9/5/23 Red Sox continue with Rays in Tropicana , 6:40 EDT

[moonslav59]

And when you have so many short starts from the rotation you get way too many performances by the latter.

 

Indeed, but if we had one more long guy like Houck, Pivetta, Crawford, and most years Whitlock, we'd have won a lot more games with them vs:

IP Pitcher ERA

31 Bleier 5.28

25 Jacques 5.11

23 Ort 6.26

21 Bra-Man 7.29

19 Walter 5.79

18 Garza 7.36

17 Llovera 4.67

8 Bear Claw 12.91

3.0 Littell 9.0

2.0 Faria 22.00

2.0 Lamet 13.50

 

That's over 160 IP, some of which were mop up, so if we replaced 80-100 of those with just a 4.50 long guy, we'd have more wins and less stress on the better part of our pen.

 

[moonslav59]

The problem definitely resides in the rotation first and foremost. The worst two guys in your bullpen aren't going to tank your season.

 

No doubt, but there are more than just 2 areas (SP & untimely hitting) that have cost us 5-6 games.

 

I'd say...

 

8-12 games Defense

5-8 games first or second guy in from the pen.

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt, but there are more than just 2 areas (SP & untimely hitting) that have cost us 5-6 games.

 

I'd say...

 

8-12 games Defense

5-8 games first or second guy in from the pen.

 

That's 13-20 games.

 

20 more wins would give us the best record in baseball.

 

No way you can back this up.

[moonslav59]

That's 13-20 games.

 

20 more wins would give us the best record in baseball.

 

No way you can back this up.

 

How many wins does 60+ opps hits turned into outs get a team? That is the difference between our OAA and some of the better defensive teams. We ar 77 worse than the best team and about 50 worse than the mean.

 

It's hard to prove the 7th and 8th RP losses turned to win, but change the ERA from about 7.00 to 4.50 for 160 IP and do the math. I think that comes to about 45 runs (not outs.)

 

I'd guess it's closer to 20 than 12-13, but I'm pretty sure it's 13.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

And when you have so many short starts from the rotation you get way too many performances by the latter.

 

 

and the s***** defense makes it harder for a shaky pitching staff to go deeper into games. but some people say defense doesn't matter.

[moonslav59]

and the s***** defense makes it harder for a shaky pitching staff to go deeper into games. but some people say defense doesn't matter.

 

It's hard to keep track of how many 4 and 5 out innings our pitchers had to get through, and it seems like a heck of a lot more than the -49 OAA number.

 

Perhaps, I am counting possible outs for every play, even somewhat tough to really tough ones I see opposing defense make against us as an extra out, but I'm pretty sure, even being conservative, it has to be 49 or more missed outs. It seems like more than 1 every 3 games, though.

[Bellhorn04]

How many wins does 60+ opps hits turned into outs get a team? That is the difference between our OAA and some of the better defensive teams. We ar 77 worse than the best team and about 50 worse than the mean.

 

It's hard to prove the 7th and 8th RP losses turned to win, but change the ERA from about 7.00 to 4.50 for 160 IP and do the math. I think that comes to about 45 runs (not outs.)

 

I'd guess it's closer to 20 than 12-13, but I'm pretty sure it's 13.

 

 

FanGraphs WAR calculations convert 10 runs to 1 win.

[Bellhorn04]

We've got players who have been good on O but lousy on D, like Casas, Yoshida, Duvall etc.

 

What it comes down to is...if we had better players, we'd be a better team!

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs WAR calculations convert 10 runs to 1 win.

 

Okay, how many hits turned to outs does it take to save a run? (Defence)

 

So, the 45 "extra runs" let up by our scrub pitchers might have led to 4-5 more losses. (I said 5-8.)

[mvp 78]

We've got players who have been good on O but lousy on D, like Casas, Yoshida, Duvall etc.

 

What it comes down to is...if we had better players, we'd be a better team!

 

Casas may get better. Duvall is a decent corner OF, but a horrible CF. Yoshida is a DH.

[mvp 78]

Okay, how many hits turned to outs does it take to save a run?

 

Depends.

[moonslav59]

We've got players who have been good on O but lousy on D, like Casas, Yoshida, Duvall etc.

 

What it comes down to is...if we had better players, we'd be a better team!

 

Better all around players, yes, especially at key defensive positions like SS.

[jad]

Has the RS season deteriorated to such a point that we are now discussing (in part, unironically it seems) the issue of whether having better players makes for a better team?

[moonslav59]

Has the RS season deteriorated to such a point that we are now discussing (in part, unironically it seems) the issue of whether having better players makes for a better team?

 

That's such an absurd concept.

[Maxbialystock]

No doubt, but there are more than just 2 areas (SP & untimely hitting) that have cost us 5-6 games.

 

I'd say...

