A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Not every prospect works out. Even great AAA players flame out in MLB. There’s no exact science. We are lucky to have them though. There aren’t many other teams that have a website like that devoted to prospects that is painstakingly detailed. Those guys travel to see every stateside Sox prospect and talk to many people in the industry. They aren’t just scouting boxscores.

 

They’re very good. They used to be overly optimistic, now in think they might be a bit overly pessimistic. Of course, in that line of work, pessimism might be tantamount to credibility…

[notin]

I am not smart enough to run a website. But if I was, I would put out my own rankings on everything. " The Official Galehouse Rankings." They couldn't be any lamer than what we see these days. (So and so is ranked 7th.) Fan, " I would have him 5th or 6th at least."

 

Actually stuff like that is rampant online. Ranking things for the sake of ranking things. The trick is to have a comments section so people can complain…

[moonslav59]

Not every prospect works out. Even great AAA players flame out in MLB. There’s no exact science. We are lucky to have them though. There aren’t many other teams that have a website like that devoted to prospects that is painstakingly detailed. Those guys travel to see every stateside Sox prospect and talk to many people in the industry. They aren’t just scouting boxscores.

 

To some extent, we can look back and see the flaws that were always there for some of our highest ranked past prospects. Pitchers who did not throw over 96 or 97. Pitchers like DHern, with unhittable stuff, but mostly because the pitches were 8 inches off the plate. 1Bmen with power and or high OBP but also high K rates. Guys like Jeter Downs, Swihart and maybe Yorke.

 

Maybe I'm blinded by hope, but I don't see many flaws in Anthony. Teels is a bit unproven. Mayer needs to show he deserves the hype.

 

Here are all the Sox prospects that have been ranked top 3 in the last 9 years (2015-2023):

 

Devers, ERod, Casas, Bello, Beni, Houck, Duran, Moncada (Whitlock was 4th)

Anthony, Teel, Mayer

Rafaela, Bleis

Dalbec, Travis, Yorke, Mata

Groome, Downs, DHern, Chavis, Espinoza, Swihart, Owens

 

The "success rate" might be 50%, when all is said and done from this group.

 

10 years ago, in just 1 season, we saw Betts, Bogey & JBJ in the top 3 (2014.)

[Larry Cook]

If I have to pick the three players I have seen live that have the “wow” factor at the plate, it would be Mayer, bleis and Anthony!

 

Please note, I have not seen any 2023 draft picks live

[notin]

Noted

[mvp 78]

To some extent, we can look back and see the flaws that were always there for some of our highest ranked past prospects. Pitchers who did not throw over 96 or 97. Pitchers like DHern, with unhittable stuff, but mostly because the pitches were 8 inches off the plate. 1Bmen with power and or high OBP but also high K rates. Guys like Jeter Downs, Swihart and maybe Yorke.

 

Maybe I'm blinded by hope, but I don't see many flaws in Anthony. Teels is a bit unproven. Mayer needs to show he deserves the hype.

 

Here are all the Sox prospects that have been ranked top 3 in the last 9 years (2015-2023):

 

Devers, ERod, Casas, Bello, Beni, Houck, Duran, Moncada (Whitlock was 4th)

Anthony, Teel, Mayer

Rafaela, Bleis

Dalbec, Travis, Yorke, Mata

Groome, Downs, DHern, Chavis, Espinoza, Swihart, Owens

 

The "success rate" might be 50%, when all is said and done from this group.

 

10 years ago, in just 1 season, we saw Betts, Bogey & JBJ in the top 3 (2014.)

 

Just because a prospect is ranked in the top 3, doesn't mean the prospect is a great. Chavis was a top prospect at a time the system was in disarray. He has carved out an MLB career which counts for something. Espinoza flamed out due to injury. He was also ranked top 20 by Baseball America, so it's not like SoxProspects was on an island.

[moonslav59]

Take away salary, BTV places these projected dollar values on our current MLB or MLB ready players:

 

(Years of control adds value)

 

323/10 Devers

 

90/5 Bello

87/5 Casas

78/4 Yoshida

60/5 Duran

46/4 Houck

43/5 Crawford

39/2 Giolito (really one year)

37/5 Whitlock

34/4 Story

30/6 Grissom

25/6 Abreu

23/4 Rafaela

20/6 EValdez (seems very high)

19/5 Winckowski

16/1 Pivetta

14/6 Walter (seems very high)

14/1 Jansen

11/1 O'Neill

10/6 Bernardino

8.5/4 Reyes

7.4/1 Martin (seems low)

6.3/2 McGuire

5.7/6 Campbell, Murphy & DHam

4.9/2 Refsnyder

4.4/5 Wong (seems low)

~4/5 R Gonzalez, Weissert, ZKelly

 

Value per year:

