Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

I've given my opinion on Duran.

 

I responded to your comment about "cherry-picking."

 

Duran has been highly inconsistent. He has changed his approach almost as many times as years in our system. His defense showed a major change, almost overnight. I think it is fair to say, more time is needed. It's not like I'm changing my criteria. I'm pretty consistent on thinking what others think is a sufficient sample size as not being one, to me.

 

I'm all for starting the season with Duran and Refsnyder platooning in LF and Yoshida at DH and insurance, in case the LF situation implodes.

 

We are not that far away from a time when just about this entire board was done with Duran or very close to it.

 

I'm not short-changing what he did. I'm handing him the LF job for most of the games and am totally willing to let him earn a non-platoon role. If refsnyder was not our best hitter vs LHPs since the start of 2022, I'd be okay with Duran FT in LF.

 

I don't want him in CF or RF.

 

Either way it will be Cora’s decision so we’ll have to wait to see what he comes up with.

[Bellhorn04]

I've given my opinion on Duran.

 

I responded to your comment about "cherry-picking."

 

Duran has been highly inconsistent. He has changed his approach almost as many times as years in our system. His defense showed a major change, almost overnight. I think it is fair to say, more time is needed. It's not like I'm changing my criteria. I'm pretty consistent on thinking what others think is a sufficient sample size as not being one, to me.

 

I'm all for starting the season with Duran and Refsnyder platooning in LF and Yoshida at DH and insurance, in case the LF situation implodes.

 

We are not that far away from a time when just about this entire board was done with Duran or very close to it.

 

I'm not short-changing what he did. I'm handing him the LF job for most of the games and am totally willing to let him earn a non-platoon role. If refsnyder was not our best hitter vs LHPs since the start of 2022, I'd be okay with Duran FT in LF.

 

I don't want him in CF or RF.

 

I'm only talking about his offense.

 

2023 team leaders in offensive RAR per FanGraphs:

 

Casas 15.6 (502 PA)

Devers 14.9 (656)

Duran 14.6 (362)

Duvall 9.7 (353)

Turner 7.4 (626)

Abreu 2.9 (85)

Yoshida 1.6 (580)

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's WAR for 2021 was 0.2. Duran's this year was 2.2. Huge difference.

 

Nevertheless, your point is valid. Sox need another good year from Duran before signing him longer term.

 

I was responding to the point about Durans OPS over a 362 sample size.

 

Dalbec's poor D and positional offset killed his WAR.

 

I loved what I saw from Duran, and I am excited about how he might do in 2024. His improvement on D was near miraculous.

 

What's not to like?

 

My point is, the rest of the profile on Duran makes this 360 sample size something I need to see more of to believe in an $80M deal.

 

I would not sign him to $60M/5. He has 4 years left at pre-arb and arb costs, already.

[moonslav59]

I'm only talking about his offense.

 

2023 team leaders in offensive RAR per FanGraphs:

 

Casas 15.6 (502 PA)

Devers 14.9 (656)

Duran 14.6 (362)

Duvall 9.7 (353)

Turner 7.4 (626)

Abreu 2.9 (85)

Yoshida 1.6 (580)

 

He was amazing on offense in about a half season's PAs.

[Maxbialystock]

Part of the reason Refsnyder's fWAR is so low, is because he started more games vs RHPs in 2022 than LHPs. He's a negative vs RHPs, and that is a serious issue that complicates a 26 man roster and a manager's in-game choices. I get that, but to me, this outweighs the problems, and we have some really crappy hitters vs LHPs:

 

2022-2023 v LHPs: (OF in Red)

1.038 Bogey (not on team)

.998 JD (not on team)

.900 Turner (likely not on 2024 team)

.889 Refsnyder

.814 Vaz (not on team)

.784 Devers

.783 Story

.777 Cassas

.772 Reyes

.756 Duvall (FA after '23)

.746 Yoshida

.652 Verdugo

.611 Duran

.477 Wong

 

I love Duran's speed, and he started showing he could hit lefties better in 2023, but I'm not benching Ref vs LHPs, and I don't want ref or Duran playing CF or RF, but I could see benching Dugo vs LHPs and not Duran.

