A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Hugh2]

I'm not saying the strategy itself is wrong, but maybe the pics were or at least seem to be today.

 

That’s fine, I don’t think you can evaluate a draft strategy, a pick, who’s picking, who’s scouting etc etc etc based off of a few pics.

 

That would be like judging a baseball player based off of one game. “What!!! Mookie Betts went 0-4” he sucks….trade him.

[Randy Red Sox]

You can't hit on every draft, and the 2020 one was just 4 rounds.

 

Yorke seems to have the best shot out of him, Drohan and Jordan.

 

Since it was Bloom's first draft, and the long wait for good prospects to join the team and mature into fine players was ongoing, that draft just seemed to prolong the wait. The, on top of all this, we drafted mostly HS players, highly, after 2020.

 

Anyway, I hope the day comes you will admit you were wrong, but it looks like you will most likely be right.

 

 

 

that was a high pick though and one that shocked the experts. It was apparently done to insure we could also get Jordan which is also not looking so great. I think it is a waste when you spend that high a pick on a guy who 4 years later is not really that close to {if ever} becoming our starting 2B. Just saying..

[mvp 78]

Imagine being hung up on the 2020 draft

 

Imagine not caring about a draft when that was Bloom’s only apparent function!

[mvp 78]

that was a high pick though and one that shocked the experts. It was apparently done to insure we could also get Jordan which is also not looking so great. I think it is a waste when you spend that high a pick on a guy who 4 years later is not really that close to {if ever} becoming our starting 2B. Just saying..

 

He’ll be in AAA this year.

[moonslav59]

Imagine being hung up on the 2020 draft

 

4 rounds, too, at that.

 

We had the 17th pick, which is pretty much always a stab in the dark, anyway.

[moonslav59]

that was a high pick though and one that shocked the experts. It was apparently done to insure we could also get Jordan which is also not looking so great. I think it is a waste when you spend that high a pick on a guy who 4 years later is not really that close to {if ever} becoming our starting 2B. Just saying..

 

17th is the lower part of the 1st round. Call it middle, if you wish.

 

It looks like we probably did not do very well. So what? Every GM has whole drtafts that amount to squat, and they had way more than 4 rounds- always.

[moonslav59]

This should really be on the prospects thread, but ultimately, it is related to the 2024 roster and years to come, as well.

 

Much of Bloom's work building the farm is hard to grade out, especially since he drafted so many HS players, and it can take some player 4-6 years to start showing they belong in MLB (or longer, even, for some.)

 

It looks like he did a pretty good overall job, despite some picks and signees that don't look like the will amount to much. The vast majority of draft picks, especially those outside the top 10 or 15 never sniff MLB. It should not be a shock to anyone that 4 picks might not ever make the bigs.

 

At the start ot 2023, it looked like Drohan might end up being the prize of the 2020 draft. Jordan has looked good, at times, too. Yorke still has promise and is ranked 6th on SP's. Granted, there is a big drop off from our top 5 to the following group, but no way can we know for sure he will be a bust. (Wu-Yelland looks to be write-off.)

 

Here are the rankings of Bloom's draft picks on SP's:

 

1. Mayer 1st '21

2. Anthony 2nd '22

5. Teel 1st '23

6. Yorke 1st '20

9. Zanetello 2nd '23

13. Drohan 5th '20

16. Meidroth 4th '22

18. Romero 1st '22

19. Hickey 5th '21

22. Jordan 3rd '20

24. Anderson 3rd '23

26. E R-C 4th '21

28. Dobbins 8th '21

29. Guerrero 17th '21

 

3 players from the 2020 draft are in the top 22. 10 draft picks by Bloom are in the top 22 and 3 are from 2020. (He was part of 4 drafts.)

 

Other draft picks currently not on SP's top 30 list are:

Dalton Rogers 3rd '22

Isaac Coffey 10th '22

Alex Hoppe 6th '22

C Troye 12th '21

K Campbell 4th '23

B Brannon 9th '22

Noah Dean 5th '22

P Sikes 18th '21

T Uberstine 19th '21

C Coffey 2nd '22

N Kavadas 11th '21

Matt Duffy 4th '23

Justin Riemer 4th '23

Jacob Webb 14th '21

T McDonough 3rd '21

 

Bloom's notable IFA signings:

(Yoshida '23)

3. Bleis '21

10. Cespedes '23

14. Joh Garcia '22

25. Y Monegro '20

'22 N Yuten

'19 C-J Liu

'21 J Paez

'23 F Arias

'23 Y Ruiz

'22 Y Asencio

'21 E Lira

'21 A Liendo

'22 M Alcantara

 

Most of Bloom's prospects that have made a MLB impact came via trades, MiFA, Waivers or Rule 5:

Graduated:

Whitlock

Winckowski

Wong

Refsnyder

Abreu

EValdez

Bernardino

ZKelly

 

(Not graduated, yet)

C Rosier

Gambrell

Robertson

Hagenman

DHam

L de la Rosa

C Koss

 

 

Edited October 21, 2023 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

He’ll be in AAA this year.

