A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

At the time, I think many felt trading Beni for 5 players/prospects was a sign we were looking more towards the future than 2021. That's not "tanking," but many viewed it as a sign we were punting.

 

Punted all the way to the ALCS.

 

Benintendi was coming off a miserable (albeit abbreviated) 2020 and - and this is the more important part - the Sox had already acquired his replacement in Hunter Renfroe.

 

If the Sox signed Josh Hader and then traded Kenley, would that be a punt?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Benintendi was coming off a miserable (albeit abbreviated) 2020 and - and this is the more important part - the Sox had already acquired his replacement in Hunter Renfroe.

 

If the Sox signed Josh Hader and then traded Kenley, would that be a punt?

 

Point One: technically. Bloom's starting LF on Opening Day 2021 was Marwin Gonzalez. Renfroe was the RF. Dugie, the RF in '20, was in CF. So maybe Renfroe replaced JBJ (the irony).

 

Kike started at 2B... but once he took over CF, Verdugo moved to LF.

 

Point Two: sign me up.

[notin]

Point One: technically. Bloom's starting LF on Opening Day 2021 was Marwin Gonzalez. Renfroe was the RF. Dugie, the RF in '20, was in CF. So maybe Renfroe replaced JBJ (the irony).

 

Kike started at 2B... but once he took over CF, Verdugo moved to LF.

 

Point Two: sign me up.

 

Technically Cora, not Bloom, does those lineups.

 

Point being the Sox sent out one outfielder (Benintendi) and brought in an acceptable replacement (Renfroe). And did so without punting the season!!!

[moonslav59]

Punted all the way to the ALCS.

 

Benintendi was coming off a miserable (albeit abbreviated) 2020 and - and this is the more important part - the Sox had already acquired his replacement in Hunter Renfroe.

 

If the Sox signed Josh Hader and then traded Kenley, would that be a punt?

 

Based on one change at one position? I can't answer.

[moonslav59]

Technically Cora, not Bloom, does those lineups.

 

Point being the Sox sent out one outfielder (Benintendi) and brought in an acceptable replacement (Renfroe). And did so without punting the season!!!

 

The 2020 roster was horrific. We needed a major overhaul for 2021. It's all subjective, and the word "punt" likely means different things to different posters, so we have at least two variables going here, at the same time.

 

Did it look like we were "punting" up to the start of the 2021 season?

 

Hard to answer.

 

It did not look like we were trying to be highly competitve.

[moonslav59]

Bleacher Reports say the Sox have "heavily scouted" Shota Imanaga...

 

Imanaga, 30, profiles more as a middle-of-the-rotation starter than a frontline arm like Yamamoto. He has a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 1,123.2 innings in Japan, and he was the starter for Team Japan in its win over Team USA in the World Baseball Classic title game.

[notin]

Bleacher Reports say the Sox have "heavily scouted" Shota Imanaga...

 

Imanaga, 30, profiles more as a middle-of-the-rotation starter than a frontline arm like Yamamoto. He has a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 1,123.2 innings in Japan, and he was the starter for Team Japan in its win over Team USA in the World Baseball Classic title game.

 

The Old Sox. If Bloom was interested in him, it doesn’t mean Breslow is…

[notin]

The 2020 roster was horrific. We needed a major overhaul for 2021. It's all subjective, and the word "punt" likely means different things to different posters, so we have at least two variables going here, at the same time.

 

Did it look like we were "punting" up to the start of the 2021 season?

 

Hard to answer.

 

It did not look like we were trying to be highly competitve.

 

 

There isA difference between looking like punting and punting. The 2021 team was clearly not punting.

 

And I do think fans can exaggerate what a team needs to compete. As much as the 2020 team needed a major overhaul, what big pieces did they really add that off-season? Renfroe, Whitlock, Richards, Ottavino. One would think there would be a bigger name in there somewhere. Was Kike the big add?

[moonslav59]

Some of the top Free Agents, this winter...

 

Catchers

Mitch Garver, Rangers

Gary Sanchez, Padres

Yasmani Grandal, White Sox

Yan Gomes, Cubs ($6 million club option)

 

First basemen/designated hitters

Shohei Ohtani, Angels

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers

Rhys Hoskins, Phillies

Josh Bell, Marlins ($16.5 million player option)

Donovan Solano, Twins

C.J. Cron, Angels

Brandon Belt, Blue Jays

Joey Votto, Reds ($20 million club option)

Carlos Santana, Brewers

Garrett Cooper, Padres

 

Second basemen

Whit Merrifield, Blue Jays ($18 million mutual option)

Adam Frazier, Orioles

Kolten Wong, Dodgers

 

Third basemen

Matt Chapman, Blue Jays (Devers to 1B/DH and Casas to split DH/1B?)

