPEND MORE!" That does not make it inevitable he will. 

JH has cut spending every 2-3 years, over his whole era. I felt it was inevitable, he would again, and that we'd pay the price. You and others claimed, among other ideas, that we could build the farm quickly, that JH would just keep raising the budget from an already 1 ranked budget, or that we still had a strong enough core to keep the window going for 3-4 more years.

The farm had nothing from Devers to Houck. 

The rules were changed to make winning and spending teams have a harder time stocking the farm.

Stiff penalties were added to big spenders, and thinking JH was going to pay those taxes was la-la land.

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I spelled it out, and you know exactly what my position was and always has been.

It was "inevitable," when you believe JH will not spend and spend year in and year out. He never did before, and I did not expect he'd start in 2019.

We can cry all day long, "But JH CAN SPEND MORE!" That does not make it inevitable he will. 

JH has cut spending every 2-3 years, over his whole era. I felt it was inevitable, he would again, and that we'd pay the price. You and others claimed, among other ideas, that we could build the farm quickly, that JH would just keep raising the budget from an already 1 ranked budget, or that we still had a strong enough core to keep the window going for 3-4 more years.

The farm had nothing from Devers to Houck. 

The rules were changed to make winning and spending teams have a harder time stocking the farm.

Stiff penalties were added to big spenders, and thinking JH was going to pay those taxes was la-la land.

2021 proved there was no need of a cliff, even with smaller payrolls.

Just a few good moves make all the difference.  Bloom made them in 2021.  He did not make them in 2022 or 2023.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2021 proved there was no need of a cliff, even with smaller payrolls.

Just a few good moves make all the difference.  Bloom made them in 2021.  He did not make them in 2022 or 2023.

It would have taken masterful moves to keep the team competitive with the slashes imposed on the GM. I never expected a 6 year cliff. I think I even suggested it could/should be 2-3 years, which makes 2021 just about on track. 

I also never expected the cuts and tight budgets by JH to last about 6 years. I expected him to "cycle" back to spending to or just over the tax line every 2-4 years. We did spend (poorly) and did go over one year- the one we should not have.

Bloom was hired to find cheap players that overperformed: he didn't find enough, and he was nearly Oh-For on his biggest contracts handed out. (Jansen and Martin did fine, but he only had them in his era for 1 year.)

Story, Yoshida, Barnes, Richards, Kluber and Kike II were his first $10M+ deals. If you count M Perez I + II as $10M+, that's oh for 7 until 2023. Maybe we could have made the playoffs had he just gobe 2 for 7 or 3-7- maybe not, but it was never going to be a glory team, once Betts was botted.

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe we could have made the playoffs had he just gobe 2 for 7 or 3-7- maybe not, but it was never going to be a glory team, once Betts was botted.

They did come pretty close in 2021.  That team was somewhat lucky to make it as far as they did, but luck does often play a part. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They did come pretty close in 2021.  That team was somewhat lucky to make it as far as they did, but luck does often play a part. 

Yes, and that was quicker than I ever imagined we could get back to the playoffs, but I think it proved to be a blip on the radar screen of a longer down time.

Although we started spending more, for a brief time, we lost so many players, even after Kimbrel & Kelly, then Betts, Price & Porcello. 

I think we could have ended the "cliff" after 1-2 years, had JH returned to the "cycle" or spending. It seems like 2022 (the over the limit year) was a mirage, and just about everything went wrong.

I do think the cliff was worse than I expected in 2020, but not having Sale and ERod hurt, badly.

I think the 2021 season made JH feel like he did not have to spend a ton to win, so we missed a chance to pull out of it quickly. JH and of course, Bloom's poor choices extended the bad times.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2021 proved there was no need of a cliff, even with smaller payrolls.

Just a few good moves make all the difference.  Bloom made them in 2021.  He did not make them in 2022 or 2023.

He tried to look smart rather than just be smart. 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He tried to look smart rather than just be smart. 