 

wake me when he reaches Boston on a full-time basis. i will be the first to admit being wrong if/when he becomes our everyday 2B

[moonslav59]

wake me when he reaches Boston on a full-time basis. i will be the first to admit being wrong if/when he becomes our everyday 2B

 

Why has a 17th pick in a draft 4 years ago become your obsession?

 

I thought people clinging to the Trey Ball selection mistake went too far, and he was the 7th pick.

Edited October 21, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why has a 17th pick in a draft 4 years ago become your obsession?

 

I thought people clinging to the Trey Ball selection mistake went too far, and he was the 7th pick.

 

Imagine the Red Sox always thinking they could have a two-way player become a both a superstar pitcher and hitter.

 

Trey Ball, Frankie Rodriguez, Casey Kelly -- a veritable trio of Joe Schmoetanis.

[moonslav59]

Imagine the Red Sox always thinking they could have a two-way player become a both a superstar pitcher and hitter.

 

Trey Ball, Frankie Rodriguez, Casey Kelly -- a veritable trio of Joe Schmoetanis.

 

It's often hard to know when you are being serious.

 

How many of those 3 did they draft, thinking there was a good chance they'd do both in the bigs?

 

Why not let Dalbec pitch?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's often hard to know when you are being serious.

 

How many of those 3 did they draft, thinking there was a good chance they'd do both in the bigs?

 

Why not let Dalbec pitch?

 

When I was a young teacher it was hard for some folks to trust me because I was not a parent.

[notin]

wake me when he reaches Boston on a full-time basis. i will be the first to admit being wrong if/when he becomes our everyday 2B

 

He’s only 21.

 

Not like he’s 3 years out of college. M any talented players his age are looking to get drafted this year or next…

[notin]

Imagine the Red Sox always thinking they could have a two-way player become a both a superstar pitcher and hitter.

 

Trey Ball, Frankie Rodriguez, Casey Kelly -- a veritable trio of Joe Schmoetanis.

 

They didn’t try to make any them 2 way players. Even Ball didn’t try outfield until he gave up pitching…

[moonslav59]

When I was a young teacher it was hard for some folks to trust me because I was not a parent.

 

Maybe they just couldn't understand your sarcasm and sense of humor.

[notin]

When I was a young teacher it was hard for some folks to trust me because I was not a parent.

 

That’s ridiculous!! There are so many real reasons not to trust you!!

 

[moonslav59]

They didn’t try to make any them 2 way players.

 

Isn't forcing people to go both ways illegal in Florida and many other states?

[Hugh2]

He’s only 21.

 

Not like he’s 3 years out of college. M any talented players his age are looking to get drafted this year or next…

 

Sh shh shh shhhhhh 🤫 let him sleep.

[moonslav59]

sh shh shh shhhhhh 🤫 let him sleep.

 

lol!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fans sense John Henry isn't all-in on his Red Sox like he once was, because his most recent Chief often didn't spend what it took to land or keep many players viewed as potentially vital to the success of the team. But success doesn't necessarily always entail just winning...

 

... not if you accept that watching, following and rooting for a sports team is a form of entertainment, an interactive hobby, a not-just-passive pastime.

 

Red Sox fans want star players, but love good guys who try hard and at least look and sound like they care as much as their fans. Since baseball is a young man's game, homegrown prospects are the easiest to grow attached to as they develop into big league regulars (and hopefully All-Stars). There are also veteran warriors who show they have what it takes to thrive in Boston and on a big stage.

 

Those are the guys an owner should always pay to keep or recruit. A core to care about. When fan favorites like Betts, Bogaerts, Schwarber and Eovaldi leave, in lieu of cheaper, revolving replacments, there is a detachment.

 

It's not just about rooting for the laundry.

[moonslav59]

.

 

It's not just about rooting for the laundry.

 

Is that essentially what half the team fans do?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is that essentially what half the team fans do?

 

Only the casual fans that jump on the bandwagon when they're in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Looking at cots 2024 estimates and subtracting Turner and Joely from the total, it looks like we might have about $50M to spend to the first tax line and $70M to the second, assuming we try to do either one.

