Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

I'm not thrilled with Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B and do worry about Story's health at SS.

I'm not thrilled with our corner IF or LF defense, either.

I'm worried about CF and the fact that Dugo has just one year remaining.

I'm a little worried about our lack of a great LH RP'er, although many of our RH RP'ers do very well or better vs RHBs.

I'm worried about the loss of big RH'd bats Turner & Duvall

 

All of these pale in comparison to my concerns about the rotation.

 

If I had to assign a percentage based on my concerns, I might break it down like this:

 

Option A:

40% Solid #2 type SP

40% Solid #2 type SP

16% Solid #4 type SP

3% RHB (CF, RF, if we trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

Option B:

60% Ace

36% Solid #2 SP

3% RHB (CF, RF-trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

(This is not a breakdown of money allocation- just my perception of our needs.)

[notin]

Chapman at third, make it 60 HR and 600 strikeouts and wicked good infield defense. Have some fun!

 

Stop trying to turn me on!

[moonslav59]

Stop trying to turn me on!

 

You do realize getting Chapman and Baez would mean hardly anything left for pitching, or are you now joining the Henry can spend millions more if he wants club?

[notin]

I'm not thrilled with Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B and do worry about Story's health at SS.

I'm not thrilled with our corner IF or LF defense, either.

I'm worried about CF and the fact that Dugo has just one year remaining.

I'm a little worried about our lack of a great LH RP'er, although many of our RH RP'ers do very well or better vs RHBs.

I'm worried about the loss of big RH'd bats Turner & Duvall

 

All of these pale in comparison to my concerns about the rotation.

 

If I had to assign a percentage based on my concerns, I might break it down like this:

 

Option A:

40% Solid #2 type SP

40% Solid #2 type SP

16% Solid #4 type SP

3% RHB (CF, RF, if we trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

Option B:

60% Ace

36% Solid #2 SP

3% RHB (CF, RF-trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

(This is not a breakdown of money allocation- just my perception of our needs.)

 

I strongly doubt the Sox go into 2024 with no better options at 2b than Reyes and Valdez.

 

Despite all of the “Sox should only spend on pitching!” banter, it’s pretty unlikely that’s the only thing they spend on.

 

They are likely to either bring in a 2b, bring in a SS and move Story to 2b, or trade for a 2b (with Verdugo?).

 

FWIW soxprospects.com has the Sox bringing back Duvall (for CF), and acquiring two pitchers and a 2b.

 

They also have Urias as a bubble candidate for a roster spot…

Edited October 9, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Reyes actually played quite decently this year in all areas. He might be the best of the stopgap options.

[moonslav59]

I strongly doubt the Sox go into 2024 with no better options at 2b than Reyes and Valdez.

 

Despite all of the “Sox should only spend on pitching!” banter, it’s pretty unlikely that’s the only thing they spend on.

 

They are likely to either bring in a 2b, bring in a SS and move Story to 2b, or trade for a 2b (with Verdugo?).

 

FWIW soxprospects.com has the Sox bringing back Duvall (for CF), and acquiring two pitchers and a 2b.

 

They also have Urias as a bubble candidate for a roster spot…

 

A lot depends on how they perceive Urias. His final arb year may be more than what they think he's worth. They must have had some hope he'd return to '21-'22 levels to trade for him, but did they get a long enough look to make the call? Getting hurt, again, probably hurt his case for getting an arb case or pre-arb signing, but I would not be surprised to see him back as the FT 2Bman. It's not like 2021 and 2022 was long ago, and the guy is just 26.

 

If they do let him go or trade him, I'm not thrilled by a Reyes-Valdez platoon at 2B, either, but I still view pitching as the major priority, and by a longshot.

 

I don't think DHam is viewed as capable ML depth at MI. He may not even make to 40 man roster in '24.

Mayer is not close enough to count as 2024 MI depth. Yorke might be, but that's a gamble.

 

I just don't see us deciding to spend much at 2B or 3B, if any- with or without Urias (who can play 3B, too.)

[moonslav59]

Reyes actually played quite decently this year in all areas. He might be the best of the stopgap options.

 

I'm not sure how much weight we can give his 2023 performance. He's 30 years old, and had a .667 career OPS before '23.

 

It was .627 from 2018-2022 with a grand total of 260 PAs in MLB over those 4 years.

 

His sample size in 2023 was just 185 PAs. Cora's reluctance to play him, while Kike was stinking up the joint, shows he did not have much faith in him, at first.

