Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

“Burnes and Fried”, for the record, would be a great name for a satirical cooking show starring a comedy duo.

I’m thinking the type of show where the “chefs” try to make macaroni and cheese, but wind up in the burn unit with molten cheddar in their hair.

I was looking at that duo in the current context of Red Sox pitching investments.

John from Yacht World just called in: "Every pitcher we sign BURNES us! And if you think I'm spending on anymore, I'm FRIED!"

[moonslav59]

We won't sign even one of Burnes or Fried, I fear.

My guess is, we trade Abreu, a prospect from #5-15 + Grissom for the best SP'er we can get, and that won't land us a #1 or even a #2. Maybe we sign Kikuchi or Flaherty.

We really need 3 SP'ers, so Crawford and Whitlock can be our mid/long men in the pen. I guess, we could build up the pen more than we need without adding the 3rd SP.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 8/24/2024 at 10:55 PM, moonslav59 said:

 

I agree with the backfire part.

 

A keystone combo of healthy Bogey and Story would have been buttah.

Except it wouldn't be buttah because Story is never on the field.

[Maxbialystock]

On 8/27/2024 at 11:59 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I was looking at that duo in the current context of Red Sox pitching investments.

John from Yacht World just called in: "Every pitcher we sign BURNES us! And if you think I'm spending on anymore, I'm FRIED!"

Yacht World is a tad less rosy these days.  A Yacht and/or a personal jet are pretty much the ultimate in ridiculously wealthy consumption.   I can honestly say I yearn for neither, but I'm guessing JH does simply because he is reportedly a billionaire--and that's what most of them have.  

I have two theories about JH.  One is the one everyone on talksox believes, that he's transformed himself into a skinflint, a cheapskate, possibly as a result of the 2019 collapse of the Sox when they had the biggest payroll in MLB and DD was telling John Henry he needed a lot more money to keep Mookie from the Dodgers and to replace Price and Sale as starters while continuing to pay their huge salaries.

The other theory is that, despite his net worth of maybe $4B or $5B, John Henry might have cash flow issues.  Simply stated, I have no idea how profitable the Sox and the other sports franchises JH owns are, month to month and year to year.  2020, for example, could not possibly have been profitable. 

And since then MLB has gone to a lot of trouble to streamline the game to make it more attractive to fans.  Huge changes in extra inning games with the ghost baserunner on 2b from the 10th inning on.  DH in the NL.  Pitch clocks that are enforced, ditto rules on how much lounging outside the batter's box a hitter is allowed to do.  Some say those pitch clocks have affected the durability of starting pitchers because they have less recovery time between pitches.  

Meanwhile, back in Boston the Sox are now in their 5th straight season, beginning with zero attendance in 2020, of lower attendance.  From 2003 through 2019, average Sox attendance was somewhere around 36K or 37 K.  In 2020, 0 attendance.  In 2021, 21K,  In 2022-2024, about 32.5K.   

I think a case can be made that the Sox attendance has stayed around 32K in part because of the departure of Mookie Betts.  Seriously.  In 2018 the Phillies average attendance was 27, 318, and the next year, 2019, it jumped to 33, 671, event though in both seasons, 2018 and 2019 the Phillies won-lost records were right around 81-81 with no hope of the postseason.  What changed was that the Phillies signed Bryce Harper after the 2018 season.  This year, 2024, with good seasons last year and the year before, plus Trea Turner at SS and Kyle Schwarber at DH, the Phillies attendance is an insane 41,497, 3d highest in MLB.  

On the other hand, the Dodgers got no bump when they added Mookie.  In 2019 their attendance was 49,065.  This year it's 48,270--but still by far the highest in MLB.  Yankees are 2d with 41,826.  

Back to John Henry.  He is not a novice at owning baseball teams because he was the Marlins owner before he owned the Sox and a minor league club owner before he owned the Marlins.   First he made a fortune in commodities, and now has done the same with sports franchises.  He bought the Sox for $660M, and now they are worth $4B or $5B, but that doesn't mean he can't have a cash crunch.  

 

[Hugh2]

On 8/27/2024 at 12:02 PM, moonslav59 said:

We won't sign even one of Burnes or Fried, I fear.

My guess is, we trade Abreu, a prospect from #5-15 + Grissom for the best SP'er we can get, and that won't land us a #1 or even a #2. Maybe we sign Kikuchi or Flaherty.

We really need 3 SP'ers, so Crawford and Whitlock can be our mid/long men in the pen. I guess, we could build up the pen more than we need without adding the 3rd SP.

Nah, I say go big or go home or drive John Henry out of town. 

 

They've never had less excuses than this year to not spend.  They're competitive, they have a young core and a top farm system coming up to supplement the big leauge club and they have money off the books with money to spend.   

