A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

They could trade or DFA any number of guys at the bottom. There is no crunch.

 

Agreed.

 

I was mistaken, earlier.

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox largest current contracts. Which do you think are good, bad or ugly?

 

$313M/10 Devers (to '33)

$145M/5 Sale (to '24 w option for '25)

$140M/6 Story (to '27 w option for '28)

$90M/5 Yoshida (to '27)

$32M/2 Jansen (to '24)

$19M/4 Whitlock (to '26)

$17.5M/2 Martin (to '24)

 

Arb Est

$8M Pivetta (last arb)

$5.9 O'Neill (last arb)

 

We have a lot coming off the books after 2024. CBT:

$25.6 Sale

$16.0 Jansen

$8.00 Pivetta

$7.50 Martin

$5.85 O'Neill

Total is about $53M

 

There is no excuse to not sign a couple or 3 guys to longer term deals.

 

Plus, after 2024, we should start seeing some real help from the farm, if things work out well. Lot's of low cost players, and the current younger group will be on early arb contracts.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox sign a catcher- most likely a minor league deal:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-sign-roberto-perez.html

 

Roberto Perez hit 24 Hrs in 2019 in just 389 ABs.

 

.655 career OPS (.555 last 4 years)

[Randy Red Sox]

Sox sign a catcher- most likely a minor league deal:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-sign-roberto-perez.html

 

Roberto Perez hit 24 Hrs in 2019 in just 389 ABs.

 

 

 

.655 career OPS (.555 last 4 years)

 

i refuse to comment on this

[Hugh2]

Someone has to catch the pitching prospects down in Worcester.

[Randy Red Sox]

Someone has to catch the pitching prospects down in Worcester.

 

wasn't aware we had any

[Hugh2]

wasn't aware we had any

 

Yeah, the Red Sox do have a AAA team in Worcester. They maintain a 28 man roster yearly.

[moonslav59]

wasn't aware we had any

 

Only "suspects."

[notin]

They could trade or DFA any number of guys at the bottom. There is no crunch.

 

But is there a chewy center?

[Randy Red Sox]

Only "suspects."

 

name a single top P prospect in our system

[moonslav59]

name a single top P prospect in our system

 

That's why I said "suspects."

 

We just have those.

 

We do have a few promising suspects, though.

[Hugh2]

name a single top P prospect in our system

 

Your best pitching prospect in Worcester is Fitts, with some intriguing arms in the bullpen. Also, you have to figure some guys from AA will be called up at some point. Wikelman Gonzalez conceivably should be in Worcester sometime

[moonslav59]

Your best pitching prospect in Worcester is Fitts, with some intriguing arms in the bullpen. Also, you have to figure some guys from AA will be called up at some point. Wikelman Gonzalez conceivably should be in Worcester sometime

 

It depends on who we add to the MLB roster and how many. It also depends on Mata and Slaten making the 26 out of ST'ing, or not. If everyone is healthy, some good arms may be pushed to AAA, because they have options or are not under Rule 5 control.

Possible 13:

SP?

SP?

Bello

Sale

Pivetta

 

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Houck

Crawford

Whitlock

Mata

Slaten

 

Pushed to AAA, assuming no injuries:

Bernardino

Schreiber

Campbell

 

Others:

Fitts

Kelly

Murphy

Weissert

Walter

Gambrell

Guerrero

Criswell

Hagenman

German

 

AA-Later in season?

Wikelman

Dobbins

Bastardo

Coffey

Penrod

Song

Benitez

Olivarez

Liu

Hoppe

Troye

Denlinger

 

soxprospects.com has Perales starting the year in A+

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

It depends on who we add to the MLB roster and how many. It also depends on Mata and Slaten making the 26 out of ST'ing, or not. If everyone is healthy, some good arms may be pushed to AAA, because they have options or are not under Rule 5 control.

Possible 13:

SP?

SP?

Bello

Sale

Pivetta

 

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Houck

Crawford

Whitlock

Mata

Slaten

 

Pushed to AAA, assuming no injuries:

Bernardino

Schreiber

Campbell

 

Others:

Fitts

Kelly

Murphy

Weissert

Walter

Gambrell

Guerrero

Criswell

Hagenman

German

 

AA-Later in season?

Wikelman

Dobbins

Bastardo

Coffey

Penrod

Song

Benitez

Olivarez

Liu

Hoppe

Troye

Denlinger

 

soxprospects.com has Perales starting the year in A+

 

 

 

 

 

you are sending Schreiber to AAAin favour of Mata?

[Hugh2]

you are sending Schreiber to AAAin favour of Mata?

 

Mata is out of options, don’t think they would have protected him on the 40 man if he was t going to get a shot at making the bullpen in camp. He could also end up being traded.

[notin]

It depends on who we add to the MLB roster and how many. It also depends on Mata and Slaten making the 26 out of ST'ing, or not. If everyone is healthy, some good arms may be pushed to AAA, because they have options or are not under Rule 5 control.

Possible 13:

SP?

SP?

