A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Obviously Shreiber trade was to make room for both Mata and Slaten to make the team.

 

I like the move. It's pretty obvious what the road map is going forward.

We received team controlled pitcher in exchange who is a hard thrower and has some upside.

 

Bres is trading out mediocre pitchers for younger talent. We can survive Schreiber's departure.

 

I'm not so sure he was or is mediocre. He's been out top pen fWAR guy from '22-'23, granted some have been here just 1 year or started a lot:

 

1.9 Schreiber (110 IP)

1.5 Martin (51)

1.1 Jansen (45)

0.9 Whitlock (59) & Pivetta (56)

0.8 Wink (86)

0.6 Brasier (83)

0.4 Bernardino (42), Murphy (48) & Houck (43)

 

How about stats not dependent on IP?

 

xFIP

2.90 Martin

2.97 Whitlock

3.21 Pivetta

3.50 Houck

3.55 Schreiber

3.78 Bernardino

3.90 Wink

4.07 Murphy

4.61 Jansen

 

K%

35 Pivetta

29 Whitlock

28 Schreiber

27 Jansen

 

ERA-

23 Martin

66 Schreiber & Houck

68 Pivetta

70 Wink

 

Maybe they know something about his injury and the longer term effects.

[Larry Cook]

I'm not so sure he was or is mediocre. He's been out top pen fWAR guy from '22-'23, granted some have been here just 1 year or started a lot:

 

1.9 Schreiber (110 IP)

1.5 Martin (51)

1.1 Jansen (45)

0.9 Whitlock (59) & Pivetta (56)

0.8 Wink (86)

0.6 Brasier (83)

0.4 Bernardino (42), Murphy (48) & Houck (43)

 

How about stats not dependent on IP?

 

xFIP

2.90 Martin

2.97 Whitlock

3.21 Pivetta

3.50 Houck

3.55 Schreiber

3.78 Bernardino

3.90 Wink

4.07 Murphy

4.61 Jansen

 

K%

35 Pivetta

29 Whitlock

28 Schreiber

27 Jansen

 

ERA-

23 Martin

66 Schreiber & Houck

68 Pivetta

70 Wink

 

Maybe they know something about his injury and the longer term effects.

 

You think the injury will change scheiber’s outlook going forward?

[moonslav59]

You think the injury will change scheiber’s outlook going forward?

 

He did not look nearly as good in 2022, after coming off the 60 day IL.

 

KC must think he still has his stuff, but then again, maybe they did not like Sandlin, all that much.

 

I liked Schreiber. He is a rags to riches story, and one of the few gems in the rough Bloom added.

 

I'm not sure what the expectations are, going forward. I would think he's expected to do better than Mata, Slaten, Campbell and maybe even Bernardino.

[Nick]

I'm not so sure he was or is mediocre. He's been out top pen fWAR guy from '22-'23, granted some have been here just 1 year or started a lot:

 

1.9 Schreiber (110 IP)

1.5 Martin (51)

1.1 Jansen (45)

0.9 Whitlock (59) & Pivetta (56)

0.8 Wink (86)

0.6 Brasier (83)

0.4 Bernardino (42), Murphy (48) & Houck (43)

 

How about stats not dependent on IP?

 

xFIP

2.90 Martin

2.97 Whitlock

3.21 Pivetta

3.50 Houck

3.55 Schreiber

3.78 Bernardino

3.90 Wink

4.07 Murphy

4.61 Jansen

 

K%

35 Pivetta

29 Whitlock

28 Schreiber

27 Jansen

 

ERA-

23 Martin

66 Schreiber & Houck

68 Pivetta

70 Wink

 

Maybe they know something about his injury and the longer term effects.

 

Mediocre = Average to me.

 

To me he is just an average pitcher from what I saw last year.

 

Majority of pen guys are erratic from year to to year. Sometimes during the season. Brasier as an example.

 

Let's hope Mata has higher ceiling than Shreiber. You and I were all over Mata before he got hurt.

Edited February 18, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Mediocre = Average to me.

