A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Don't forget the "almost-signings" of Eovaldi and Eflin...

 

It's no coincidence that the pitchers that "got away" were the most expensive ones Bloom would have ever signed.

[mvp 78]

C’mon all of you Bobby D haters. How about Coach Cora’s comments about his future. Looks like any fuss over a right handed hitting backup first baseman can be put to rest

 

His comments were very lukewarm on Dalbec IMO. It was basically that he has the opportunity to be a backup. Ok? I don't think it's written in stone.

[notin]

OTOH it's at least as close to being a reality as all the BTV-sanctioned trade ideas that get posted here...

 

Gee, that close. Maybe Breslow should be fired before it happens…

[notin]

His comments were very lukewarm on Dalbec IMO. It was basically that he has the opportunity to be a backup. Ok? I don't think it's written in stone.

 

Basically it said a lot of “Dalbec is going to do exactly what he has been doing for the past couple years. Status Quo. Nothing to see here.”

[mvp 78]

OTOH it's at least as close to being a reality as all the BTV-sanctioned trade ideas that get posted here...

 

C'mon, the Dodgers would totally trade Mookie to the Sox for the grab bag I posted...

[mvp 78]

Basically it said a lot of “Dalbec is going to do exactly what he has been doing for the past couple years. Status Quo. Nothing to see here.”

 

Playing in AAA.

[cp176]

Basically it said a lot of “Dalbec is going to do exactly what he has been doing for the past couple years. Status Quo. Nothing to see here.”

 

It said to me that he had a far better chance of being in Boston as opposed to Worcester. Guess it just depends on the way you interpret what some writers write. Maybe even what players you like as well.

[sk7326]

The Expos went 81-81> 81-81>85-77 to 71-90 his last year in MON. If that is "okay," you should be thrilled with Bloom's record.

 

Montreal, also went from 7th lowest payroll to 12th lowest in his 2nd and third year, which indicates he was allowed to spend more than his first year.

 

With the Marlins, he was allowed to spend a lot.

27th in their first & second years in MLB (1993-5)

17th in his 4th season

7th in the 1997 championship season. He spent big on several FAs.

When the team cut payroll, like the Sox did after 2019, the Marlins went...

54-108

64-98

79-83

76-86

They never reached .500, when he was not allowed to spend.

Okay, he built up the foundation, but nobody wants to hear that about Bloom, now.

 

He, then joined the Tigers. That team was in rebuild mode, as they were 66-96 (20th highest payroll) the year before he took over. The Tigers went...

55-106 in 2002 (19th in payroll)

43-119 in '03 (25th in payroll- showing it's hard for him to win w/o spending, too)

72-90 (23rd in '04)

71-91 (15th in '05) The spending larger had begun, followed by winning...

95-67 (lost WS) 14th in spending is not mega spending, but he did sign a couple FAs)

88-74 (9th in '07) Spent more than '06 and went backwards.

74-88 (3RD IN SPENDING and a losing record.)

86-77 (5th in spending)

81-81 (6th in 2010)

95-67 (lost 1st rd) 10th in spending

88-74 (lost WS) 5th in Spending gets him to the WS.

93-69 (lost 1st rd) 5th

90-72 (lost 1st rd) 5th

74-87 (4th in spending, and he was canned in AUG of 2015.)

Did his time in DET prove he can win without spending large?

 

Please, don't take this as dissing DD. I love the job he did with the Sox and have zero regrets. He gave us the best 3 years in a row in my lifetime. I am just not convinced he could have done wonders with the 2020 team and budget. Better than Bloom? Sure/maybe. Better in 2021? Maybe. Better in 2022 and 2023? Probably.

 

The Marlins thing proved that when a team goes to near the bottom of the league in payroll hilarity ensues - it's why Tampa is special.

 

Now I think what an analysis like this misses is whether Dombrowski is particularly unique in how the teams did when the rebuild was on ... and the evidence is fairly weak one way or the other. My main objection to Dombrowski's firing was that he was fired essentially for doing exactly what the owner wanted him to do when they hired him.

 

I wouldn't call the 3 years of Dombrowski the best in my lifetime as a Sox fan - but I am also spoiled. 2003-2005 and 2007-2009 both do very nicely.

[cp176]

Playing in AAA.

 

I missed that part. I was busy though I guess.

[mvp 78]

I missed that part. I was busy though I guess.

 

Not allowed.

[moonslav59]

The Marlins thing proved that when a team goes to near the bottom of the league in payroll hilarity ensues - it's why Tampa is special.

 

Now I think what an analysis like this misses is whether Dombrowski is particularly unique in how the teams did when the rebuild was on ... and the evidence is fairly weak one way or the other. My main objection to Dombrowski's firing was that he was fired essentially for doing exactly what the owner wanted him to do when they hired him.

 

I wouldn't call the 3 years of Dombrowski the best in my lifetime as a Sox fan - but I am also spoiled. 2003-2005 and 2007-2009 both do very nicely.

 

My point was mainly to show that even DD has no record of doing well, when spending is low or cut drastically.

 

He spent a little more in Montreal and brought the team from 81-81 to 85-77, but ended up with 71 wins, the year he left.

 

The Marlins went from 27th in spending to 7th before winning the '97 WS. Yes, DD built a championship team in a very short time, BUT he had a big budget. When they cut salary the year after, the team went 54-108, yet people want to think he'd have worked a miracle in 2020 based on his "history."

