A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Seth FULL THROTTLE Lugo

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs projects a Lugo contract at 2/26. This is the same as Clevinger, but less than Wacha in years and AAV.

[moonslav59]

Hopefully as a LHRP, but probably not…

 

I know Lugo does not have a long history as a SP'er, but he did fine as one, last year:

26 GS (146 IP)

3.57 ERA (115 ERA+)

3.83 FIP

1.20 WHIP

 

[moonslav59]

2021-2023 Seth Lugo

134 Games (26 GS, all in 2023)

258 IP

3.56 ERA (113 ERA+)

3.80 FIP

1.211 WHIP

per 9 IP: 9.2 K/2.5 BB

 

Out of 137 pitchers with 250+ IP, Lugo places...

 

28th SIERA (just behind Gallen and ahead of cease & Verlander)

38th in xFIP at 3.67 (just behind Sonny Gray and Nate & ahead of Morton & Cease)

45th in ERA- at 88

45th in K-BB% (just behind Webb and ahead of Cease)

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs projects a Lugo contract at 2/26. This is the same as Clevinger, but less than Wacha in years and AAV.

 

I think he's worth $30/2 or $40/3.

 

I just hope they don't see him as the best SP'er we get.

[mvp 78]

I know Lugo does not have a long history as a SP'er, but he did fine as one, last year:

26 GS (146 IP)

3.57 ERA (115 ERA+)

3.83 FIP

1.20 WHIP

 

 

Seems like a stretch to expect him to repeat it again after leaving the defensively minded Padres.

[mvp 78]

2021-2023 Seth Lugo

134 Games (26 GS, all in 2023)

258 IP

3.56 ERA (113 ERA+)

3.80 FIP

1.211 WHIP

per 9 IP: 9.2 K/2.5 BB

 

Out of 137 pitchers with 250+ IP, Lugo places...

 

28th SIERA (just behind Gallen and ahead of cease & Verlander)

38th in xFIP at 3.67 (just behind Sonny Gray and Nate & ahead of Morton & Cease)

45th in ERA- at 88

45th in K-BB% (just behind Webb and ahead of Cease)

 

The majority of those games aren't as a starter.

 

Third time through the order: 6.82 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 832 OPS.

[dgalehouse]

My point is that in my opinion the continued addition of the wilcard(s) Cheapens the impact of the regular season.

 

Yes. It absolutely does. I do not like it one bit , even if it benefits the Red Sox. But it does bring in more money , so it is not going away anytime soon.

[notin]

But a lot of older fans actually preferred Curly, when he replaced Shemp...

 

And NOBODY liked Curly Joe or (especially) Joe Besser…

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

Alex Cora just spoke for 20 minutes. One notable highlight, he again pointed to Josh Winckowski as a guy who could be a factor in the starting rotation picture. Something to monitor in the spring for sure.

 

The Shemp of the Starting Rotation.

[dgalehouse]

And NOBODY liked Curly Joe or (especially) Joe Besser…

 

If I recall correctly, you used to have one of the stooges as your avatar.

[notin]

My point is that in my opinion the continued addition of the wilcard(s) Cheapens the impact of the regular season.

 

It does, but it also creates other advantages.

 

And division winners still get some advantage…

[mvp 78]

If I recall correctly, you used to have one of the stooges as your avatar.

 

notin had an avatar?

[mvp 78]

It does, but it also creates other advantages.

 

And division winners still get some advantage…

 

Tiny flags outside their ballparks.

[notin]

Tiny flags outside their ballparks.

 

And skipping the first round for two of them, while the third (and worst) one gets to host all 3 games of a best of three.

 

Plus a free taco when someone steals a base…

[notin]

notin had an avatar?

 

I did back at that other website. I had Mo…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And NOBODY liked Curly Joe or (especially) Joe Besser…

 

... or the guy who replaced Duvall in Godfather III...

 

... or the guy who replaced Duvall in the Sox '24 line-up -- who Breslow hasn't even signed yet (but who we already know will swing and miss at low sliders off the plate)...

 

... or just Godfather III.

[notin]

If I recall correctly, you used to have one of the stooges as your avatar.

 

Yes and it wasn’t that whiny ass Curly Joe. Straight up Mo…

[notin]

... or the guy who replaced Duvall in Godfather III...

 

... or the guy who replaced Duvall in the Sox '24 line-up -- who Breslow hasn't even signed yet (but who we already know will swing and miss at low sliders off the plate)...

