A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

They have to do something significant about the rotation this offseason, or it's going to be another debacle for this front office. It'll be shocking. But what if they've miscalculated and they end up not signing Moto, Snell or Montgomery? Even if they do make a big trade, people are going to be scratching their heads.

[Bellhorn04]

Burnes seems like the best trade target, but it's only one guaranteed year. He has great numbers but maybe worth nothing they regressed some from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023.

[Randy Red Sox]

Seth Lugo to the Royals

[moonslav59]

If we end up trading for two SP'ers, unless they have hefty contracts, we'll be leaving a lot of money under the tax line in 2024.

 

Who is out there that is worthwhile to sign (or salary dump trade) to play 2B, C, RF or what?

 

I'm very concerned about trading for Burnes and not extending him at a reasonable cost. It just makes more sense to overpay on one of the big 3 remaining.

[Randy Red Sox]

If we end up trading for two SP'ers, unless they have hefty contracts, we'll be leaving a lot of money under the tax line in 2024.

 

Who is out there that is worthwhile to sign (or salary dump trade) to play 2B, C, RF or what?

 

I'm very concerned about trading for Burnes and not extending him at a reasonable cost. It just makes more sense to overpay on one of the big 3 remaining.

 

I am willing to bet anyone that Yamamoto goes to the LAD

[sk7326]

Better GMs- better choices.

Farm pipeline for the big club and/or trading.

 

I think there has been a willingness to go that extra step, when the window seems to be open wide. I'm not sure, if that is gone and JH has changed, OR JH just hasn't felt we are close enough to take the checkbook plunge.

 

I thought 2022 was a good time for it, as Bogey, JD and Nate's times were up.

I thought maybe 2023 would be the splurge year.

 

I've given up expecting it to happen.

I still hope it does, but I won't believe it until it happens.

 

Yeah. This is an area where my NBA fandom sort of gets in. I always looked at 2018 as a window that you hold open as much as you can - superstars in their prime etc etc etc ... now maybe resigning Sale was the nod to that (they'd argue that) but it was more stagnant than always moving forward.

[notin]

I am willing to bet anyone that Yamamoto goes to the LAD

 

Done. I’ll take the field. Specifically Citi Field

[moonslav59]

Yeah. This is an area where my NBA fandom sort of gets in. I always looked at 2018 as a window that you hold open as much as you can - superstars in their prime etc etc etc ... now maybe resigning Sale was the nod to that (they'd argue that) but it was more stagnant than always moving forward.

 

I thought the window could have been extended to 2020, but that eventually, the house of cards would collapse.

 

Not bringing Kimbrell or Kelly back, and not even trying to replace them was the sign the pendulum was swinging back side.

 

Hell, they nearly traded Betts in the summer of '19, which would have changed the whole DD and Bloom legacy thing, to some extent.

 

[moonslav59]

Sox sign pitcher to MLB contract!!!!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-cooper-criswell-agree-to-major-league-contract.html

[sk7326]

I thought the window could have been extended to 2020, but that eventually, the house of cards would collapse.

 

Not bringing Kimbrell or Kelly back, and not even trying to replace them was the sign the pendulum was swinging back side.

 

Hell, they nearly traded Betts in the summer of '19, which would have changed the whole DD and Bloom legacy thing, to some extent.

 

 

The house of cards characterization is a little weird given the quality of the young position players.

[jad]

Sox sign pitcher to MLB contract!!!!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-cooper-criswell-agree-to-major-league-contract.html

 

Who needs Ohtani?? We got our guy!

[moonslav59]

If we miss out on all the big contract pitchers, might we spend some of the budget space on a decent player who is overpaid?

 

BTV

AFV/Salary/Surplus

 

MIA

103/46/+58 Garrett SP (5 yrs)

91/28/+63 Luzardo SP (3)

33/8/+25 Rogers SP (3)

32/16/+16 ECabrera SP (5)

26/9/+15 AJ Puk RP (3)

14/9/+5 Berti UT (2)

 

PIT

89/39/+50 O Cruz SS(5 yrs)

a48/15/+33 M Keller SP (2)

47/24/+24 Bednar RP (3)

 

89

 

LAA

178/249/-70 Trout CF

92/47/+45 Detmers SP (4 yrs)

17/26/-9.0 Sandoval (2 yrs)

 

MIL

96/137/-41 Yelich CF (5 yrs)

49/15/+34 Burnes SP (1 yr)

 

CLE

126/126/0 Gimenez 2B/SS (7 yrs)

18/12/+6 Bieber (1)

 

WSH

79/33/+47 Abrams SS (5)

60/30/+30 Gore SP (4)

 

KCR

12/44/-32 S Perez C (2)

47/24/23 Singer SP (3)

 

DET

15/98/-83 J Baez SS/2B (4)

 

MIN

146/192/-48 Correa SS (6)

51/28/+23 B Ober SP (4)

32/23/+9 Polanco 2B (2)

 

SEA

138/122/+17 Luis Castillo (5 yrs)

108/42/+66 Gilbert SP (4 yrs)

 

TBR

38/25/13 Glasnow SP (1)

53/29/+24 Eflin SP (2)

 

CWS

145/68/+77 L Roberts (4)

'62/22/+40 Cease SP (2)

 

I'm sure there are more...