Max Muncy, Dodgers ($10 million club option)

Jeimer Candelario, Cubs

Justin Turner, Red Sox ($13.4 million player option)

Josh Donaldson, Brewers

Gio Urshela, Angels

Evan Longoria, Diamondbacks

Mike Moustakas, Angels

 

Shortstops

Tim Anderson, White Sox ($14 million club option)

Brandon Crawford, Giants

Jon Berti, Marlins

Javier Báez, Tigers (player opt-out available)

Amed Rosario, Dodgers

Kiké Hernández, Dodgers

Adalberto Mondesí, Red Sox

 

Outfielders

Cody Bellinger, Cubs ($12 million mutual option) Bats LH'd, so trade Dugo?

Jorge Soler, Marlins ($9 million player option) Bats RH'd but sucks on D

Joc Pederson, Giants (Bats LH'd but is a decent defender in CF)

Teoscar Hernández, Mariners (Big RH's bat but sucka on D)

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks

Jason Heyward, Dodgers

Tommy Pham, Diamondbacks

Max Kepler, Twins ($10 million club option)

Jung Hoo Lee, KBO

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Adam Duvall, Red Sox

Michael Conforto, Giants ($18 million player option)

Mark Canha, Brewers ($12.2 million club option)

Michal Brantley, Astros

Kevin Kiermaier, Blue Jays

Eddie Rosario, Braves ($9 million club option)

Robbie Grossman, Rangers

Randal Grichuk, Angels

Michael A. Taylor, Twins

Joey Gallo, Twins

Jesse Winker, Brewers

David Peralta, Dodgers

 

Starting pitchers

Blake Snell, Padres

Marcus Stroman, Cubs ($21 million player option)

Aaron Nola, Phillies

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, NPB

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Eduardo Rodriguez, Tigers (player opt-out available)

Sonny Gray, Twins

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays

Charlie Morton, Braves ($20 million club option)

Jordan Montgomery, Rangers

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs ($16 million club option)

Alex Cobb, Giants ($10 million club option)

Mike Clevinger, White Sox ($12 million mutual option)

Michael Wacha, Padres ($16 million mutual option)

Wade Miley, Brewers ($10 million mutual option)

Seth Lugo, Padres ($7.5 million player option)

Martín Pérez, Rangers

Lance Lynn, Dodgers ($18 million club option)

Lucas Giolito, Guardians

Kenta Maeda, Twins

Michael Lorenzen, Phillies

Tyler Mahle, Twins

 

Relievers

Josh Hader, Padres (Trade Jansen?)

Liam Hendriks, White Sox ($15 million club option)

Craig Kimbrel, Phillies

Aroldis Chapman, Rangers

José Leclerc, Rangers ($6.3 million club option)

Hector Neris, Astros ($8.5 million club option)

Joe Jimenez, Braves

Jordan Hicks, Blue Jays

Matt Moore, Marlins

Reynaldo López, Guardians

Keynan Middleton, Yankees

Nick Martinez, Padres ($16 million club option)

David Robertson, Marlins

Chad Green, Blue Jays ($9 million club option)

Blake Treinen, Dodgers ($7 million club option)

Daniel Hudson, Dodgers ($6.5 million club option)

Will Smith, Rangers

[moonslav59]

There isA difference between looking like punting and punting. The 2021 team was clearly not punting.

 

And I do think fans can exaggerate what a team needs to compete. As much as the 2020 team needed a major overhaul, what big pieces did they really add that off-season? Renfroe, Whitlock, Richards, Ottavino. One would think there would be a bigger name in there somewhere. Was Kike the big add?

 

I guess the term "punting" has some subjective interpretations.

 

I'm sure most MLB fans would have said the 2021 Sox were not "punting," but after that horrific 2020 season, I do not think anyone would say we did enough to make us a solid playoff contender.

 

I thought, due to all the one year signings, the team was looking at 2022, 2023 or beyond, and not 2021. I see that as "punting" or something close to that concept.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There isA difference between looking like punting and punting. The 2021 team was clearly not punting.