 

His career .803 OPS v LHPs and ability to play decent D at SS might make him a valuable piece to the 2024 Sox. If we use EValdez as the other half of a 2B platoon (.806 v RHP in '23), we may get some very nice offense from that position, but Valdez is horrible on D, and would be playing the long side platoon.

[notin]

You do realize getting Chapman and Baez would mean hardly anything left for pitching, or are you now joining the Henry can spend millions more if he wants club?

 

I don’t think either one is one the radar. Chapman is only on mine. And last I checked, my influence with the Sox roster construction and spending is, to be blunt, fairly minimized…

[notin]

Reyes actually played quite decently this year in all areas. He might be the best of the stopgap options.

 

And Pedro Ciriaco looked good for a while.

 

Reyes deserves a utility INF role, but let’s no go overboard with the small successful sample size of a career minor leaguer…

[Bellhorn04]

And Pedro Ciriaco looked good for a while.

 

Reyes deserves a utility INF role, but let’s no go overboard with the small successful sample size of a career minor leaguer…

 

And here I am trying to get on board with a minimum wage guy.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think either one is one the radar. Chapman is only on mine. And last I checked, my influence with the Sox roster construction and spending is, to be blunt, fairly minimized…

 

I'm wondering why he's on your radar.

 

Either you are starting to think "JH can spend more, if he wants," or you don't want to spend whatever we'd pay Chapman of more and or better pitching.

 

Say we have $50-70M to spend. We need 2-3 excellent pitchers. That alone will cost over $50M.

 

[moonslav59]

And here I am trying to get on board with a minimum wage guy.

 

We may have quite a few pre-arb...

Bello

Houck

Crawford

Wink

Casas

Duran

Wong

Reyes

Abreu

Rafaela

EValdez

 

I count 9-10 for the opening day 26 man roster.

 

Plus, Schreiber on his first arb, McGuire on his second, Urias on his 3rd of 4, and Pivetta and Dugo on the more costly 3 of 3 arbs.

(Also, Ref will make only $1.85M)

 

Others on the 40 or bubble (or gone):

4-7 Rule 5 Players

Murphy

Kelly

Walter

Mills

Mata

DHam

Dalbec

[Bellhorn04]

I'm wondering why he's on your radar.

 

Either you are starting to think "JH can spend more, if he wants," or you don't want to spend whatever we'd pay Chapman of more and or better pitching.

 

Say we have $50-70M to spend. We need 2-3 excellent pitchers. That alone will cost over $50M.

 

 

I get the Chapman idea, absolutely. Our defense was atrocious. Chapman has been a 3.5-4 WAR player and is super-durable.

 

Needless to say, Chapman is only in the picture if Henry decides to spend big this offseason.

[notin]

I get the Chapman idea, absolutely. Our defense was atrocious. Chapman has been a 3.5-4 WAR player and is super-durable.

 

Needless to say, Chapman is only in the picture if Henry decides to spend big this offseason.

 

I have a very strong feeling the most interest Chapman will receive related to the Red Sox is on this message board and from me. I’ll put his file next to Paul Blackburn (who had a very good second half) in that regard…

[notin]

And here I am trying to get on board with a minimum wage guy.

 

I figure they get a 2b in a trade for an OF or sign a cheap stopgap like an Adam Frazier or Tony Kemp.

 

Or they simple tender Urias an offer and go from there…

[mvp 78]

Reyes actually played quite decently this year in all areas. He might be the best of the stopgap options.

 

They are going to Frankenstein monster a 2B in 2024.

[Nick]

I'm not thrilled with Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B and do worry about Story's health at SS.

I'm not thrilled with our corner IF or LF defense, either.

I'm worried about CF and the fact that Dugo has just one year remaining.

I'm a little worried about our lack of a great LH RP'er, although many of our RH RP'ers do very well or better vs RHBs.

I'm worried about the loss of big RH'd bats Turner & Duvall

 

All of these pale in comparison to my concerns about the rotation.

 

If I had to assign a percentage based on my concerns, I might break it down like this:

 

Option A:

40% Solid #2 type SP

40% Solid #2 type SP

16% Solid #4 type SP

3% RHB (CF, RF, if we trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

Option B:

60% Ace

36% Solid #2 SP

3% RHB (CF, RF-trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

(This is not a breakdown of money allocation- just my perception of our needs.)

