Craig Breslow: CBO of the Red Sox

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems like a really over the top reaction to me.  

I think he's making a lot of noise in hopes that Jordan is uncomfortable with taking the player option for next season. If I'm Jordan, I'm taking that 25M though. As a pitcher, you never know when the last pitch you throw will be. He had such a rough year, I don't expect a bigger contract waiting for him in FA. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The thing about pitching is, it's the one position where every team has room to improve.  If you acquire a 4 WAR starting pitcher and he bumps a 1.5 WAR pitcher from the rotation to the pen you pick up 2.5 wins and also improve your rotation depth and/or your bullpen.

Yes.

If your 1.5 SP'er bumps a 0.1 RP'er to AAA, the $ WAR guy, actually replaced the 0.1 guy for a 3.9 gain.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he's making a lot of noise in hopes that Jordan is uncomfortable with taking the player option for next season. If I'm Jordan, I'm taking that 25M though. As a pitcher, you never know when the last pitch you throw will be. He had such a rough year, I don't expect a bigger contract waiting for him in FA. 

Agreed.

 

But if you were Mike Hazen, you’d probably be told to move as much of that $25mill as possible…

 

 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes.

If your 1.5 SP'er bumps a 0.1 RP'er to AAA, the $ WAR guy, actually replaced the 0.1 guy for a 3.9 gain.

I like the accidental yet accurate replacement of “4” with “$”…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I like the accidental yet accurate replacement of “4” with “$”…

I'm having a hard time tyyyyyyping.

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I like the accidental yet accurate replacement of “4” with “$”…

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Agreed.

 

But if you were Mike Hazen, you’d probably be told to move as much of that $25mill as possible…

 

 

If you're the Red Sox, how much $ would you pay Monty to pitch next season? He was really bad this year. 

[mvp 78]

Just seems like the Sox are trying to find the next young ace right before he's developed into one rather than get a Jordan Montgomery type. 

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he's making a lot of noise in hopes that Jordan is uncomfortable with taking the player option for next season. If I'm Jordan, I'm taking that 25M though. As a pitcher, you never know when the last pitch you throw will be. He had such a rough year, I don't expect a bigger contract waiting for him in FA. 

The DBacks owner also railed against MLB for the Mets-Braves doubleheader thing.  Not without some justification, but his team could have prevented the situation by winning 1 more game.

What he said about Montgomery really crossed into George S. "fat toad" territory.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The DBacks owner also railed against MLB for the Mets-Braves doubleheader thing.  Not without some justification, but his team could have prevented the situation by winning 1 more game.

What he said about Montgomery really crossed into George S. "fat toad" territory.

If he's mad about the Mets mailing in the last game, they would have mailed in Game 162 if it was played the following day instead of a double header. If they wanted to be in the playoffs, win one more game. Agree. The owner seems like a dipshit. 

Per a googling, he's a software/banking billionaire who collected baseball cards growing up and now owns the most expensive baseball card in the world and the grading company that grades the most cards. He probably gets along real well with John Henry and is the worst. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If you're the Red Sox, how much $ would you pay Monty to pitch next season? He was really bad this year. 

A trade like Sale where the DBacks  pay $17M, and the Red Sox give them a prospect.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If you're the Red Sox, how much $ would you pay Monty to pitch next season? He was really bad this year. 

$10 mill seems to be the standard Reclaimation Project price tag.  In any deal for Montgomery, that’s the maximum I would want to pay.  They pay $15mill min.

 

Of course that number changes if they insist on a better prospect in return…

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with moon in that I hope the Red Sox aren't looking for any more reclamation projects to add to the rotation.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I agree with moon in that I hope the Red Sox aren't looking for any more reclamation projects to add to the rotation.

Adding one for depth is okay, but it can't be the be-all-end-all, anymore. Plus, we already have more than our fair share with Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer all considered opening day roster pitchers. That's 4 out of 13.

[moonslav59]

Here is a quick comp between Bloom pitcher additions and Brez pitcher additions (4 years to 1.)