 

 

In Detroit, the team really sucked his first few years (low spending) and only made the WS in '06 after bringing the team payroll from 25th to 14th. Their second WS showing was after reaching 3rd in spending with a 74-88 record, then going uo to 1st in spending 3 years later for the season before their next trip to the WS in '12.

 

Again, I love the guy. I have no issues with what he did. I'm just saying, he has no proven he can win on a low budget. The team must have felt Bloom had that ability.

 

A recap of the CB Tax Budget over recent Sox seasons:

 

$178M in 2013's ring year

$186 under Ben

$199 Ben's last year in 2015

 

$204 DD's first year

$191 his 2nd year

$239 for the 2018 championship

$243 in 2019's disappointing season (DD's last)

 

$185 in 2020 (Bloom's 1st season)

$207 in '21

$236 in '22 (finally back to near DD spending)

$222 in Bloom's final year

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Drohan picked 4th by White Sox!

[mvp 78]

Drohan picked 4th by White Sox!

 

Ryan Fernandez #6 to Cardinals

[mvp 78]

Red Sox PASSED

[bkzwhitestrican]

Half the players taken in the Rule 5 draft came from either the Yanks or Red Sox.

[notin]

Red Sox PASSED

 

With Mata already the equivalent of a Rule 5 pick, this isn’t a surprise…

[mvp 78]

With Mata already the equivalent of a Rule 5 pick, this isn’t a surprise…

 

We'll see if they are going to try to make it work with Mata. He has big time stuff if he can harness it as a reliever.

[moonslav59]

Half the players taken in the Rule 5 draft came from either the Yanks or Red Sox.

 

Just shows how deep and strong our farm pitching is.

[notin]

We'll see if they are going to try to make it work with Mata. He has big time stuff if he can harness it as a reliever.

 

It seems like that’s the plan.

 

Of course why they exposed Drohan, Fernandez and Bastardo while keeping Jacques, Llovera and Weiss will be a mystery for the remainder of my days…

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Red Sox select catcher Michael (ed: "Mickey") Gasper -- a Merrimack, NH native -- from the Yankees' Double-A roster in the minor league Rule 5 draft. He hit .246/.361/.375 between AA and AAA this year.

 

Sunrise. Sunset.

[mvp 78]

Sox lost the following in the MiLB portion:

Johnfrank Salazar

Jose Ramirez

Alexis Hernandez

Railin Perez

Ryan Miller

[moonslav59]

It seems like that’s the plan.

 

Of course why they exposed Drohan, Fernandez and Bastardo while keeping Jacques, Llovera and Weiss will be a mystery for the remainder of my days…

 

I think Mata has a better chance at sticking than Drohan, Fernandez and others.

[mvp 78]

And Ryan Fitzgerald was also taken in the MiLB portion.

[mvp 78]

I think Mata has a better chance at sticking than Drohan, Fernandez and others.

 

Fernandez may not make it out of ST healthy. We'll see if both are returned.

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Overall the Red Sox lost 7 players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft:

 

RHP Jose Ramirez (A) - CWS

C Johnfrank Salazar (A) - STL

OF Alexis Hernandez (A) - TOR

RHP Railin Perez (A) - HOU

RHP Ryan Miller (AA) - LAA

IF Ryan Fitzgerald (AAA) - KC

RHP Brock Bell (A+) - CIN

 

Brock Bell could be one to monitor, but he has just missed so much baseball since being drafted...

[mvp 78]

@EdHand89

Losing nine players in the Rule 5 draft shows just how far the Red Sox farm system has come over the last few years as teams actually want the talent they can't protect.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@IanCundall

Overall the Red Sox lost 7 players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft:

 

RHP Jose Ramirez (A) - CWS

C Johnfrank Salazar (A) - STL

OF Alexis Hernandez (A) - TOR

RHP Railin Perez (A) - HOU

RHP Ryan Miller (AA) - LAA

IF Ryan Fitzgerald (AAA) - KC

RHP Brock Bell (A+) - CIN

 

Brock Bell could be one to monitor, but he has just missed so much baseball since being drafted...

 

Damn -- Fitzy... a legend on his own Woo t-shirts.

 

Brez was on this; he knows the Sox just got a new Fittsy in the Dugo Purge...

[moonslav59]

@EdHand89

Losing nine players in the Rule 5 draft shows just how far the Red Sox farm system has come over the last few years as teams actually want the talent they can't protect.

 

I do think we have made great strides in building up the farm system, particularly its depth, but we seem to have a strong top of the farm and bottom of the farm, but not all that much meaningful promise in the middle.

 

To me, there is a big drop off after our top 3 prospects, as is likely true with most teams, but then I see another big drop after #5-6, and an even bigger one after #10.

 

I may be overly dramatizing this, but our 11-35 prospects don't seem all that much better than our 36-60 prospects or those selected by other teams via Rule 5.

 

We have an abundance of just barely better than average prospects.

[Bellhorn04]

My point was mainly to show that even DD has no record of doing well, when spending is low or cut drastically.

 

Nor does Theo Epstein, really, and he's the GOAT.

[Randy Red Sox]

That is exactly what I have been saying and we don’t have a single top pitching prospect