 

And I do think fans can exaggerate what a team needs to compete. As much as the 2020 team needed a major overhaul, what big pieces did they really add that off-season? Renfroe, Whitlock, Richards, Ottavino. One would think there would be a bigger name in there somewhere. Was Kike the big add?

 

Lucky or smart? In the Rule V draft, did someone in the front office really think Whitlock, required to be carried on the 26 all year, would pitch like a first-half All-Star set-up man?

 

Did they think Kike would power up into an early version of postseason Adolis (without the nauseating pimping on his HRs)?

 

We certainly don't think Cora knew Kike would become a star centerfielder, based on AC's comments that Hernandez was the best second baseman in the NL...

[notin]

Lucky or smart? In the Rule V draft, did someone in the front office really think Whitlock, required to be carried on the 26 all year, would pitch like a first-half All-Star set-up man?

 

Did they think Kike would power up into an early version of postseason Adolis (without the nauseating pimping on his HRs)?

 

We certainly don't think Cora knew Kike would become a star centerfielder, based on AC's comments that Hernandez was the best second baseman in the NL...

 

 

The bottom line is with just a few simple additions, the team managed to unload their starting LF and go from joke cellar dweller to AL Runner Up in one season. Getting back a couple injured players also help, even if Sale’s contribution was minimal.

 

But really, the Great Overhaul of the 2020 team was Whitlock, Kike, Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards. Granted, that’s nearly 20% of an MLB roster and 12.5% of the 40 man. But also worth noting, Richards didn’t even work out. There was a margin for error…

[moonslav59]

The bottom line is with just a few simple additions, the team managed to unload their starting LF and go from joke cellar dweller to AL Runner Up in one season. Getting back a couple injured players also help, even if Sale’s contribution was minimal.

 

But really, the Great Overhaul of the 2020 team was Whitlock, Kike, Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards. Granted, that’s nearly 20% of an MLB roster and 12.5% of the 40 man. But also worth noting, Richards didn’t even work out. There was a margin for error…

 

Very few thought those additions to the 2020 roster, even with ERod and Sale returning was going to be enough to be favorites to make the playoffs. To Sox fans, IMO, not being favorites to making the playoffs is some sort of "punting," a "bridge year" or GM incompetence. Looking at the winter spending budget of '21-'22, and considering the major budget cuts before the 2020 season, it seemed obvious to most, we were not expecting to make the playoffs, let alone come one game away from making the big dance.

[notin]

Very few thought those additions to the 2020 roster, even with ERod and Sale returning was going to be enough to be favorites to make the playoffs. To Sox fans, IMO, not being favorites to making the playoffs is some sort of "punting," a "bridge year" or GM incompetence. Looking at the winter spending budget of '21-'22, and considering the major budget cuts before the 2020 season, it seemed obvious to most, we were not expecting to make the playoffs, let alone come one game away from making the big dance.

 

Why does what people thought matter? They were clearly not punting. If the W-L record wasn’t enough for some, they even added players at the trade deadline that year.

 

The actual issue is lots of fans (myself included) get too caught up in thinking we understand what it takes to put together a successful MLB roster. And many think their way is the only way.

 

For example, dozens of times over the years I’ve read people post about the importance of starting pitching and how you cannot win without it. Impossible. Can never be done. Then someone points out the 2015 Royals, whose SP sucked. Inevitably the response is “that’s different!! They had a great bullpen!!”

 

No f***ing s*** it’s different. That was the whole point. No one said you’re starting pitching, along with the rest of your team can suck at baseball and still win a title. You do have to do something right; it just doesn’t have to be starting pitching. That’s just one way to win…

[notin]

Based on one change at one position? I can't answer.

 

That’s all the information you’re getting. Make the call…

[Randy Red Sox]

The Old Sox. If Bloom was interested in him, it doesn’t mean Breslow is…

 

i agree that would be the strategy for Bloom but the Sox need to go ALL IN on Yamamoto. Not only is he better but he fits the age group that Bloom was trying to assemble. At 30 with that type of workload behind him would steer me away unless it was a 2-3 yr deal at a reasonable cost. Breslow needs to make SIGNIFIGANT upgrades to the Sox SP. I don't see Nola becoming available and Snell would be costly. I think Yamamoto and a tree for a young mLB ready SP would be the best way to go.

[Randy Red Sox]

Why does what people thought matter? They were clearly not punting. If the W-L record wasn’t enough for some, they even added players at the trade deadline that year.