 

I have absolutely no worries about Dugo becoming a free agent. Second coming of Beni.

[mvp 78]

I believe HOU was interested in Verdugo this year. Altuve is a FA after next season. Teams should do a straight swap.

[Nick]

I'm going to put on my gambling hat.

 

Fact #1 Majority of top 'prospects' flame out, I've been told. (Bellhorn can fact check me on this)

Fact #2 At worst, Sox will have a very good defensive shortstop for maybe another 5 years.

 

Perhaps it's time to trade our top three prospect Mayer before he blames out for an established pitcher.

 

We keep Wong, Casas, Story, Devers, Duran, Rafaela and Abreu as our core position players. By all means, add a Duvall or a Turner type on a short deal. Kyle Teel should be up to the majors by 2025, reinforcement for Wong.

 

People on this board believe Roman Anthony will become a high end hitting outfielder for the Sox. He's a keeper.

 

Our bullpen should be solid, Houck, Whitlock and perhaps Kutter joining in. Departing Martin and Jansen will be replaceable in 2025.

 

We have other position players coming up.

 

Didn't we draft bunch of shortstops anyway?

 

Go sign some FA starting pitching, trade our farm players for a middle of the road starting pitching also. Let's line them up SP1 through SP10.

Edited October 9, 2023 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Depends on which starting pitcher is available. I think any and all prospects are available in the right trade.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm going to put on my gambling hat.

 

Fact #1 Majority of top 'prospects' flame out, I've been told. (Bellhorn can fact check me on this)

 

Jeezus, I fact check everyone here. And everyone fact checks me.

 

Putting it in your sig line, though? I can do stupid s*** like that, too.

[notin]

Depends on which starting pitcher is available. I think any and all prospects are available in the right trade.

 

Except Dalbec. Because nobody wants Dalbec…

[Dipre]

Jeezus, I fact check everyone here. And everyone fact checks me.

 

Putting it in your sig line, though? I can do stupid s*** like that, too.

 

Indeed!

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not thrilled with Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B and do worry about Story's health at SS.

I'm not thrilled with our corner IF or LF defense, either.

I'm worried about CF and the fact that Dugo has just one year remaining.

I'm a little worried about our lack of a great LH RP'er, although many of our RH RP'ers do very well or better vs RHBs.

I'm worried about the loss of big RH'd bats Turner & Duvall

 

All of these pale in comparison to my concerns about the rotation.

 

If I had to assign a percentage based on my concerns, I might break it down like this:

 

Option A:

40% Solid #2 type SP

40% Solid #2 type SP

16% Solid #4 type SP

3% RHB (CF, RF, if we trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

Option B:

60% Ace

36% Solid #2 SP

3% RHB (CF, RF-trade Dugo or 2B)

1% LH RP

 

(This is not a breakdown of money allocation- just my perception of our needs.)

 

As always, clear as a bell. You want starters and all else is secondary. I don't agree.

 

For starters, let's compare the 2023 Sox to the 2021 Sox, who won 93 games, were a wild card, and made it to the ALCS.

 

The 2021 Sox finished 5th in MLB in total runs scored. And here are the top seven bats on that team--

 

Devers, lefty bat, 3b: .890 OPS, 113 rbi's, 318 total bases, WAR 3.5

JDM, righty bat, DH: .867 OPS, 99 rbi's, 295 total bases, WAR 3.0

Renfroe, righty bat, RF: .816 OPS, 96 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 2.4

Bogey, righty bat, SS: .863 OPS, 79 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 4.9

Dugo, lefty bat, LF/RF: .777 OPS, 63 rbi's, 232 total bases, WAR 2.2

Kike Herndandez, righty bat, CF: .786 OPS, 60 rbi's, 229 total bases, WAR 4.9

Bobby Dalbec, righty bat, 1b: .792 OPS, 78 rbi's, 206 total bases, WAR 0.2

 

This year's (2023) Sox finished 11th in MLB in runs scored, which historically has guaranteed they would not make it to the postseason. And here are this year's top Sox hitters:

 

Devers, lefty bat, 3b: OPS .851, 100 rbi's, 290 total bases, WAR 3.5

Turner, righty bat, DH/1B: OPS .800, 96 rbi's, 254 total bases, WAR 2.1

Yoshida, lefty bat, DH/LF: OPS .783, 72 rbi's, 239 total bases, WAR 1.4

Dugo, lefty bat, RF: OPS .745; 54 rbi's, 230 total bases, WAR 2.6

Casas, lefty bat, 1b/DH: OPS .856, 65 rbi's, 210 total bases, WAR 2.2

Duvall, righty bat, CF/RF: OPS .834, 58 rbi's, 170 total bases, WAR 1.5

Duran, lefty bat, CF/LF: OPS .828, 40 rbi's, 160 total bases, WAR 2.2.

