A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Up until 1969, it was two teams.  Was that really better?  One thing that ruins any sport is when the playoff invites are decided by one team playing an opponent that is clearly tanking or just playing out the string.

Does MLB really have a higher crapshoot factor than the NFL and their single game elimination format?  

Yes, I believe it absolutely does.  Much less crapshoot factor in football.

Tom Brady played in 10 Super Bowls.  Pretty much case closed.  Mahomes isn't doing too badly either.

[dgalehouse]

  The third wild card rule is ridiculous.  Having a sub .500 team be in contention with a week to go should be an embarrassment to MLB.  But the Lords of Baseball are immune to embarrassment so long as the money is rolling in. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

  The third wild card rule is ridiculous.  Having a sub .500 team be in contention with a week to go should be an embarrassment to MLB.  But the Lords of Baseball are immune to embarrassment so long as the money is rolling in. 

So you’d prefer more teams just get eliminated and play out the string of meaningless games?

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Pretty tough to leapfrog 3 teams.

In our case, leapfrogging one is tough enough.

[dgalehouse]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’d prefer more teams just get eliminated and play out the string of meaningless games?

Yes. That's life. Plus, it's not fair to the teams who have earned a spot in the playoffs .

[dgalehouse]

4 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Pretty tough to leapfrog 3 teams.

 Doesn't take much to leapfrog teams that are just laying there. None of them are very good. 

[Larry Cook]

Seems like a lot of our younger guys have crashed into the rookie wall, rafeala, abreau, Wong, and duran! Then we have a lot of hitters injured or playing hurt! 
the lack of depth has definitely hurt us in the back half of 2025! 

[vegasbob]

On 9/18/2024 at 3:19 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But some guys in the front office don't wear robes like judges who can be bribed for life...

From today's Boston Globe: 

Red Sox will not renew the contracts of a handful of longtime instructors and scouts

As part of an overhaul of the team’s pitching development efforts, three longtime pitching coordinators were informed they won’t be back.

Thanks for the article.  It shows a fair number of long term scouts/player development guys( Pre Bloom and some pre DD) getting the opportunity to pursue new hobbies.   

It would be interesting to get Bailey's and Breslow's honest take on what happened to the starters and BP arms after the A-S break this year.   Also, how did the "team" come up with 2 RP pickups , both of whom wound up on the IL ?  Inquiring minds want to know the CoBO's take on this.

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Yes. That's life. Plus, it's not fair to the teams who have earned a spot in the playoffs .

Well, some fans like having more meaningful games. Plus the format was weak with 1 wild card team (unbalanced schedules were too big of a factor) and with 2 wild card teams (single game elimination was just anticlimactic).

I wouldn’t mind if MLB just abandoned divisions and just sent the top teams.  Once they made the divisions and guaranteed a winner got to the postseason, they took chances away from better teams.  We’ve seen teams win 99 games or more and not go, and that’s ridiculous.  Especially since it meant they had to play an unbalanced schedule against even an even better team.

 

Plus - more baseball.  And I like that…

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like a lot of our younger guys have crashed into the rookie wall, rafeala, abreau, Wong, and duran! Then we have a lot of hitters injured or playing hurt! 
the lack of depth has definitely hurt us in the back half of 2025! 

You should check out what the O's offense has done lately! 🤮

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

 Doesn't take much to leapfrog teams that are just laying there. None of them are very good. 

And neither are the Sox.

But they need all three teams to fail, which is asking a lot.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

And neither are the Sox.

But they need all three teams to fail, which is asking a lot.

  I think the Sox have the best team of all the teams in the mix for the third wild card.  Obviously, it has reached the point where they not only have to play well but get a little help also. It's not out of the question. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Thanks for the article.  It shows a fair number of long term scouts/player development guys( Pre Bloom and some pre DD) getting the opportunity to pursue new hobbies.   

"Opportunity to pursue new hobbies" - ouch.  You do have a nice sense of acerbic humor. 

[moonslav59]

If you take current winning % and apply to remaining games, this is how pertinent team records would unfold:

85-77 MIN & DET (84.7-77.3)

82-80 SEA (82.1-79.9)

81-81 BOS

In theory, if we go 10-0, we'd be 86-76 and would be in with no exceptional losing needed from others.

If we go 9-1, we'd be tied with DET and MIN at 85-77, and they bot actually project to a fraction below 85 wins, so it would not be a big stretch to think they both could end up at 84-78.