 

The actual issue is lots of fans (myself included) get too caught up in thinking we understand what it takes to put together a successful MLB roster. And many think their way is the only way.

 

For example, dozens of times over the years I’ve read people post about the importance of starting pitching and how you cannot win without it. Impossible. Can never be done. Then someone points out the 2015 Royals, whose SP sucked. Inevitably the response is “that’s different!! They had a great bullpen!!”

 

No f***ing s*** it’s different. That was the whole point. No one said you’re starting pitching, along with the rest of your team can suck at baseball and still win a title. You do have to do something right; it just doesn’t have to be starting pitching. That’s just one way to win…

 

As you say "no f***ing s***" but the Sox have tried to win for far too long with below average SP.

[notin]

As you say "no f***ing s***" but the Sox have tried to win for far too long with below average SP.

 

Point?

 

The Sox starter ERA was 4.68. The NL Champion DBacks was 4.67.

 

The DBacks starters had better fWAR, but the Sox had better xFIP.

 

And the Sox staff as a whole absolutely crushed the NL Champion DBacks in bWAR, but I can’t separate starters from relievers. Given the difference was 17.3 to 10.4, safe bet the Sox starters were better using this metric.

 

So was starting pitching what held the Sox back this year? A roughly equivalent staff is in the World Series…

[Bellhorn04]

Point?

 

The Sox starter ERA was 4.68. The NL Champion DBacks was 4.67.

 

The DBacks starters had better fWAR, but the Sox had better xFIP.

 

And the Sox staff as a whole absolutely crushed the NL Champion DBacks in bWAR, but I can’t separate starters from relievers. Given the difference was 17.3 to 10.4, safe bet the Sox starters were better using this metric.

 

So was starting pitching what held the Sox back this year? A roughly equivalent staff is in the World Series…

 

Based on their run differential of -15, the DBacks have no more right to be in the World Series than the Red Sox. They were extremely fortunate to make the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Why does what people thought matter? They were clearly not punting. If the W-L record wasn’t enough for some, they even added players at the trade deadline that year.

 

The actual issue is lots of fans (myself included) get too caught up in thinking we understand what it takes to put together a successful MLB roster. And many think their way is the only way.

 

For example, dozens of times over the years I’ve read people post about the importance of starting pitching and how you cannot win without it. Impossible. Can never be done. Then someone points out the 2015 Royals, whose SP sucked. Inevitably the response is “that’s different!! They had a great bullpen!!”

 

No f***ing s*** it’s different. That was the whole point. No one said you’re starting pitching, along with the rest of your team can suck at baseball and still win a title. You do have to do something right; it just doesn’t have to be starting pitching. That’s just one way to win…

 

They were not trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021.

 

We obviously have different ideas of what "punting" means. To me, it means not trying to win this year in hopes that we can be better, next year.

 

We ended up doing much better than expected and were buyers at the deadline.

 

Maybe if I change the word to something other "punt" or "tank" we can find common ground.

 

[moonslav59]

That’s all the information you’re getting. Make the call…

 

If I had to answer, now, I'd say Yes. Hader may cost more than Jansen and will certainly get more than the one year we owe Jansen, but it would be nice to lock up the closer role, longterm. We could get 2024 salary relief by trading Jansen and get something good in return.

 

It's my philosophy to look at our weakest positions to try and upgrade. I'm not shut down on improving positions of strength, but I tend to focus on high need areas, first.

 

Your ideas have been for 3B (Chapman), SS/2B (Ahmed) and Closer (Hader.) I'm sure I missed some other ideas, but those are not areas I'm looking at, first.

[notin]

They were not trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021.

 

We obviously have different ideas of what "punting" means. To me, it means not trying to win this year in hopes that we can be better, next year.

 

We ended up doing much better than expected and were buyers at the deadline.

 

Maybe if I change the word to something other "punt" or "tank" we can find common ground.

 

 

 

What are you basing that rather bold statement on?

[notin]

If I had to answer, now, I'd say Yes. Hader may cost more than Jansen and will certainly get more than the one year we owe Jansen, but it would be nice to lock up the closer role, longterm. We could get 2024 salary relief by trading Jansen and get something good in return.

 

It's my philosophy to look at our weakest positions to try and upgrade. I'm not shut down on improving positions of strength, but I tend to focus on high need areas, first.

