A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Not to be an ass, but how many games separate the Sox from the Jays based on these numbers?

 

Per fWAR or per real life?

 

TOR - Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi, Manoah

BOS - Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck

 

About 7 games just based on the rotation? If the Sox had the Jays' rotation they'd be a 87 win team probably.

[mvp 78]

So, the Yanks will beat the Sox 5 more times with Snell?

 

Snell will use 30 of his 130 innings to face the Sox this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per fWAR or per real life?

 

TOR - Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi, Manoah

BOS - Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck

 

About 7 games just based on the rotation? If the Sox had the Jays' rotation they'd be a 87 win team probably.

 

Then that would be 97 wins, if the Sox also had the Jays' "normal" defense (Toronto's Defensive Efficiency was exactly league average in '23).

[moonslav59]

I think Giolito-Bello-Pivetta-Crawford is a better front for than many want to accept. Granted, always room for improvement, especially since the only names being bandied about for the #5 spot are names much better at anchoring the bullpen.

 

And to double down on that misstep, no names are mentioned to backfill the bullpen. That (lack of a) plan failed last year and in 2022.

 

“Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss…”

 

We still have so many "ifs," but spring seems to bring out the bright side in me.

 

I'm feeling pretty good about Houc as the #5, too. I'm not sure, if it was the facial surgery or something else, but the guy has some very nasty stuff- maybe some of the best on the staff.

 

The part about having extreme difficulty with batters the third time through is well-documented, but in these days, SP'ers going just 4 to 5 IP is not the big drag it used to be. Our pen should be able to handle that, as long as Wink and Whit stay there, and the other 4 starters aren't going 4 IP, too.

 

I'm not going to go back and copy and paste the post that showed how all 5 of these guys have had long and solid stretches, as SP'ers, in recent years. Gio has had full seasons of success; Pivetta has had several 20-24 GS streaks of very solid pitching, Crawford's was just last year, Bello's, too and Houck had his own a couple years back.

 

I think the pen will be fine, but only if our starting 5 rotation gives us 140-145 GS, minimum. That is likely asking way too much, but these guys are young or not too old. They are approaching prime or in prime (Gio,) right now.

 

When I look at the list of 33 pitchers used in 2023 (27 over 6 IP, 23 over 11 IP and 20 over 21 IP,) I can't help but think there is a lot of room for improvement, if we don't have to keep searching for capable #7 and #8's in the pen.

 

The ages of Jansen and Marting are worrisome, and jansen has already had some issues, but I may be in a minority thinking our pen is close to top 10 in MLB. If we could add monty, I'd be almost certain it is top 10, by adding Houck to it.

 

A lot of the pen's success will, IMO, depend on how deep we have to go into the farm. Although I think our farm shows better depth in the pen, than previous years, I think we need to stay healthy and not have to cycle through 8-12 guys to find our 7's and 8's.

 

Jansen & martin look solid as the 9th inning guys.

Whitlock & Wink can go 2, maybe 3 IP, if needed.

Bernardino & Campbell are not proven pen arms, and if they need replacing, early, it could be a tough year for our pen.

Our current 7 & 8 guys look to be Slaten (Rule 5) and maybe Mata (out of options but may start on the IL.) These two are highly questionable. I get it. The chances they start the revolving door going, early, is pretty high, but call me a homer, if you wish: I like the depth beyond these 8, unless we start going to # and beyond:

 

Weissert

Murphy

Z Kelly

Joely

Fitts (SP)

Criswell (SP)

Walter (SP)

Gambrell (SP)

 

Then, it gets real dicey...

Guerrero

Politi

Booser

Jacques

Hagenman

Luetge

Hoppe

Benitez

Olivares

Wikelman, Van Belle, Dobbins, Penrod, Song

 

[moonslav59]

Are you high?

 

Not since last summer.

[mvp 78]

Then that would be 97 wins, if the Sox also had the Jays' "normal" defense (Toronto's Defensive Efficiency was exactly league average in '23).