[Randy Red Sox]

Guy is a stud. Seriously is Chaim Bloom still here??

Sox sign pitcher to MLB contract!!!!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-cooper-criswell-agree-to-major-league-contract.html

[moonslav59]

The house of cards characterization is a little weird given the quality of the young position players.

 

Their contracts were running out, and the budget was the highest ever in 2019.

 

We chose to extend Sale, Nate and Bogey with an opt out. Price & JD were on the books until '22. Porcello, Kimbrell & Kelly gone after '19 and not replaced.

 

Age Player yrs of control after 2019:

22 Devers 4

24 Beni 3 (was traded)

26 ERod 2

26 Betts 1 (was traded)

26 Bogey 0 (extended)

28 Vaz 3

29 JBJ 1

(Not many younger pitchers)

 

Like I said, we could have tried to keep the window open 1-2 years longer, or at least 2019, but chose not to. 2019 was our peak salary year, and the downturn was in place, already, though.

[moonslav59]

Guy is a stud. Seriously is Chaim Bloom still here??

 

I knew that was coming.

 

Minor league deal, fine, but ML?

 

LOL

[oldtimer]

They have to do something significant about the rotation this offseason, or it's going to be another debacle for this front office. It'll be shocking. But what if they've miscalculated and they end up not signing Moto, Snell or Montgomery? Even if they do make a big trade, people are going to be scratching their heads.

 

I made the same point on the other string but perhaps showed more frustration. Just do it!

[moonslav59]

I made the same point on the other string but perhaps showed more frustration. Just do it!

 

If they come up short on fixing the rotation, we'll know for sure the sham is continuing.

 

Like the knee-jerk Story signing and the forced Devers extension, I think they must know the state of Sox Nation, right now. They seem to throw tidbits, just when fan anger is peaking. Let's see what bone they throw us, this time.

 

(It better be a big meaty one or a couple good-sized, marrow bones.)

[mvp 78]

I knew that was coming.

 

Minor league deal, fine, but ML?

 

LOL

 

He still has options so what's the big deal? He's just put on the 40 man.

[moonslav59]

He still has options so what's the big deal? He's just put on the 40 man.

 

True, but we already have a squeeze on the 26 and 40, assuming we add at least 3 players (SP, SP, 2B.)

 

It's not big deal, if he ends up being DFA'd, I guess.

[mvp 78]

True, but we already have a squeeze on the 26 and 40, assuming we add at least 3 players (SP, SP, 2B.)

 

It's not big deal, if he ends up being DFA'd, I guess.

 

There is no 40 man squeeze. Llovera, Weiss and Jacques are still on there...

[moonslav59]

There is no 40 man squeeze. Llovera, Weiss and Jacques are still on there...

 

We add 3 plus this guy and I guess Dalbec is #4.

[mvp 78]

We add 3 plus this guy and I guess Dalbec is #4.

 

Hamilton

Refsnyder

Kelly

Mata

Walter

[moonslav59]

Hamilton

Refsnyder

Kelly

Mata

Walter

 

Man, all those guys are keys to our success!

[notin]

Hamilton

Refsnyder

Kelly

Mata

Walter

 

 

Slaten…

[notin]

We add 3 plus this guy and I guess Dalbec is #4.

 

The Sox also might trade a 40-man spot to add another player…

[mvp 78]

Slaten…

 

I think he sticks, but yes, he's DFA'able for sure. There is no real crunch!

Edited December 13, 2023 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

The Sox also might trade a 40-man spot to add another player…

 

True.

 

If Brez follows Bloom's MO, we might see 5-6 mediocre to decent roster additions, instead of filling the 3 big needs with top quality players.

[moonslav59]

soxprospectscom has us at 39 on the 40 man, but they did not add Criswell.

 

We certainly have players we can trade or DFA to add 3-4 free agent signings, but if we add more than 4-5, we might have some spirited debates about who should stay and go.

 

My guess is, we will try to make a 2 or 3 for 1 trade, maybe two, but maybe not all are 40 man roster players.

 

As it stands, we lost:

Paxton, Turner, Duvall, Joely, Kluber and Mondesi to free agency.

We traded Dugo and Urias away.

We lost some players to Rule 5, most notably Drohan & R Fernandez

 

We added:

OF Tyler O'Neill (FA)

P- Isaiah Campbell (Urias trade)

P- Slaten (Trade for Rule 5 player)

P- Cooper Criswell (FA)

P- Richard Fitts (Dugo trade)

P- Greg Wiessert (Dugo trade)

P- Nicholas Judice (Dugo trade)

 

My ordered DFA/trade list:

Weiss

Llovera

Jacques

DHam (assuming we add a MI)

Dalbec

Mata (out of options)

Kelly

Criswell

Slaten (Rule 5)

Weissert

Refsnyder (assuming we add an OF'er or Rafaela and Abreu shine)

 

 

[mvp 78]

They could trade or DFA any number of guys at the bottom. There is no crunch.

[Hugh2]

It almost feels like the Sox have compiled a bunch of guys to compete for those last few spots on the 40 man, and in the bullpen, and may make expendable someone from the Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta/Crawford group. This makes sense if the Sox actually sign a few starters and trade for a RHH second baseman.