Bloom: Whitlock, Pivetta, Wink, Schreiber, Bernardino (Barnes extension & Blier trade) Ottavino

Kluber, Richards, Perez I & II, Wacha, Hill, Paxton I

Jansen, Martin, Strahm, Kelly, Diekman, Robles, Davis, P Valdez, Sawamura, Andriese

Brez: Gios, Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Sandlin

Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell, Horn, Anderson, Keller, Uwasawa, garcia, Sims, Paxton II, Hill II

Draft (bonus $)

Bloom: (Nobody over $600K and one over $500K)

 600K Drohan '20

300-600K: E R-C '21, Rogers '22, Dean '22, Duffy '23, Early'23

200-300K Wu-Yelland '20, Olds '21, Ehrlicher '22

Brez:

$2M Tolle

$1.25M Cason

$700K Neely

$400K Clarke

$300K Aita &Tygart

$250K Futrell

$200K Brooks

I'm pretty sure Brez spent more in bonus money on pitchers over $200M in one year than Bloom did in 4 years combined.

There looks to be a marked difference in strategy.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I agree with moon in that I hope the Red Sox aren't looking for any more reclamation projects to add to the rotation.

I don’t equate bringing in a pitcher after one bad year as being the same as hoping a pitcher can rebound from injury..

Montgomery had a rough season, possibly impacted by missing ST.  If he is healthy and not a TJ waiting to happen, he’s worth the risk…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he's making a lot of noise in hopes that Jordan is uncomfortable with taking the player option for next season. If I'm Jordan, I'm taking that 25M though. As a pitcher, you never know when the last pitch you throw will be. He had such a rough year, I don't expect a bigger contract waiting for him in FA. 

I believe the option is a player option for $22.5M, not $25M

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I believe the option is a player option for $22.5M, not $25M

He needed two more starts to get to $25M.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I believe the option is a player option for $22.5M, not $25M

Per MLB.com, the option vests at $22.5mill after 18!starts and $25mill after 23. Montgomery made 21 starts.

He might file a grievance because he went to the bullpen for a month towards the end of the season.   He could argue it was to prevent the better option from vesting, but his performance to that point did justify it.

I saw no mention of what the option does in the event of a trade…

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I believe the option is a player option for $22.5M, not $25M

Well I guess he turns down the 22.5 then! Not enough money!!!

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Per MLB.com, the option vests at $22.5mill after 18!starts and $25mill after 23. Montgomery made 21 starts.

He might file a grievance because he went to the bullpen for a month towards the end of the season.   He could argue it was to prevent the better option from vesting, but his performance to that point did justify it.

I saw no mention of what the option does in the event of a trade…

I don't know if the grievance process will help him. May not help Rowdy Tellez and any potential issue there either against the Pirates. 

[Bellhorn04]

Craig is not really in charge and wants us to know that LOL

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/10/24266818/craig-breslow-is-not-in-charge-of-the-red-sox

[Maxbialystock]

On 10/2/2024 at 8:37 AM, mvp 78 said:

If he's mad about the Mets mailing in the last game, they would have mailed in Game 162 if it was played the following day instead of a double header. If they wanted to be in the playoffs, win one more game. Agree. The owner seems like a dipshit. 

Per a googling, he's a software/banking billionaire who collected baseball cards growing up and now owns the most expensive baseball card in the world and the grading company that grades the most cards. He probably gets along real well with John Henry and is the worst. 

MLB owners tends to be dilettantes, but I don't put JH or Ken Kendrick in that category. 

JH bought the Sox in 2002 when they were good, but just couldn't end what became the 86 year drought.   He brought in a smart management team as well as Bill James, author of the book Sabermetrics.  Plus he had previous experience owning a minor league team and later the Miami Marlins.  And he was willing to underwrite a competitive payroll, usually among the top 3 or 5--and even now and then the biggest payroll (2018 and 2019) in MLB.  Thus did John Henry end the drought in 2004 and win three more WS after that, including 2018, the best Boston Red Sox team ever.  Under his ownership, the Sox have had at least five CBO's (Epstein, Cherington, Dombrowski, Bloom, and Breslow) and as many managers (Little, Francona, Valentine, Farrell, and Cora).   John Henry bought the Sox for $660M, and they are now reportedly worth over $4B.   He is the best Sox owner ever and very possibly the best owner in MLB since 2002.  

