A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Breslow had twenty of his analysts in a hotel for a two week meeting on pitching. After much discussion, breakout groups, flip charts , brainstorming and power point presentations ; they came to the groundbreaking and revolutionary conclusion that velocity was important. ( Of course, Timmy from Little League days could have told them that.). Next month's topic: Does movement on a pitch make it tougher to hit ?

 

Did they emphasize the importance of pitcher W-L record?

[moonslav59]

I don't care how good analytics people are, there's still going to be a lot of randomness in the results, because that's just the way baseball is.

 

Indeed. The idea is that analytics might slightly improve the odds on making the right choices on roster decisions, over just using scouts and rudimentary stats.

[dgalehouse]

Did they emphasize the importance of pitcher W-L record?

 

No. They thought that wins were way overrated. They are stat nerds.

[moonslav59]

Breslow had twenty of his analysts in a hotel for a two week meeting on pitching. After much discussion, breakout groups, flip charts , brainstorming and power point presentations ; they came to the groundbreaking and revolutionary conclusion that velocity was important. ( Of course, Timmy from Little League days could have told them that.). Next month's topic: Does movement on a pitch make it tougher to hit ?

 

I think this might be oversimplifying what conclusions they came to. I think velocity and movement have always been important factors in evaluating pitcher value. I think they realized, we had been undervaluing velocity, in recent years, and determined it needed to be moved up on the list of several factors.

 

I happen to agree.

[moonslav59]

Did they emphasize the importance of pitcher W-L record?

 

Yes, HS and college W-L records should be the first thing scouts and analysts look at.

[notin]

I think this might be oversimplifying what conclusions they came to. I think velocity and movement have always been important factors in evaluating pitcher value. I think they realized, we had been undervaluing velocity, in recent years, and determined it needed to be moved up on the list of several factors.

 

I happen to agree.

 

He might not have embraced the green text just yet…

[notin]

I think too many fans think the MLB teams have this internal division between the Old School Baseballers and the Analytics team, you like how they portrayed it in the 2011 Moneyball, which, it turns out, fictionalized some of the internal workings of the A’s solely for the purpose of creating more Hollywood drama that is so important in making movies, particularly ones in the Drama genre.

 

All those internal fights - fictionalized. It turns out Beane never fired head scout Grady Fuson in an argument over analytics. (Fuson embraced them but left Oakland voluntarily to pursue an opportunity with Texas.). Also, Beane also didn’t fight with Howe, especially over his contract either since 1) Howe did have an agent who would do that, and 2) that wasn’t even Howe’s option year.

 

 

The Sox have more than Breslow pushing analytics. The team thought they were too heavy after the back-to-back last place finishes in 2014 and 2015. But after 2017, they interviewed Alex Cora, and he bluntly told them they weren’t doing anywhere near enough…

[dgalehouse]

I think too many fans think the MLB teams have this internal division between the Old School Baseballers and the Analytics team, you like how they portrayed it in the 2011 Moneyball, which, it turns out, fictionalized some of the internal workings of the A’s solely for the purpose of creating more Hollywood drama that is so important in making movies, particularly ones in the Drama genre.

 

All those internal fights - fictionalized. It turns out Beane never fired head scout Grady Fuson in an argument over analytics. (Fuson embraced them but left Oakland voluntarily to pursue an opportunity with Texas.). Also, Beane also didn’t fight with Howe, especially over his contract either since 1) Howe did have an agent who would do that, and 2) that wasn’t even Howe’s option year.

 

 

The Sox have more than Breslow pushing analytics. The team thought they were too heavy after the back-to-back last place finishes in 2014 and 2015. But after 2017, they interviewed Alex Cora, and he bluntly told them they weren’t doing anywhere near enough…

 

Are you telling me that Hollywood movies do not always tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth ? My last illusion is now shattered.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't care how good analytics people are, there's still going to be a lot of randomness in the results, because that's just the way baseball is.

 

It wasn't random when qualified voters picked the AL Cy Young winners in 1968 and 1990 -- they just voted for the two guys with the most wins in the past half century.

 

But in retrospect (and because the '24 Red Sox have zero aces again), this is up for further debate: who was the "best" AL pitcher in those years: 31-winner Denny McLain or Luis Tiant in '68, 27-game winner Bob Welch or Roger Clemens in '90?

[notin]

It wasn't random when qualified voters picked the AL Cy Young winners in 1968 and 1990 -- they just voted for the two guys with the most wins in the past half century.

 

But in retrospect (and because the '24 Red Sox have zero aces again), this is up for further debate: who was the "best" AL pitcher in those years: 31-winner Denny McLain or Luis Tiant in '68, 27-game winner Bob Welch or Roger Clemens in '90?

 

 

What do the 2024 Red Sox have to do with Cy Young voting logic from 1968 to 1990?

[notin]

It wasn't random when qualified voters picked the AL Cy Young winners in 1968 and 1990 -- they just voted for the two guys with the most wins in the past half century.

 

But in retrospect (and because the '24 Red Sox have zero aces again), this is up for further debate: who was the "best" AL pitcher in those years: 31-winner Denny McLain or Luis Tiant in '68, 27-game winner Bob Welch or Roger Clemens in '90?

