A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

If they NEVER say yes, this team will NEVER get back to the World Series without a complete overhaul of the pitching pipeline. That will take YEARS.

 

Agreed, but I'm done expecting it to happen, only to be let down, over and over.

 

I'm not saying I believe it will never happen, but who knows with these guys?

 

The Price signing was very long ago. The Nate signing and Sale extension seem like long ago. We've spent only $6-$12M on the rotation, every winter from 2020 to 2024. (I'm counting Gio $19M minus $10M on the Sale differential= $9M.)

 

Why should we think 2025 will be different? We can hope it will be.

 

Do you expect it to happen, next winter?

[moonslav59]

Looking at that group -- if they all hit the market -- and wondering what Giolito's thinking... even if he somehow rebounds back into Cy Young contention, does his agent really believe Gio can opt out and find a new contract much better than $20 mil AAV? Guess it all depends on how much Snell and Monty finally settle for this SPRING.

 

He should sign early.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but I'm done expecting it to happen, only to be let down, over and over.

 

I'm not saying I believe it will never happen, but who knows with these guys?

 

The Price signing was very long ago. The Nate signing and Sale extension seem like long ago. We've spent only $6-$12M on the rotation, every winter from 2020 to 2024. (I'm counting Gio $19M minus $10M on the Sale differential= $9M.)

 

Why should we think 2025 will be different? We can hope it will be.

 

Do you expect it to happen, next winter?

 

I don't expect it to happen again. They've lost the goodwill with me.

[moonslav59]

I don't expect it to happen again. They've lost the goodwill with me.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say it is probably going to happen, again- maybe in 2026, but it seems more like a hope than an expectation.

[Nick]

I keep hearing this year's starters are worse than last year's. I just don't see it.

 

Bello, Kutter, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock all have chance to do much better than last year.

 

We are also forgetting how Paxton finished after great start.

 

Let's not forget the 9 starts by Kluber. Sale = Giolito with slight improvement?

 

We may get to 85 wins.

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing this year's starters are worse than last year's. I just don't see it.

 

Bello, Kutter, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock all have chance to do much better than last year.

 

We are also forgetting how Paxton finished after great start.

 

Let's not forget the 9 starts by Kluber. Sale = Giolito with slight improvement?

 

We may get to 85 wins.

 

The point about Kluber, and I'll add all the "opener" and pen games is a good one. They are addition by subtraction.

 

Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and most pitchers do much better from the pen than as starters, so there is a natural instinct to assume those guys will not improve on their 2023 numbers, if they start more than they did, this year.

 

On Sale and Paxton: out SP'er ERA was 4.68.

4.50 Paxton in 19 GS (96 IP)

4.30 Sale in 20 GS (103 IP)

 

Only Bello had better numbers.

 

(Kluber 9 GS 6.26 ERA in 42 IP)

 

 

 

OPSA as SP

.706 Crawford

.709 Sale 20 GS

.742 Houck

.754 Pivetta

.765 Paxton 19 GS

.777 Bello

.841 Whitlock

.881 Kluber 9 GS

 

Our SPing sucked, last year. It doesn't look like it got any better with Gio maybe replacing 33 of the 39 GS by Sale & Paxton.

 

Hopefully, the others can improve on Kluber and the pen games by a lot.

 

I don't think our Starting 5 looks better than 2023.

Edited January 29, 2024 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

I keep hearing this year's starters are worse than last year's. I just don't see it.

 

Bello, Kutter, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock all have chance to do much better than last year.

 

We are also forgetting how Paxton finished after great start.

 

Let's not forget the 9 starts by Kluber. Sale = Giolito with slight improvement?

 

We may get to 85 wins.

 

This team as it stands today is WORSE than the 2023 team. Giolito/Sale is close to as wash IMO but the Juicer is a downgrade to Verdugo. What else have we really done? Not to mention that we have let Paxton go with no replacement added.

[moonslav59]

This team as it stands today is WORSE than the 2023 team. Giolito/Sale is close to as wash IMO but the Juicer is a downgrade to Verdugo. What else have we really done? Not to mention that we have let Paxton go with no replacement added.