 

We could not offer an arb or two ($5M for Urias?) to save or add more to the winter spending budget, or try to trade a big contract or two ($9M Dugo? or $18M Yoshida or part of the $25.6M owed to Sale.)

 

$70M could probably get us two top SP'ers and a guy like Duvall and a LH RP'er.

 

$50M would likely get us one top SP, Duvall, a LH RP and a 4/5 slot SP'er.

 

We could trade for one piece, so we'd have more to spend on the other slots need.

 

I know I have harped on there really being only 3-4 major slots needing to be filled (5 max,) but in reality, some of the slots I have listed as filled, adequately could use some major upgrades. We won't win with 5-6 studs and 20-21 adequate to good players.

 

[moonslav59]

Only the casual fans that jump on the bandwagon when they're in the playoffs.

 

There are some teams that never sniff the playoffs, but still have some loyal fans. There were some stretches where the Sox teams did not look very competitive, yet the fans still came to the park or watched on TV.

 

Not every team can win. I get the high ticket price argument on why we should spend more to win more than the cheap teams. I get it, but one could argue every team should spend more and more, and then where would we be?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are some teams that never sniff the playoffs, but still have some loyal fans. There were some stretches where the Sox teams did not look very competitive, yet the fans still came to the park or watched on TV.

 

Not every team can win. I get the high ticket price argument on why we should spend more to win more than the cheap teams. I get it, but one could argue every team should spend more and more, and then where would we be?

 

I was responding to what I thought you referenced that half a team's fans root for the laundry. I only added those that do aren't quite the same diehards that, say, post on team message boards every day during football, basketball, hockey and turkey season.

[mvp 78]

Looking at cots 2024 estimates and subtracting Turner and Joely from the total, it looks like we might have about $50M to spend to the first tax line and $70M to the second, assuming we try to do either one.

 

We could not offer an arb or two ($5M for Urias?) to save or add more to the winter spending budget, or try to trade a big contract or two ($9M Dugo? or $18M Yoshida or part of the $25.6M owed to Sale.)

 

$70M could probably get us two top SP'ers and a guy like Duvall and a LH RP'er.

 

$50M would likely get us one top SP, Duvall, a LH RP and a 4/5 slot SP'er.

 

We could trade for one piece, so we'd have more to spend on the other slots need.

 

I know I have harped on there really being only 3-4 major slots needing to be filled (5 max,) but in reality, some of the slots I have listed as filled, adequately could use some major upgrades. We won't win with 5-6 studs and 20-21 adequate to good players.

 

 

SP - 40M Yamamoto & Flaherty?

RP - 5M Hicks?

2B - 5M Rosario?

 

If they trade Dugo:

 

RF/RHB - 7.5M Duvall

[notin]

SP - 40M Yamamoto & Flaherty?

RP - 5M Hicks?

2B - 5M Rosario?

 

If they trade Dugo:

 

RF/RHB - 7.5M Duvall

 

Flaherty? He hasn’t been good for a few seasons now.

 

I think Hicks might exceed $5mill. Rosario is already making $7.8mill and stands as potentially the best SS option on the free agent market, pending the option decisions for Anderson (likely picked up) and Baez (no idea)…

[mvp 78]

Flaherty? He hasn’t been good for a few seasons now.

 

I think Hicks might exceed $5mill. Rosario is already making $7.8mill and stands as potentially the best SS option on the free agent market, pending the option decisions for Anderson (likely picked up) and Baez (no idea)…

 

When you look at the FA list, I have a feeling that any second SP the Sox get is going to look more and more like a 3 or 4. Flaherty had the 8th highest fWAR of the available FA's. If the Sox nab Yamamoto, it means they'll be out on Snell, Nola, Montgomery, Gray and Ohtani. That puts them into the Kyle Gibson/Jack Flaherty tier for he next pitcher.

[moonslav59]

I was responding to what I thought you referenced that half a team's fans root for the laundry. I only added those that do aren't quite the same diehards that, say, post on team message boards every day during football, basketball, hockey and turkey season.

 

I'm not sure what percent of fans root for laundry. Only Red pretends to know that stuff.

 

It might be close to 50%.

 

Not many of those fans come here, I agree.

 

[moonslav59]

SP - 40M Yamamoto & Flaherty?

RP - 5M Hicks?

2B - 5M Rosario?

 

If they trade Dugo:

 

RF/RHB - 7.5M Duvall

 

Would you prefer Rosario to urias, or would you keep both- spending over $10M on the combo?

 

I think I'd rather spend $5M on a LH RP'er and let Joely walk.