 

8-12 games Defense

5-8 games first or second guy in from the pen.

 

This is not credible because you have zero hard evidence. Go to all the box scores--or better still the pitch by pitch replay you can get on mlb.com--and cite specific examples of 8-12 games lost specifically because of the defense and nothing else.

 

I hasten to add that the Sox lose in 9 innings last night without the two Rays errors which led to 2 unearned runs. The two Sox errors led to 0 unearned runs.

 

The Sox are ranked 21st in team ERA. I know you and many others despise ERA, but over time it's been a consistent marker on whether or not the Sox will get to the postseason. Below are the Sox rankings in team ERA and whether or not they made it to the postseason.

 

2022, 25th, no

2021, 15th, yes

2019, 19th, no

2018, 8th, yes

2017, 4th, yes

2016, 9th, yes

2015, 25th, no

2014, 23d, no

2013, 14th, yes

2012, 27th, no

2011, 22d, no

2010, 22d, no

2009, 16th, yes

2008, 9th, yes

2007, 2d, yes

2006, 26th, no

2005, 24th, yes

2004, 11th, yes

2003, 17th, yes

2002, 7th, no

 

2005 (ERA 24th, yes postseason), and 2002 (ERA 7th, no postseason) are the two exceptions in 20 seasons. I skipped 2020 because I don't think it was a real season. But, FYI, the Sox ERA was 28th and they didn't make it to the postseason.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

This is not credible because you have zero hard evidence. Go to all the box scores--or better still the pitch by pitch replay you can get on mlb.com--and cite specific examples of 8-12 games lost specifically because of the defense and nothing else.

 

I hasten to add that the Sox lose in 9 innings last night without the two Rays errors which led to 2 unearned runs. The two Sox errors led to 0 unearned runs.

 

Did the Sox misplays on D cost us runs or not?

 

In a tied agme after 9, I'm saying we make those plays, we win.

 

It has nothing to do with how we scored.

 

I already proved we might have lost 5 games from our scrubs in the 7-8 slots of the pen.

I have evidence to prove our D has made 60-77 less outs on D than our top contenders in 139 games.

 

I showed evidence.

 

BTW, box scores don't note plays that weren't made that should have been made.

 

I've watched every game. 77 less outs made is being conservative.

 

I did not ever say defense and nothing else, just like you can't say x amount of games were lost on pitching and nothing else or batting and nothing else.

 

[moonslav59]

This is not credible because you have zero hard evidence. Go to all the box scores--or better still the pitch by pitch replay you can get on mlb.com--and cite specific examples of 8-12 games lost specifically because of the defense and nothing else.

 

I hasten to add that the Sox lose in 9 innings last night without the two Rays errors which led to 2 unearned runs. The two Sox errors led to 0 unearned runs.

 

Did you watch the game? The play Duvall misplayed was a sure third out and not called an error. A runner scored on the misplay and the next guy homered. It should have been 3 unearned runs. If you can't count that one as poor D leading to runs, I can never convince you of anything.

 

Again....

 

With average defense, I am convinced we'd have won 8-9 more games, minimum. With slightly above average: 9-11. Great D 11-12 or more.

 

Box scores show errors and unearned runs. We've already seen dozens of plays that used to be called errors caalled hits, this year, not to mention all the plays they've never called erros, like an OF'er circling a fly ball and never touching it.

 

Opposing teams had a .309 BAbip vs us, this year. That means about 31% of all balls put in play were hits, while 60% were outs.

 

Since 183 of the 1239 hits were for HRs, 1066 were balls hit for singles, doubles or triples. (That's not counting reach on errors, and we have had 94, some of which did not allow a baserunner to get on base, but did allow him to advance a base or two.)

 

The overly generous scorekeepers already shows our errors,alone led to 50 unearned runs, which in theory led to 5 losses. I'm 100% certain, uncalled errors that were clear misplays led to another 30 runs and 3 losses, and marginal plays not made led to 1-3 more losses.

 

Of course, no game is one or lost on one or even 2 plays, but losses could have been converted to wins with better pitching, better batting, better defense and better baserunning.

[moonslav59]

This is not credible because you have zero hard evidence. Go to all the box scores--or better still the pitch by pitch replay you can get on mlb.com--and cite specific examples of 8-12 games lost specifically because of the defense and nothing else.

 

I hasten to add that the Sox lose in 9 innings last night without the two Rays errors which led to 2 unearned runs. The two Sox errors led to 0 unearned runs.

 

The Sox are ranked 21st in team ERA. I know you and many others despise ERA, but over time it's been a consistent marker on whether or not the Sox will get to the postseason. Below are the Sox rankings in team ERA and whether or not they made it to the postseason.