 

To me he is just an average pitcher from what I saw last year.

 

Majority of pen guys are erratic from year to to year. Sometimes during the season. Brasier as an example.

 

Let's hope Mata has higher ceiling than Shreiber. You and I were all over Mata before he got hurt.

 

He was better than dozens of RPers we used since 2022. Only 3-4 were better. If he’s mediocre, at least he’s better than most we’ve had.

[Nick]

He was better than dozens of RPers we used since 2022. Only 3-4 were better. If he’s mediocre, at least he’s better than most we’ve had.

 

You are probably right.

 

I am just putting myself inside Brez's head as to why we made that trade.

 

1 opening a spot for two guys that either make the team or gets thrown off Sox island

 

2 couple with disparity in player controlled years.

 

My guess is Sox likes possible ceiling of the two players that have to make the team or get released.

 

The kid received is cherry on top.

Edited February 18, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

You are probably right.

 

I am just putting myself inside Brez's head as to why we made that trade.

 

1 opening a spot for two guys that either make the team or gets thrown off Sox island

 

2 couple with disparity in player controlled years.

 

My guess is Sox likes possible ceiling of the two players that have to make the team or get released.

 

The kid received is cherry on top.

 

I know nothing about the guy we got, except he was #7 on their farm. That's pretty good.

 

I'm not against the trade, but I don't like losing Schreiber. I understand some of his metrics showed Schreiber was a bit lucky in '22 and lost it in '23, after the injury, so I'm hopeful Brez knows what he's doing.

 

Personally, I think Schreiber was top end of mediocre, at worst, and was better than most of what we had. With Houck and Crawford looking like Rotation pieces, I'd have kept him, but 2024 looks like a punt, so the trade makes sense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know nothing about the guy we got, except he was #7 on their farm. That's pretty good.

 

I'm not against the trade, but I don't like losing Schreiber. I understand some of his metrics showed Schreiber was a bit lucky in '22 and lost it in '23, after the injury, so I'm hopeful Brez knows what he's doing.

 

Personally, I think Schreiber was top end of mediocre, at worst, and was better than most of what we had. With Houck and Crawford looking like Rotation pieces, I'd have kept him, but 2024 looks like a punt, so the trade makes sense.

 

Best-case scenario for Boston: Sandlin turns into David Cone, who had just made the majors and was traded to the Mets at age 24 in Spring Training 1987 for basically a back-up catcher... to Kansas City.

 

There has to be a few longtime Royals fans worrying the same thing this morning... "Our top pitching prospect -- for a journeyman set-up guy?"

[notin]

Best-case scenario for Boston: Sandlin turns into David Cone, who had just made the majors and was traded to the Mets at age 24 in Spring Training 1987 for basically a back-up catcher... to Kansas City.

 

There has to be a few longtime Royals fans worrying the same thing this morning... "Our top pitching prospect -- for a journeyman set-up guy?"

 

Was he really there to pitching prospect?

 

The Athletic had him as their fourth.

 

Prospects 1500 had him fourth also. But that site puts him in tier four for prospects, which is basically sleepers..

[Duran Is The Man]

I know nothing about the guy we got, except he was #7 on their farm. That's pretty good.

 

I'm not against the trade, but I don't like losing Schreiber. I understand some of his metrics showed Schreiber was a bit lucky in '22 and lost it in '23, after the injury, so I'm hopeful Brez knows what he's doing.

 

Personally, I think Schreiber was top end of mediocre, at worst, and was better than most of what we had. With Houck and Crawford looking like Rotation pieces, I'd have kept him, but 2024 looks like a punt, so the trade makes sense.

 

Face it, Moon, every year is a punt and has been since Bloom was hired. Ownership has no interest in competing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Was he really there to pitching prospect?

 

The Athletic had him as their fourth.

 

Prospects 1500 had him fourth also. But that site puts him in tier four for prospects, which is basically sleepers..

 

I read one KC prospect site last night that had him rated #2 overall last summer...

