A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

The Sox still have a chance to be competitive, but a lot of things have to happen. Continued development from Bello, Casas and Duran. Good years from Giolito and Pivetta. More good work from the bullpen. Story starting to earn his money. At least one of the kids like Abreu and Rafaela doing well. And so forth. It's a lot to ask for, but it's all we can hope for at the moment. There are always surprises in baseball. Don't give up yet.

 

why should the fans keep faith when the FO has not?

Edited January 13, 2024 by Randy Red Sox

[Old Red]

The Optimist, but still realist, view at 2024:

 

We may need close to 30 of these 32 things to "go right" in 2024 to have a chance at some semblance of joy or glory:

 

1. Devers: He won't turn 28 until after the 2024 season. He is now in the peak prime of his career. It's not unthinkable to think he could "go off," this year. To what extent is up for debate. He's had had an OPS+ above 132 in 3 of the last 4 full seasons, and has had some pretty long stretches of decent defense, too. Could he hit over 150 in OPS+ and put together a full season of average defense?

 

2. Story: This guy might hold the widest range of projectable outcomes for 2024, based on his health and low vs high points in his career. He will be 31 in 2024, so it's not like he cannot still have a big year. He is still an excellent defensive SS. He can continue that. He's has OPS+ between 120-127 four times in his career. I don't think projecting a career high OPS+ is realistic, and many point to the COL splits as skewing his numbers beyond recognition. I'm thinking Fenway is a nice park to hit, too, and maybe a 108-112 OPS+ is not outlandish.

 

3. Yoshida: He's another tough cookie to crack. Only one year in the bigs and the whole cultural adjustment thing could lead to a nice second year. He ended the season with a .783 OPS and a 109 OPS+. He was doing fine in mid July (over .880) and was still over .850 on August 1st and .820 on Sept 4th, but he dropped off at the end. Will DH'ing help him stay strong, all year? I'm thinking .850 (125 OPS+) is within reason.

 

4. Casas: I might feel more confident about this guy than anyone else. He's such a hard worker and studies the game, hard. He missed some time, so just playing 20-25 more games, alone, could be a big boost. He ended the season at .858 (129 OPS+.) He ended the season with a .922 OPS over his last 106 games and 406 PAs. I may get push back on this, but I think he can come close to repeating this, over a full 2024 season: .900 and a an OPS+ over 140 or 150.

 

5. O'Neill: He'll turn 29, next year, so a career year is possible. Injuries have not helped him, but that 2021 season jumps out as a season, I'm hoping he can come close to repeating: GG defense and a .912 OPS (148 OPS+.) Could he play good D and hit .850+ (125 OPS+) in 2024? I'm thinking he can.

 

6. Duran: Another tough guy to project. The 121 OPS+ in 102 games in 2024 is very promising. Even his D looked better, but still not average, IMO. I'm thinking continued improvement on D (close to avg in LF) and a 115+ OPS+ is not a wild idea.

 

7. Grissom: He's got a 105 OPS+ by age 22. He was not a good defensive SS, but maybe he can be okay at 2B. Okay, sure as hell beats having the worst D at 2B, like we did, last year. I'm thinking he can top that 105 OPS+ and play average D at 2B for 150 games.

 

8. Wong and 9. McGuire: Both are young enough to improve. They both had an 80 OPS+, and I'm going to say I think 85-95 is not a bad guess. The D must improve. Working with many of the same pitchers on the staff should help them improve their results.

 

10. Reyes and 11. Refsnyder: Both should have pretty clear roles for 2024. Ref has been a top 25-30 batter vs LHPs in MLB since 2022. Reyes ended up over .710, and was not as bad at 2B as others. I'm guessing these two can keep up with the average bench players in MLB, if used as they should be.

 

12. Rafaela and 13. Abreu: These guys could surprise- in either direction. Rafaela is great on D, while Abreu seems pretty good. Their bats are largely a big guess, but maybe, combined, they can hit between .735 and .755.