 

What else?

 

Grissom for the clown carousel at 2B

Innings at 2B in 2023

442 Arroyo

357 E Valdez

209 Urias

196 Reyes

131 Kike

49 Turner

18 Chang

11 Rafaela

11 DHam

5 Wong

1 Dalbec

 

OPS at 2B: .663

OAA Rank: 29th in MLB (-13 outs)

 

Sale had 20 starts in 2023: Paxton had 19. Combined they had 39.

Gio is expected to get 32-33, so he almost covers for both. The rest will come from more starts by Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck or someone else. They also have to cover for Kluber's 9 starts and 16 by openers and pen game starters.

 

The other "additions" are from within the system or returning players expected to be healthier of mature enough to play more often in '24 than '23.

 

I'm not trying to sound happy about any of this, but there will be some new faces and more views of faces we barely saw in '23. Will it work? Can they replace JT, Dugo, Duvall, Sale, Paxton, Kluber and others no longer around?

 

In theory, we could see this (or course, we will not have perfect health, all around.):

 

GS '23 to 24 (63 GS to replace from '23)

0> 32 Giolito +32

16>32 Pivetta +16

21>28 Houck +7

23>28 Crawford +5

28>31 Bello +3

 

We had 28 pitchers with 2+ IP from the pen. If we can bring that down to 18-20, we can replace some really bad pitchers. We pitched 656 Innings from the pen, last year. I hope we don't tax it as much, in 2024. Let's say we pitch 650 in 2024 and replace the following 270 IP:

56 Pivetta 3.07 (moves to rotation FT: this one hurts)

31 Bleier 5.28

30 Llovera 5.46

25 Jacques 4.26

23 Crawford 1.66 (OUCH!)

21 Brasier 7.29

19 K Ort 6.27

17 Garza 6.23

13 Kluber 9.45

11 Robertson 6.55

11 Joely 6.55

9 Weiss 2.08

8 Bearclaw 12.91

7 Sherriff 2.70

3 Littell 9.00

3 T Scott 6.75

2 Lamet 13.50, Faria 22.50, Reyes 4.50

 

Added 270 IP...

83>90 Wink +7

51>51 Martin

48>48 Murphy

45>45 Jansen

45>65 Schreiber +20

42>62 Bernardino +20

20>70 Whitlock +50

23>23 Walter

9>42 Kelly +33

0>50 Campbell +50

0>40 Slaten +40

0>50 Mata, Criswell, Weissert, Fitts, M Castillo +50

 

Replacing the PAs (I wont get into innings on D):

626 Turner .800

602 Dugo .745

353 Duvall .834

323 Kike .599

206 Arroyo .638

112 Chang .552

109 Urias .698

26 Alfaro .368 & C Hamilton .167

 

That's about 2350 PAs to replace. JT and Duvall won't be easy, but some bad hitters are gone, too.

 

Add these PAs

0> 500 Grissom +500

168>618 Story +450

89> 439 Rafaela +350

85>435 Abreu +350

502>652 Casas +150

362>512 Duran +150

149>299 E Valdez +150

580>630 Yoshida +50

185>235 Reyes +50

[Bellhorn04]

This team as it stands today is WORSE than the 2023 team. Giolito/Sale is close to as wash IMO but the Juicer is a downgrade to Verdugo. What else have we really done? Not to mention that we have let Paxton go with no replacement added.

 

Cheer up man. FanGraphs currently projects us to win 82 this year.

[notin]

This team as it stands today is WORSE than the 2023 team. Giolito/Sale is close to as wash IMO but the Juicer is a downgrade to Verdugo. What else have we really done? Not to mention that we have let Paxton go with no replacement added.

 

The added/lost method really isn’ta good way to evaluate a team…

[Hugh2]

zips and steamer projections are more for O'Neill than they are Verdugo, because if healthy "the juicer" actually would be an upgrade not a downgrade there. If O'Neill goes down then I presume Abreu/Rafaella come up each of whom may add equal or greater value...or not. I expect the same production in LF/CF with the slight chance of improvement out there. Story will upgrade SS, Grissom will upgrade 2nd.