If they don't spend now, they should be tarred and feathered and chased down to Florida. 

 

Give me Burnes/Beiber. 

Burnes/Houck/Giolito/Bello/Crawford  Depth: Criswell/preister/Fitts/Winck.

 

Beiber comes back mid season. So your rotation down the stretch if healthy is

Burnes/Beiber/Houck/Giolito/Bello.

***No prospects were harmed in the making of this roster. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Nah, I say go big or go home or drive John Henry out of town. 

 

They've never had less excuses than this year to not spend.  They're competitive, they have a young core and a top farm system coming up to supplement the big leauge club and they have money off the books with money to spend.   

If they don't spend now, they should be tarred and feathered and chased down to Florida. 

 

Give me Burnes/Beiber. 

Burnes/Houck/Giolito/Bello/Crawford  Depth: Criswell/preister/Fitts/Winck.

 

Beiber comes back mid season. So your rotation down the stretch if healthy is

Burnes/Beiber/Houck/Giolito/Bello.

***No prospects were harmed in the making of this roster. 

I'm tired of these Beiber type signings, where the hope lies in a pitcher returning to glory, after a major injury. Many times they say July 1st, and before you know it, it's September. Then again, we ended signing a guy I was not that high on, but who looked about as durable as could be- Gio, and traded on of the most fragile pitchers in the past 5 years- Sale, and look where that got us.

Burnes is legit.

I'd rather see us sign Kikuchi or even Flaherty than Beiber.

I still think trading for a lower cost SP'er, who is younger and has 3-5 years of control is a better way to improve the rotation than signing 2-3 FA pitchers.

I'd like to see us sign Burnes and trade for Crochet or Skubal.

 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm tired of these Beiber type signings, where the hope lies in a pitcher returning to glory, after a major injury. Many times they say July 1st, and before you know it, it's September. Then again, we ended signing a guy I was not that high on, but who looked about as durable as could be- Gio, and traded on of the most fragile pitchers in the past 5 years- Sale, and look where that got us.

Burnes is legit.

I'd rather see us sign Kikuchi or even Flaherty than Beiber.

I still think trading for a lower cost SP'er, who is younger and has 3-5 years of control is a better way to improve the rotation than signing 2-3 FA pitchers.

I'd like to see us sign Burnes and trade for Crochet or Skubal.

 

Bieber type signings? like which ones? Paxton? Paxton worked out fine, might of really helped us if the team as a whole didn't suck last year. 

Also, nobody hates "Beiber" signings, they hate that the Sox do that and nothing else.  They don't call it dumpster diving when it's not in lieu of something else.  

Kind of like when we traded for JBJ a few years ago? some of us here (myself included) loved it because we thought it predated another move....it did not. 

I'd love a Bieber signing, if it was also in conjunction with another real big move (like Burnes/Fried/Trade).  There's a legit chance he comes back to a rotation as a TOTRS starter by mid year next year.  If Houck is better conditioned, you could go into the post season with three aces next year.  All while staying under the cap. 

I'll accept that position Mr. Henry. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Bieber type signings? like which ones? Paxton? Paxton worked out fine, might of really helped us if the team as a whole didn't suck last year. 

Also, nobody hates "Beiber" signings, they hate that the Sox do that and nothing else.  They don't call it dumpster diving when it's not in lieu of something else.  

Kind of like when we traded for JBJ a few years ago? some of us here (myself included) loved it because we thought it predated another move....it did not. 

I'd love a Bieber signing, if it was also in conjunction with another real big move (like Burnes/Fried/Trade).  There's a legit chance he comes back to a rotation as a TOTRS starter by mid year next year.  If Houck is better conditioned, you could go into the post season with three aces next year.  All while staying under the cap. 

I'll accept that position Mr. Henry. 

Hendriks, Fulmer, Paxton, plus a bunch of pitchers coming off long and recent injury histories like Hill, Hill, kluber, Richards, Hill, Nate, Hill, Hill, Hill...

[Larry Cook]

No team will trade a star pitching prospect, but teams will trade secondary pitching prospects for major league or near major league prospects!  It just so happens we have a surplus of those. 
can bres-slow pry one or two of those type pitching prospects away, while bringing in a few short term veteran pitchers out here like severino??  

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hendriks, Fulmer, Paxton, plus a bunch of pitchers coming off long and recent injury histories like Hill, Hill, kluber, Richards, Hill, Nate, Hill, Hill, Hill...

I wouldn’t put those signings in the same stratosphere as Bieber.  How does Beiber compare to Hill? 
 

only similarities are having surgery, people clamored for Eovaldi to come back and he’s had two.

