A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Yes we definitely need to revisit those success stories…

 

I didn't say they were successes.

 

I'm just pointing out the last times we went large on a FA SP'er.

 

Perhaps those results is why we don't do it anymore.

 

Our success rate with trades for aces is much better:

 

Pedro

Schilling

Beckett

Sale

Nate

[moonslav59]

It must not be if BTV says so.

 

You think he's a solid investment?

 

There is a reason BTV has him valued close to Duran (who I do think they overvalue.)

 

18 IP in 2023 (4.00 ERA)

107 IP in 2024 (5.47 ERA)

 

2022-2023: 5.26 ERA (4.32 FIP)

1.464 WHIP

3.7 BB/9

 

Career

4.12 ERA (3.50 FIP is not bad)

1.33 WHIP

3.5 BB/9

 

They both have question marks.

[moonslav59]

Oh Montgomery is getting more than 5 years and $100mill. Book it…

 

He will likely get more than $120M/5.

 

I'm thinking maybe $140M/6.

[Old Red]

You think he's a solid investment?

 

There is a reason BTV has him valued close to Duran (who I do think they overvalue.)

 

18 IP in 2023 (4.00 ERA)

107 IP in 2024 (5.47 ERA)

 

2022-2023: 5.26 ERA (4.32 FIP)

1.464 WHIP

3.7 BB/9

 

Career

4.12 ERA (3.50 FIP is not bad)

1.33 WHIP

3.5 BB/9

 

They both have question marks.

 

I’ve been saying Duran has question marks right along. Even though he played better this past year he’s not someone I would pencil in somewhere FT.

[moonslav59]

I’ve been saying Duran has question marks right along. Even though he played better this past year he’s not someone I would pencil in somewhere FT.

 

I meant Trevor Rogers.

 

Our views on Duran are close to the same.

[Old Red]

I meant Trevor Rogers.

 

Our views on Duran are close to the same.

 

I’ll admit I knew nothing about Rogers.

[moonslav59]

I’ll admit I knew nothing about Rogers.

 

He looks like about an equal gamble as Duran, but he's a SP'er with one good year under his belt (2021.)

 

Not only would I trade Duran for Rogers (BTV=25.2), I'd throw in Walter at 4.4 or Mata at 2.3.

 

BTV accepts Duran, Walter & Mata for Rogers & Cabrera.

[Old Red]

He looks like about an equal gamble as Duran, but he's a SP'er with one good year under his belt (2021.)

 

Not only would I trade Duran for Rogers (BTV=25.2), I'd throw in Walter at 4.4 or Mata at 2.3.

 

BTV accepts Duran, Walter & Mata for Rogers & Cabrera.

Don’t the zRed Sox have to do something with Mata this year as he’s out of options?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He will likely get more than $120M/5.

 

I'm thinking maybe $140M/6.

 

If Monty waits until Yama signs with whoever wins a NY bidding war, then a desperate club like Boston will give the big lefty $30M AAV...

 

... which will be worth it to a rebuilding team like the Sox, because no Qualifying Offer attachment means no lost draft pick.

[moonslav59]

Don’t the zRed Sox have to do something with Mata this year as he’s out of options?

 

Yes, he’s out of options. That’s why I threw him in.

[moonslav59]

If Monty waits until Yama signs with whoever wins a NY bidding war, then a desperate club like Boston will give the big lefty $30M AAV...

 

... which will be worth it to a rebuilding team like the Sox, because no Qualifying Offer attachment means no lost draft pick.

 

I do t think Monty makes more than $27M AAV… $28 tops.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do t think Monty makes more than $27M AAV… $28 tops.

 

Even 6 years at $27M AAV is $162M total. Let's assume he is productive for the next four -- say 30 starts per in his age 31, 32, 33 and 34 seasons... before injuries and IL stints inevitably take their toll.

 

That still equates to around $40M a year for the next four -- because that's basically what a team will be paying for... and it will be worth it to them.

[notin]

I don’t play with BTV, which isn’t shocking at all.

 

You don’t need to to answer the question. Which you should have been able to tell…

[Randy Red Sox]

Hope it is with someone else for that deal

[moonslav59]

I do t think Monty makes more than $27M AAV… $28 tops.

 

I meant to type "I don't think..."

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted:

 

Duran & Mata (I'd throw in Walter.)

 

for

 

Rogers and Berti

[notin]

If Monty waits until Yama signs with whoever wins a NY bidding war, then a desperate club like Boston will give the big lefty $30M AAV...

 

... which will be worth it to a rebuilding team like the Sox, because no Qualifying Offer attachment means no lost draft pick.

 

Nothing helps a rebuilding team like adding a 6 year $130-140 mill 30yo pitcher…

[moonslav59]

Nothing helps a rebuilding team like adding a 6 year $130-140 mill 30yo pitcher…

 

At some point a deal like this needs to be done. I don't see any aces in our system.