 

Honestly, this feels like an 82 win team. That could break one way or the other depending on how much goes right/wrong. A major pitching upgrade would have many feeling much better about the team, that's for certain.

[Randy Red Sox]

The added/lost method really isn’ta good way to evaluate a team…

 

well it is all we have at this point

[Randy Red Sox]

What else?

 

Grissom for the clown carousel at 2B

Innings at 2B in 2023

442 Arroyo

357 E Valdez

209 Urias

196 Reyes

131 Kike

49 Turner

18 Chang

11 Rafaela

11 DHam

5 Wong

1 Dalbec

 

OPS at 2B: .663

OAA Rank: 29th in MLB (-13 outs)

 

Sale had 20 starts in 2023: Paxton had 19. Combined they had 39.

Gio is expected to get 32-33, so he almost covers for both. The rest will come from more starts by Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck or someone else. They also have to cover for Kluber's 9 starts and 16 by openers and pen game starters.

 

The other "additions" are from within the system or returning players expected to be healthier of mature enough to play more often in '24 than '23.

 

I'm not trying to sound happy about any of this, but there will be some new faces and more views of faces we barely saw in '23. Will it work? Can they replace JT, Dugo, Duvall, Sale, Paxton, Kluber and others no longer around?

 

In theory, we could see this (or course, we will not have perfect health, all around.):

 

GS '23 to 24 (63 GS to replace from '23)

0> 32 Giolito +32

16>32 Pivetta +16

21>28 Houck +7

23>28 Crawford +5

28>31 Bello +3

 

We had 28 pitchers with 2+ IP from the pen. If we can bring that down to 18-20, we can replace some really bad pitchers. We pitched 656 Innings from the pen, last year. I hope we don't tax it as much, in 2024. Let's say we pitch 650 in 2024 and replace the following 270 IP:

56 Pivetta 3.07 (moves to rotation FT: this one hurts)

31 Bleier 5.28

30 Llovera 5.46

25 Jacques 4.26

23 Crawford 1.66 (OUCH!)

21 Brasier 7.29

19 K Ort 6.27

17 Garza 6.23

13 Kluber 9.45

11 Robertson 6.55

11 Joely 6.55

9 Weiss 2.08

8 Bearclaw 12.91

7 Sherriff 2.70

3 Littell 9.00

3 T Scott 6.75

2 Lamet 13.50, Faria 22.50, Reyes 4.50

 

Added 270 IP...

83>90 Wink +7

51>51 Martin

48>48 Murphy

45>45 Jansen

45>65 Schreiber +20

42>62 Bernardino +20

20>70 Whitlock +50

23>23 Walter

9>42 Kelly +33

0>50 Campbell +50

0>40 Slaten +40

0>50 Mata, Criswell, Weissert, Fitts, M Castillo +50

 

Replacing the PAs (I wont get into innings on D):

626 Turner .800

602 Dugo .745

353 Duvall .834

323 Kike .599

206 Arroyo .638

112 Chang .552

109 Urias .698

26 Alfaro .368 & C Hamilton .167

 

That's about 2350 PAs to replace. JT and Duvall won't be easy, but some bad hitters are gone, too.

 

Add these PAs

0> 500 Grissom +500

168>618 Story +450

89> 439 Rafaela +350

85>435 Abreu +350

502>652 Casas +150

362>512 Duran +150

149>299 E Valdez +150

580>630 Yoshida +50

185>235 Reyes +50

 

i forgot about Grissom but he is still unproven at this point

[Randy Red Sox]

Cheer up man. FanGraphs currently projects us to win 82 this year.

 

great--let's stay in the mushy middle

[Hugh2]

great--let's stay in the mushy middle

 

It's a tough climb to the top, did we really think there was an offseason to be had that would take us from a 78 win team to a 98 win team?

[Bellhorn04]

It's a tough climb to the top, did we really think there was an offseason to be had that would take us from a 78 win team to a 98 win team?