 

I was just plopping the Jays rotation into the Sox 40 man.

[moonslav59]

I was just plopping the Jays rotation into the Sox 40 man.

 

How good would they have been with the Sox D, last year?

[mvp 78]

Weissert

Murphy

Z Kelly

Joely

Fitts (SP)

Criswell (SP)

Walter (SP)

Gambrell (SP)

 

Then, it gets real dicey...

Guerrero

Politi

Booser

Jacques

Hagenman

Luetge

Hoppe

Benitez

Olivares

Wikelman, Van Belle, Dobbins, Penrod, Song

 

 

I underlined the guys who have a chance to provide something to the pen this season. I'll talk about them from least likely to most likely. Luetge has been effective before ('21-'22), but is coming to the end of his career. It's likely that this is one of his final stops. Hagenman struggled a little after leaving the Dodgers org, but it's not surprising given WOO's catching options. I think he has a bit of a bounceback season and is a prime candidate to be a guy that gets a bump from the new pitching philosophy. Chris Murphy is a decent enough arm and will probably get similar playing time to last year. He's not really a top tier guy. Joely is a perfectly fine LH reliever. He's great if you can stash him in AAA for depth. Weissert is just a tick up from Joely IMO. Zack Kelly was pretty good when healthy. He's not a big k guy, but induces weak contact and doesn't walk guys. Can be a solid 7th inning reliever. If he's back to being healthy, he's the best of the guys I underlined IMO.

 

Guerrero is interesting, but I think he's not ready. He walks way too many guys right now and I'd like to see him succeed at AAA for a whole year before adding him to the 40 man. German was a high octane arm at one point, but needs a lot of work. He's just a one pitch pitcher right now due to command issues. I don't think Walter is worth a 40 man spot. I really don't know anything about Criswell. There's an outside chance we see Fitts this season, but more likely it'd be Gambrell.

[mvp 78]

How good would they have been with the Sox D, last year?

 

The Jays rotation on the Sox? Sox would have been like an 85 win team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How good would they have been with the Sox D, last year?

 

This is a good question, and yesterday I was thinking the same thing about Giolito this year -- with this season's Sox D...

 

... he looked ok because he gave up some weak contact to infielders... luckily,. Devers made a really nice play on a slow roller and great throw for the out.

[moonslav59]

I underlined the guys who have a chance to provide something to the pen this season. I'll talk about them from least likely to most likely. Luetge has been effective before ('21-'22), but is coming to the end of his career. It's likely that this is one of his final stops. Hagenman struggled a little after leaving the Dodgers org, but it's not surprising given WOO's catching options. I think he has a bit of a bounceback season and is a prime candidate to be a guy that gets a bump from the new pitching philosophy. Chris Murphy is a decent enough arm and will probably get similar playing time to last year. He's not really a top tier guy. Joely is a perfectly fine LH reliever. He's great if you can stash him in AAA for depth. Weissert is just a tick up from Joely IMO. Zack Kelly was pretty good when healthy. He's not a big k guy, but induces weak contact and doesn't walk guys. Can be a solid 7th inning reliever. If he's back to being healthy, he's the best of the guys I underlined IMO.

 

Guerrero is interesting, but I think he's not ready. He walks way too many guys right now and I'd like to see him succeed at AAA for a whole year before adding him to the 40 man. German was a high octane arm at one point, but needs a lot of work. He's just a one pitch pitcher right now due to command issues. I don't think Walter is worth a 40 man spot. I really don't know anything about Criswell. There's an outside chance we see Fitts this season, but more likely it'd be Gambrell.

 

I think how many of these guys we have to cycle through will be telling number for how good our pen will be.

 

For every new pitcher we use, if means someone failed or got hurt.

 

If we can keep the amount of RP'ers to a minimum, it will most likely mean we found the 12-16 who do okay, and did not need replacing.

 

Instead of 7 guys over 40 IP, make it 8-9.