 

whats scares people off is the thought of the Red Sox doing that and only that.  But if the Sox gave Beiber a 1-2 year deal AND signed Burnes or traded for an ACE, no one would be complaining about that.

Or at least I don’t think they would.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I wouldn’t put those signings in the same stratosphere as Bieber.  How does Beiber compare to Hill? 
 

only similarities are having surgery, people clamored for Eovaldi to come back and he’s had two.

 

whats scares people off is the thought of the Red Sox doing that and only that.  But if the Sox gave Beiber a 1-2 year deal AND signed Burnes or traded for an ACE, no one would be complaining about that.

Or at least I don’t think they would.

I'd be thrilled seeing us sign Burnes and Beiber. I'd rather we sign a more reliable SP'er than Beiber, but I'd be fine with it. We could then trade Abreu and DHam for a #3/4 SP'er or a couple really good set-up men.

yes, the idea "scares me," because it and anything similar has less than a 1% chance of happening. We keep expecting it, and only get let down.

[Bellhorn04]

After pitching great up until July, Burnes just had a horrible August.  Have to see if he turns it around in September. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

After pitching great up until July, Burnes just had a horrible August.  Have to see if he turns it around in September. 

The worse he does, the more affordable he becomes to JH. LOL!

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

After pitching great up until July, Burnes just had a horrible August.  Have to see if he turns it around in September. 

7.36 ERA, 4.81 FIP

A little bit of bad luck involved. I can't believe Andrew Bailey screwed up this guy after the trade deadline though! Wow!

[Hugh2]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be thrilled seeing us sign Burnes and Beiber. I'd rather we sign a more reliable SP'er than Beiber, but I'd be fine with it. We could then trade Abreu and DHam for a #3/4 SP'er or a couple really good set-up men.

yes, the idea "scares me," because it and anything similar has less than a 1% chance of happening. We keep expecting it, and only get let down.

But that's just the thing.  We should expect it, we should be dissapointed when it doesn't happen, and we should demand a front office that invests in the team. 

The only teams that constantly pull in more revenue and has a higher valuation is the Yankees and the Dodgers. We are right up there with the big boys.  Letting guys like Betts, Bogaerts walk away, and not addressing the core needs of this team over a decade is not defensable. 

They have had the resources and ability to spend and be a sustainable winner AND make money. 

If the Sox aren't going after premium players, we should be upset.  

Or at least, I'm upset. 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

But that's just the thing.  We should expect it, we should be dissapointed when it doesn't happen, and we should demand a front office that invests in the team. 

The only teams that constantly pull in more revenue and has a higher valuation is the Yankees and the Dodgers. We are right up there with the big boys.  Letting guys like Betts, Bogaerts walk away, and not addressing the core needs of this team over a decade is not defensable. 

They have had the resources and ability to spend and be a sustainable winner AND make money. 

If the Sox aren't going after premium players, we should be upset.  

Or at least, I'm upset. 

Agreed on all points.  But Henry and the front office have clearly demonstrated over the last 5 years that they don't care much about what we expect.  Henry took it to the next level by criticizing, even mocking our expectations. 

[moonslav59]

How do we view Rafaela going forward? He's had the third most PAs of all Sox players, this year, and we certainly know more about him now, than we did in March, but I think there is still enough unknown to wonder. Can he end up better than JBJ, particularly JBJ 6 year stretch of plus-plus play?

He started his career with a .625 OPS from 8/28/23 to 6/4/24 (307 PAs), but are his number since then for real?

.752 in 274 PAs

Should we consider he may end up no better than his career .686 OPS? These days, that is close to the norm, and with his OF defense, maybe that is more than needed to be an overall plus player. Of course, a .750 career OPS would be very nice, but can we expect that?

Do we discount the 32 game mid season stretch where he his .864 and consider the other stretches with more weight: .597 in first 61 games and .677 in his last 37 games?

His 2024 splits are pretty even: .694 v LHPs and .687 v RHPs, so a platoon is not indicated, as of now.

I've been talking a lot about trading Anthony or Abreu for pitching, but that is pretty much based on Rafaela being a fixture in CF for years to come. Maybe, I should reconsider that?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

After pitching great up until July, Burnes just had a horrible August.  Have to see if he turns it around in September. 

If he doesn't, then the Sox should offer him a contract next winter that allows him to opt out if he has a good year, but guarantees to pay him for two years if he misses the entire season on the IL...

... just let most companies in the world who not only won't pay for quality, but will pay twice as much if production sucks or is worthless.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How do we view Rafaela going forward? He's had the third most PAs of all Sox players, this year, and we certainly know more about him now, than we did in March, but I think there is still enough unknown to wonder. Can he end up better than JBJ, particularly JBJ 6 year stretch of plus-plus play?

