A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Or anything for that matter...

 

Fans suck, basically, I agree. And if/when Sale gets injured, there will be plenty of knowing/gloating remarks about that too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fans suck, basically, I agree. And if/when Sale gets injured, there will be plenty of knowing/gloating remarks about that too.

 

Fans are such complainers; the Red Sox give them all these championships, but the moment ownership wants to give them the 16th-worst club for half a decade, the paying customers grieve like they're cult followers of a demagogue.

[moonslav59]

meanwhile Chris Sale has 17 K's in 11 ST innings

 

Criswell has 17 K's, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Criswell has 17 K's, too.

 

Cooper Freakin' Criswell.

[Dipre]

Is Criswell going to be the first Bailey Baller ©?

[Randy Red Sox]

Criswell has 17 K's, too.

 

in case you didn't get my point it was Grissom I was referencing

[moonslav59]

in case you didn't get my point it was Grissom I was referencing

 

Oh, I get it, everytime.

[moonslav59]

Isn't today the Crin opt out day?

[Hugh2]

meanwhile Chris Sale has 17 K's in 11 ST innings

 

Meanwhile

 

Chris Sale 2024 0 IP

Grissom 2024 0 PAs

[mvp 78]

Cooper Freakin' Criswell.

 

A good boy who would never trash a jersey.

[mvp 78]

Isn't today the Crin opt out day?

 

5 days before Opening Day would be tomorrow.

[notin]

Cron and Joely Rodriguez opted out. Good news for Dalbec and Criswell…

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

Alex Cora announces that both Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck will be in the rotation to start the season.

[mvp 78]

Cron and Joely Rodriguez opted out. Good news for Dalbec and Criswell…

 

One more year! One more year!

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

1B CJ Cron and LHP Joely Rodriguez have both triggered their opt-outs as XXB free agents from minor league deals with the Red Sox. The team now has until Sunday afternoon to decide whether to add them to the big league roster or allow them to become free agents.

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

The #RedSox rotation is set: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck.

 

Cooper Criswell will be optioned to Triple-A to stay stretched out as a starter.

[Nick]

+800 OPS

 

Abreu

Duran

Rafaela

Grissom

 

Is that acceptable?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@MacCerullo

The #RedSox rotation is set: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck.

 

Cooper Criswell will be optioned to Triple-A to stay stretched out as a starter.

 

Cecil Cooper Criswell

[notin]

One more year! One more year!

 

Oh you think so?

[Larry Cook]

@MacCerullo

The #RedSox rotation is set: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck.

 

Cooper Criswell will be optioned to Triple-A to stay stretched out as a starter.

 

 

Of course he was, because why should the dumpster fire be limited to only Boston!!!!

[moonslav59]

While Giolito might have been the only SP'er on our staff with a full season of very good pitching under his belt, the others all have some pretty long stretches of very good pitching, so may all hope in our rotation is not lost. That being said, I find it very difficult to have confidence in our top 5, 6 or 7 SP'ers for this season. We simple need way too much to go right to come close to expecting it to happen or to even think there is a really good chance it might happen.

 

Here is some data that might offer some optimism for our rotation:

 

Best stretches or starting pitching...

 

Bello:

First 14 GS of 2023: 3.04 ERA/3.74 FIP or

First 26 GS of 2023: 3.71 ERA/4.19 FIP (Looks like solid #2/3 type numbers)

(Career: 102 ERA+ and 4.37/4.11 in 41 GS)

 

Pivetta

Sept 22, 2020 to June 10, 2021: 14 GS and 3.51/3.42 (18th best fWAR is 1/2 SP)

or first 20 GS as a Red Sox pitcher: 4.06/ 4.10 (solid #3/4 numbers)

First 16 GS of 2022 is perhaps his best stretch: 3.23/3.67 are solid #1/2 numbers

(He still had a 3.98 FIP after 25 GS in 2022.)

2023: not a long stretch, but last 5 GS: 2.37/2.73 are ace numbers. (Counting RP games, from May 25th to the end of 2023: 3.05/3.27 in 97.1 IP, which included 8 GS)

That's three pretty long stretches of doing well to very well in the last 3 seasons. Not bad.

 

Crawford:

June 1 ro Aug 29: 15 GS and 3.71/3.92 (solid #2/3 numbers) or

June 1 to end of 2023 season: 21 GS and 4.20/3.64 (The ERA is solid #3/4, while the FIP is solid #2/3 range.)

 

Houck:

Fisrt 8 GS of career (2020-2021) 1.69/2.31 (WOW!)

2021 season (13 GS and 5 as RP) 3.52/2.58 (3.68 as SP) is solid #2 material

2022 season, only started 4 games, but pitched very well (3.15/3.30 in 60 IP)

 

Whitlock:

Only has 19 scattered career GS at 4.76 with a .791 OPSA.

You have to really reach to find a decent stretch of SP'ing with him. I found one 6 GS stretch in '22, where he did very well in 5 games: 25 IP, 9 ER (3.24 ERA)

He should be in the pen, IMO.

 

Winckowski, Criswell and others have nothing worth mentioning as SP'ers.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Chase Anderson to a MLB deal. (I like some minor league signings better than this!)