[Bellhorn04]

The consensus seems to be that Breslow has done a fine job with the trades so far.

 

Now stop f***ing around and sign Montgomery.

[Duran Is The Man]

Was he really there to pitching prospect?

 

The Athletic had him as their fourth.

 

Prospects 1500 had him fourth also. But that site puts him in tier four for prospects, which is basically sleepers..

 

He hasn’t even played AA yet and hasn’t done much in A ball. I’m not even remotely sold on this “suspect”.

[Larry Cook]

Face it, Moon, every year is a punt and has been since Bloom was hired. Ownership has no interest in competing.

 

Seems to me ownership no longer wants to be year to year high payroll winners.

 

Starting with cherrington, they want the gm’s to try to build something sustainable through the farm system, but ownership does not seem to understand that is a huge lengthy process and it is very difficult to stay competitive while building a sustainable farm system. Add in our complete inability to develop starting pitchers and you see why we roll through GM’s very quickly!

 

I liked hang’em Chaim’s ability to find hitters. But he seemed to crack under the stress of trying to stay competitive.

 

I like brez-slow’s trades so far. But seems to me, he has decided to completely forego winning to finish building the farm

 

ownership appears to have put us on a 200 million dollar per year budget. This means the farm has to produce a lot of position players and bullpen arms because we need budget for the rotation!

 

Right now in 2024 we are not there yet!

[Hugh2]

Seems to me ownership no longer wants to be year to year high payroll winners.

 

Starting with cherrington, they want the gm’s to try to build something sustainable through the farm system, but ownership does not seem to understand that is a huge lengthy process and it is very difficult to stay competitive while building a sustainable farm system. Add in our complete inability to develop starting pitchers and you see why we roll through GM’s very quickly!

 

I liked hang’em Chaim’s ability to find hitters. But he seemed to crack under the stress of trying to stay competitive.

 

I like brez-slow’s trades so far. But seems to me, he has decided to completely forego winning to finish building the farm

 

ownership appears to have put us on a 200 million dollar per year budget. This means the farm has to produce a lot of position players and bullpen arms because we need budget for the rotation!

 

Right now in 2024 we are not there yet!

 

Are we really making up nick names already? This team hasn’t even played one game yet and we have already moved into aligning ourselves as supporters or haters of Breslow?

 

What did we expect him to do in his first offseason? Sign Yamamoto or Ohtani? Or is it the other free agents that the other 29 teams haven’t signed either?

 

It’s painstakingly obvious ownership has given him a budget to operate under. And all trades he’s made with the Sale trade aside as brought in what this organization significantly lacks. In the absence of ownership telling him to go big after free agents the only other thing he can do is draft, and he hasn’t even had one yet.

 

Look, it’s a free country, but calling him “Bres-slow” at this point just seems a little ridiculous.

[Elktonnick]

Are we really making up nick names already? This team hasn’t even played one game yet and we have already moved into aligning ourselves as supporters or haters of Breslow?

 

What did we expect him to do in his first offseason? Sign Yamamoto or Ohtani? Or is it the other free agents that the other 29 teams haven’t signed either?

 

It’s painstakingly obvious ownership has given him a budget to operate under. And all trades he’s made with the Sale trade aside as brought in what this organization significantly lacks. In the absence of ownership telling him to go big after free agents the only other thing he can do is draft, and he hasn’t even had one yet.

 

Look, it’s a free country, but calling him “Bres-slow” at this point just seems a little ridiculous.

 

I certainly agree. Ownership is not focused on the Red Sox. Their priorities are clearly elsewhere. Breslow like Bloom is being forced to work within tight fiscal restrictions. Hopefully he will do better than Bloom did. If not Henry will fire him in three to four years and find another fall guy, assuming he can find someone willing to take the job.

[Bellhorn04]

Are we really making up nick names already? This team hasn’t even played one game yet and we have already moved into aligning ourselves as supporters or haters of Breslow?

 

What did we expect him to do in his first offseason? Sign Yamamoto or Ohtani? Or is it the other free agents that the other 29 teams haven’t signed either?