He started his career with a .625 OPS from 8/28/23 to 6/4/24 (307 PAs), but are his number since then for real?

.752 in 274 PAs

Should we consider he may end up no better than his career .686 OPS? These days, that is close to the norm, and with his OF defense, maybe that is more than needed to be an overall plus player. Of course, a .750 career OPS would be very nice, but can we expect that?

Do we discount the 32 game mid season stretch where he his .864 and consider the other stretches with more weight: .597 in first 61 games and .677 in his last 37 games?

His 2024 splits are pretty even: .694 v LHPs and .687 v RHPs, so a platoon is not indicated, as of now.

I've been talking a lot about trading Anthony or Abreu for pitching, but that is pretty much based on Rafaela being a fixture in CF for years to come. Maybe, I should reconsider that?

Rafaela is staying around the .700 mark for the season.  Isn't that basically what we hoped for from him?

They just have to somehow persuade him that taking a walk isn't evil.

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

But that's just the thing.  We should expect it, we should be dissapointed when it doesn't happen, and we should demand a front office that invests in the team. 

The only teams that constantly pull in more revenue and has a higher valuation is the Yankees and the Dodgers. We are right up there with the big boys.  Letting guys like Betts, Bogaerts walk away, and not addressing the core needs of this team over a decade is not defensable. 

They have had the resources and ability to spend and be a sustainable winner AND make money. 

If the Sox aren't going after premium players, we should be upset.  

Or at least, I'm upset. 

Oh, I get upset, but I will not "expect" something I do not think will happen. Maybe we are just arguing semantics, here. We will both be pissed, if JH does not spend on a top SP'er, this coming winter, or if he waits until the following winter.

I just don't see it happening. He will look at the Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer timetables and think we just need one good, but not great, SP'er: maybe a Nate, Kikuchi or Flaherty type- not Burnes. Then, hemight trade Abreu and scraps for a decent #3/4 SP. Sign a couple mid RP'ers and think that's a good enough snow job for 2025.

Expecting this will not lessen my anger, if it happens.

I also think we should do both things: sign an ace and trade for one. We need two, and no way JH signs 2.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rafaela is staying around the .700 mark for the season.  Isn't that basically what we hoped for from him?

They just have to somehow persuade him that taking a walk isn't evil.

 

I'm ok with him hitting 700 and playing CF. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm ok with him hitting 700 and playing CF. 

I'm more than okay with that. I think he will end up at a career .725-.750 OPS, but that is hard to project.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm more than okay with that. I think he will end up at a career .725-.750 OPS, but that is hard to project.

He has to take more walks.  It's remarkable he's been able to post .689 with his Middlebrooks-on-steroids K to BB ratio.

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

7.36 ERA, 4.81 FIP

A little bit of bad luck involved. I can't believe Andrew Bailey screwed up this guy after the trade deadline though! Wow!

Andrew Bailey - AKA "the Tweakster".  😉

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He has to take more walks.  It's remarkable he's been able to post .689 with his Middlebrooks-on-steroids K to BB ratio.

That .689 may not even be sustainable without increasing OPS: I agree. He's been"working on it" for years, through the Sox system, and he's gotten nowhere.

We may just have to deal with the low OB% and hope he hits enough WBHs and steals a few bases to make up for that.

His CF D is legit, right now.

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He has to take more walks.  It's remarkable he's been able to post .689 with his Middlebrooks-on-steroids K to BB ratio.

He's unable to. Whenever the Sox have stressed that he has had to take walks, his OPS has gone down. He just becomes more passive at the plate and gets into worse counts. This goes back to AA at least. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's unable to. Whenever the Sox have stressed that he has had to take walks, his OPS has gone down. He just becomes more passive at the plate and gets into worse counts. This goes back to AA at least. 

Agree. I think we have to accept he is what he is and hope he can continue to hit some bad pitches for non-outs, often enough.

He does have some power and speed, so that can help hide some of his on base deficiencies. 

[Bellhorn04]

In a way I have to love a guy who's up there swinging all the time.  

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In a way I have to love a guy who's up there swinging all the time.  

I've always felt it helps a line-up to have a variety of approaches to hitting scattered in the starting 9. We've heard some of this about Devers, too. 

[notin]

8 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I wouldn’t put those signings in the same stratosphere as Bieber.  How does Beiber compare to Hill? 
 

only similarities are having surgery, people clamored for Eovaldi to come back and he’s had two.

 

whats scares people off is the thought of the Red Sox doing that and only that.  But if the Sox gave Beiber a 1-2 year deal AND signed Burnes or traded for an ACE, no one would be complaining about that.

Or at least I don’t think they would.

They’re both on the Injured List.

 

Except for Hill…