 

14. Extended everyday player depth: EValdez, Dalbec, DHam and anyone added to the 40, during the year (Anthony? Teel? Yorke? Mayer?) Hard to guess, here. Maybe nothing great but nothing so bad, it's a game changer.

 

15. Bello: It's hard to imagine us doing anything joyful without this guy leading the staff. Maybe start by going from 28 GS & 157 IP to 33 GS and 175+ IP. From game 3 to game 26: the team went 16-8 3.39 ERA (4.08 FIP.) I'm thinking 3.50 (4.00 FIP.)

 

16. Giolito: Simple: be the 2019-2021 Gio: 3.47 ERA (129 ERA+) 3.54 and not the 2022-2023 one. I'm thinking 3.75 (3.75) in 30 GS and 170+ IP.

 

17. Pivetta: He has a 103 ERA+ with the Sox. I'm thinking a 4.35 (105 ERA+) and 30 GS/ 175 IP.

 

18. Houck, 19. Crawford, 20. Whitlock: Looks like 2 might start, which likely won't help, but I think, combined, they can improve, significantly over their 2023 numbers.

 

21. Winckowski and 22, Schreiber: Wink went up/ Schreiber went down. I think, combined these two should be pretty good set-up men and be better than 2023.

 

23. Martin and 24. Jansen: I'm going to just say, "repeat 2024."

 

25. Bernardino, 26. Slaten (Rule 5) and 27. Mata (no options): We don't need greatness from these 3. If just two do okay and give us better innings that the scrubs we had last year, it should be a plus.

 

28.Max Castillo, Wikelman and anyone the might add (Fitts or Gambrell) don't have to do much to be better than last year's scrubs.

 

29. Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter and any additions (Guerrero, Benitez or Olivarez:) To me, this could be an area we get a boost, even to some sort of surprising level- better than Schreiber 2022 or Bernardino 2023.

 

30. Team defense is bound to improve as Story plays more, Yoshida DH's more and Grissom replaces the clown carousel at 2B.

 

31. Our coaching staff makes less mistakes.

 

32. Breslow makes better in season moves than Bloom did.

 

Looking back at all this, maybe even 25 of 32 might get us somewhere.

 

 

 

 

🙈🤭🙈.

[Hugh2]

The Optimist, but still realist, view at 2024:

 

We may need close to 30 of these 32 things to "go right" in 2024 to have a chance at some semblance of joy or glory:

 

1. Devers: He won't turn 28 until after the 2024 season. He is now in the peak prime of his career. It's not unthinkable to think he could "go off," this year. To what extent is up for debate. He's had had an OPS+ above 132 in 3 of the last 4 full seasons, and has had some pretty long stretches of decent defense, too. Could he hit over 150 in OPS+ and put together a full season of average defense?

 

2. Story: This guy might hold the widest range of projectable outcomes for 2024, based on his health and low vs high points in his career. He will be 31 in 2024, so it's not like he cannot still have a big year. He is still an excellent defensive SS. He can continue that. He's has OPS+ between 120-127 four times in his career. I don't think projecting a career high OPS+ is realistic, and many point to the COL splits as skewing his numbers beyond recognition. I'm thinking Fenway is a nice park to hit, too, and maybe a 108-112 OPS+ is not outlandish.

 

3. Yoshida: He's another tough cookie to crack. Only one year in the bigs and the whole cultural adjustment thing could lead to a nice second year. He ended the season with a .783 OPS and a 109 OPS+. He was doing fine in mid July (over .880) and was still over .850 on August 1st and .820 on Sept 4th, but he dropped off at the end. Will DH'ing help him stay strong, all year? I'm thinking .850 (125 OPS+) is within reason.

 

4. Casas: I might feel more confident about this guy than anyone else. He's such a hard worker and studies the game, hard. He missed some time, so just playing 20-25 more games, alone, could be a big boost. He ended the season at .858 (129 OPS+.) He ended the season with a .922 OPS over his last 106 games and 406 PAs. I may get push back on this, but I think he can come close to repeating this, over a full 2024 season: .900 and a an OPS+ over 140 or 150.