Kendrick is the 2d and by far the longest owner of an expansion team (first season 1998) in Arizona which has actually been reasonably competitive despite middling payrolls and middling attendance at games.  They won the WS in 2001 by beating the Yankees--and thereby set the MLB record for fasted route to their first WS win.  Last year they made it back to the WS and lost to the Rangers, and their payroll was ranked 21st in MLB and their average attendance at games, 24,212, was ranked 20th.  

You, sir, do not know squat about owners.  

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

You, sir, do not know squat about owners.  

Uh, ok? 

[Bellhorn04]

Is it better to know squat or to not know squat, BTW?

[mvp 78]

Breslow stated FO and ownership have currently "kind of shifted the dial toward the present at the expense of the future." 

🦆⛵

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow stated FO and ownership have currently "kind of shifted the dial toward the present at the expense of the future." 

🦆⛵

“Kind of shifted”?.  What’s that mean?

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Is it better to know squat or to not know squat, BTW?

Squat’s an a-hole.  You’re better off not knowing him…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

“Kind of shifted”?.  What’s that mean?

The longer quote I can pull is: 

“I think there’s a constant calibration. I don’t think an offseason should ever be focused exclusively on either of those things, especially not here… to say that we’ve kind of shifted the dial toward the present at the expense of the future, I think would be a fair characterization.”

I don't think that clarifies anything though.

[moonslav59]

According to Steve the Ump's numbers, the Sox were within about $15-16M of being the top spender in MLB from 1998 to 2000. In 2001, we were just about tied with NYY for the #1 spending team. It's not like JH, took over a cheap-spending team. We already had Manny on the books. The Yanks pulled ahead in 2002 and were over $50M ahead by 2003, as the Sox dipped to 5th.

In 2004, the Sox jumped to 2nd by adding $25M to the 2003 budget, but the Yanks added $30, and were still pulling away. We cut $4M going into 2005, while the Yansk added another $23M to their total. It was after this that the Yanks started cutting, while the Sox stayed about even. The Sox jumped up in 2007 by jumping $23M, while NYY cut $4M.

In 2008, the Sox cut the budget, again, and the Yanks jumped theirs. We cut another $11M into 2009, but retained our 4th place ranking. The Yanks barely added anything in 2010, while the Sox splurged by jumping $40M and into 2nd place. PHI passed us in 2011, as we stayed about even.

We dropped spending by $23M and ranking (3rd to 4th) in the 2013 championship season. That limited the complaining by fans, for a while. We added significantly in '14 and '15, but finished in last place. We were 3rd in spending in 2015 at $187M. We slowly added payroll, as the Dodgers passed us and NYY. We were at about $200M in 2017.

We jumped spending by $35M in 2018 and went to #1. We stayed #1 in 2019, but then started the big slash and burn plan. Despite the massive cut, we still stayed at #3 in 2020 and 2021.

Why we cut so much for 2022 remains a topic of angry debate, as we dropped to 6th, but in reality, we actually spent $15M more in '22 than '21 (tricked ya!) The difference was that many teams went nutty with spending, and that was the major factor in our srop in the rankings, that year. Cutting $20M for 2024 was the main reason we dropped 7 more slots, although we were still about $5M from being top 10.

I'm not as sure as others that a clear trend of continuing cuts is underway. It looks almost impossible to determine an trend, except that we have not jumped spending significantly in a long time, and other teams are spending way more.

What we decide to spend in 2025 is a total guess. Nobody knows, but maybe JH & Co. I'm not even sure they have decided, yet.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The longer quote I can pull is: 

“I think there’s a constant calibration. I don’t think an offseason should ever be focused exclusively on either of those things, especially not here… to say that we’ve kind of shifted the dial toward the present at the expense of the future, I think would be a fair characterization.”

I don't think that clarifies anything though.

And that is if we take them at their word. To me, their word means squat, and apparently squat is an "A-hole."

It should mean we are prepared to trade a prospect or two (the future) for a shorter controlled player(s.) as in the present, but it still does not really address the need to spend more.