A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Bad pen?

 

Bad D?

 

Bad O?

 

Bad luck?

 

A mix of the 2-4?

 

Dumb "win" rules?

 

I’m going with the top three as the most likely reasons…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The era of openers necessitates a change in how wins are awarded to pitchers on victorious teams.

 

How many starters even finish five innings with a lead these days? Maybe a stat man can dig that up, but I'd wager the number is less than half from 50 years ago (maybe even the turn of this century).

 

But even ERA can be considered unreliable, based on several questionable hits awarded by official scorers on grounders just to Raffy Devers last season.

 

The most valuable stat for modern pitchers seems to be innings pitched... though even that is often out a moundsman's control -- from Dice K to Bearclaw.

[Bellhorn04]

The era of openers necessitates a change in how wins are awarded to pitchers on victorious teams.

 

How many starters even finish five innings with a lead these days? Maybe a stat man can dig that up, but I'd wager the number is less than half from 50 years ago (maybe even the turn of this century).

 

But even ERA can be considered unreliable, based on several questionable hits awarded by official scorers on grounders just to Raffy Devers last season.

 

The most valuable stat for modern pitchers seems to be innings pitched... though even that is often out a moundsman's control -- from Dice K to Bearclaw.

 

Innings pitched

OPSa

K/BB ratio

HR rate

WHIP

ERA+ or - (over large samples)

[cp176]

One "realistic view" for this season is that Chris Sale is pitching for someone else. When he hits 97 with that fastball, he is unhittable. I hope very much that he can stay healthy because when he is healthy, he is one of the best ever. I don't care what uniform he wears. I just want to watch him pitch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Innings pitched

OPSa

K/BB ratio

HR rate

WHIP

ERA+ or - (over large samples)

 

I actually like OPS better to judge pitchers than batters.

 

I want my best hitters hitting and sluggers slugging -- not being overly selective and taking many bases on balls -- because walks can only ever advance baserunners one base at a time. Devers walking all year won't help much if all we have behind him is Story striking out.

 

Of course, we don't want guys flailing out of the zone, but we also know certain hand-eye specialists can consistently blast neck-high fastballs out of the park (see Pedroia, Dustin).

[moonslav59]

Innings pitched

OPSa

K/BB ratio

HR rate

WHIP

ERA+ or - (over large samples)

 

My order could look like this:

 

OPS Against (which is hard to find, except season by season)

 

ERA- (or ERA+)

 

IP

 

xFIP

 

WHIP

 

K% v BB% (better than K/9 and BB/9, since good pitchers face less batters per 9 IP)

 

I'm not big on HR/9 rates, but it can be something used as a tie-breaker. I value IP per GS more highly.

 

[moonslav59]

I actually like OPS better to judge pitchers than batters.

 

Agreed.

 

I'd like to see a fairer number than OBP + SLG, since OBP is more valuable. Something like this:

 

(3 x OBP) + (2 x SLG)/ 5

 

Cue the BA Traditionalist Brigade.

[Hugh2]

How ironic is it going to be if Chris Sale pitched like a top ten pitcher 3 years in a row for Atlanta????

[Bellhorn04]

How ironic is it going to be if Chris Sale pitched like a top ten pitcher 3 years in a row for Atlanta????

 

It would be very "That's baseball for ya".

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How ironic is it going to be if Chris Sale pitched like a top ten pitcher 3 years in a row for Atlanta????

 

Nothing Sale does on the mound should surprise anyone -- but it will be very ironic if this over-30 slinger ever stays healthy for his first full season since... when... 2017?

[mvp 78]

My order goes like this:

G

IP

W

L

R

ER

SO

BB

GS

CG

SHO

SV

ERA

 

If that's good enough for that back of a 1987 Topps card, it's good enough for me!

[mvp 78]

How ironic is it going to be if Chris Sale pitched like a top ten pitcher 3 years in a row for Atlanta????

 

He's only 35 this year. There's still time for a second TJS.

[Bellhorn04]

My order goes like this:

G

IP

W

L

R

ER

SO

BB

GS

CG

SHO

SV

ERA

 

If that's good enough for that back of a 1987 Topps card, it's good enough for me!

 

Coincidentally enough, 1987 was the classic Nolie 8-16, 2.76 year!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My order goes like this:

G

IP

W

L

R

ER

SO

BB

GS

CG

SHO

SV

ERA

 

If that's good enough for that back of a 1987 Topps card, it's good enough for me!

 

How cardboard of you. But I have to say, I liked them better when they were horizontal, than on my radiation screen.