Now, let's assume they both go 84-78 and SEA goes 82-80 or even better than projected by one game (83-79,) The Sox could go 8-2 and tie 2 others at 84-78.

Note: I am not projecting this of even saying there is a decent chance this happens. I'm just saying we don't need massive collapses by 3 teams, if we go 8-2 or 9-1. Now, going 9-1 is an extreme long shot, IMO. VERY Extreme!

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

  The third wild card rule is ridiculous.  Having a sub .500 team be in contention with a week to go should be an embarrassment to MLB.  But the Lords of Baseball are immune to embarrassment so long as the money is rolling in. 

As of now, no "losing team" has a legitimate change at the playoffs.

In the NL, the SFG are the best sub .500 team and is 105 GB with 9 to play. They are officially eliminated. The Cubs and Cards are 77-75 and 7 back with 10 to play.

In the AL, BOS is at .500 (not "sub," although they might have been when you wrote this) and are 3.5 out with 10 to go. The Rays are 74-78 and are the closest sub .500 to the WC slot. They are 5.5 behind with 10 to go. Officially, they are still in it, but 5 teams are ahead of them, with several teams playing each other, which guarantees one team wins, each game. They can't game on every team, everyday.

I'm with you on the watered down aspect of this set-up. It's good for some fans and cities, and "makes more money" for MLB, but it cheapens the 162 game season.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

  I think the Sox have the best team of all the teams in the mix for the third wild card.  Obviously, it has reached the point where they not only have to play well but get a little help also. It's not out of the question. 

That's debatable

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, notin said:

So you’d prefer more teams just get eliminated and play out the string of meaningless games?

poke that bear

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If you take current winning % and apply to remaining games, this is how pertinent team records would unfold:

85-77 MIN & DET (84.7-77.3)

82-80 SEA (82.1-79.9)

81-81 BOS

In theory, if we go 10-0, we'd be 86-76 and would be in with no exceptional losing needed from others.

If we go 9-1, we'd be tied with DET and MIN at 85-77, and they bot actually project to a fraction below 85 wins, so it would not be a big stretch to think they both could end up at 84-78.

Now, let's assume they both go 84-78 and SEA goes 82-80 or even better than projected by one game (83-79,) The Sox could go 8-2 and tie 2 others at 84-78.

Note: I am not projecting this of even saying there is a decent chance this happens. I'm just saying we don't need massive collapses by 3 teams, if we go 8-2 or 9-1. Now, going 9-1 is an extreme long shot, IMO. VERY Extreme!

 

we should sweep the Twins as they stink right now

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we should sweep the Twins as they stink right now

True, but when Minnesota's bus pulled into Fenway, the passengers had to cover their mouths with hankies...

... like in the recovery scene of a disaster movie.

Buckle up, fans of whiff: Sox batters have struck out 241 more times than the Twins, whose pitchers lead the league in K per 9 IP...

W-L July-August-September: Twins 33-36, Red Faces 32-37. 

 

 

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we should sweep the Twins as they stink right now

Absolute zero chance of that happening. Red Sox have been horrible at home all year and are in a nose dive. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

True, but when Minnesota's bus pulled into Fenway, the passengers had to cover their mouths with hankies...

... like in the recovery scene of a disaster movie.

Buckle up, fans of whiff: Sox batters have struck out 241 more times than the Twins, whose pitchers lead the league in K per 9 IP...

W-L July-August-September: Twins 33-36, Red Faces 32-37. 

 

 

And that includes a really good first half of July for the Red Sox.

Counting the resumed suspended game, the Sox are 23-35 in the last 58.   

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we should sweep the Twins as they stink right now

Their fans are likely saying the same thing about the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

These Red Sox couldn't sweep a pile of leaves right now.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Absolute zero chance of that happening. Red Sox have been horrible at home all year and are in a nose dive. 

And the Sox don't?

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

And the Sox don't?

Nice reading.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox O has a .640 OPS in September.

[moonslav59]

Maybe unnoticed through all this:

Since Aug 27, the Sox are...

4th in SP ERA 2.74 (4th in ERA- at 64)

T 10th in SP FWAR 2.0

Wasted good starts in too many games.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nice reading.

Nothing to do with reading, I accidently replied to the wrong person.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we should sweep the Twins as they stink right now

And the Sox don't?

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Nothing to do with reading, I accidently replied to the wrong person.

With posts like that, you're obviously only here to razz Sox fans, not to add anything to any discussions.  Same old same old.