 

5. O'Neill: He'll turn 29, next year, so a career year is possible. Injuries have not helped him, but that 2021 season jumps out as a season, I'm hoping he can come close to repeating: GG defense and a .912 OPS (148 OPS+.) Could he play good D and hit .850+ (125 OPS+) in 2024? I'm thinking he can.

 

6. Duran: Another tough guy to project. The 121 OPS+ in 102 games in 2024 is very promising. Even his D looked better, but still not average, IMO. I'm thinking continued improvement on D (close to avg in LF) and a 115+ OPS+ is not a wild idea.

 

7. Grissom: He's got a 105 OPS+ by age 22. He was not a good defensive SS, but maybe he can be okay at 2B. Okay, sure as hell beats having the worst D at 2B, like we did, last year. I'm thinking he can top that 105 OPS+ and play average D at 2B for 150 games.

 

8. Wong and 9. McGuire: Both are young enough to improve. They both had an 80 OPS+, and I'm going to say I think 85-95 is not a bad guess. The D must improve. Working with many of the same pitchers on the staff should help them improve their results.

 

10. Reyes and 11. Refsnyder: Both should have pretty clear roles for 2024. Ref has been a top 25-30 batter vs LHPs in MLB since 2022. Reyes ended up over .710, and was not as bad at 2B as others. I'm guessing these two can keep up with the average bench players in MLB, if used as they should be.

 

12. Rafaela and 13. Abreu: These guys could surprise- in either direction. Rafaela is great on D, while Abreu seems pretty good. Their bats are largely a big guess, but maybe, combined, they can hit between .735 and .755.

 

14. Extended everyday player depth: EValdez, Dalbec, DHam and anyone added to the 40, during the year (Anthony? Teel? Yorke? Mayer?) Hard to guess, here. Maybe nothing great but nothing so bad, it's a game changer.

 

15. Bello: It's hard to imagine us doing anything joyful without this guy leading the staff. Maybe start by going from 28 GS & 157 IP to 33 GS and 175+ IP. From game 3 to game 26: the team went 16-8 3.39 ERA (4.08 FIP.) I'm thinking 3.50 (4.00 FIP.)

 

16. Giolito: Simple: be the 2019-2021 Gio: 3.47 ERA (129 ERA+) 3.54 and not the 2022-2023 one. I'm thinking 3.75 (3.75) in 30 GS and 170+ IP.

 

17. Pivetta: He has a 103 ERA+ with the Sox. I'm thinking a 4.35 (105 ERA+) and 30 GS/ 175 IP.

 

18. Houck, 19. Crawford, 20. Whitlock: Looks like 2 might start, which likely won't help, but I think, combined, they can improve, significantly over their 2023 numbers.

 

21. Winckowski and 22, Schreiber: Wink went up/ Schreiber went down. I think, combined these two should be pretty good set-up men and be better than 2023.

 

23. Martin and 24. Jansen: I'm going to just say, "repeat 2024."

 

25. Bernardino, 26. Slaten (Rule 5) and 27. Mata (no options): We don't need greatness from these 3. If just two do okay and give us better innings that the scrubs we had last year, it should be a plus.

 

28.Max Castillo, Wikelman and anyone the might add (Fitts or Gambrell) don't have to do much to be better than last year's scrubs.

 

29. Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter and any additions (Guerrero, Benitez or Olivarez:) To me, this could be an area we get a boost, even to some sort of surprising level- better than Schreiber 2022 or Bernardino 2023.

 

30. Team defense is bound to improve as Story plays more, Yoshida DH's more and Grissom replaces the clown carousel at 2B.

 

31. Our coaching staff makes less mistakes.

 

32. Breslow makes better in season moves than Bloom did.

 

Looking back at all this, maybe even 25 of 32 might get us somewhere.

 

 

 

 

The chances of all those happening is greater than zero.

 

Also, the odds of someone being killed by a meteorite is also more than zero.