Bello

Sale

Pivetta

 

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Houck

Crawford

Whitlock

Mata

Slaten

 

Pushed to AAA, assuming no injuries:

Bernardino

Schreiber

Campbell

 

Others:

Fitts

Kelly

Murphy

Weissert

Walter

Gambrell

Guerrero

Criswell

Hagenman

German

 

AA-Later in season?

Wikelman

Dobbins

Bastardo

Coffey

Penrod

Song

Benitez

Olivarez

Liu

Hoppe

Troye

Denlinger

 

soxprospects.com has Perales starting the year in A+

 

 

 

 

Soxprospects has Winckowski in Worcester…

[moonslav59]

you are sending Schreiber to AAAin favour of Mata?

 

I would not send Schreiber, Campbell or even Bernardino to AAA for Mata or Slaten, but all 3 have options. If Mata and or Slaten look real good in ST'ing, we might swing a trade, but we might also choose to send a better pitcher to AAA until the first injury, which might be in the first week of the season. It happens all the time.

 

Chances are, 2-3 pitchers will be on the IL, by day one, so there will be room for all.

 

I do like this list of 16 pitchers better than ones from recent years past, assuming the 2 SP'er we add are good.

 

No more wishing for Brasier to be DFA'd. No more DHern's.

 

I even like the "others" list better, but to b e honest, I'm done with the quantity over quality approach. We need some studs.

[notin]

I would not send Schreiber, Campbell or even Bernardino to AAA for Mata or Slaten, but all 3 have options. If Mata and or Slaten look real good in ST'ing, we might swing a trade, but we might also choose to send a better pitcher to AAA until the first injury, which might be in the first week of the season. It happens all the time.

 

Chances are, 2-3 pitchers will be on the IL, by day one, so there will be room for all.

 

I do like this list of 16 pitchers better than ones from recent years past, assuming the 2 SP'er we add are good.

 

No more wishing for Brasier to be DFA'd. No more DHern's.

 

I even like the "others" list better, but to b e honest, I'm done with the quantity over quality approach. We need some studs.

 

I doubt the Sox try to carry both Slaten and Mata, unless one or both are just flat out dominant. There are options, one of which I expect (not counting placing one or both on IL).

 

1. DFA Mata and re-sign him if he clears waivers. (The Ol’ Slip ‘Em Thru Waivers trick)

2. Complete a trade for Slaten. Or a financial transaction.

3. Trade one or both elsewhere. (Least likely.)

 

 

Not sure what other options they have but there are probably a couple…

[mvp 78]

But is there a chewy center?

 

It's nougety.

[mvp 78]

name a single top P prospect in our system

 

Ok?

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects has Winckowski in Worcester…

 

That has them retaining Slaten AND Mata on the 26 man roster which I don't see happening.

[mvp 78]

I would not send Schreiber, Campbell or even Bernardino to AAA for Mata or Slaten, but all 3 have options. If Mata and or Slaten look real good in ST'ing, we might swing a trade, but we might also choose to send a better pitcher to AAA until the first injury, which might be in the first week of the season. It happens all the time.

 

Chances are, 2-3 pitchers will be on the IL, by day one, so there will be room for all.

 

I do like this list of 16 pitchers better than ones from recent years past, assuming the 2 SP'er we add are good.

 

No more wishing for Brasier to be DFA'd. No more DHern's.

 

I even like the "others" list better, but to b e honest, I'm done with the quantity over quality approach. We need some studs.

 

I'd keep Slaten as the 26th man and some one of those guys to AAA. What's the harm in using an option year if you like Slaten? Injuries happen so the guy you send down will be back soon enough. Bernardino is likely to be a one hit wonder candidate anyway.

[mvp 78]

I doubt the Sox try to carry both Slaten and Mata, unless one or both are just flat out dominant. There are options, one of which I expect (not counting placing one or both on IL).

 

1. DFA Mata and re-sign him if he clears waivers. (The Ol’ Slip ‘Em Thru Waivers trick)

2. Complete a trade for Slaten. Or a financial transaction.

3. Trade one or both elsewhere. (Least likely.)

 

 

Not sure what other options they have but there are probably a couple…

 

I would just see which looks best in ST and keep them. Mata has lots of control problems which will be exacerbated in MLB. Slaten probably fits better. Most likely we see a Mata DFA. Mata also has an extensive injury history so he may not even make it out of ST healthy.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox try to carry both Slaten and Mata, unless one or both are just flat out dominant. There are options, one of which I expect (not counting placing one or both on IL).

 

1. DFA Mata and re-sign him if he clears waivers. (The Ol’ Slip ‘Em Thru Waivers trick)

2. Complete a trade for Slaten. Or a financial transaction.

3. Trade one or both elsewhere. (Least likely.)

 

 

Not sure what other options they have but there are probably a couple…

 

I agree, but my assumption was based on an unlikely scenario, where we add 2 solid SP'ers, there are no injuries, and everyone looks sharp in ST'ing, including out of options Mata and Rule 5 guy, Slaten.

 

We have a lot of decent arms from about #11 to #17 on the MLB depth chart.

