Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have to be careful, because old Sammy is getting pretty smooth with the lines.  Here's what he actually said:

"Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.” 

  

He's not lying. He wants the Sox to win 90 and the AL East a couple times -- but he doesn't give a timetable. It could be in his lifetime, in the next century, or at least before the planet implodes from weather catastrophes and deadly pandemics because of fossil fools causing climate change and ignoring worldwide health.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have to be careful, because old Sammy is getting pretty smooth with the lines.  Here's what he actually said:

"Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.” 

  

90 wins isn't taking the division. 

[moonslav59]

Yes, he never actually promised to go over, this or any year, and the criteria for success is only if they think we can win 90-95 games, not that we actually do it.

Just get to the point where they "think we can."

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

90 wins isn't taking the division. 

Exactly.

It's all about giving fans the perspective that we MIGHT have a chance at sneaking into some sort of magical season ending.

I do think they did a better job, this winter at actually getting us closer, but they always come up short of doing what it takes to get us over the hump.

[mvp 78]

From the outside looking in, a more reasonable goal for this team is 85 wins. This is not a 90 win team. 

[notin]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

From the outside looking in, a more reasonable goal for this team is 85 wins. This is not a 90 win team. 

It’s going to come down to how many injuries they have and how well they can overcome them.  The difference between 85 wins and 90 wins isn’t that much.  It’s like saying this team isn’t going to win 55% of their games. 52% tops…

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s going to come down to how many injuries they have and how well they can overcome them.  The difference between 85 wins and 90 wins isn’t that much.  It’s like saying this team isn’t going to win 55% of their games. 52% tops…

I'd say 5 wins is a lot.  We made a blockbuster trade for Crochet to try to add 4-5 wins, basically...

[jad]

On 1/21/2025 at 9:30 AM, notin said:

I’m sure many rich folks get ripped off by their employees.  But let’s be realistic.  The ones who do rip them off have some sort of access to their money.  Assistant?  Accountant? Sure.  Gardener? Probably not.

Shohei isn’t some single guy living with his translator in a luxury bachelor pad.  He has a wife. He probably has an accountant.  He might even have a personal assistant.  (It is LA, after all)

To think his wife, accountant, assistant, and bank all didn’t notice these transactions? And the one guy with complete access to his account was the guy whose sole responsibility was to translate languages for him (which is not a financial thing).

The more one thinks about it, the less likely Shohei appears  innocent…

Identify the "one"; that means you.  It doesn't mean me, or many others who have looked into this. The more i think about the better the official story offered up seems, largely because the alternatives: (1) provide NO evidence, zero evidence for their claims, (n.b.  SHOHEI HAS A WIFE!!!!  so?  and note that he didn't have one when all this acc. to tin-hat basement dwellers went down) and (2) are generally cast in the subjunctive (he 'probably' has an accountant), and (3) are generally unreasonable and too often the product of unstable minds (not in your case, but in many others)

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s going to come down to how many injuries they have and how well they can overcome them.  The difference between 85 wins and 90 wins isn’t that much.  It’s like saying this team isn’t going to win 55% of their games. 52% tops…

I agree that injuries or the lack of them can and will be the difference-maker, as with many other teams.

As of now, we will be entering the season with just 2 guys that will likely be placed on the 60 Day IL on opening day: Sandoval & Murphy. Whitlock might begin the season on the 10 day IL and may take a few weeks to join the big club, but there is a chance he starts the season on the 26. Gio is saying he will be ready, but maybe he has a setback.

We can argue all day long about which players are injury prone and what sort of chances they have at staying healthy for 90-95% of the season, but these names jump out: Story, Casas, Buehler, Hendriks and Whitlock. (Gio & Sandoval are dealing with a recent injury but don't have long histories of injuries.)

I'm not so sure our complete roster looks anymore susceptible to injuries than the norm, but staying as healthy as the norm or better would put us in the 85-90 win range, IMO. Much better than the norm might get us to 91-94 wins.

I've mentioned this before, and I realize many other of the top contending teams have a lor of young talent who still have not reached peak prime, but I see a lot of room for age/experience- related improvement on this team. The whole roster and beyond is full of pre-prime, prime, peak prime and not-yet-out of prime players. It's easier to just list the ones that are past prime, and note how few of them are being counted on to fill a major role on the 2025 team, except as a closer:

36: Chapman

35: Hendriks

33: Refsnyder (short-side platoon) & Bernardino

32: Story (turns 33 after the season)

Still in "Prime:" Yoshida (turns 32 in July) and Giolito & Buehler (both turn 31 in July)

[mvp 78]

I bet y'all didn't know the Sox had the 3rd best offseason in the MLB. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I bet y'all didn't know the Sox had the 3rd best offseason in the MLB. 

Second best as a percentage. (12%) I'd love to think we are not done, but I'm close to giving up hope.

There is still Bregman. Maybe we could add Estevez & Grichuk or make one more trade for a catcher or solid pen arm, but I think we'll wait on that, until we get a better read on our top prospects and how some others look to start the season.

Some areas to watch:

Catcher & catcher defense: Has Wong improved? Can Narvaez hit well enough to stick on the 26?

2B: A DHam-Romy platoon shows a lot of promise, based on 2024 splits and defense, but Grissom is still trying to prove 2023-2024 was the outlier and not his first 1-2 seasons. Campbell could storm the position and pull a Pedey... or not.

SS: Story's health remains a years long question that has rarely been answered in the positive.

RHB: Will Rafaela play RF v LHP, or will we give Abreu a chance to play FT. As of now, I think Ref plays LF and Duran CF vs LHPs, but Ref could platoon at DH w Yoshida.