 

Your ideas have been for 3B (Chapman), SS/2B (Ahmed) and Closer (Hader.) I'm sure I missed some other ideas, but those are not areas I'm looking at, first.

 

Don’t lump my hypothetical examples in with my ideas on areas of improvement.

 

Hader was a hypothetical example. I doubt he’s on the radar. And he probably shouldn’t be.

 

But several times I mentioned Jansen as a potential trade candidate, and for some reason that always brings you to the conclusion that means punting the season. It doesn’t. It can, but not always.

 

And how you or I would handle it is immaterial. Breslow is on charge now, and I’ve often mentioned him in the Jansen trade posts…

[moonslav59]

What are you basing that rather bold statement on?

 

I don't see it as "bold." We sucked in 2020 and barely added anyone believed to be a significant impact player. I felt we signed a bunch of 1 year deals as a bridge to 2022 and beyond. I did not think we seriously felt we could win. I don't recall you being optimistic that spring, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

What do you base the bold question on? ERod and Sale's return?

[notin]

If I had to answer, now, I'd say Yes. Hader may cost more than Jansen and will certainly get more than the one year we owe Jansen, but it would be nice to lock up the closer role, longterm. We could get 2024 salary relief by trading Jansen and get something good in return.

 

It's my philosophy to look at our weakest positions to try and upgrade. I'm not shut down on improving positions of strength, but I tend to focus on high need areas, first.

 

Your ideas have been for 3B (Chapman), SS/2B (Ahmed) and Closer (Hader.) I'm sure I missed some other ideas, but those are not areas I'm looking at, first.

 

Also I don’t think I’ve mentioned Ahmed in years. Maybe in passing. Maybe he was an option of the Sox move Astor’s to 2b, but it make sense to move Story for such a lackluster player, especially at this stage of his career…

[moonslav59]

Don’t lump my hypothetical examples in with my ideas on areas of improvement.

 

Hader was a hypothetical example. I doubt he’s on the radar. And he probably shouldn’t be.

 

But several times I mentioned Jansen as a potential trade candidate, and for some reason that always brings you to the conclusion that means punting the season. It doesn’t. It can, but not always.

 

And how you or I would handle it is immaterial. Breslow is on charge now, and I’ve often mentioned him in the Jansen trade posts…

 

Of course trading Jansen, but replacing him in kind or better would not be a "punt."

 

It does seem like many or most of your "hypothetical examples" focus on our positions of strength. Sorry, I worded it incorrectly.

[notin]

I don't see it as "bold." We sucked in 2020 and barely added anyone believed to be a significant impact player. I felt we signed a bunch of 1 year deals as a bridge to 2022 and beyond. I did not think we seriously felt we could win. I don't recall you being optimistic that spring, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

What do you base the bold question on? ERod and Sale's return?

 

It’s a bold statement.

 

You are blatantly stating “I don’t see how this team was able to compete so therefore an Ivy League educated baseball career professional obviously did not expect them to as well and was only able to achieve success through luck.”

 

Maybe, just maybe, the handful of people capable of getting these jobs actually do know more about what they are doing than we do.

 

I am not basing that success on anything (except maybe the huge roster overlap with 2018).

 

The difference is I thought maybe he knew what he was doing. And let’s face it, going from winning 40% to winning 60% - all that MLB requires to go from Worst to first, simply is not a big jump…

Edited October 28, 2023 by notin

[notin]

Of course trading Jansen, but replacing him in kind or better would not be a "punt."

 

It does seem like many or most of your "hypothetical examples" focus on our positions of strength. Sorry, I worded it incorrectly.

 

Third and first base defense are position of strength?

 

We have guys at those positions who couldn’t catch VD at the Kardashian compound!!

[moonslav59]

Third and first base defense are position of strength?

 

We have guys at those positions who couldn’t catch VD at the Kardashian compound!!

 

Where did I say defensive positions of strength.

 

Are you saying 3B and 1B are two of our weakest overall positions? If yes, you clearly no longer value fWAR.

[notin]

Where did I say defensive positions of strength.

 

Are you saying 3B and 1B are two of our weakest overall positions? If yes, you clearly no longer value fWAR.

 

 

Defensively they are. In fact, using OAA and RAA, Guerrero is the only 1b worse than Casas. And on those same metrics, no third basemen is worse than Devers.

 

So yes, not only is the Sox defense at these positions a weakness, it’s a league worst weakness.

 

That both players can hit doesn’t change this…