32.3 Devers

19.4 Yoshida

11.4 Houck

19.2 Giolito

18.0 Bello

17.5 Casas

13.9 Jansen

12.0 Duran

11.2 O'Neill

8.5 Crawford

8.4 Story

7.5 Whitlock

7.4 Martin

5.0 Grissom

4.1 Abreu

3.9 Winckowski

3.9 Rafaela

3.4 Valdez

3.2 McGuire

2.5 Refsnyder

2.4 Walter

2.2 Wong

2.1 Reyes

1.7 Bernardino

1.0 Campbell, Murphy, DHam

0.8 ZKelly, Weissert, Heineman & RGonzalez

[moonslav59]

Just because a prospect is ranked in the top 3, doesn't mean the prospect is a great. Chavis was a top prospect at a time the system was in disarray. He has carved out an MLB career which counts for something. Espinoza flamed out due to injury. He was also ranked top 20 by Baseball America, so it's not like SoxProspects was on an island.

 

Yes, of course. I did not think it needed to be mentioned that some years had weaker systems than others.

 

That being said, just finding 1 or 2 prospects that were better than who sp's placed in the top 3 does not mean sp's is a bad ranking service. It's not an easy thing to get perfectly right. Here are some better prospects than the "bad ones" that were in the top 3 in the past 9 seasons:

 

2021:

4. Houck > 2. Downs (18. Wong, too)

6. Bello > 3. Yorke (13. Wink, maybe 15. Bleis, 16. Wong)

 

2020:

7. Duran> 3. Mata (8. Houck), also both > 2. Downs (late '20)

 

2019:

5. Houck> 1. Chavis, 2. DHern

maybe 19. Rafaela> 2. Mata, 3. Groome

 

2018:

4. Houck & 13. Beeks> 1. Groome, 2. Chavis, 3. Mata (only 2 in top 20 look okay, now shows how bad the farm was in 2018.)

 

2017:

4. Houck & 10. Beeks> 1. Groome, 2. Chavis, 3. Same Travis (after Devers & Beni graduated)

 

2016:

5. Devers, 3. Margot, 8. Barnes, 10. Kopech> 1. Swihart & 3. Owens (bad year for sp's.)

 

2015:

6. ERod & 8. Barnes> 3. Owens

5. Beni> 3. Espinoza (later in '15)

 

2014:

10. Betts, 18. Devers, 8. Barnes, 9. Workman, 13. Vaz > 3. Owens (later #3 Swihart)

5. ERod>2. Owens

 

I'm not trying to slight sp's. I'm not trying to say some of these farms were better than they were. Some were much worse than others. soxprospects.com does a very good job with its rankings.

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Brez speaks...

 

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/craig-breslow-explains-red-sox-reluctance-to-sign-starters?fbclid=IwAR2TvpFj6vlwXywevmCraSqvu12LLj7NZCbqEIAzU-QpIP61MQM1FqeMoWs

 

We’re trying to build out an infrastructure and trying to understand what we have with guys like Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford."

[moonslav59]

The Brez speaks...

 

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/craig-breslow-explains-red-sox-reluctance-to-sign-starters?fbclid=IwAR2TvpFj6vlwXywevmCraSqvu12LLj7NZCbqEIAzU-QpIP61MQM1FqeMoWs

 

We’re trying to build out an infrastructure and trying to understand what we have with guys like Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford."

 

“Some of those are pursuits that we didn’t line up on, some of them are driven by wanting to give every chance to these young guys to take a step forward,” Breslow said. “I think the blueprint that has been successful here for this ownership group for two decades has been developing homegrown talent and supplementing that talent with not just free agents, but impact, starpower free agents. I think that’s the model we’re going to attempt to replicate given how well it’s worked. But all of those things need to line up, both in terms of player interest and also timelines.

 

“I don’t think I’m saying anything that fans and listeners wouldn't know, which is that we have not had the splashy free agent signing (this offseason),"

[cp176]

“Some of those are pursuits that we didn’t line up on, some of them are driven by wanting to give every chance to these young guys to take a step forward,” Breslow said. “I think the blueprint that has been successful here for this ownership group for two decades has been developing homegrown talent and supplementing that talent with not just free agents, but impact, starpower free agents. I think that’s the model we’re going to attempt to replicate given how well it’s worked. But all of those things need to line up, both in terms of player interest and also timelines.

 

“I don’t think I’m saying anything that fans and listeners wouldn't know, which is that we have not had the splashy free agent signing (this offseason),"

 

I can be a real sucker for sure, but what he said makes sense to me. If they actually commit to playing the younger potential, I'll likely watch at least for a while. I would still like to see a Mongomery signing but not at ace money.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow said. “I think the blueprint that has been successful here for this ownership group for two decades has been developing homegrown talent and supplementing that talent with not just free agents, but impact, starpower free agents. I think that’s the model we’re going to attempt to replicate given how well it’s worked. But all of those things need to line up, both in terms of player interest and also timelines.

 

 

Thanks, Craig. Red Sox fans are glad you dusted off the blueprints that Henry buried in the archives in 2018.

