Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

Yep. And yet, interestingly enough, they've spent more on free agents so far this offseason than the Red Sox have.

 

It's all the crime and homelessness in Boston!

[moonslav59]

They've already pivoted away from Snell and Montgomery. There have been NO rumors about Stroman, Clevinger or Lorenzen. The only guys we've heard about is Soler and YRod. That still seems like a bridge year to me.

 

Agreed.

 

They may try to trade for a SP'er with 5 years of control, but even that risks losing 1 of those 5 years to a tank year 1.

[moonslav59]

They've already pivoted away from Snell and Montgomery. There have been NO rumors about Stroman, Clevinger or Lorenzen. The only guys we've heard about is Soler and YRod. That still seems like a bridge year to me.

 

Our list might look like this:

 

Soler (Duvall as fall back)

Paxton or YRod

 

I went into this winter with zero expectations, but all this is less than zero.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

They may try to trade for a SP'er with 5 years of control, but even that risks losing 1 of those 5 years to a tank year 1.

 

Why be worried about losing one year? Sometimes a tank year has unexpected results. If that's the pitcher you want, go get them. I'd say the same thing about a pitcher with two years control. Acquire the pitchers you believe in. Look at the successful franchises around the league and follow what they do (Dodgers, Braves, etc.).

[mvp 78]

Our list might look like this:

 

Soler (Duvall as fall back)

Paxton or YRod

 

I went into this winter with zero expectations, but all this is less than zero.

 

Paxton is probably better than YRod, but has a lower ceiling due to injury risk.

[moonslav59]

Why be worried about losing one year? Sometimes a tank year has unexpected results. If that's the pitcher you want, go get them. I'd say the same thing about a pitcher with two years control. Acquire the pitchers you believe in. Look at the successful franchises around the league and follow what they do (Dodgers, Braves, etc.).

 

I've been all for trading for a longer term controlled 1/2 type SP'er, since I was 15.

 

If they can get it done, now- pull the trigger.

 

2-3 year pitchers are no longer looking all that good to me.

 

If we trade for Luzardo (3 yrs,) and we tank this year, we'll have to spend big, next year or hope a few rookies play like Lynn and Rice.

[moonslav59]

Paxton is probably better than YRod, but has a lower ceiling due to injury risk.

 

You mean lower floor, as in 0-10 IP possible?

[notin]

I've been all for trading for a longer term controlled 1/2 type SP'er, since I was 15.

 

If they can get it done, now- pull the trigger.

 

2-3 year pitchers are no longer looking all that good to me.

 

If we trade for Luzardo (3 yrs,) and we tank this year, we'll have to spend big, next year or hope a few rookies play like Lynn and Rice.

 

 

Specifically how Lynn and Rice played as rookies in ‘75. And not, you know, how they play today, pushing 75…

[notin]

It's all the crime and homelessness in Boston!

 

Also the nearest parking to Fenway is in New Hampshire…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Specifically how Lynn and Rice played as rookies in ‘75. And not, you know, how they play today, pushing 75…

 

I'd still take Freddie in the outfield today over some of the bumble fumblers they've paraded out there in Red Sox jerseys the past four years (including any JDs who tripped over a bag and never made it).

[mvp 78]

I've been all for trading for a longer term controlled 1/2 type SP'er, since I was 15.

 

If they can get it done, now- pull the trigger.

 

2-3 year pitchers are no longer looking all that good to me.

 

If we trade for Luzardo (3 yrs,) and we tank this year, we'll have to spend big, next year or hope a few rookies play like Lynn and Rice.

 

Since you were 15?!?!? Holy s***! I had no idea about years of control until I was in my 20's.

 

They'll have to spend big no matter what! They have zero good arms coming from the farm that can slot into front end of the rotation. Right now, nobody projects higher than a 4.

 

Per SP:

Perales - potential back end starter

Wikelman - highquality multi inning relief arm

Fitts - multi inning depth reliever

Monegro - up and down multi inning reliever

ERC - emergency depth starter

Dobbins - depth starter or multi inning reliever

Walter - depth starter

Rogers - reliever

Gambrell - up and down swingman

Penrod - high minors org depth arm

Liu - minor league depth arm

 

BLEAK

[mvp 78]

You mean lower floor, as in 0-10 IP possible?

