A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

JH apparently was.

 

But you said, "I can't see..."

 

You mean, "I can't see why JH ...?"

[Randy Red Sox]

DD has been very, very successful where ever he's been, so i'd give him the benefit of the doubt. and i know he would have done better than the idiot Henry hired to replace him.

 

truer words have seldom been spoken

[Old Red]

But you said, "I can't see..."

 

You mean, "I can't see why JH ...?"

 

Word it however you want to, but it doesn’t change the fact that someone put a bug in JH ear to hire Bloom, and the rest is history. Did I ever mention that I could smell a stench in the air the second I heard about Bloom being hired?

[Old Red]

truer words have seldom been spoken

 

On here anyway.

[cp176]

My point is that in my opinion the continued addition of the wilcard(s) Cheapens the impact of the regular season.

[moonslav59]

Word it however you want to, but it doesn’t change the fact that someone put a bug in JH ear to hire Bloom, and the rest is history. Did I ever mention that I could smell a stench in the air the second I heard about Bloom being hired?

 

I didn't make the statement. It's not about what I want. it's about using language to express your ideas and opinions.

 

The statement you made did not seem to match what I think you wanted to say, but I will not ask for clarification. That never turns out well.

[moonslav59]

I could smell a stench in the air the second I heard about Bloom being hired?

 

Based on what?

[moonslav59]

DD has been very, very successful wherever he's been, so i'd give him the benefit of the doubt. and i know he would have done better than the idiot Henry hired to replace him.

 

I think DD would have done a better job, too.

 

My point was about how the budget and forced trade of Betts, which was almost done during DD's tenure, would have made winning in 2020 and beyond very difficult for any GM, including DD.

 

What is DD's success rate on low budget teams?

[Old Red]

Based on what?

 

I have already answered this many times, and Bell has told you that more than once. It started out as just a little foul odor, and it increased to stink, stank, stunk with every year Bloom was here.

[moonslav59]

I have already answered this many times, and Bell has told you that more than once. It started out as just a little foul odor, and it increased to stink, stank, stunk with every year Bloom was here.

 

Including 2021?

[Bellhorn04]

Including 2021?

 

The Outlier.

[sk7326]

I also get the context.

 

When you slash like we did after 2019, and that was after letting Kimbrell and Kelly walk without replacing them, in kind, spending a lot to slowly catch back up is not a winning strategy.

 

We have spent a lot, though, and if JH was just about making money, he'd have spent less. I understand the theory that he needs to spend "just enough" to give fans the appearance of being competitive, so they buy season tickets, game tickets and NESN subscriptions, in order to increase revenues, but I'm not sure he pulled that off.

 

I think the success of 2021 gave JH some leeway to skimp more than he might normally have done.

 

Was Story and Yoshida part of the "scam?" The Devers extensión? Those are expensive scams.

 

I can't see us being highly competitive in 2024 without going up to the second tax line. Maybe 2025, with the loss of Sale might be different.

 

 

I think all of these motives are unfair. Henry wants to win.

 

But I do think there is a moral position about spending which does not jive with what the industry is doing. Hard business rules like "I won't give a 75 year contract to anybody" means you are not competitive for some of the best free agents. I do think he has gotten stuck there.

 

Moreover, I always go back to 2019 - the decision by the organization to NOT look at the team and its core as an opportunity for a multi-title window, and then once you make that decision, not being more proactive in moving Betts.

 

Bloom did a solid job rebuilding the farm - but either he on his own, or the franchise via budgeting completely ignored pitching that would have likely made a different for the 2023 team. Why that is is a mystery.

 

I think about the Sox situation more at a 30,000 foot level. The post 2020 teams are the first ones since Harrington ran the team where there was not great ex ante hope for a 90 win team (the 2021 team was a surprise). At this second 2024 is going to be another one. And that is hard to swallow as one of the big kids on the block.

[moonslav59]

Breslow promises to be "aggressive" in his search for Rotation upgrades.

 

Can we believe him?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-aggressive-rotation-free-agency.html

[moonslav59]

The Outlier.

 

I see it that way, too.

 

The additions Bloom made to 2021 were not as good as the ones before '22 and '23, yet we did much better.

 

Bloom failed to build the 26 man roster into a winning team.

 

I think he did okay to good on building up 40 man roster depth.

 

I think he did very good on building up the farm, but we won't know that for a while more.

 

Even with some budget issues, he did poorly on too many additions, especially the bigger ones.

[Bellhorn04]

Breslow promises to be "aggressive" in his search for Rotation upgrades.

 

Can we believe him?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-aggressive-rotation-free-agency.html

 

Yes, I believe him...for now.

[moonslav59]

I think all of these motives are unfair. Henry wants to win.

 

But I do think there is a moral position about spending which does not jive with what the industry is doing. Hard business rules like "I won't give a 75 year contract to anybody" means you are not competitive for some of the best free agents. I do think he has gotten stuck there.

 

Moreover, I always go back to 2019 - the decision by the organization to NOT look at the team and its core as an opportunity for a multi-title window, and then once you make that decision, not being more proactive in moving Betts.

 

Bloom did a solid job rebuilding the farm - but either he on his own, or the franchise via budgeting completely ignored pitching that would have likely made a different for the 2023 team. Why that is is a mystery.