 

Ah, you might say, but the 2021 Sox had a much better pitching staff. Well, yes and no. Their team ERA was 4.24, 15th best in MLB. The 2023 Sox team ERA was 4.52, 21st in MLB. However, the lowest team ERA this season was the Brewers 3.71--so the 21st place Sox were less than 1 ER below the best staff in MLB. The lowest team ERA in 2021 was the Dodgers' 3.01, so the 15th best Sox ERA of 4.24 was more than 1 ER behind the best.

 

Since starters are your thing, here are the top 5 starters from the 2021 Sox--

 

Eovaldi, 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182 IP, ERA 3.75, WAR 4.6.

ERod, 31 starts, 9 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 1.9

Pivetta, 30 starts, 8 quality starts, 155 IP, ERA 4.53, WAR 2.6

Richards, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 136 IP, ERA 4.87, WAR 0.2

Perez, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 114 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 0.5

 

And here are the top 6 starters for the 2023 Sox--

 

Bello, 28 starts, 15 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.24, WAR 3.1

Crawford, 23 starts, 4 quality starts, 129 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.5

Houck, 21 starts, 5 quality starts, 106 IP, ERA 5.01, WAR 1.3

Sale, 20 starts, 6 quality starts, 102 IP, ERA 4.30, WAR 1.7

Paxton, 19 starts, 8 quality starts, 96 IP, ERA 4.50, WAR 1.1

Pivetta, 16 starts, 5 quality starts, 142 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.4

 

My take on the above is that the six in 2023 were about as good as the five in 2021--except for the quantity of starts. The 2023 "six" had 43 quality starts to 2021's "five's" 38 quality starts. I think they might have had a lower ERA too.

 

And my point is that I think you have over-reacted to this year's pitching problem because you have ignored the effects of all those pitchers/starters on the IL as well as the daunting 4-Aug to 20 Sep schedule (48 games with just 3 days off).

 

I think Bello, Sale, Pivetta, and Crawford would be a good start on a rotation next year. If they are healthy, they could average between 25 and 30 starts (or a total of 100 to 120 starts). If the Sox spend enough in cash/salary and prospects for one good starter, that might be enough.

 

This would also allow the Sox to solve the biggest problem with this year's team: too many freaking lefty bats.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed!

 

What's that about - Yoshida?

[moonslav59]

I get the Chapman idea, absolutely. Our defense was atrocious. Chapman has been a 3.5-4 WAR player and is super-durable.

 

Needless to say, Chapman is only in the picture if Henry decides to spend big this offseason.

 

We'd be better with Chapman, but I'm old school, I guess.

 

Fix the weakest areas, first. While corner IF is a weak area, it's not near the weakest.

[moonslav59]

As always, clear as a bell. You want starters and all else is secondary. I don't agree.

 

For starters, let's compare the 2023 Sox to the 2021 Sox, who won 93 games, were a wild card, and made it to the ALCS.

 

The 2021 Sox finished 5th in MLB in total runs scored. And here are the top seven bats on that team--

 

Devers, lefty bat, 3b: .890 OPS, 113 rbi's, 318 total bases, WAR 3.5

JDM, righty bat, DH: .867 OPS, 99 rbi's, 295 total bases, WAR 3.0

Renfroe, righty bat, RF: .816 OPS, 96 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 2.4

Bogey, righty bat, SS: .863 OPS, 79 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 4.9

Dugo, lefty bat, LF/RF: .777 OPS, 63 rbi's, 232 total bases, WAR 2.2

Kike Herndandez, righty bat, CF: .786 OPS, 60 rbi's, 229 total bases, WAR 4.9

Bobby Dalbec, righty bat, 1b: .792 OPS, 78 rbi's, 206 total bases, WAR 0.2

 

This year's (2023) Sox finished 11th in MLB in runs scored, which historically has guaranteed they would not make it to the postseason. And here are this year's top Sox hitters:

 