[notin]

The chances of all those happening is greater than zero.

 

Also, the odds of someone being killed by a meteorite is also more than zero.

 

Moon, add that meteorite thingy to the list. Can we place requests for that someone?

[Larry Cook]

I think abreau is ready to be in Boston full time. Maybe it is better if rafeala starts the year at Worcester and comes up everytime O’Neill breaks down!!!!

 

I would hope that by June abreau is our full time left fielder.

[oldtimer]

#33 Despite their improved rosters, Yankees, Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays all play worse then they did in 2023.

[moonslav59]

The chances of all those happening is greater than zero.

 

Also, the odds of someone being killed by a meteorite is also more than zero.

 

About how many of those 32 need to occur for us to be in the playoff hunt?

[moonslav59]

#33 Despite their improved rosters, Yankees, Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays all play worse then they did in 2023.

 

They all improved?

[moonslav59]

I think abreau is ready to be in Boston full time. Maybe it is better if rafeala starts the year at Worcester and comes up everytime O’Neill breaks down!!!!

 

I would hope that by June abreau is our full time left fielder.

 

I think Abreu has a better chance winning the RF position, then CF, and last LF.

 

Ref is a DH/LF'er platoon.

Yoshida is a DH/LF'er.

Duran is better in LF than CF or RF.

O'Neill is better in LF than RF.

The CF job is all Rafaela's if he can just hit well enough to win it. (Yes, big if.)

 

If Rafaela cannot win the CF job, outright, it looks like Duran lays there (Yuck,) and depending on O'Neill's health, Abreu might be our RF'er.

[Hugh2]

About how many of those 32 need to occur for us to be in the playoff hunt?

 

Probably not as many as people think.

 

Lets just say most of the players give you about what they have in the past, maybe a little more of less down the line and just 7 exceed expecations:

 

O'Neil stays healthy

Story stays healthy

Grissom becomes an average everyday 2nb who can hit

Bello takes a step forward and is a #2

Giolito gives you innings, gets his head right and is a #2/#3

1 of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford take a step forward and pitch well.

 

That right there, might make this team much better than anyone in here will give them credit for.

 

If a few of those things don't happen we need something unexpected to happen. Abreu taking a larger step forward than we think he can for example, or some of the other numbers on your list.

 

This is not all too different than every other team in baseball. We just have more question marks. There are more paths towards this team being bad next year than other teams.

[Hugh2]

Probably not as many as people think.

 

Lets just say most of the players give you about what they have in the past, maybe a little more of less down the line and just 7 exceed expecations:

 

O'Neil stays healthy

Story stays healthy

Grissom becomes an average everyday 2nb who can hit

Bello takes a step forward and is a #2

Giolito gives you innings, gets his head right and is a #2/#3

1 of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford take a step forward and pitch well.

 

That right there, might make this team much better than anyone in here will give them credit for.

 

If a few of those things don't happen we need something unexpected to happen. Abreu taking a larger step forward than we think he can for example, or some of the other numbers on your list.

 

This is not all too different than every other team in baseball. We just have more question marks. There are more paths towards this team being bad next year than other teams.

 

If those things happened above, and perhaps we need a prayer for it do so. The lineup looks really good, they'd probably never do this with such a young player but Grissom looks like he could be a very good leadoff hitter. This puts Casas and Devers naturally into the #2 #4 slot in some order. Now you just need one of O'Neill and Story to be good to fill out the 3 hole.

 

There's a path there for this team to be good. There's just so much uncertainty in this lineup compared to other teams.

[moonslav59]

Probably not as many as people think.

 

Lets just say most of the players give you about what they have in the past, maybe a little more of less down the line and just 7 exceed expecations:

 

O'Neil stays healthy

Story stays healthy

Grissom becomes an average everyday 2nb who can hit

Bello takes a step forward and is a #2

Giolito gives you innings, gets his head right and is a #2/#3

1 of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford take a step forward and pitch well.

 

That right there, might make this team much better than anyone in here will give them credit for.