 

It's been a long time since we traded a top 5 prospect. We haven't signed a big FA pitchers since Price.

 

We may have to do both to get back in the race. We may have to do both, twice.

[moonslav59]

Hope it is with someone else for that deal

 

It looks like Yoshida was an overpay.

It looks like Story was an overpay.

Some think the Devers extension was an overpay.

 

At some point, why not overpay on our position of highest need?

 

I'm not saying Monty is "that guy," but we need to go large and long on a pitcher at some point.

 

I was wrong about Price looking like the type you gamble on, but when you can't develop an ace, and you have 3-4 big need areas, you can't use your farm to trade for 4 guys, without it coming back to bite us in the ass.

 

I think I'd prefer Monty over Snell. Yamo looks like this year's big prize, but I'm not sure he's "that guy," either.

 

I could see us trading for one SP'er and just signing a guy like Seth Lugo, ERod or Wacha. If it's Burnes, at least we'll be better off than we have been since 2018 or 2019, but what will CB cost?

[moonslav59]

How's this plan with a heavy lean to Asia?

 

Sign Yamamoto, Imanaga, Jung Hoo Lee, & Duvall.

Trade Duran & Mata for Rogers & Berti

Trade Dugo for Torres

 

SP: Yamamoto, Imanaga, Bello, Rogers, Sale/Pivetta

RP: Jansen, Martin, Wink, Campbell, Schreiber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock

C: Wong, McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Torres, Berti

SS: Story, Reyes

3B: Devers

LF: Abreu/Refsnyder

CF: Lee, Rafaela

RF: Duvall

DH: Yoshida

 

[Larry Cook]

Nothing helps a rebuilding team like adding a 6 year $130-140 mill 30yo pitcher…

 

I think it helps a ton to sign him. If you can also use that those 6 years to develop homegrown pitching

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it helps a ton to sign him. If you can also use that those 6 years to develop homegrown pitching

 

Agreed. Here's a question for team sports fans who care about a billionaire's budget: is it possible to overpay for stability?

[Bellhorn04]

Nothing helps a rebuilding team like adding a 6 year $130-140 mill 30yo pitcher…

 

You really do you have an aversion to paying free agent starting pitchers significant money.

 

Bloom had the same, it seems.

[notin]

You really do you have an aversion to paying free agent starting pitchers significant money.

 

Bloom had the same, it seems.

 

I think the notion that posting about rebuilding and a draft pick struck me odd.

 

I do see the Sox signing at least one of Montgomery, Snell, Stroman, or Yamamoto. Most likely not Yamamoto.

 

I also see a trade with Miami for another SP.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the notion that posting about rebuilding and a draft pick struck me odd.

 

I do see the Sox signing at least one of Montgomery, Snell, Stroman, or Yamamoto. Most likely not Yamamoto.

 

I also see a trade with Miami for another SP.

 

The term "rebuilding" really gets abused.

[notin]

The term "rebuilding" really gets abused.

 

Agreed.

 

This isn’t the most egregious use of it, but the plan can’t be “just add two starting pitchers. Oh, and then sell off everything that isn’t nailed down.”

 

I mean, at least I was not responding to one of those bizarre posts I see every now and then from other people that will comment about an 88-90 win team that the front office needs to “tear it all dodd we n and start over!”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The term "rebuilding" really gets abused.

 

What do we call it when our team fires its failed CBO and hires a new one to purportedly revamp the starting rotation, retool the entire organization's pitching development, and somehow refurbish the defense?

 

Reports last fall are that some Fenway season-ticket holders refused to attend games and even lost money on Sox-Yankee tickets. If Breslow isn't exactly rebuilding, he was definitely brought on board for some serious resuscitating.

[Bellhorn04]

What do we call it when our team fires its failed CBO and hires a new one to purportedly revamp the starting rotation, retool the entire organization's pitching development, and somehow refurbish the defense?

 

Reports last fall are that some Fenway season-ticket holders refused to attend games and even lost money on Sox-Yankee tickets. If Breslow isn't exactly rebuilding, he was definitely brought on board for some serious resuscitating.

 

The Red Sox roster needs improvements, but not to be rebuilt.

[notin]

What do we call it when our team fires its failed CBO and hires a new one to purportedly revamp the starting rotation, retool the entire organization's pitching development, and somehow refurbish the defense?

 

Reports last fall are that some Fenway season-ticket holders refused to attend games and even lost money on Sox-Yankee tickets. If Breslow isn't exactly rebuilding, he was definitely brought on board for some serious resuscitating.

 

 

A typical day at the office?

 

Isn’t that what every new GM/CBO is supposed to do?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A typical day at the office?

 

Isn’t that what every new GM/CBO is supposed to do?

 

Recruit and develop pitching, and fill the roster with a supporting cast of position players skilled on both sides of the ball that supply the manager with personnel good enough to collaborate on a winning team?

 

It would sure help that cause if the CBO worked for a big market team owned by a billionaire...