 

I think about the Sox situation more at a 30,000 foot level. The post 2020 teams are the first ones since Harrington ran the team where there was not great ex ante hope for a 90 win team (the 2021 team was a surprise). At this second 2024 is going to be another one. And that is hard to swallow as one of the big kids on the block.

 

On the pitching: really good pitching is very expensive. The 2020 and 2021 team had so many holes that spending large and long on a very good SP'er would have meant neglecting other high need slots.

 

I get the argument about not adding many promising pitching prospects, but I sympathize with the choice to draft the best chance players, who are usually non pitchers.

 

Bloom did add some pitching: Whitlock, Pivetta, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino, Campbell, Kelly, Robertson along with some decent rentals like Wacha, Hill and Strahm. Not adding an ace-type pitcher left a gaping hole, and I would have preferred he added one, instead of Story and/or Yoshida.

 

The restricted winter spending budgets were a big part of our lack of success, but that does not take Bloom off the hook. He hoarded his top prospects, too much, IMO, but if they turn out being special, maybe someday we'll be thankful he held on to them.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I believe him...for now.

 

The thing is, he could be 100% telling the truth and really believe he will make significant upgrades, but if he keeps going to JH with some big deals to be offered, and JH keeps saying no, he could be wrong.

 

It may not be a lie, but it could be part of a further sham, with him being the set-up stooge.

[sk7326]

Breslow promises to be "aggressive" in his search for Rotation upgrades.

 

Can we believe him?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-aggressive-rotation-free-agency.html

 

Yes. That said, looking at McAdam's reporting - the White Sox wanted Bello as part of a deal for Cease which is hard to stomach. That said, I am receptive to the idea of trading Bello if you feel like his top end is more low end #2/good #3 - and a premium arm is available. But with Cease, the attraction is the contract and betting on peripherals.

 

As far as the FA market goes - I think it's clear that not much is going to happen until Yamamoto moves. The Sox are in on him by all accounts, so I expect news to be very slow there.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing is, he could be 100% telling the truth and really believe he will make significant upgrades, but if he keeps going to JH with some big deals to be offered, and JH keeps saying no, he could be wrong.

 

It may not be a lie, but it could be part of a further sham, with him being the set-up stooge.

 

If JH hired back-to-back stooges, it's Pitchforks and Torches, coming soon.

[harmony]

Breslow promises to be "aggressive" in his search for Rotation upgrades.

 

Can we believe him?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-aggressive-rotation-free-agency.html

Seattle executive Jerry Dipoto promises to be "industrious":

 

 

Which is more reassuring to fans: aggressive or industrious?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The restricted winter spending budgets were a big part of our lack of success, but that does not take Bloom off the hook. He hoarded his top prospects, too much, IMO, but if they turn out being special, maybe someday we'll be thankful he held on to them.

 

... preferably, if they turn out special in Boston, and the Red Sox complete the original plan and hang onto them with longterm contracts while they're young (or -- depending on whether some are actually traded this winter as promised -- their return counterparts are kept around as part of a new core of sustained contenders).

[moonslav59]

Yes. That said, looking at McAdam's reporting - the White Sox wanted Bello as part of a deal for Cease which is hard to stomach. That said, I am receptive to the idea of trading Bello if you feel like his top end is more low end #2/good #3 - and a premium arm is available. But with Cease, the attraction is the contract and betting on peripherals.

 

As far as the FA market goes - I think it's clear that not much is going to happen until Yamamoto moves. The Sox are in on him by all accounts, so I expect news to be very slow there.

 

Trading Bello for Cease would not work for us. If the CWS are demanding pitching in return, I'm not sure we can meet their needs. Crawford and Romero would likely be turned down. Crawford & Yorke?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If JH hired back-to-back stooges, it's Pitchforks and Torches, coming soon.

 

But a lot of older fans actually preferred Curly, when he replaced Shemp...

[moonslav59]

... preferably, if they turn out special in Boston, and the Red Sox complete the original plan and hang onto them with longterm contracts while they're young (or -- depending on whether some are actually traded this winter as promised -- their return counterparts are kept around as part of a new core of sustained contenders).

 

I'm fine with the long term plan. I just wish they'd have been upfront about it. I also wish they'd have not tried the halfway approach. I call it "half ass."

 

Had they just spent 2-3 years in complete rebuild mode, we'd be way better off, right now.

 

Half-ass extends the rebuild.

[mvp 78]

Breslow promises to be "aggressive" in his search for Rotation upgrades.

 

Can we believe him?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-aggressive-rotation-free-agency.html

 

I mean, trust but verify I guess?

[mvp 78]

Yes. That said, looking at McAdam's reporting - the White Sox wanted Bello as part of a deal for Cease which is hard to stomach. That said, I am receptive to the idea of trading Bello if you feel like his top end is more low end #2/good #3 - and a premium arm is available. But with Cease, the attraction is the contract and betting on peripherals.

 

As far as the FA market goes - I think it's clear that not much is going to happen until Yamamoto moves. The Sox are in on him by all accounts, so I expect news to be very slow there.

 

I wouldn't trade Bello for Cease straight up. Cease is fine, but I don't know if he's that much more of an upgrade over Bello, plus the additional control Bello has.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

[mvp 78]

Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

 

As a 4th starter? Who cares?

[moonslav59]

Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

 

I hope that's not the extent of being "aggressive," and I actually like Lugo more than some.

[notin]

As a 4th starter? Who cares?

 

Hopefully as a LHRP, but probably not…