 

... or just Godfather III.

 

Just wait until Godfather IV, where the Corleone’s teach their puppy to play Bocce. The title is Godfather Meets Air Bud: Get Your Pallino Off My Palleiro.

[moonslav59]

Seems like a stretch to expect him to repeat it again after leaving the defensively minded Padres.

 

1. I never said I expect the same stats. I would expect some regression from him and any pitchers coming here form a better defensive team (or 29 others.)

2. Something close to those numbers would be way better than what we saw, this year.

3. I realize half the numbers I posted were as a RP'er, but that does not take away from the fact that he has pitched real well for 3 seasons.

4. Yes, it's a risk putting him as a SP'er, again, but signing Giolito, Flaherty or some others are risky as hell, too.

 

I like Lugo better than some of the other tier 3 SP'ers available, now.

 

[moonslav59]

Third time through the order: 6.82 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 832 OPS.

 

That's worse than Houck and others on the Sox, but I'm wanting him as my 4th starter or "third best SP'er we add, this winter.)

 

I would not mind Lugo as our #3. if Yamo was our #1.

[moonslav59]

@MacCerullo

Alex Cora just spoke for 20 minutes. One notable highlight, he again pointed to Josh Winckowski as a guy who could be a factor in the starting rotation picture. Something to monitor in the spring for sure.

 

The Shemp of the Starting Rotation.

 

Is he replacing Whitlock, despite the "stretching out" comment?

 

If not, now we have 5 "tweeners:"

Pivetta

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

Winckowski

(Lugo?)

(Murphy?)

[mvp 78]

That's worse than Houck and others on the Sox, but I'm wanting him as my 4th starter or "third best SP'er we add, this winter.)

 

I would not mind Lugo as our #3. if Yamo was our #1.

 

I worry he falls back to earth and he's more of a 4/5.

[mvp 78]

Is he replacing Whitlock, despite the "stretching out" comment?

 

If not, now we have 5 "tweeners:"

Pivetta

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

Winckowski

(Lugo?)

(Murphy?)

 

It's not the route I'd go.

[moonslav59]

I worry he falls back to earth and he's more of a 4/5.

 

I do, too.

 

I also worry about Giolito staying the same.

[moonslav59]

It's not the route I'd go.

 

I wouldn't mind him going a few extra batters, here and there, but we have 4-5 guys that can do that anyway. I like him as the #3 short guy after Jansen and Martin.

[moonslav59]

Sox get the 12th pick in the draft.

 

1. CLE (2% odds)

2. CIN (0.9 %)

3. COL (18.3)

4. OAK (18.3)

5. CWS (14.7)

6. KCR (18.3)

 

The top 3 teams by the odds missed out on the 1 & 2 picks.

 

7. STL

8. LAA

9. PIT

10. WSH

11. DET

12. BOS

13. SFG

14. CHC

15. SEA

16. MIA

17. MIL

18. TBR

19. NYM (dropped 10 due to going over the 3rd tax)

20. TOR

21. MIN

22. BAL

23. LAD

24. SDP (down 10)

25. NYY (down 10)

26. ATL

27. PHI

28. HOU

29. AZ

30. TEX

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

I'm fine with the long term plan. I just wish they'd have been upfront about it. I also wish they'd have not tried the halfway approach. I call it "half ass."

 

Had they just spent 2-3 years in complete rebuild mode, we'd be way better off, right now.

 

Half-ass extends the rebuild.

 

It has worked out that way. That said, if fans look at the Yankees and Dodgers as Red Sox peers and the constant pursuit for more (true in the Dodgers case, less so in the NYY) I can't blame them ... particularly when the best players on the team were in fact not old.

[sk7326]

It does, but it also creates other advantages.

 

And division winners still get some advantage…

 

Yeah. And the chaos of baseball is part of the fun. That said, I think there would be fewer complaints if they realigned to two divisions per league and 4 wildcards. And the idea of a ghost win in the division series is interesting to me.

[sk7326]

I wouldn't trade Bello for Cease straight up. Cease is fine, but I don't know if he's that much more of an upgrade over Bello, plus the additional control Bello has.

 

I wouldn't either - though I wish Bello got more swing and miss.

 

Cease is a bet on peripherals, and I'd like more certainty if I were moving somebody like Bello - who is at worst a mid rotation starter with lots of team control.