 

Instead of 7 guys from 20 IP to 39 IP, make it 8-9.

 

Instead of another 9 guys from 6 IP to 19 IP, make it 2-4.

 

Instead of using 25 RP'ers with 2.1 or more IP, like in 2023, use 16-20.

 

[mvp 78]

Last year, SFG led MLB with 9 relievers with 40+ innings, NYY were second with 8 relievers.

[Nick]

Simple act of signing Montgomery would repair the feelings of Sox fans about John Henry. It's not like he's 35, he's only 31. Come on John.

 

No one will remember how wealthy you are when you die. You will go down in history as that guy who rather hang on to his money than to win championships.

[Duran Is The Man]

Simple act of signing Montgomery would repair the feelings of Sox fans about John Henry. It's not like he's 35, he's only 31. Come on John.

 

No one will remember how wealthy you are when you die. You will go down in history as that guy who rather hang on to his money and finish last than to win championships.

 

 

fixt.

[Nick]

fixt.

 

thanks...that's what meant

[moonslav59]

Simple act of signing Montgomery would repair the feelings of Sox fans about John Henry. It's not like he's 35, he's only 31. Come on John.

 

No one will remember how wealthy you are when you die. You will go down in history as that guy who rather hang on to his money than to win championships.

 

I agree, and I also think if the plan is to go for it in 2025 or 2026, there is a good chance Monty will still be plus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree, and I also think if the plan is to go for it in 2025 or 2026, there is a good chance Monty will still be plus.

 

I'd like to think part of that plus will include eating plenty of innings to save other arms and keep a lot of relievers effective enough for some postseason runs.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to think part of that plus will include eating plenty of innings to save other arms and keep a lot of relievers effective enough for some postseason runs.

 

He's been a horse, the last 3 years. He's not old. He's not getting the 7 years Price got.

 

We need to get over Price.

[Nick]

He's been a horse, the last 3 years. He's not old. He's not getting the 7 years Price got.

 

We need to get over Price.

 

Monty, Gio, Nick, Bello and Kutter looks pretty solid while jettisoning Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski to the pen.

[moonslav59]

Monty, Gio, Nick, Bello and Kutter looks pretty solid while jettisoning Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski to the pen.

 

Having those 3 pen guys that can all go 2-3 IP, if needed would be a huge boost to the other 5 RP'ers expected to go just 1 IP per appearance.

[Randy Red Sox]

Monty, Gio, Nick, Bello and Kutter looks pretty solid while jettisoning Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski to the pen.

 

yeah let's plan the parade--NOT

[moonslav59]

yeah let's plan the parade--NOT

 

Maybe no parade, but a funner season to watch.

[Randy Red Sox]

like maybe 85 wins rather than 80

[notin]

like maybe 85 wins rather than 80

 

You’re already at 80? Even before Montgomery? Welcome to Optimism!

[moonslav59]

like maybe 85 wins rather than 80

 

I'll have a one man parade, if we hit 85.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'll have a one man parade, if we hit 85.

 

I predicted 78 the past three years (and was way wrong in '21).

 

If they sign Monty, I'd like to pick the over this season.

 

If they don't and get off to a bad start, then Brez winds up trading anyone over-30, they'll sink way under.

[notin]

I'll have a one man parade, if we hit 85.

 

If the Sox sign Montgomery, I’m going 85+. Granted injuries could derail that, and do so significantly…

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox sign Montgomery, I’m going 85+. Granted injuries could derail that, and do so significantly…

 

So a 10% variance seems reasonable no?

[moonslav59]

If the Sox sign Montgomery, I’m going 85+. Granted injuries could derail that, and do so significantly…

 

Sounds about right, for now.

 

85-86 w Monty

83-84 w Clevinger

80-81 w no additions and no major injuries

[FredLynn]

I'll have a one man parade, if we hit 85.

 

I'll join you if we don't finish in last place again in the ALE. All the other teams in our division are better than we are. Finishing last is getting very very old