Closer: Will Chapman or Hendriks win the position and  save 85-90% of games? Can Slaten or Whitlock step in, if they don't? (Will it be too late, even if they can and do?)

Corner IF defense: Is there any hope Casas can improve his 1B defense? Devers has showed he can go extended periods of time playing okay or near average defense at 3B, but can he do it for a full season?

To me, the rest of the team looks pretty solid and has decent depth (C and 3B not so much depth.)

 

[mvp 78]

Wong will be the same. Narvaez should be ok enough for a backup. They still need a long term fix.

I really think Campbell just wins the 2b job in ST and stabilizes the position.

Story is going to have a 4 WAR season. 

Abreu will platoon. Anthony will be called up. Rafaela has a diminished role as UTIL.

Hendriks is the closer into May. Slaten takes it over for the rest of the year. 

Devers will be better pairing up with Story for 150 games. No change for Casas.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wong will be the same. Narvaez should be ok enough for a backup. They still need a long term fix.

I really think Campbell just wins the 2b job in ST and stabilizes the position.

Story is going to have a 4 WAR season. 

Abreu will platoon. Anthony will be called up. Rafaela has a diminished role as UTIL.

Hendriks is the closer into May. Slaten takes it over for the rest of the year. 

Devers will be better pairing up with Story for 150 games. No change for Casas.

Sounds about right.

If a DHam-Romy/Grissom platoon is working well in ST'ing and into 2025, I wonder if they purposely delay Campbell's call-up, so he gains a year of control, while building up the trade value of our 2Bmen.

I think Anthony might have an easier route to being the first call-up, despite our OF being viewed as a strength. We lost O'Neill. Abreu has horrific splits. Rafaela has not shown he can hit lefties or righties. Ref and Yoshida have clear defensive liabilities.

Which seems like the better alignment?

LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Abreu-Rafaela

LF Duran, CF Anthony-Rafaela, RF Abreu-Anthony (depending on L-R platoon bt Abreu-Rafaela)

LF Anthony-Duran, Duran-Rafaela, Abreu-Anthony (see A-R platoon)

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Abreu-Rafaela

This is fine, but I wouldn't make it a strict platoon. Rafaela would also be getting backup reps at CF/2B/SS.

[moonslav59]

Paul Sewald to Guardians for $7M/1.

[Duran Is The Man]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I bet y'all didn't know the Sox had the 3rd best offseason in the MLB. 

if we add Bregman and his projected 4.1 fWAR, that puts the Sox at an increase of 8.5 and greater than the 1st place Mets. 

[moonslav59]

Big If.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if we add Bregman and his projected 4.1 fWAR, that puts the Sox at an increase of 8.5 and greater than the 1st place Mets. 

Alex Bregman would help the Red Sox but FanGraphs would subtract the projected WAR for the players (games and plate appearances) whom Bregman would replace.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If guys in their 30s like Story, Hendriks and Giolito can stay healthy this year, they're still older than when they were actually good.

At least Chapman was a savior the last month (9 saves), and Buehler was good for a week...

... was Justin Wilson ever good? Let's see... (scanning bb-ref's Similar Pitchers through 36) ah, here it is: #3. Craig Breslow.

[moonslav59]

At this point, Bregman is the only difference maker out there.

We can't afford another top prospect(s) for an impact player. Bregman checks two boxes (RHB and plus D at 3B.)

Maybe offer him a way higher AAV on a shorter deal, or maybe give an opt out after 1 or 2 years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At this point, Bregman is the only difference maker out there.

We can't afford another top prospect(s) for an impact player. Bregman checks two boxes (RHB and plus D at 3B.)

Maybe offer him a way higher AAV on a shorter deal, or maybe give an opt out after 1 or 2 years.

Breg and Boras are still waiting to see if the Red Sox will offer opt-outs to season-ticket holders for refunds if the front office refuses to upgrade a .500 team to the president's goal of a roster worthy of 90 to 95 wins.

[Hugh2]

IF the Sox end up signing Bregman it will certainly be interesting.  I wonder how much more value he adds to the team playing 3B moving Devers to DH than he does just playing 2nd?

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if we add Bregman and his projected 4.1 fWAR, that puts the Sox at an increase of 8.5 and greater than the 1st place Mets. 

It would also take someone's fWAR off the roster, but not sure who they would project. 

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I bet y'all didn't know the Sox had the 3rd best offseason in the MLB. 

All of which leaves us at #13 in projected WAR and about the same in projected payroll.

Both better than average!

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All of which leaves us at #13 in projected WAR and about the same in projected payroll.

Both better than average!

 

We say No Foolin, when Sam says Yes Foolin.

Red Sox fans' glasses are always half fool.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We say No Foolin, when Sam says Yes Foolin.

Red Sox fans' glasses are always half fool.

Cora will be called upon to say "Yeah, we know what the projections say" with a knowing grin, just like he did last year, when they turned out to be dead on.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Cora will be called upon to say "Yeah, we know what the projections say" with a knowing grin, just like he did last year. 

Cora, his coaches and Breslow all attend the same whine and cheese party, where they piss and moan to each other but practice pretending everything's ok. Kennedy is Speaker of the Louse.

Their incontinence is intercontinental, honoring a gulf that to some now takes the name of three continents.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All of which leaves us at #13 in projected WAR and about the same in projected payroll.

Both better than average!

 

They were 15th in hitting and 11th in pitching last year, so it looks like we're about the same as before? I'm still higher on some of our guys than the projections. 

[Hugh2]

54 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It would also take someone's fWAR off the roster, but not sure who they would project. 

Sox also had 8 position players in 2024 who had negative WAR.  Having more up the middle guys and better depth should mean at least one less of those guys. 

[mvp 78]

Running out of time for a move?