 

I think all most hoped for was from 78 to 88ish, not 98ish.

[moonslav59]

i forgot about Grissom but he is still unproven at this point

 

Well, the guys we had were proven to suck, so there is that.

 

It's very hard to imagine Grissom will be the second worst defensive 2Bman in MLB and hit just .663.

 

Just average D and a .713 OPS (a 50 pt increase) would give the team a big boost at a key position on the diamond.

 

I would not be surprised, if our 2B defense ranks 10-15th and Grissom hits .763 or more (a 100 point plus improvement.)

.

[mvp 78]

This team as it stands today is WORSE than the 2023 team. Giolito/Sale is close to as wash IMO but the Juicer is a downgrade to Verdugo. What else have we really done? Not to mention that we have let Paxton go with no replacement added.

 

Paxton - 1.0 fWAR, 4.50 ERA, 96 Innings

 

How could we ever replace that production?!?!?!

 

Rafaela could match Verdugo's fWAR if he played CF everyday and OPS'd under 700. Verdugo's 2023 is the most overrated Red Sox season in recent history.

[mvp 78]

i forgot about Grissom but he is still unproven at this point

 

That is how it's going to work the next few years. Most of the additions will be with unproven, younger players.

[notin]

zips and steamer projections are more for O'Neill than they are Verdugo, because if healthy "the juicer" actually would be an upgrade not a downgrade there. If O'Neill goes down then I presume Abreu/Rafaella come up each of whom may add equal or greater value...or not. I expect the same production in LF/CF with the slight chance of improvement out there. Story will upgrade SS, Grissom will upgrade 2nd.

 

Honestly, this feels like an 82 win team. That could break one way or the other depending on how much goes right/wrong. A major pitching upgrade would have many feeling much better about the team, that's for certain.

 

82 wins isn’t exciting to me, and still might be last place caliber. But it would be an improvement…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That is how it's going to work the next few years. Most of the additions will be with unproven, younger players.

 

Don't worry, they'll all be overnight sensational: Fisk, Lynn, Rice, Nomar, Pedey -- it's our legacy!

[Old Red]

That is how it's going to work the next few years. Most of the additions will be with unproven, younger players.

 

Sounds kind of SUSPECT to me.

[Old Red]

Don't worry, they'll all be overnight sensational: Fisk, Lynn, Rice, Nomar, Pedey -- it's our legacy!

 

Mayer was a overnight sensation 3 years ago, and now others have been added to the list.

[Bellhorn04]

82 wins isn’t exciting to me, and still might be last place caliber. But it would be an improvement…

 

79 wins and last place would be an improvement.

[notin]

79 wins and last place would be an improvement.

 

As it is a zero sum game, if the Sox get 5-10 games better, who gets 5-10 games worse?

[Bellhorn04]

As it is a zero sum game, if the Sox get 5-10 games better, who gets 5-10 games worse?

 

It could be 5-10 teams getting 1 game worse. Astronomical range of possibilities.

 

A mad rabbit hole to go down.

[Old Red]

79 wins and last place would be an improvement.

 

It’s a low bar, but possibly achievable. As I read a quote from one fan that they can handle a team with a losing record, and being last place in the Div, but what they can’t handle is not trying to get better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As it is a zero sum game, if the Sox get 5-10 games better, who gets 5-10 games worse?

 

The Yankees; they're zeroes. When the Sox beat them 5 more times, the Yankees will have 5 more losses. A 10-game swing and miss... or sumthing.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s a low bar, but possibly achievable. As I read a quote from one fan that they can handle a team with a losing record, and being last place in the Div, but what they can’t handle is not trying to get better.

 

Let's get the T-shirts printed up: 79 WILL BE JUST FINE

[notin]

The Yankees; they're zeroes. When the Sox beat them 5 more times, the Yankees will have 5 more losses. A 10-game swing and miss... or sumthing.

 

But they have the reigning AL Cy Young winner and the newly formed Judge-Soto-Stanton baseball mashing machine!