The "auto 10: (assuming healthy and in form)

Acquisition #1

Acquisition #2

Bello

Martin

Jansen

Crawford

Sale

Houck

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

The "very probable" 2:

Winckowksi (has options)

Schreiber (has options)

 

The leaves 1 slot for opening day 13:

Bernardino (has options)

Campbell (has options)

Mata (no options)

Slaten (Rule 5 restrictions)

 

Others: Fitts, Kelly, Murphy, Weissert, Guerrero, Walter, gambrel, Criswell, Hagenman, German, Booser.

 

I'm not complaining about having decent mid to bottom of the depth chart in MLB & AAA. I'm just wishing we could start moving towards known or expected quality vs the quantity or mediocrity or slightly better than mediocre.

[moonslav59]

I would just see which looks best in ST and keep them. Mata has lots of control problems which will be exacerbated in MLB. Slaten probably fits better. Most likely we see a Mata DFA. Mata also has an extensive injury history so he may not even make it out of ST healthy.

 

Very true.

 

The reason Mata is out of options while never pitching in the bigs, is because we have stuck with him so long. He has some nasty stuff, including a mid 90's fastball, something we seem to lack. His control and injury issues are a clear concern, and even if he looks good in ST'ing, it's no sure bet he sticks on the 26. (He might be part of a trade to a team that does not have a big 26 man roster crunch.)

[mvp 78]

I'm not complaining about having decent mid to bottom of the depth chart in MLB & AAA. I'm just wishing we could start moving towards known or expected quality vs the quantity or mediocrity or slightly better than mediocre.

 

I don't want to overthink the bullpen too much. The bullpen was fine last year and it seems like they've added nicely to the depth. The real problem is the bullpen tiring out from not having reliable starters. Getting 2 horses should fix things in '24.

 

The only bullpen guys that have left are Bleier, Ort, Brasier, Garza, Rodriguez and Robertson. None of those guys were valuable last season. All the important pieces return this season.

[moonslav59]

I don't want to overthink the bullpen too much. The bullpen was fine last year and it seems like they've added nicely to the depth. The real problem is the bullpen tiring out from not having reliable starters. Getting 2 horses should fix things in '24.

 

The only bullpen guys that have left are Bleier, Ort, Brasier, Garza, Rodriguez and Robertson. None of those guys were valuable last season. All the important pieces return this season.

 

Indeed.

 

If we can keep as many of these guys in long relief roles, we should be able to minimize the stress put on our short guys. (Also, if the 2 SP'ers we get give us more than 160 or 170 IP, that will help, too.)

 

Pivetta or Crawford (maybe Houck) will likely be the #5, so the other can be in the pen.

 

Crawford or Pivetta

Houck

Whitlock

 

Mata might be able to go 2-3 IP.

They say they want to "stretch" Wink out into a long man.

 

I really like our pen much more with more these "long guys" in it.

[mvp 78]

Very true.

 

The reason Mata is out of options while never pitching in the bigs, is because we have stuck with him so long. He has some nasty stuff, including a mid 90's fastball, something we seem to lack. His control and injury issues are a clear concern, and even if he looks good in ST'ing, it's no sure bet he sticks on the 26. (He might be part of a trade to a team that does not have a big 26 man roster crunch.)

 

The risk of adding guys to the 40 man too early is that they'll run out of options at some point. Perales is far away and could have a similar issue at some point.

 

Even if Mata has a solid ST, I'd be tempted to DFA him just because his history so far has not been great. Last year was rough.

[mvp 78]

Indeed.

 

If we can keep as many of these guys in long relief roles, we should be able to minimize the stress put on our short guys. (Also, if the 2 SP'ers we get give us more than 160 or 170 IP, that will help, too.)

 

Pivetta or Crawford (maybe Houck) will likely be the #5, so the other can be in the pen.

 

Crawford or Pivetta

Houck

Whitlock

 

Mata might be able to go 2-3 IP.

They say they want to "stretch" Wink out into a long man.

 

I really like our pen much more with more these "long guys" in it.

 

I think it all depends on who they acquire. Pivetta should be the #5 and just leave him there. He's fine enough in that role. Crawford can go into the pen and then move him back into the rotation once Sale's body breaks down again. I wouldn't move Houck or Whitlock back into the rotation. I think there are now other guys you could us in emergency roles (Fitts, Gambrell, Gonzalez).

 

SP1

SP2

Bello

Sale

Pivetta

[moonslav59]

I think it all depends on who they acquire. Pivetta should be the #5 and just leave him there. He's fine enough in that role. Crawford can go into the pen and then move him back into the rotation once Sale's body breaks down again. I wouldn't move Houck or Whitlock back into the rotation. I think there are now other guys you could us in emergency roles (Fitts, Gambrell, Gonzalez).

 

SP1

SP2

Bello

Sale

Pivetta

 

I agree. I think Pivetta fits the 5 role better than the others.

Houck might be better, since we should be able to pull him after 18 batters, with Pivetta, Crawford and Whitlock in the pen, but I still like Pivetta as the #5.

 

One other "long guy" that may continue to surprise is Murphy. Let's see how he starts the year in AAA.