 

 

Too many lefty bats in the outfield--Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu--when the Sox need righty power and already have Casas and Devers, both lefty bats, anchoring the infield.

 

This year's one righty bat was Turner. Duvall didn't play enough, which is standard for him--plus he's 35. For next year we have Story and presumably Rafaela. I would not spend big to keep Turner or Duvall.

[Maxbialystock]

I was responding to the point about Durans OPS over a 362 sample size.

 

Dalbec's poor D and positional offset killed his WAR.

 

I loved what I saw from Duran, and I am excited about how he might do in 2024. His improvement on D was near miraculous.

 

What's not to like?

 

My point is, the rest of the profile on Duran makes this 360 sample size something I need to see more of to believe in an $80M deal.

 

I would not sign him to $60M/5. He has 4 years left at pre-arb and arb costs, already.

 

I'd forgotten about the 4 years of control (pre-arb and arb).

[Bellhorn04]

Even better, folks, Duran has 5 years of control left. One of those 4 year arb guys.

[notin]

Too many lefty bats in the outfield--Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu--when the Sox need righty power and already have Casas and Devers, both lefty bats, anchoring the infield.

 

This year's one righty bat was Turner. Duvall didn't play enough, which is standard for him--plus he's 35. For next year we have Story and presumably Rafaela. I would not spend big to keep Turner or Duvall.

 

Duvall is actually a pretty good fit given his right-handed power and that he has the defensive skillset to handle RF at Fenway better than most other available options…

[Old Red]

Duvall is actually a pretty good fit given his right-handed power and that he has the defensive skillset to handle RF at Fenway better than most other available options…

 

I don’t think Duvall would sign again with the Red Sox unless he was going to be pretty much be FT.

[Hugh2]

I’m open to signing Duval to come back, but if it’s a no then I’d be perfectly fine with Harrison Bader.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m open to signing Duval to come back, but if it’s a no then I’d be perfectly fine with Harrison Bader.

 

Bader would be better fielder, lower OPS than Duvall, does have some pop as shown in the 2022 postseason.

[moonslav59]

I'd forgotten about the 4 years of control (pre-arb and arb).

 

He's 27, which is not old, but the 4 years will bring him to his age 31 year. That is still "prime," but on the cusp of the down slope, in general.

 

I'm happy we have 4 years of control. I don't see a rush to extend, now. If he explodes in 2024, I'll regret having that opinion, but we'll still have 3 more years after '24.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Duvall would sign again with the Red Sox unless he was going to be pretty much be FT.

 

If they sign Duvall and trade Dugo, he'd be the FT RF'er.

 

It would take Duran, Rafaela and Abreu all doing significantly better than him to dislodge him from his FT position.

 

2023 PAs and OPS

602 Dugo .745

580 Yoshi .783 (to DH?)

362 Duran .828

353 Duvall .834

243 Refsny .682

89 Rafaela .666

85 Abreu .862

 

It looks obvious that a healthy Duvall is locked into a FT OF slot, even with Dugo and Duran on the roster.

 

[notin]

I don’t think Duvall would sign again with the Red Sox unless he was going to be pretty much be FT.

 

Assuming anyone else would give him a full time job. Boston might be his best fit.

 

And if the Sox move Verdugo or Duran, Duvall has a clearer path to starting full time than he would on most teams…

[notin]

Bader would be better fielder, lower OPS than Duvall, does have some pop as shown in the 2022 postseason.

 

I’m not sold on small sample sizes for his pop. He’s a career .396 SLG with a .153 ISO. He can pop a bit I suppose. But he’s a limited hitter.

 

If you’re looking for a RH hitter, Bader is probably not the guy. But I like him because he’s a good overall ballplayer and a big defensive step up…

[Hugh2]

Bader would be better fielder, lower OPS than Duvall, does have some pop as shown in the 2022 postseason.