 

Yes, doesn't make it out of April, or struggles with injuries all year, while YRod pitches as a 5th starter and eeks out 1.5 fWAR or whatever.

[mvp 78]

Also the nearest parking to Fenway is in New Hampshire…

 

Northeastern used to be a commuter school. The Red Sox are a commuter franchise.

[mvp 78]

I'd still take Freddie in the outfield today over some of the bumble fumblers they've paraded out there in Red Sox jerseys the past four years (including any JDs who tripped over a bag and never made it).

 

Wily Mo never tripped over a bag.

[moonslav59]

Since you were 15?!?!? Holy s***! I had no idea about years of control until I was in my 20's.

 

They'll have to spend big no matter what! They have zero good arms coming from the farm that can slot into front end of the rotation. Right now, nobody projects higher than a 4.

 

Per SP:

Perales - potential back end starter

Wikelman - highquality multi inning relief arm

Fitts - multi inning depth reliever

Monegro - up and down multi inning reliever

ERC - emergency depth starter

Dobbins - depth starter or multi inning reliever

Walter - depth starter

Rogers - reliever

Gambrell - up and down swingman

Penrod - high minors org depth arm

Liu - minor league depth arm

 

BLEAK

 

That is terribly bleak, and for as much grief as DD got for "leaving the farm barren," guys like Bello and Crawford look way better than we can expect any two, in our system now, to ever become.

 

(Yes, Bloom brought us Whitlock & Wink- maybe both not really starters- in other ways, but our pitcher development system has been broken. Maybe recent changes will help, but only a long time will tell.)

 

Thus, the need to sign or trade for top SP'ers, while we wait to see.

[Old Red]

Why be worried about losing one year? Sometimes a tank year has unexpected results. If that's the pitcher you want, go get them. I'd say the same thing about a pitcher with two years control. Acquire the pitchers you believe in. Look at the successful franchises around the league and follow what they do (Dodgers, Braves, etc.).

Like I’ve been saying right along you don’t have to wait until the Red Sox are so called ready to go all in to get some better starting pitching. I’m not talking about 1 year bargain basement purchases. The longer you wait for SP the more the cost goes up. Gray at 34 is now getting paid $25M when he never made more than $10M before. I’m sure Monty could have been signed a lot cheaper even a year ago than what he will end up with now.

[mvp 78]

ARB raises due for Pivetta, O'Neillll, McGuire and Schreiber at 1pm today. If they don't get done, it goes to arbitration and the $$$ most likely goes up and is a pain in the ass for both sides. Sox FO likes to mess around though.

[moonslav59]

ARB raises due for Pivetta, O'Neillll, McGuire and Schreiber at 1pm today. If they don't get done, it goes to arbitration and the $$$ most likely goes up and is a pain in the ass for both sides. Sox FO likes to mess around though.

 

Don't we hardly ever go to ARBs?

[mvp 78]

That is terribly bleak, and for as much grief as DD got for "leaving the farm barren," guys like Bello and Crawford look way better than we can expect any two, in our system now, to ever become.

 

(Yes, Bloom brought us Whitlock & Wink- maybe both not really starters- in other ways, but our pitcher development system has been broken. Maybe recent changes will help, but only a long time will tell.)

 

Thus, the need to sign or trade for top SP'ers, while we wait to see.

 

Need 1 or 2 of the guys I referenced to reach their ceiling or better. Maybe the new program can get something extra out of Perales, Wikelman, Monegro and Early. Time will tell. Right now, it doesn't look good though. Bloom was all about pitchability. Now, they are going in a different direction and it will take a while to get Crag guys to the MLB level.

[mvp 78]

Don't we hardly ever go to ARBs?

 

It means they are probably busy doing other stuff this AM. Maybe why there has been no FA news recently? IDK.