 

If a few of those things don't happen we need something unexpected to happen. Abreu taking a larger step forward than we think he can for example, or some of the other numbers on your list.

 

This is not all too different than every other team in baseball. We just have more question marks. There are more paths towards this team being bad next year than other teams.

 

I started that post out thinking we'd likely need 29 or 30 out of 32 to go right for us to be a winning team with playoff hopes, but as I started looking at how nearly every player or position had reasonable hopes at improvement, my number started falling. I ended thinking maybe 24 or 25 might be needed, but a lot depends on how far off some positions are from adding value.

 

If we have 23 things go right, but 9 go horribly wrong, we likely will not improve, let alone improve by enough to catch some division foes and pass them.

 

We might be able to pull it off with 16-20 going right, if the other 12-16 don't kill us with super bad play.

 

The 6 areas you listed look legit, but we'll need others to join them or not to regress for anything magical to happen.

[notin]

Probably not as many as people think.

 

Lets just say most of the players give you about what they have in the past, maybe a little more of less down the line and just 7 exceed expecations:

 

O'Neil stays healthy

Story stays healthy

Grissom becomes an average everyday 2nb who can hit

Bello takes a step forward and is a #2

Giolito gives you innings, gets his head right and is a #2/#3

1 of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford take a step forward and pitch well.

 

That right there, might make this team much better than anyone in here will give them credit for.

 

If a few of those things don't happen we need something unexpected to happen. Abreu taking a larger step forward than we think he can for example, or some of the other numbers on your list.

 

This is not all too different than every other team in baseball. We just have more question marks. There are more paths towards this team being bad next year than other teams.

 

This team is actually probably already better than last season. But by how much is the question, as it is partially not as significant as they need…

[moonslav59]

If those things happened above, and perhaps we need a prayer for it do so. The lineup looks really good, they'd probably never do this with such a young player but Grissom looks like he could be a very good leadoff hitter. This puts Casas and Devers naturally into the #2 #4 slot in some order. Now you just need one of O'Neill and Story to be good to fill out the 3 hole.

 

There's a path there for this team to be good. There's just so much uncertainty in this lineup compared to other teams.

 

I agree on Grissom at lead off. I put him there on another thread. (Duran could be another option.)

 

1. R Grissom 2B

2. L Devers 3B

3. R O'Neill RF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/LF

7. L Duran LF or CF/ L Refsnyder DH/ LF

8. R Rafaela CF/ L Abreu CF

9. L Wong/ R McGuire

 

[moonslav59]

This team is actually probably already better than last season. But by how much is the question, as it is partially not as significant as they need…

 

A lot depends on age progression, which does not always follow the expected curve.

 

Our key returning players, other than Jansen and Martin are almost all in peak prime or approaching it.

 

Grissom, Rafaela and Abreu are too pre-prime and inexperienced at the MLB level to know what to expect. (Also, I Campbell, EValdez, Slaten & Mata)

 

Moving towards peak prime:

Bello, Casas, Duran, Crawford, Wink & Wong

McGuire

 

In peak prime, now:

Devers, Story, Giolito, O'Neill, Yoshida, Houck, Whitlock

Pivetta, Schreiber, Reyes, Refsnyder, Bernardino

 

Past Prime:

Jansen & Martin

 

[notin]

I agree on Grissom at lead off. I put him there on another thread. (Duran could be another option.)

 

1. R Grissom 2B

2. L Devers 3B

3. R O'Neill RF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/LF

7. L Duran LF or CF/ L Refsnyder DH/ LF

8. R Rafaela CF/ L Abreu CF

9. L Wong/ R McGuire

 

 

 

I’m kind of hoping the Sox deal Duran for a SP. I’d move Duran (and his .381 BABIP) for Edward Cabrera, but Miami’s too need is a shortstop. While it didn’t work out of BTV, a deal where:

 

Miami gets Ha-Seong Kim to fill their void at SS

San Diego gets Jarren Duran, who gives them a much-needed left-handed outfield bat that fits the cost—cutting budget

Boston gets Edward Cabrera to fill a big void in their rotation…

[Hugh2]

I agree on Grissom at lead off. I put him there on another thread. (Duran could be another option.)