What? By intentionally spending less than he could have, to look smart?

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What? By intentionally spending less than he could have, to look smart?

By focusing on the bottom of the 40 man to impact change instead of the top of the 40 man. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

By focusing on the bottom of the 40 man to impact change instead of the top of the 40 man. 

Don't you think a mandate to cut tens of millions from the budget kinda forced his hand on that?

I doubt he thought he'd be viewed as "smart" by replacing Porcello, Betts & Price with Dugo, Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Jonathan Lucroy. (I think those last 3 guys cost like $11M.)

No way did he think he was building a 2020 winner and would be called "the smart one." 

Even with the $11M winter spending by Bloom, the budget was still reduced by about $60M, according to cots adjusted CB Tax numbers.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

By focusing on the bottom of the 40 man to impact change instead of the top of the 40 man. 

The 2019 team did not do well, and yes, we can blame some of how bad 2020 was on the missing Sale and ERod, plus JD's .680 season, but these guys were FAs after 2019:

Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg

These guys might not be great, but with $11M to spend and you had to trade Betts and Price, all you can do is build up the lower part of the 40.

This was the season end roster to 2019:

https://www.soxprospects.com/2019SE.htm

 

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The 2019 team did not do well, and yes, we can blame some of how bad 2020 was on the missing Sale and ERod, plus JD's .680 season, but these guys were FAs after 2019:

Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg

These guys might not be great...

I don't think 2020 is the problem here. He gets a big time pass for that. The reason he got fired was 2022 and 2023. By that time, he should have been able to figure out the payroll issues. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He tried to look smart rather than just be smart. 

Bloom was at least smart enough to know what he got himself into.

Declaring the Red Sox wouldn't be as good after trading Mookie or calling the club "underdogs" to justify not making any major deadline moves weren't the words of a CBO proud of his actions or inactions.

Maybe it was Bloom's way of speaking in code to the fans and admitting he was just following orders.

Ultimately, ownership got sick of his smartmouthing and gave him the axe.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bloom was at least smart enough to know what he got himself into.

Declaring the Red Sox wouldn't be as good after trading Mookie or calling the club "underdogs" to justify not making any major deadline moves weren't the words of a CBO proud of his actions or inactions.

Maybe it was Bloom's way of speaking in code to the fans and admitting he was just following orders.

Ultimately, ownership got sick of his smartmouthing and gave him the axe.

 

 

As I posted the other day, Breslow is already letting us know he's not calling the shots:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/10/24266818/craig-breslow-is-not-in-charge-of-the-red-sox

You know, I think we are preparing for that to be the case. It’s obviously difficult to say, you know, this will be more aggressive in terms of what actually comes to fruition, because we can’t always decide those things, but we are preparing to be more decisive, more aggressive, you know, to field a team that is capable of winning the division, of making a deep playoff run, you know, I think we did several years, obviously predating me, building a really strong foundation, and the reason you do that is so you can deliver on the field. And I do think we are arriving at that point. That was the tone that Sam struck, that is, you know, the messaging I’m getting throughout the organization, is that, you know, it’s time to deliver to our fans the teams that they have come to expect, the competitive level they’ve come to expect of the Boston Red Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As I posted the other day, Breslow is already letting us know he's not calling the shots:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/10/24266818/craig-breslow-is-not-in-charge-of-the-red-sox

You know, I think we are preparing for that to be the case. It’s obviously difficult to say, you know, this will be more aggressive in terms of what actually comes to fruition, because we can’t always decide those things, but we are preparing to be more decisive, more aggressive, you know, to field a team that is capable of winning the division, of making a deep playoff run, you know, I think we did several years, obviously predating me, building a really strong foundation, and the reason you do that is so you can deliver on the field. And I do think we are arriving at that point. That was the tone that Sam struck, that is, you know, the messaging I’m getting throughout the organization, is that, you know, it’s time to deliver to our fans the teams that they have come to expect, the competitive level they’ve come to expect of the Boston Red Sox.