 

It’s painstakingly obvious ownership has given him a budget to operate under. And all trades he’s made with the Sale trade aside as brought in what this organization significantly lacks. In the absence of ownership telling him to go big after free agents the only other thing he can do is draft, and he hasn’t even had one yet.

 

Look, it’s a free country, but calling him “Bres-slow” at this point just seems a little ridiculous.

 

Larry has the nickname ready as soon as we get the announcement.

 

"Hang 'em Chaim". It took me a while to realize the alliteration worked there.

[Bellhorn04]

IMHO it's going to be yet another PR nightmare for the Sox FO if Montgomery signs elsewhere on a reasonable deal.

[Nick]

The consensus seems to be that Breslow has done a fine job with the trades so far.

 

Now stop f***ing around and sign Montgomery.

Knowing we likely will have 4 players at $75 M under contract for 2025, (assuming Giolito bolts) it's baffling we are not spending any money.

 

My conclusion is they simply don't want to.

[notin]

IMHO it's going to be yet another PR nightmare for the Sox FO if Montgomery signs elsewhere on a reasonable deal.

 

In that case they really should sign Bauer. Sure he’s a PR nightmare as well, but with a positive side. Like a serial killer who is also a clown got kids parties…

[Bellhorn04]

In that case they really should sign Bauer. Sure he’s a PR nightmare as well, but with a positive side. Like a serial killer who is also a clown got kids parties…

 

At this point I'm wondering if there's a little quiet agreement among the owners about not signing Bauer/Urias/Clevinger.

[notin]

Larry has the nickname ready as soon as we get the announcement.

 

"Hang 'em Chaim". It took me a while to realize the alliteration worked there.

 

Also it was a Clint Eastwood movie…

[Bellhorn04]

Also it was a Clint Eastwood movie…

 

Knew that.

[notin]

At this point I'm wondering if there's a little quiet agreement among the owners about not signing Bauer/Urias/Clevinger.

 

I think Bauer and Urias really don’t need a conspiracy to understand why they’re being avoided. Ditto Domingo German.

 

Clevinger is probably asking for more money (or years?) than many teams think he’s worth. He’s super-talented, but his track record, especially for durability, is not great.

 

And it’s not like these are the only pitchers sitting around unsigned. I doubt the league has conspired against Eric Lauer, for example…

[Bellhorn04]

I think Bauer and Urias really don’t need a conspiracy to understand why they’re being avoided. Ditto Domingo German.

 

Clevinger is probably asking for more than many teams think he’s worth. He’s super-talented, but his track record, especially for durability, is not great.

 

And it’s not like these are the only pitchers sitting around unsigned. I doubt the league has conspired against Eric Lauer, for example…

 

B/U/C have a tad more in MLB credentials than Lauer.

[notin]

Knew that.

 

If you saw it, my condolences. It was among his worst from that era…

[Bellhorn04]

If you saw it, my condolences. It was among his worst from that era…

 

Pale Rider was my favorite of his westerns.

[notin]

Pale Rider was my favorite of his westerns.

 

I got to go with Fistful of Dollars or The Outlaw Josey Wales…

[Randy Red Sox]

IMHO it's going to be yet another PR nightmare for the Sox FO if Montgomery signs elsewhere on a reasonable deal.

 

at this point do you really think John Henry cares what the fans think?

[Randy Red Sox]

Are we really making up nick names already? This team hasn’t even played one game yet and we have already moved into aligning ourselves as supporters or haters of Breslow?

 

What did we expect him to do in his first offseason? Sign Yamamoto or Ohtani? Or is it the other free agents that the other 29 teams haven’t signed either?

 

It’s painstakingly obvious ownership has given him a budget to operate under. And all trades he’s made with the Sale trade aside as brought in what this organization significantly lacks. In the absence of ownership telling him to go big after free agents the only other thing he can do is draft, and he hasn’t even had one yet.

 

Look, it’s a free country, but calling him “Bres-slow” at this point just seems a little ridiculous.

 

Hey if the name fits