 

2022, 25th, no

2021, 15th, yes

2019, 19th, no

2018, 8th, yes

2017, 4th, yes

2016, 9th, yes

2015, 25th, no

2014, 23d, no

2013, 14th, yes

2012, 27th, no

2011, 22d, no

2010, 22d, no

2009, 16th, yes

2008, 9th, yes

2007, 2d, yes

2006, 26th, no

2005, 24th, yes

2004, 11th, yes

2003, 17th, yes

2002, 7th, no

 

2005 (ERA 24th, yes postseason), and 2002 (ERA 7th, no postseason) are the two exceptions in 20 seasons. I skipped 2020 because I don't think it was a real season. But, FYI, the Sox ERA was 28th and they didn't make it to the postseason.

 

Max. For the hundreth time I totally agree pitching is the main issue.

 

That does not mean defense can't have accounted for 8-12 losses and pitching 30-50.

 

Why are you showing me these numbers? We agree.

 

BTW, there has been a clear change in the way plays are ruled hits vs errors in 2023, so our ERA would be much better had 20-30 hits been called errors, and it might be more than 30.

[dgalehouse]

He saved 30 games this year, they’re asking him to do something he hasn’t done all year and he’s garbage?

 

In hindsight, Jansen probably should not have pitched on Sunday. At this point in his career, he probably needs the rest more than he needs the work. But I really can't blame Cora. He can't predict the future and the team is at the point where they need to lock down every win they can.

[moonslav59]

In hindsight, Jansen probably should not have pitched on Sunday. .

 

BINGO, and someone pointed that out, at the time. We did not need him, that game.

 

Another ding on Cora.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Has the RS season deteriorated to such a point that we are now discussing (in part, unironically it seems) the issue of whether having better players makes for a better team?

 

Hey -- Johnny Pesky said it makes the beer taste better and that makes the women look better... what are we waiting for!

[vegasbob]

BINGO, and someone pointed that out, at the time. We did not need him, that game.

 

Another ding on Cora.

 

Thanks. That was almost a Capt Obvious call. Why was Jansen used in a game almost anyone else could have closed ? Cora may have thought he needed the work, but also realize Jansen has some leg related issue, hamstring/sore knee ??. AC knew the Rays series was critical.

Edited September 6, 2023 by vegasbob

[Bellhorn04]

I was perplexed by using Jansen in Sunday's game too, but I have to think the other high-leverage guys were deemed unavailable. Schreiber and Bernardino had already pitched. Winckowski threw 19 pitches the previous game. They've been really careful with Martin.

 

Could have used one of the low-leverage guys but you know how fast they can cause trouble.

 

It's definitely one of those things that deserved an explanation. Not sure if Cora was asked about it or not.

[Maxbialystock]

Max. For the hundreth time I totally agree pitching is the main issue.

 

That does not mean defense can't have accounted for 8-12 losses and pitching 30-50.

 

Why are you showing me these numbers? We agree.

 

BTW, there has been a clear change in the way plays are ruled hits vs errors in 2023, so our ERA would be much better had 20-30 hits been called errors, and it might be more than 30.

 

No, you don't agree because you insist that ERA's are bunk because fielders make tons of mistakes that aren't counted as errors. You only beat the drum on defense, not on pitching or on hitting.

[Maxbialystock]

BINGO, and someone pointed that out, at the time. We did not need him, that game.

 

Another ding on Cora.

 

BINGO my aunt fanny. Before we go after the manager for something he did on Sunday, let's look at what his players did 2 days later in last night's game--

 

1. Starter Crawford stunk, giving up 5 ER in 3.2 innings.

2. Reliever Jacques did Crawford no favors by coming in with the bases loaded and 2 outs and HBP'ing the first two batters he faced.

3. After that, the bullpen, including Jacques, held the Rays scoreless for 6.1 innings. Fantastic!

4. However, the lineup scored a grand total of 3 earned runs in the game because the other 2 runs occurred because of 2 errors by the Rays.

5. Even with a man on 2d base and no one out in the 10th inning, the Sox failed to score.

6. I did not see Duvall fail to catch something, but did see him make an extremely clutch throw from RF to get the final out in the 10th inning and prevent the Rays from scoring the winning run.

7. Before Jansen gave up that dinger in the 11th, the Sox lineup again failed to bring a man home from 2d base with no one out.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this loss is on Crawford, Jacques, and, once again, the Sox weak hitting lineup that only scored 3 earned runs and then twice failed to bring a guy home from 2d base in the 10th and 11th innings.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

BINGO my aunt fanny. Before we go after the manager for something he did on Sunday, let's look at what his players did 2 days later in last night's game--

 

1. Starter Crawford stunk, giving up 5 ER in 3.2 innings.

2. Reliever Jacques did Crawford no favors by coming in with the bases loaded and 2 outs and HBP'ing the first two batters he faced.