 

Using bWAR, Tiant and McLain WS a close race. But that same method has Cy Young runner up Clemens clearly dominating over the winner Welch with values of 10.4 and 2.9. Clemens lead the league in multiple categories; Welch only lead in wins. Clemens was clearly the better pitcher. Welch just pitched on a better team.

 

Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in 2005 was another such award mishap…

Edited March 3, 2024 by notin

[notin]

No. They thought that wins were way overrated. They are stat nerds.

 

… who don’t think attributing pitcher credit for a team effort makes sense…

[Nick]

Switching up a bit.

 

Brez sees tightening of budget going forward despite what is being said publicly.

 

Immediate reaction would be to improve what we have through analytics.

 

Think how much money we'd save if our rotation was Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Kutter and Winck for 2025?

 

Pivetta is a goner. Giolito with a reasonable season will opt out.

 

That starting five in 2025 will cost the Sox less than $10M.

 

That maybe what Henry is thinking.

 

While at it, I'd look to get rid of Story and Yoshida even having to eat half of their contracts.

 

Basically you'd have Devers $29M and not much else.

 

Hell you can get the payroll down to $75M.

Edited March 3, 2024 by Nick

[Nick]

I'm thinking the Sox would lose about $80M at the gate if attendance drops by 10, 000 fans.

 

My guess is that won't happen. Too many fans will always love the 'ballpark experience".

 

Not sure about the local tv revenues.

 

Anyone here have any idea how my mlb subsription of about $160 is split?

 

What if I pick the $130 option just to watch the Sox? Does more money flow to the Sox?

[moonslav59]

Switching up a bit.

 

Brez sees tightening of budget going forward despite what is being said publicly.

 

Immediate reaction would be to improve what we have through analytics.

 

Think how much money we'd save if our rotation was Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Kutter and Winck for 2025?

 

Pivetta is a goner. Giolito with a reasonable season will opt out.

 

That starting five in 2025 will cost the Sox less than $10M.

 

That maybe what Henry is thinking.

 

While at it, I'd look to get rid of Story and Yoshida even having to eat half of their contracts.

 

Basically you'd have Devers $29M and not much else.

 

Hell you can get the payroll down to $75M.

 

I really don't think the plan is to keep lowering the payroll, but who knows?

 

I'd like to see us extend Pivetta.

 

I'm not sure the plan is to have this year's SP'ers fill all 5 slots in 2025. It might be more about finding out which 3-4 will be run back in '25, as we replace Gio and add 1-2 more.

 

It does look pretty nice to have just about every one of the everyday positions covered for the next 5 years, unless someone really flops. Even then, we seem to have 2 at each slot with promise.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Using bWAR, Tiant and McLain WS a close race. But that same method has Cy Young runner up Clemens clearly dominating over the winner Welch with values of 10.4 and 2.9. Clemens lead the league in multiple categories; Welch only lead in wins. Clemens was clearly the better pitcher. Welch just pitched on a better team.

 

Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in 2005 was another such award mishap…

 

bb-ref told us never to compare players within one or two WAR wins -- so that stat is too close to call for Tiant and McLain in '68 (fWAR is even closer). So... the MVP or the ERA leader? The world champ who led the league in 9 pitching categories and was second in 7 others, or the third-place ace who led in 12 categories? McLain is the only 31-game winner in the past 90+ years, but Tiant won 21 and posted a great 1.60 ERA… though only about one-third of a run better than Denny’s 1.96.

 

I give the edge to McLain for his league-leading Innings Pitched: 336… which was 78 more than Tiant's. That's basically 9 more complete games, which Denny also led in, with Luis second -- 28 to 19. Some may argue McLain pitched for a great team… but others may counter that a great pitcher can make a good team great. Otherwise, why has the world of baseball credited Ws for over a century to the only player – in the center of the diamond -- who touches the ball and initiates every play while he’s in the game?

 

Agreed with the choice of Clemens in '90, a great pitcher who made a good team finish first. I'd also argue Dave Stewart and Eck were better than Welch on the A's alone that year.

 

The connection to discussions about the '24 Red Sox all winter is that a great pitcher (not necessarily one with a great W-L past) can make any team better, even a doormat. And one guy can boost a mediocre team to a postseason. We just need to find one: buy one, take one, make one...

[moonslav59]

The connection to discussions about the '24 Red Sox all winter is that a great pitcher (not necessarily one with a great W-L past) can make any team better, even a doormat. And one guy can boost a mediocre team to a postseason. We just need to find one: buy one, take one, make one...

 

I think we all agree on this.

 

It seems like a no brainer to try and buy one to improve the odds on having 1-2 that step up as stoppers.

 

We seem to be loaded with decent 3-5 slot SP'ers...maybe even too many.

 

It's so clear we need 1's and 2's.

[mvp 78]

Switching up a bit.

 

Brez sees tightening of budget going forward despite what is being said publicly.

 

Immediate reaction would be to improve what we have through analytics.

 

Think how much money we'd save if our rotation was Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Kutter and Winck for 2025?