Devers, lefty bat, 3b: OPS .851, 100 rbi's, 290 total bases, WAR 3.5

Turner, righty bat, DH/1B: OPS .800, 96 rbi's, 254 total bases, WAR 2.1

Yoshida, lefty bat, DH/LF: OPS .783, 72 rbi's, 239 total bases, WAR 1.4

Dugo, lefty bat, RF: OPS .745; 54 rbi's, 230 total bases, WAR 2.6

Casas, lefty bat, 1b/DH: OPS .856, 65 rbi's, 210 total bases, WAR 2.2

Duvall, righty bat, CF/RF: OPS .834, 58 rbi's, 170 total bases, WAR 1.5

Duran, lefty bat, CF/LF: OPS .828, 40 rbi's, 160 total bases, WAR 2.2.

 

Ah, you might say, but the 2021 Sox had a much better pitching staff. Well, yes and no. Their team ERA was 4.24, 15th best in MLB. The 2023 Sox team ERA was 4.52, 21st in MLB. However, the lowest team ERA this season was the Brewers 3.71--so the 21st place Sox were less than 1 ER below the best staff in MLB. The lowest team ERA in 2021 was the Dodgers' 3.01, so the 15th best Sox ERA of 4.24 was more than 1 ER behind the best.

 

Since starters are your thing, here are the top 5 starters from the 2021 Sox--

 

Eovaldi, 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182 IP, ERA 3.75, WAR 4.6.

ERod, 31 starts, 9 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 1.9

Pivetta, 30 starts, 8 quality starts, 155 IP, ERA 4.53, WAR 2.6

Richards, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 136 IP, ERA 4.87, WAR 0.2

Perez, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 114 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 0.5

 

And here are the top 6 starters for the 2023 Sox--

 

Bello, 28 starts, 15 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.24, WAR 3.1

Crawford, 23 starts, 4 quality starts, 129 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.5

Houck, 21 starts, 5 quality starts, 106 IP, ERA 5.01, WAR 1.3

Sale, 20 starts, 6 quality starts, 102 IP, ERA 4.30, WAR 1.7

Paxton, 19 starts, 8 quality starts, 96 IP, ERA 4.50, WAR 1.1

Pivetta, 16 starts, 5 quality starts, 142 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.4

 

My take on the above is that the six in 2023 were about as good as the five in 2021--except for the quantity of starts. The 2023 "six" had 43 quality starts to 2021's "five's" 38 quality starts. I think they might have had a lower ERA too.

 

And my point is that I think you have over-reacted to this year's pitching problem because you have ignored the effects of all those pitchers/starters on the IL as well as the daunting 4-Aug to 20 Sep schedule (48 games with just 3 days off).

 

I think Bello, Sale, Pivetta, and Crawford would be a good start on a rotation next year. If they are healthy, they could average between 25 and 30 starts (or a total of 100 to 120 starts). If the Sox spend enough in cash/salary and prospects for one good starter, that might be enough.

 

This would also allow the Sox to solve the biggest problem with this year's team: too many freaking lefty bats.

 

Every Sox ring team was very different than the others. 2004 and 2007 were the closest.

 

Teams win the WS using various methods.

 

Trying to come up with similar teams as we had before might work very well, or not. The 2021 team is the one you choose to try and copy?

 

How about 2004: Pedro 33 GS, Schill 32 GS (Lowe, Wake & Arroyo all over 29 GS)

2007: Schill 24, Beckett 30 (Dice K and Wake over 31)

2013: Lester 33, Lackey 29 (Dempdter & Douby 27+) Buch with an awesome 16

2018: Sale 27, Price 30, Porcello 33, ERod 23 & Nate with a big 11.

 

Yes, we had hitting, too, but the rings come with aces, as in plural. We have none, now.

[moonslav59]

As always, clear as a bell. You want starters and all else is secondary. I don't agree.

 

For starters, let's compare the 2023 Sox to the 2021 Sox, who won 93 games, were a wild card, and made it to the ALCS.