[Randy Red Sox]

One "realistic view" for this season is that Chris Sale is pitching for someone else. When he hits 97 with that fastball, he is unhittable. I hope very much that he can stay healthy because when he is healthy, he is one of the best ever. I don't care what uniform he wears. I just want to watch him pitch.

 

it will be interesting to see who has the better season Sale or Giloto

[Bellhorn04]

it will be interesting to see who has the better season Sale or Giloto

 

There will be plenty of watching the out of town scoreboard, that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

it will be interesting to see who has the better season Sale or Giloto

 

...and Grissom v Sale.

[cp176]

yes it will

[moonslav59]

It's very early, and the sample sizes are tiny, but here are some numbers:

 

IP H ER BB K

2 0 0 1 3 Bello

2 0 0 0 1 Winckowski

2 0 0 1 1 Giolito

2 0 0 0 0 Houck

2 3 1 0 1 Crawford

 

2 2 0 2 1 Campbell

2 1 0 0 2 Hagenman

2 3 0 0 2 Murphy

2 1 0 0 2 Slaten

2 1 0 2 3 Weissert

2 2 0 1 2 Denlinger

 

2 1 1 0 2 Whitlock

 

(Not all pitchers listed, just those doing well or okay.)

 

Highest OPS (6+ AB)

1.875 Sogard

1.167 Reyes

1.125 Kolozsvary

1.111 Contreras

.944 Rafaela

.875 Westbrook

[Larry Cook]

Rafeala never met a pitch he would not swing at!!!!

[moonslav59]

Rafeala never met a pitch he would not swing at!!!!

 

Or hit!!!!

[Randy Red Sox]

...and Grissom v Sale.

 

yes that too for sure

[Bellhorn04]

it's very early, and the sample sizes are tiny, but here are some numbers:

 

Ip h er bb k

2 0 0 1 3 bello

2 0 0 0 1 winckowski

2 0 0 1 1 giolito

2 0 0 0 0 houck

2 3 1 0 1 crawford

 

2 2 0 2 1 campbell

2 1 0 0 2 hagenman

2 3 0 0 2 murphy

2 1 0 0 2 slaten

2 1 0 2 3 weissert

2 2 0 1 2 denlinger

 

2 1 1 0 2 whitlock

 

(not all pitchers listed, just those doing well or okay.)

 

highest ops (6+ ab)

1.875 sogard

1.167 reyes

1.125 kolozsvary

1.111 contreras

.944 rafaela

.875 westbrook

 

Never too early for samples. :D

[Bellhorn04]

yes that too for sure

 

Yes, we all be buzzardin'.

[moonslav59]

Do not be surprised if Grissom has a very good year.

[Bellhorn04]

Do not be surprised if Grissom has a very good year.

 

I won't. Nor will I be shocked if he struggles.

[moonslav59]

I won't. Nor will I be shocked if he struggles.

 

Agreed, and same with Sale and or Gio.

[moonslav59]

We have a lot of players who have some very good upside potential. Many have already proven they can be very good, in recent years or for long parts of recent years. Some are based on speculation, minor league numbers of scouts' projections.

 

Of course, many of these same players are capable of doing blah or poorly, and have recent sample sizes of neutral to highly negative stretches.

 

In my case, whenever spring comes around, I tend to get more optimistic and see the bright side as perhaps being more probable than it really is. Maybe, part of what makes baseball the best sport of all is that it starts in spring.

 

I've showed how Bello, Gio, Crawford, Pivetta and Houck have all had good to great full seasons or 20+ GS stretches, in the last 2-3 years. That should offer some hope that some sort of confluence of good things happening can occur.

 

Our pen has enough talent and promise to be both good and somewhat deep.

 

Our defense is a bit more speculative, but I have to think Grissom at 2B should be better than the worst in MLB in 2023. A healthy Story is 100 times better than Kike & Co. Yoshida at DH, most games, should improve LF defense, and the more Rafaela plays CF over Duran, the better chance our CF D improves. The rest seems about even.

 

Our offense is a little speculative, too, especially Grissom, Rafaela, Abreu and second full seasons from Casas & Wong. Story is question mark, as are O'Neill & Yoshida. I'm still waiting for Devers to put together a career year as he enters his prime. I like our offense, this year, as much or more than last year, despite the loss of Turner and Duvall. (Dugo has a 100 OPS+, so I think his loss on O has been overblown.)

[bkzwhitestrican]

For anyone interested in the Yankees fan site's take on the Sox's 2024:

 

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2024/2/29/24084685/mlb-season-preview-2024-boston-red-sox-devers-yoshida-story-casas-giolito-jansen

[cp176]

Do not be surprised if Grissom has a very good year.

 

If they both have good years, who would you rather have playing for you?