 

1. R Grissom 2B

2. L Devers 3B

3. R O'Neill RF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/LF

7. L Duran LF or CF/ L Refsnyder DH/ LF

8. R Rafaela CF/ L Abreu CF

9. L Wong/ R McGuire

 

 

That's the lineup I envision, except I would flip Casas and Devers. I think Casas could grow into more power but he already has more OBP.

[moonslav59]

I’m kind of hoping the Sox deal Duran for a SP. I’d move Duran (and his .381 BABIP) for Edward Cabrera, but Miami’s too need is a shortstop. While it didn’t work out of BTV, a deal where:

 

Miami gets Ha-Seong Kim to fill their void at SS

San Diego gets Jarren Duran, who gives them a much-needed left-handed outfield bat that fits the cost—cutting budget

Boston gets Edward Cabrera to fill a big void in their rotation…

 

I'm curious why you think Cabrera is going to fix the glaring problem he has, when oh so many like him, never did.

 

While I do think BTV over values Duran (34), I do not think he's equal to Cabrera (19.6.)

 

ECab has been in MLB for 3 years. He turns 26 in April. His BB/9 was worse in 2023 (6.0) than his career 5.4 rate. I just can't get excited over that kind of rate, despite the 6.6 H/9 rate. It looks too much like DHern, to me.

 

I'd like to get away from projects, rehab or reclamation pitchers.

 

Finds a third partner who wants Yorke and find a way to trade Yorke, Duran and maybe a third piece to get Garrett (5 yrs) or Luzardo (3 yrs).

 

To BOS: Garrett

 

To MIA: Duran, Kim, Wikelman

 

To SDP: Schreiber & Yorke

 

[moonslav59]

That's the lineup I envision, except I would flip Casas and Devers. I think Casas could grow into more power but he already has more OBP.

 

I could see that.

 

Also, if Story can regain his O, maybe flip him and O'Neill.

[notin]

I'm curious why you think Cabrera is going to fix the glaring problem he has, when oh so many like him, never did.

 

While I do think BTV over values Duran (34), I do not think he's equal to Cabrera (19.6.)

 

ECab has been in MLB for 3 years. He turns 26 in April. His BB/9 was worse in 2023 (6.0) than his career 5.4 rate. I just can't get excited over that kind of rate, despite the 6.6 H/9 rate. It looks too much like DHern, to me.

 

I'd like to get away from projects, rehab or reclamation pitchers.

 

Finds a third partner who wants Yorke and find a way to trade Yorke, Duran and maybe a third piece to get Garrett (5 yrs) or Luzardo (3 yrs).

 

To BOS: Garrett

 

To MIA: Duran, Kim, Wikelman

 

To SDP: Schreiber & Yorke

 

 

If you truly believe in the importance of starting pitching, why would a Major League franchise deal one of its top two starting pitchers while trying to compete, which they are clearly doing if they acquire Kim?

 

If you were GM, would you trade either of those pitchers and NOT get back one of Anthony, Mayer or Teel? So why do you think Miami would?

 

Cabrera, with a much lesser track record, is clearly more available than the other two. And for good reason…

[Hugh2]

I could see that.

 

Also, if Story can regain his O, maybe flip him and O'Neill.

 

It might come down to which one, but at their peak performance that would be good a good discusion to have.

 

Lets pray we have that conversation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's the lineup I envision, except I would flip Casas and Devers. I think Casas could grow into more power but he already has more OBP.

 

I've said it many times; I have to ensure Raffy gets up in the first inning. For modern Red Sox starting rotations, first-strike instant leads are too important to not try for every game.

 

As for Casas, with his keen eye and how he works the count, I can envision some modern manager trying him as a Schwarber-type leadoff batter. Personally, I'd prefer another OBP man in front of him, to optimize Tris' run-producing potential.

