A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The fat lady may be warming up to sing, but I feel better about the Red Sox future today than I did this time last year 

we are literally two starting pitchers and two relievers away from the playoffs 

C'mon, Larry -- way more than four pitchers have kept our favorite flailures from making the postseason.

I count 19 swings and misses at pitches not even in the strike zone. Some of them were so low that batters had to dig underground to hack at...

[dgalehouse]

On 9/21/2024 at 3:28 PM, Larry Cook said:

The fat lady may be warming up to sing, but I feel better about the Red Sox future today than I did this time last year 

we are literally two starting pitchers and two relievers away from the playoffs 

  Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman ? 

[moonslav59]

20 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

sounds just like an owner in Boston we all know and loathe

Not all.

[moonslav59]

One thing that went okay for the Sox, this year was our middle IF depth. 

While it's easy to point to the poor defense by Rafaela and DHam at SS and EValdez at 2B, DHam played good D at 2B and was not bad at SS. The offense depth did better than expected.

Romy is at a .747 OPS, right now, which beats the MLB average OPS of .721.

DHam slipped to .698 but stole 33 bases in 98 games played.

E Valdez struggled badly, early in the season but hit .813 after June 1st.

These numbers are not great, but certainly better than expected.

[moonslav59]

We won our 78th game of the season, so we can't have a worse record than 2022 and 2023. 

I'm not sure what the "magic number" is, but I'm sure it ain't a pretty one. We still have 3 teams ahead of us and are tied with the Rays  for the 9th and 10th best record in the AL (or 6th worst.)

We are 2 behind SEA with 6 to go.

3 behind MIN, who we needed to sweep.

4 behind KCR and DET.

The fat lady is still singing loudly, but it would be nice to finish over .500, which would mean we'd have to go 4-2.

We play 3 at TOR- day off- and 3 vs TBR, so there is a chance we could go 0-6 and finish in last or tied for last, depending on how TOR finishes.

3rd place and 82-80 would be nice, but it kinda rings hollow after we had a hopeful stretch back before the ASB.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We won our 78th game of the season, so we can't have a worse record than 2022 and 2023. 

I'm not sure what the "magic number" is, but I'm sure it ain't a pretty one. We still have 3 teams ahead of us and are tied with the Rays  for the 9th and 10th best record in the AL (or 6th worst.)

We are 2 behind SEA with 6 to go.

3 behind MIN, who we needed to sweep.

4 behind KCR and DET.

The fat lady is still singing loudly, but it would be nice to finish over .500, which would mean we'd have to go 4-2.

We play 3 at TOR- day off- and 3 vs TBR, so there is a chance we could go 0-6 and finish in last or tied for last, depending on how TOR finishes.

3rd place and 82-80 would be nice, but it kinda rings hollow after we had a hopeful stretch back before the ASB.

once upon a time, i expected the Sox to finish first or second. now, Henry has so lowered expectations that .500 is acceptable. LOL.

[moonslav59]

The Braves may miss the playoffs, so it does appear that good teams can be left out under this playoff format. They are 85-71 and 2 GB AZ and the NYM.

The Braves do play the Mets, next, so they have a chance. They finish with the KCR.  The Mets finish at MIL.

AZ finishes at home vs SFG and SDP. Since the NYM and ATL play each other, if AZ wins out, they are in.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

once upon a time, i expected the Sox to finish first or second. now, Henry has so lowered expectations that .500 is acceptable. LOL.

Nobody thinks .500 is acceptable.

We are all pissed, but we don't have to build strawmen to make a point.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

  Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman ? 

Bob Gibson would also give us that right-handed power bat we're missing!

More World Series home runs than Willie Mays! More career HRs than Trevor Story has for Boston!

But all this is mere hyperbole -- after Sunday -- when the Red Sox won the most games and scored the most runs in the history of yesterday!

[Bellhorn04]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody thinks .500 is acceptable.

We are all pissed, but we don't have to build strawmen to make a point.

 

But you did say "3rd place and 82-80 would be nice" so I understand Duran Is The Man's response there.

I think we absolutely do have lowered expectations now.  

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Braves may miss the playoffs, so it does appear that good teams can be left out under this playoff format. They are 85-71 and 2 GB AZ and the NYM.

Yeah, there's still plenty of randomness.  The NL had better records than the AL this year.  

[Old Red]

49 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But you did say "3rd place and 82-80 would be nice" so I understand Duran Is The Man's response there.

I think we absolutely do have lowered expectations now.  

Anything less than playing in the postseason for the third year in a row is a total unacceptable FAILURE, and nothing nice about it IMO. You’re still sitting home with the White Sox. JH failed. Brez Failed. Cora failed, and the players failed. Total Failure by Baseball Ops from top to bottom.

[notin]

15 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

  Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman ? 

Hardly.  Two of them are dead and the other two are pushing 60…

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One thing that went okay for the Sox, this year was our middle IF depth. 

While it's easy to point to the poor defense by Rafaela and DHam at SS and EValdez at 2B, DHam played good D at 2B and was not bad at SS. The offense depth did better than expected.

Romy is at a .747 OPS, right now, which beats the MLB average OPS of .721.

DHam slipped to .698 but stole 33 bases in 98 games played.

E Valdez struggled badly, early in the season but hit .813 after June 1st.

These numbers are not great, but certainly better than expected.

Valdez has a 469 OPS since the Aug callup. Romy has been solid. DHam has been better than expected. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Anything less than playing in the postseason for the third year in a row is a total unacceptable FAILURE, and nothing nice about it IMO. You’re still sitting home with the White Sox. JH failed. Brez Failed. Cora failed, and the players failed. Total Failure by Baseball Ops from top to bottom.