3. After that, the bullpen, including Jacques, held the Rays scoreless for 6.1 innings. Fantastic!

4. However, the lineup scored a grand total of 3 earned runs in the game because the other 2 runs occurred because of 2 errors by the Rays.

5. Even with a man on 2d base and no one out in the 10th inning, the Sox failed to score.

6. I did not see Duvall fail to catch something, but did see him make an extremely clutch throw from RF to get the final out in the 10th inning and prevent the Rays from scoring the winning run.

7. Before Jansen gave up that dinger in the 11th, the Sox lineup again failed to bring a man home from 2d base with no one out.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this loss is on Crawford, Jacques, and, once again, the Sox weak hitting lineup that only scored 3 earned runs and then twice failed to bring a guy home from 2d base in the 10th and 11th innings.

 

 

The Sox scored the ghost runner in the 11th inning…

[Maxbialystock]

The Sox scored the ghost runner in the 11th inning…

 

You're absolutely right. How could I forget the magnificent baserunning by Refsnyder going from 2d to 3d on that wild pitch? Or his beautifully timed dash home when the Rays 2d baseman dropped the pop fly? I hereby apologize to the entire Sox lineup for not appreciating their great clutch hitting at the Trop.

 

P.S. Ghost runner fits.

[moonslav59]

No, you don't agree because you insist that ERA's are bunk because fielders make tons of mistakes that aren't counted as errors. You only beat the drum on defense, not on pitching or on hitting.

 

I agree that pitching is the main issue- same as you. I've been beating the drum on pitching every year for 50 years, Max.

 

The reason we did not win, this year, is because we did not add 2 capable SP'ers. We could have won with 2, despite the poor defense.

 

That does not change the fact or minimize the impact our poor D had on our wins and losses, and be enough that we could have been a contender.

 

Do you deny less erros are being charged, this year?

 

Errors called per game:

.060 in '21

.059 in '22

.057 in '23

 

it's a fact.

 

It does affect the ERA, but ours would still suck, even with average D- just not as badly.

 

You seem to deny the chance there could be more than 1 or 2 reasons a team can lose.

 

Nobody is saying defense is the number one reason. I don't think anyone is saying it's even close to pitching, namely the rotation.

 

I have posted dozens and dozens of posts about our s***** rotation.

 

The main reason I have been talking about defense, recently is in response to your denying it has had a significant effect.

Edited September 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

BINGO my aunt fanny. Before we go after the manager for something he did on Sunday, let's look at what his players did 2 days later in last night's game--

 

1. Starter Crawford stunk, giving up 5 ER in 3.2 innings.

2. Reliever Jacques did Crawford no favors by coming in with the bases loaded and 2 outs and HBP'ing the first two batters he faced.

3. After that, the bullpen, including Jacques, held the Rays scoreless for 6.1 innings. Fantastic!

4. However, the lineup scored a grand total of 3 earned runs in the game because the other 2 runs occurred because of 2 errors by the Rays.

5. Even with a man on 2d base and no one out in the 10th inning, the Sox failed to score.

6. I did not see Duvall fail to catch something, but did see him make an extremely clutch throw from RF to get the final out in the 10th inning and prevent the Rays from scoring the winning run.

7. Before Jansen gave up that dinger in the 11th, the Sox lineup again failed to bring a man home from 2d base with no one out.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this loss is on Crawford, Jacques, and, once again, the Sox weak hitting lineup that only scored 3 earned runs and then twice failed to bring a guy home from 2d base in the 10th and 11th innings.

 

Yes seven times. That's why we lost. We also lost because Jansen sucked.

 

Why do only your reason count and ours go to Aunt Fanny?

 

We won't know how Jansen might have done had he not pitched on Sunday. That does not mean we can't hypothesis about it.

 

There are many reasons we lost- one was Jansen.

 

You bashed me about saying the runs allowed to score because of Duvall's blunder, and now say you did not see it.

 

Please stop, Max.

 

All 3 runs scored should have been unearned vs Crawford in that inning. The next 2 were allowed to score by Jacques on HBPs with the bases loaded. I could easly cry, "Send your Craford stunk comment to Uncle Benny!"

[notin]

You're absolutely right. How could I forget the magnificent baserunning by Refsnyder going from 2d to 3d on that wild pitch? Or his beautifully timed dash home when the Rays 2d baseman dropped the pop fly? I hereby apologize to the entire Sox lineup for not appreciating their great clutch hitting at the Trop.

 

P.S. Ghost runner fits.

 

If your gripe is that they didn’t score, the acceptable argument upon being proven wrong is not “but they didn’t score well enough.”

 

I mean, you’re trying to argue that the offense and not the defense was the problem in a game that went to extra innings after Wilyer Abreu fell down losing a potential inning-ending routine fly ball in the dome roof that went for a run scoring triple and was part of a 3 run inning…

Edited September 6, 2023 by notin