 

Pivetta is a goner. Giolito with a reasonable season will opt out.

 

That starting five in 2025 will cost the Sox less than $10M.

 

That maybe what Henry is thinking.

 

While at it, I'd look to get rid of Story and Yoshida even having to eat half of their contracts.

 

Basically you'd have Devers $29M and not much else.

 

Hell you can get the payroll down to $75M.

 

Grim. I don’t think Winck is a SP. i’m not sold on Whitlock staying healthy either.

[moonslav59]

Grim. I don’t think Winck is a SP. i’m not sold on Whitlock staying healthy either.

 

If that is really the plan- not only avoiding replacing Gio & Pivetta, but not adding anyone at all, then the sham is greater than I ever imagined.

 

There would be open revolt, and it would be staggering in numbers.

[notin]

Grim. I don’t think Winck is a SP. i’m not sold on Whitlock staying healthy either.

 

Still hopeful on Montgomery. I mean, he’s gotta pitch somewhere…

[moonslav59]

Still hopeful on Montgomery. I mean, he’s gotta pitch somewhere…

 

I actually like our odds, the longer this drags out.

[Bellhorn04]

I actually like our odds, the longer this drags out.

 

The only thing is, they may have already decided long ago that it isn't happening and the plan is to go all in on Houck and Whitlock as starters.

[moonslav59]

The only thing is, they may have already decided long ago that it isn't happening and the plan is to go all in on Houck and Whitlock as starters.

 

That does seem like the biggest stumbling block, but I do think there is room for both.

 

Do any of us really expect Crawford, Whitlock and Houck to start 32 games and go 170+ IP? I seriously doubt any would do this, even if 100% healthy and open slots for all.

 

There will surely be injuries, and if not, we could trade Giolito or Pivetta, at the deadline, if there is no room for 6-7 SP'ers who are all looking good.

 

GS

31 Monty

31 Giolito

30 Bello

25 Crawford

23 Whitlock

22 Houck

 

Anyone gets hurt, and we may need Wink to start some.

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Still hopeful on Montgomery. I mean, he’s gotta pitch somewhere…

 

All I see are the same rumors of: Sox still in contact, other teams see Sox as having inside edge. I think another team still swipes him at the end.

[moonslav59]

Starting off the season on the left coast will be a challenge. It seems like coming out of the gate doing well, often sets the tone for the season and helps build confidence. After the road trip, the schedule does look a little easier for 3-4 weeks...

 

@ SEA 3

@OAK 3

Day Off

@LAA 3

Day Off

BAL 3

LAA 3

CLE 4

@PIT 3

Day Off

@CLE 3

CHC 3

Day Off

SFG 3

@MIN 3

Day Off

@ ATL 2

Day Off

WSH 3

 

Then some tough games... 10 gms out of 16 v TBR & BAL.

[notin]

All I see are the same rumors of: Sox still in contact, other teams see Sox as having inside edge. I think another team still swipes him at the end.

 

He will probably wait until the losers of the Snell sweepstakes decide to get involved…

[mvp 78]

That does seem like the biggest stumbling block, but I do think there is room for both.

 

Do any of us really expect Crawford, Whitlock and Houck to start 32 games and go 170+ IP? I seriously doubt any would do this, even if 100% healthy and open slots for all.

 

There will surely be injuries, and if not, we could trade Giolito or Pivetta, at the deadline, if there is no room for 6-7 SP'ers who are all looking good.

 

GS

31 Monty

31 Giolito

30 Bello

25 Crawford

23 Whitlock

22 Houck

 

Anyone gets hurt, and we may need Wink to start some.

 

 

 

 

 

I think you'd see Walter, Murphy or Criswell before Winckowski. I don't understand the push to make him a starter.

[moonslav59]

Starting off the season on the left coast will be a challenge. It seems like coming out of the gate doing well, often sets the tone for the season and helps build confidence. After the road trip, the schedule does look a little easier for 3-4 weeks...

 

@ SEA 3

@OAK 3

Day Off

@LAA 3

Day Off

BAL 3

LAA 3

CLE 4

@PIT 3

Day Off

@CLE 3

CHC 3

Day Off

SFG 3

@MIN 3

Day Off

@ ATL 2

Day Off

WSH 3

 

Then some tough games... 10 gms out of 16 v TBR & BAL.

 

I really hate the day off, 2 game series, then day off crap. It does not help the rotation as much as having 5-6 games between days off.

[mvp 78]

He will probably wait until the losers of the Snell sweepstakes decide to get involved…

 

I think we're at the $1 scratch-off phase.

[moonslav59]

I think you'd see Walter, Murphy or Criswell before Winckowski. I don't understand the push to make him a starter.

 

I don't either.

 

It's like they realize they have a shortage of decent SP'ers in their system, so they want to throw them all against the wall to see which 4-5 will stick.

 

In the process, they may end up messing up some guys who have seemingly found a comfortable nitche as long men or 1-2 IP set-up guys.

 

One really good reason to sign Monty is to avoid doing this, but the Sox FO likely views this as a reason not to sign Monty.