Sam Kennedy will be the only one to admit it, if the Red Sox can be totally dishonest with you, 

But I'm not going to be truthful with you: when people in power lie all the time, the Nation has zero expectations to believe anything at all... that way, there's no need to worry about worrying.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, there's still plenty of randomness.  The NL had better records than the AL this year.  

It looks that way.

8 teams are on pace for 90 wins: 6 are NL teams (maybe BAL joins the club of 9.)

3 Teams are around a .550 winning %. (BAL, ATL, HOU) One could say 11 good teams.

13 teams are between about .470 and .530 (Call these the mediocre ones.)

5 teams are bad (.365 to .445) 3 in NL

1 team is historically horrific (CWS at .231.) Call it 6 bad teams. (3 AL-3NL)

One could include PIT & TOR at .468 and TEX at .474 to say there are 9 bad teams, 10 mediocre teams and 11 good teams.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sam Kennedy will be the only one to admit it, if the Red Sox can be totally dishonest with you, 

But I'm not going to be truthful with you: when people in power lie all the time, the Nation has zero expectations to believe anything at all... that way, there's no need to worry about worrying.

The key is knowing a lie when you hear it.

I'd say the vast majority of Sox fans know they are lying and think 3 years in a row hovering around or just below .500 is proof of the lies or "sham."

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The key is knowing a lie when you hear it.

I'd say the vast majority of Sox fans know they are lying and think 3 years in a row hovering around or just below .500 is proof of the lies or "sham."

The funny part is that so many on here bought into full throttle last year, and then cried sham, sham, sham when it didn’t happen. Some on here were even excited when the Red Sox met with the Yam Man like they were going to outbid all the big spenders. Wonder what they will buy into this year?

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The funny part is that so many on here bought into full throttle last year, and then cried sham, sham, sham when it didn’t happen. Some on here were even excited when the Red Sox met with the Yam Man like they were going to outbid all the big spenders. Wonder what they will buy into this year?

Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried plus any number of BTV-approved trades, that's what!  

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried plus any number of BTV-approved trades, that's what!  

That sounds about right. 

[Maxbialystock]

Lots of ups and downs this season, including by other teams.   

This season should have been much worse for the Sox.  New CBO Breslow got things off on the wrong foot by dumping Sale, now a candidate for NL Cy Young award, and sending $17M with him to the Braves--and then signing Giolito for $19M/season, after which he went on the season-long IL before spring training ended.  In April the Sox also lost Story at SS, Casas at 1b, and starter/reliever Whitlock.  

However, as moonslav has pointed out, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Devers, Wong, Yoshida, Hamilton, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Houck, Crawford, Bello. and Jansen--all of whom were Red Sox players before the arrival of Breslow--had pretty decent seasons.  Plus Story and Casas both returned (Casas in Aug and Story in Sep) and gave the Sox a boost. 

The season ends six days from today and the Sox are officially not yet eliminated.  

As for next season, the Sox have some pretty good prospects headed this way--or possibly to other teams in return for pitching help.  

In defense of Breslow, he took one of the least enviable CBO jobs in MLB because right now it's hard to read JH's intent.  He does seem to have soured on big ticket starters, and he seems comfortable dumping salary overall, and that runs counter to what seems to be a definite need for, say, two quality starters and two or more quality relievers.  Plus maybe good righty bat or two--over and above O'Neill and Refsnyder.  

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried plus any number of BTV-approved trades, that's what!  

No Roki Sasaki?  Are you just trying to save Henry’s wallet?

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

The funny part is that so many on here bought into full throttle last year, and then cried sham, sham, sham when it didn’t happen. Some on here were even excited when the Red Sox met with the Yam Man like they were going to outbid all the big spenders. Wonder what they will buy into this year?

Again, the “full throttle” thing is on the fans.  Our big problem was a failure to understand that “full throttle” meant “status quo, with a few possible steps in reverse.”   Thankfully Werner set that record straight.

 

This off-season, the Sox office will undoubtedly tell us to prepare for the jump to Ludicrous Speed…

[Bellhorn04]

Some actual news: Devers had MRIs on both shoulders, and they indicate inflammation but no structural damage, no surgery required.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Again, the “full throttle” thing is on the fans.  Our big problem was a failure to understand that “full throttle” meant “status quo, with a few possible steps in reverse.”   Thankfully Werner set that record straight.

 

This off-season, the Sox office will undoubtedly tell us to prepare for the jump to Ludicrous Speed…

If they jump to Ludicrous Speed they may be able to make the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs

[dgalehouse]

The tragic number is now down to three. So, the Sox cannot be eliminated tonight.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Again, the “full throttle” thing is on the fans.  Our big problem was a failure to understand that “full throttle” meant “status quo, with a few possible steps in reverse.”   Thankfully Werner set that record straight.

 

This off-season, the Sox office will undoubtedly tell us to prepare for the jump to Ludicrous Speed…

Werner just said he meant Full THROATLE -- to explain how the Sox choked again... with an epiglottis clogged by a big apple from the Garden of EVEN.

"If the season ended today," spewed Tom, "You couldn't say the 78-78 Red Sox are losers!"

[dgalehouse]

Just for information: There are no longer any play-in games. Tiebreakers are used. I believe the Sox win the tiebreaker with the Royals and Mariners, but lose it with the Tigers and Twins. 

[Larry Cook]

On 9/22/2024 at 5:16 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

C'mon, Larry -- way more than four pitchers have kept our favorite flailures from making the postseason.

I count 19 swings and misses at pitches not even in the strike zone. Some of them were so low that batters had to dig underground to hack at...

I was thinking about for 2025! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I was thinking about for 2025! 

I know you were, just josh winking you. 

So... would you rather they sign Soto for $60 million per year, and trade Duran and Anthony for real pitchers... or keep the homegrowns and spread that same $60 mil budget to ink three legitimate MLB arms?