 

Since 2020:

40 GS

12 RP games

192 IP

6.19 ERA

5.75 FIP

 

Good grief!

 

[Elktonnick]

Sox sign Chase Anderson to a MLB deal. (I like some minor league signings better than this!)

 

Since 2020:

40 GS

12 RP games

192 IP

6.19 ERA

5.75 FIP

 

Good grief!

 

Yet another dumpster dive signing

[moonslav59]

Yet another dumpster dive signing

 

This dumpster overflow, laying in the alley in a dirty puddle.

[notin]

Yet another dumpster dive signing

 

I don’t mind dumpster dive signings. Some of them do pan out and become quite productive.

 

But they shouldn’t be the only signings…

Edited March 24, 2024 by notin

[a700hitter]

When the #2 pitcher is Pivetta, your starting pitching is built on a foundation of sand.

[moonslav59]

When the #2 pitcher is Pivetta, your starting pitching is built on a foundation of sand.

 

He's been good to really good for half a season or more for 3 straight years.

 

Holding out hope he can put together a full season is likely asking for too much.

 

Crawford may be our true #2, but we'll see.

 

I worry more about our 4 (Houck) and 5 (Whitman) starters.

 

About our 2023 rotation:

All 5 are RHPs. (Wink & Criswell are, too.)

3 of the 5 are homegrown.

4 of the 5 had their first MLB game w the Sox.

We have no FA SP'ers in our rotation for the first time in whatever.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I don’t mind dumpster dive signings. Some of them do pan out and become quite productive.

 

But they shouldn’t be the only signings…

 

Some thought Pivetta was a dumpster dive.

 

We've had some success with dives in recent years:

Schreiber, Bernardino, Wacha, Strahm, Hill, Wink, Whitlock

Renfroe, Duvall, McGuire, Refsnyder

 

The list of failures is pages long.

[moonslav59]

A look at the current 40 man roster by categories:

 

One Year of Control:

Jansen

Martin

Pivetta

O'Neill

 

Two Years of Control:

McGuire

Hendriks

Refsnyder

 

Two to Three Years (Option:)

Giolito

 

Probably not a significant part of our extended future (2026 and beyond:)

Jacques (pre-arb)

DHam (pre-arb)

Heineman (4 yrs)

Dalbec (3 arbs)

R Gonzalez (4 yrs)

Walter (pre-arb)

Mata (pre-arb)

Z Kelly (4 yrs)

 

That's 16 out of 40 players who likely will not be in the system by 2025 or 2026 and almost certainly by 2027, except for maybe Giolito, Kelly and or Walter.

 

We have several up and coming prospects that can replace most of those 16 players, but we will almost certainly add some players from outside.

 

The remaining 24 listed in my order or importance and value (length of control is also a factor)

 

The Core 16 (includes some prospects on the 26:)

1. Devers (9 yrs)

2. Casas (4 yrs)

3. Bello (4 yrs)

4. Story (3/4 yrs w option)

5. Crawford (4 yrs)

6. Grissom (pre-arb)

7. Houck (3 arbs)

8. Whitlock (3/4 yrs w option)

9. Yoshida (4 yrs)

10. Duran (4 arbs)

11. Winckowski (4 yrs)

12. Rafaela (pre-arb)

13. Abreu (pre-arb)

14. Wong (4 yrs)

15. Criswell (pre-arb)

16. Campbell (pre-arb)

 

Borderline/Prospects 8 players/prospects on the 40:

Bernardino (pre-arb)

EValdez (pre-arb)

Slaten (Rule 5: pre-arb)

Weissert (pre-arb)

Wikelman (pre-arb)

Perales (pre-arb)

Reyes (3 arbs)

Murphy (pre-arb)

 

Top Prospects Likely to be on the 40 in the next 1-3 years: (est. 10-20 players)

 

By 2025:

Anthony (Rule 5 2026)

Mayer (Rule 5 2025)

Teel (Rule 2026)

Fitts (Rule 5 eligible)

Yorke (Rule 5)

? Monegro (Rule 5)

? Gambrel, Rosier, Sogard, Castro, Paulino, W Mills, Bastardo, Dobbins, Sena, Troye (Rule 5)

 

By 2026:

Bleis (Rule 5)

Sandlin (Rule 5)

Meidroth (Rule 5)

Hoppe (Rule 5)

?I Coffey, Rogers, E R-C, Ravelo (Rule 5)

 

By 2027:

Joh Garcia

? M Romero, B Brannon, Y Asencio, N Yuten, C Coffey, K Campbell, E Soto, C Early, N Judice

 

[moonslav59]

It looks like the 2 choices remaining for the opening day 26 man roster are:

 

(Assuming Joely is the 7th RP'er and only the 2nd LHP on the 13 man staff.)

 

1B/UT: CJ Cron vs Dalbec (options remaining)

 

8th RP: (soxprospects.com has Chase Anderson, but he can't be ready by then)

Weissert

Luetge

Kelly

 

60 Day IL:

Giolito

Mata

 

10 Day IL:

Grissom

Refsnyder