 

The 2021 Sox finished 5th in MLB in total runs scored. And here are the top seven bats on that team--

 

Devers, lefty bat, 3b: .890 OPS, 113 rbi's, 318 total bases, WAR 3.5

JDM, righty bat, DH: .867 OPS, 99 rbi's, 295 total bases, WAR 3.0

Renfroe, righty bat, RF: .816 OPS, 96 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 2.4

Bogey, righty bat, SS: .863 OPS, 79 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 4.9

Dugo, lefty bat, LF/RF: .777 OPS, 63 rbi's, 232 total bases, WAR 2.2

Kike Herndandez, righty bat, CF: .786 OPS, 60 rbi's, 229 total bases, WAR 4.9

Bobby Dalbec, righty bat, 1b: .792 OPS, 78 rbi's, 206 total bases, WAR 0.2

 

This year's (2023) Sox finished 11th in MLB in runs scored, which historically has guaranteed they would not make it to the postseason. And here are this year's top Sox hitters:

 

Devers, lefty bat, 3b: OPS .851, 100 rbi's, 290 total bases, WAR 3.5

Turner, righty bat, DH/1B: OPS .800, 96 rbi's, 254 total bases, WAR 2.1

Yoshida, lefty bat, DH/LF: OPS .783, 72 rbi's, 239 total bases, WAR 1.4

Dugo, lefty bat, RF: OPS .745; 54 rbi's, 230 total bases, WAR 2.6

Casas, lefty bat, 1b/DH: OPS .856, 65 rbi's, 210 total bases, WAR 2.2

Duvall, righty bat, CF/RF: OPS .834, 58 rbi's, 170 total bases, WAR 1.5

Duran, lefty bat, CF/LF: OPS .828, 40 rbi's, 160 total bases, WAR 2.2.

 

Ah, you might say, but the 2021 Sox had a much better pitching staff. Well, yes and no. Their team ERA was 4.24, 15th best in MLB. The 2023 Sox team ERA was 4.52, 21st in MLB. However, the lowest team ERA this season was the Brewers 3.71--so the 21st place Sox were less than 1 ER below the best staff in MLB. The lowest team ERA in 2021 was the Dodgers' 3.01, so the 15th best Sox ERA of 4.24 was more than 1 ER behind the best.

 

Since starters are your thing, here are the top 5 starters from the 2021 Sox--

 

Eovaldi, 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182 IP, ERA 3.75, WAR 4.6.

ERod, 31 starts, 9 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 1.9

Pivetta, 30 starts, 8 quality starts, 155 IP, ERA 4.53, WAR 2.6

Richards, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 136 IP, ERA 4.87, WAR 0.2

Perez, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 114 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 0.5

 

And here are the top 6 starters for the 2023 Sox--

 

Bello, 28 starts, 15 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.24, WAR 3.1

Crawford, 23 starts, 4 quality starts, 129 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.5

Houck, 21 starts, 5 quality starts, 106 IP, ERA 5.01, WAR 1.3

Sale, 20 starts, 6 quality starts, 102 IP, ERA 4.30, WAR 1.7

Paxton, 19 starts, 8 quality starts, 96 IP, ERA 4.50, WAR 1.1

Pivetta, 16 starts, 5 quality starts, 142 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.4

 

My take on the above is that the six in 2023 were about as good as the five in 2021--except for the quantity of starts. The 2023 "six" had 43 quality starts to 2021's "five's" 38 quality starts. I think they might have had a lower ERA too.

 

And my point is that I think you have over-reacted to this year's pitching problem because you have ignored the effects of all those pitchers/starters on the IL as well as the daunting 4-Aug to 20 Sep schedule (48 games with just 3 days off).

 

I think Bello, Sale, Pivetta, and Crawford would be a good start on a rotation next year. If they are healthy, they could average between 25 and 30 starts (or a total of 100 to 120 starts). If the Sox spend enough in cash/salary and prospects for one good starter, that might be enough.

 

This would also allow the Sox to solve the biggest problem with this year's team: too many freaking lefty bats.

 

That '21 team did have some nice big bats, but they also had some duds:

 

The worst 4 OPS+ batters in the top 9 by PAs

2021

53 Mariwn

77 Vaz

107 Dalbec

107 Verduog

 

 

2023:

62 Kike

80 Wong

100 Dugo

109 Yoshi

 

The 2021 team had better hitting (106 OPS+ to 100 OPS+,) but they also had better fielding and ERA+ (110 to 101.)

 

 

[Nick]

Jeezus, I fact check everyone here. And everyone fact checks me.

 

Putting it in your sig line, though? I can do stupid s*** like that, too.

 

I thought you would like it...not funny huh?

[jacksonianmarch]

Load up in the rotation, tinker in the pen, add some defense on the field. The sox have the deepest but not the highest number of holes to fill