In the past year, I saw a Bellhorn who became more aggressive towards the front office, and more decisive with posts.

MVP, notin, Old Red, Max are more regressive, as oppressive to each other as they are to Sox ownership.

Moon is depressive, finally giving up predicting another John Henry Wave of winter spending...

... but we've all lost our buoyancy, waist-deep in the ocean, peering expectantly at the horizon for that perfect body-surfing wave -- "not this one, the next one!" -- sorry, boys, it's low tide. Time to head back to the beach and dry off (5Gs hiding in the realm of digressive).

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think 2020 is the problem here. He gets a big time pass for that. The reason he got fired was 2022 and 2023. By that time, he should have been able to figure out the payroll issues. 

Agreed, and he actually got to spend some (Story and Yoshida,) and missed the boat.

I will add that the spending did not really come close to what was lost (Kimbrel, Betts, Price, Porcello, ERod, JD, Nate, Bogey...)

He was paid to build a team on less money but way more than the rays ever paid out, and he failed.

Nobody is upset with the Bloom departure. Not many were with Ben's either, except the way it went down. Some felt he should have been given one more year, but wondered if he'd ever pull the trigger on a big prospect trade.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In the past year, I saw a Bellhorn who became more aggressive towards the front office, and more decisive with posts.

MVP, notin, Old Red, Max are more regressive, as oppressive to each other as they are to Sox ownership.

Moon is depressive, finally giving up predicting another John Henry Wave of winter spending...

... but we've all lost our buoyancy, waist-deep in the ocean, peering expectantly at the horizon for that perfect body-surfing wave -- "not this one, the next one!" -- sorry, boys, it's low tide. Time to head back to the beach and dry off (5Gs hiding in the realm of digressive).

I expected more spending, not really predicted it.

The "full throttle" got me. I was scammed and shammed.

It's always been hard to predict JH's winter spending budget. DD was easy, until 2019, but then again, he did just extend Bogey and re-sign Nate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I expected more spending, not really predicted it.

The "full throttle" got me. I was scammed and shammed.

It's ok. Someday our ancestors will read Tom Warner's memoirs, where he'll say he was, too.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I expected more spending, not really predicted it.

The "full throttle" got me. I was scammed and shammed.

It's always been hard to predict JH's winter spending budget. DD was easy, until 2019, but then again, he did just extend Bogey and re-sign Nate.

And Sale!!

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

And Sale!!

Yes! How could I forget?

That was why we lost Kimbrel & Kelly and still saw the budget go up.

It is the perfect example of how hard it is to keep a great team intact without spending way more money just to keep what you have. 

Everyone know standing still is not a winning strategy, and JH wouldn't even do that. Standing still would have cost a ton more, unless we got a taker for Full Price and got by without replacing Porcello.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In the past year, I saw a Bellhorn who became more aggressive towards the front office, and more decisive with posts.

MVP, notin, Old Red, Max are more regressive, as oppressive to each other as they are to Sox ownership.

Moon is depressive, finally giving up predicting another John Henry Wave of winter spending...

... but we've all lost our buoyancy, waist-deep in the ocean, peering expectantly at the horizon for that perfect body-surfing wave -- "not this one, the next one!" -- sorry, boys, it's low tide. Time to head back to the beach and dry off (5Gs hiding in the realm of digressive).

Impressive and not excessive…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In the past year, I saw a Bellhorn who became more aggressive towards the front office, and more decisive with posts.

MVP, notin, Old Red, Max are more regressive, as oppressive to each other as they are to Sox ownership.

Moon is depressive, finally giving up predicting another John Henry Wave of winter spending...

... but we've all lost our buoyancy, waist-deep in the ocean, peering expectantly at the horizon for that perfect body-surfing wave -- "not this one, the next one!" -- sorry, boys, it's low tide. Time to head back to the beach and dry off (5Gs hiding in the realm of digressive).

Body surfing? I know we're old in here, but c'mon!