[moonslav59]

If you truly believe in the importance of starting pitching, why would a Major League franchise deal one of its top two starting pitchers while trying to compete, which they are clearly doing if they acquire Kim?

 

If you were GM, would you trade either of those pitchers and NOT get back one of Anthony, Mayer or Teel? So why do you think Miami would?

 

Cabrera, with a much lesser track record, is clearly more available than the other two. And for good reason…

 

The Marlins churn out SP'ers like nobody else.

 

They traded Pablo Lopez, recently under the same circumstances as now.

 

It has been reported they will listen to offers for Garrett or Luzardo.

 

They await the return of Alcantara, maybe the best of the whole group. If ECab is as good as you seem to think he is, replacing Garrett or Luzardo with him, while adding Duran and Kim to their line-up looks like a decent idea.

 

They also have one of the best young SP'ers in MLB- Eury Perez.

 

BTV AFV (yrs of conrol)

115 E Perez 6

103 Garrett 5

91 Luzardo 3

57 Alcantara 4

39 Cabrera 5

33 T Rogers 3

 

I doubt any MLB team has 6 MLB pitchers with an AFV of over 33. (LAD come close.)

 

The Sox

90 Bello 5

43 Crawford 5

39 Giolito 2

16 Pivetta 1

14 Walter 6

 

ATL

266 Strider 6

41 Elder 5

37 Fried 1

37 Sale 2

33 Smith-Shawver 6

12 Morton 1

 

LAD

526 Ohtani 10 (has DH value included)

159 Glasnow 5

132 B Miller 6

60 K Hurt 6

59 E Sheehan 6

31 G Stone 6

16 Gonsolin 3

 

 

[moonslav59]

 

Cabrera, with a much lesser track record, is clearly more available than the other two. And for good reason…

 

Yes, and I am offering more for Garrett or Luzardo than I would for ECab.

 

I think Duran for ECab is an overpay. If they threw in Berti, I'd still probably say no.

[notin]

Yes, and I am offering more for Garrett or Luzardo than I would for ECab.

 

I think Duran for ECab is an overpay. If they threw in Berti, I'd still probably say no.

 

 

Duran for Cabrera might be a slight overpay. But it would probably be worth it to Boston if they plan on signing Soler or someone similar…

[dgalehouse]

I think I have seen several hundred posts advocating for trading Duran. In my humble opinion, that would be a big mistake. Let's see what happens.

[moonslav59]

Duran for Cabrera might be a slight overpay. But it would probably be worth it to Boston if they plan on signing Soler or someone similar…

 

Similar to what/who? Duran?

 

I'm not saying ECab won't work out, but why do seem so confident, he will? (Or, are you just so low on Duran?)

[moonslav59]

I think I have seen several hundred posts advocating for trading Duran. In my humble opinion, that would be a big mistake. Let's see what happens.

 

I'd prefer we let Soler sign elsewhere and trade Mayer and secondaries for Luzardo or Garrett.

 

Give them the SS they need. Roll the dice with Story and Grissom as our MI'ers for the next 4 years and hope the pitcher we get stays healthy and flourishes.

 

(I'm not against trading Duran, but I do see the chance he can become very special.)

[notin]

I think I have seen several hundred posts advocating for trading Duran. In my humble opinion, that would be a big mistake. Let's see what happens.

 

Understandable.

 

I like his offensive potential. Especially that all he needs to do is make an outfielder take 3 steps to either side - and it’s a double.

 

But he just didn’t have a position, assuming the Sox ever get a RHH bat that was so high on the radar all those months ago.

[notin]

Similar to what/who? Duran?

 

I'm not saying ECab won't work out, but why do seem so confident, he will? (Or, are you just so low on Duran?)

 

There’s things too like about Duran and things to question.

 

1. Like his ability to pressure defenses, especially outfield defenses

2. Don’t like his defense anywhere but LF (although he did markedly improve in CF last year).

3. Don’t like his .381 BABIP. So not sustainable…