 

A much better fielder I think, but he would still be a good. At vs. RHP, and not much of a drop off at all from Duval if used properly, Bader actually has a better career OPS vs. LHP.

[Hugh2]

I’m not sold on small sample sizes for his pop. He’s a career .396 SLG with a .153 ISO. He can pop a bit I suppose. But he’s a limited hitter.

 

If you’re looking for a RH hitter, Bader is probably not the guy. But I like him because he’s a good overall ballplayer and a big defensive step up…

 

If used correctly he’s fine. Career .824 vs LHP and a .936 in 2023. With a lefty heavy outfield he’s the perfect fit

[moonslav59]

If used correctly he’s fine. Career .824 vs LHP and a .936 in 2023. With a lefty heavy outfield he’s the perfect fit

 

Like as a platoon and defensive replacement?

[Hugh2]

Like as a platoon and defensive replacement?

 

Yup

[notin]

Like as a platoon and defensive replacement?

 

Either Bader or Duvall could platoon, but given the current and likely state of the Sox outfield, a full time starting job isn’t hard to imagine…

[moonslav59]

Either Bader or Duvall could platoon, but given the current and likely state of the Sox outfield, a full time starting job isn’t hard to imagine…

 

I would not sign either with the idea of a platoon.

 

I would sign either to play FT, however.

[Randy Red Sox]

Too many lefty bats in the outfield--Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu--when the Sox need righty power and already have Casas and Devers, both lefty bats, anchoring the infield.

 

This year's one righty bat was Turner. Duvall didn't play enough, which is standard for him--plus he's 35. For next year we have Story and presumably Rafaela. I would not spend big to keep Turner or Duvall.

 

i would sign Duvall for 2 years. He actually was a pretty good fit. The Sox HAVE to spend this offseason.

[moonslav59]

i would sign Duvall for 2 years. He actually was a pretty good fit. The Sox HAVE to spend this offseason.

 

There are so few good OF'ers and RHBs on the market, it might take 3 years to get Duvall.

[Maxbialystock]

I’m open to signing Duval to come back, but if it’s a no then I’d be perfectly fine with Harrison Bader.

 

Harrison Bader can't hit. Lifetime OPS is .703. Dugo would be better.

[Maxbialystock]

There are so few good OF'ers and RHBs on the market, it might take 3 years to get Duvall.

 

He looked pretty good this year, but at 35 he is showing some frailty--92 games this year, 86 last year.

 

I'm all for righty bats, but maybe Rafaela, Story, and Reyes/Urias are the best options for next year. Bader's hitting does not impress me--Dugo would be better.

[moonslav59]

Harrison Bader can't hit. Lifetime OPS is .703. Dugo would be better.

 

What worries me most about Bader is his .635 OPS from 2022 to 2023, and the fact he only had 657 PAs in those two seasons, combined.

 

He's only 29, so maybe he can get back to the .784 OPS he had from 2020-2021 or even the .745 he had from 2018-2021.

 

His major plus is the .824 career OPS vs LHPs, but that is the short-side platoon slit, and his defense doesn't quite make him a FT player, IMO. (.667 v RHPs) I would not pay him what he will get to be a platoon/defensive replacement CF'er.

 

He does beat the crap out of Dugo's career .665 OPS vs LHPs, and he can play CF very well, but to me, that is not enough.

[Larry Cook]

Any interest in Ames Rosario at short and story at 2nd????

[jad]

i would sign Duvall for 2 years. He actually was a pretty good fit. The Sox HAVE to spend this offseason.

 

He's a .230 lifetime hitter. Yup. Fits right in.

[Randy Red Sox]

Any interest in Ames Rosario at short and story at 2nd????

 

No because we have Mayer coming in no later than 2025 and Story will then slide over to 2B

[Randy Red Sox]

He's a .230 lifetime hitter. Yup. Fits right in.

 

 

and so your suggestion is ??????????