 

The "timelines" are a bit confusing, though. During the Bloom Era, some impact starpower left or was given up -- Betts, Schwarber, Bogaerts, Eovaldi (the best pitcher in baseball in another postseason in '23). If the Sox are rebuilding -- for what, five years now -- then maybe the timing wasn't right to resign any or all of them.

 

But then, how or why did timelines line up with inking Story or Yoshida or extending Devers? Especially when none of these damaged goods, or good-bat/no-glove guys were/are as good as those we didn't keep...

[moonslav59]

Grissom is likely to miss opening day...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/vaughn-grissom-likely-to-miss-opening-day-due-to-groin-strain.html

[moonslav59]

I can be a real sucker for sure, but what he said makes sense to me. If they actually commit to playing the younger potential, I'll likely watch at least for a while. I would still like to see a Mongomery signing but not at ace money.

 

At least this sounded like thruth-telling without a lot of fluff and diversions.

 

The thing is, it's kind of admitting they want to experiment on some guys we have in the system, already, to see what we have and what we need going forward.

 

It sounds like they know this is a punt season, unless everything works out.

[Bellhorn04]

At least this sounded like thruth-telling without a lot of fluff and diversions.

 

The thing is, it's kind of admitting they want to experiment on some guys we have in the system, already, to see what we have and what we need going forward.

 

It sounds like they know this is a punt season, unless everything works out.

 

To me it just sounds like the "don't worry, we'll spend again when the time's right" message they've been feeding us for months.

[moonslav59]

To me it just sounds like the "don't worry, we'll spend again when the time's right" message they've been feeding us for months.

 

"Full throttle" sounded like spending money, now.

 

This statement, at least, explained what the current plan was, in detail, and gave a reason why they were not going to spend large on pitching, now.

 

Yes, it says they are "punting," but they never really came out and said it, so detailed and clearly, IMO, as this did.

 

They previously hinted that the here and now mattered and was a priority.

[mvp 78]

To me it just sounds like the "don't worry, we'll spend again when the time's right" message they've been feeding us for months.

 

Don’t you believe it.

[Duran Is The Man]

"Full throttle" sounded like spending money, now.

 

This statement, at least, explained what the current plan was, in detail, and gave a reason why they were not going to spend large on pitching, now.

 

Yes, it says they are "punting," but they never really came out and said it, so detailed and clearly, IMO, as this did.

 

They previously hinted that the here and now mattered and was a priority.

 

punting for 5, 6, maybe 7 years. great plan Henry.

[notin]

Don’t you believe it.

 

I believe them.

 

I just think they will have an interpretation about when the “time is right” that I might not agree with…

[Tedballgame]

Red Sox trade oft injured Chis Sale for the now injured Vaughn Grissom. Seems about right.

[notin]

Red Sox trade oft injured Chis Sale for the now injured Vaughn Grissom. Seems about right.

 

Well, they extended Sale when he was battling with injuries. Grissom’s injury is just bad luck right now and really doesn’t make that trade look worse…

[dgalehouse]

punting for 5, 6, maybe 7 years. great plan Henry.

 

You have to admit, not a lot of teams punt on first down though. A very unique strategy.

[jad]

Well, they extended Sale when he was battling with injuries. Grissom’s injury is just bad luck right now and really doesn’t make that trade look worse…

 

Are you suggesting that Grissom has the same up-side as Sale??

[notin]

Are you suggesting that Grissom has the same up-side as Sale??

 

 

Go back and re-read that post and please underline or boldface the part where I talk about upside for either player…

[dgalehouse]

Is Grissom going to follow in the footsteps of Story ? Another guy who calls in sick half the time ?

[moonslav59]

punting for 5, 6, maybe 7 years. great plan Henry.

 

I doubt it goes to 7, even if you count 2021 as a "punt."

[Duran Is The Man]

You have to admit, not a lot of teams punt on first down though. A very unique strategy.

 

 

truly remarkable turnaround for a once very successful organization. nice job Henry!

[Duran Is The Man]

I doubt it goes to 7, even if you count 2021 as a "punt."

 

i doubted it would go to 4 but with the way the clowns are running this shitshow now, nothing surprises me.

[moonslav59]

i doubted it would go to 4 but with the way the clowns are running this shitshow now, nothing surprises me.

 

I'd be surprised, but it does seem possible.

 

We've still been spending a lot of money. Since 2019, we are a top 6-8 spending team. Since 2022, we are a top 9-11 spending team. It's not like we tried to totally tank, like other teams have. The many last place finishes suck, but we haven't really been a bottom 10 team, very often. Not that that should be the measuring stick.

 

I'm hopeful we can reach glory, again, sometime, soon. We have some very promising young players and soon-to-be young players joining the 26 and 40. We have a good chance at being very good, again, and soon, if we can just get the pitching staff jacked up, somehow.

[jad]

Go back and re-read that post and please underline or boldface the part where I talk about upside for either player…

 

I have no idea what you are saying half the time. But I do know that you are never wrong, even when you say contradictory things. That's why I asked.