[mvp 78]

Like I’ve been saying right along you don’t have to wait until the Red Sox are so called ready to go all in to get some better starting pitching. I’m not talking about 1 year bargain basement purchases. The longer you wait for SP the more the cost goes up. Gray at 34 is now getting paid $25M when he never made more than $10M before. I’m sure Monty could have been signed a lot cheaper even a year ago than what he will end up with now.

 

It's up to Crag to identify talent and work with Henry's financial constraints.

[Old Red]

It's up to Crag to identify talent and work with Henry's financial constraints.

 

I get that point 100%. I’m just saying the longer you wait to do something to make the team better it gets more expensive, which isn’t good if you have a strict budget to work with.

[Bellhorn04]

Like I’ve been saying right along you don’t have to wait until the Red Sox are so called ready to go all in to get some better starting pitching. I’m not talking about 1 year bargain basement purchases. The longer you wait for SP the more the cost goes up. Gray at 34 is now getting paid $25M when he never made more than $10M before. I’m sure Monty could have been signed a lot cheaper even a year ago than what he will end up with now.

 

Gray and Monty are both getting paid a lot more because of their excellent 2023 seasons.

 

That's why they call 'em contract seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't we hardly ever go to ARBs?

 

Henry might re-think that one too...

[moonslav59]

Need 1 or 2 of the guys I referenced to reach their ceiling or better. Maybe the new program can get something extra out of Perales, Wikelman, Monegro and Early. Time will tell. Right now, it doesn't look good though. Bloom was all about pitchability. Now, they are going in a different direction and it will take a while to get Crag guys to the MLB level.

 

I agree, but think we'll be lucky to get 2 pitchers from this group as good as Bello & Crawford. (Most rate to be RP'ers, anyway.)

 

It will take years for Breslow's group to be formulated, developed, promoted and then matured.

 

In the mean time, there are precious few options at improving the rotation.

 

FA

blockbuster trade

under-the-radar trade

Rule5, Waivers, MiLFA are too rare to even consider

 

Draft & IFA are for the next group: 3-6 or more years away.

[Hitch]

Like I’ve been saying right along you don’t have to wait until the Red Sox are so called ready to go all in to get some better starting pitching. I’m not talking about 1 year bargain basement purchases. The longer you wait for SP the more the cost goes up. Gray at 34 is now getting paid $25M when he never made more than $10M before. I’m sure Monty could have been signed a lot cheaper even a year ago than what he will end up with now.

 

Boras notoriously has his players test free agency. And a lot of them sign very late, too.

 

I don't expect us to sign Snell or Monty, but it's worth keeping point 2 in mind.

[mvp 78]

Gray and Monty are both getting paid a lot more because of their excellent 2023 seasons.

 

That's why they call 'em contract seasons.

 

Gotta identify what talent is going to get better before they actually do!

[moonslav59]

Henry might re-think that one too...

 

Luckily, we have very few, this year. (We lost Dugo, Arroyo and maybe more)

3 of 3 Pivetta $5.4M

3 of 3 O'Neill $ 5.0M >est $5.9M

2 of 3 McGuire $1.2 > est $2.0M

1 of 3 Schreiber $750K> est $1.5M

 

[mvp 78]

I agree, but think we'll be lucky to get 2 pitchers from this group as good as Bello & Crawford. (Most rate to be RP'ers, anyway.)

 

It will take years for Breslow's group to be formulated, developed, promoted and then matured.

 

In the mean time, there are precious few options at improving the rotation.

 

FA

blockbuster trade

under-the-radar trade

Rule5, Waivers, MiLFA are too rare to even consider

 

Draft & IFA are for the next group: 3-6 or more years away.

 

I think he can use trades to get a Bello-type. I think the hype surrounding Bello is a little overblown anyway. He's not a guy I'm extending unless it's for really cheap dollars. I think they can get a few #3's with what they have on the farm without really gutting anything.

[mvp 78]

Boras notoriously has his players test free agency. And a lot of them sign very late, too.

 

I don't expect us to sign Snell or Monty, but it's worth keeping point 2 in mind.

 

They'll sign late, but one of the musical chairs for those guys won't have the Red Sox logo on it.