Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Bres-Slow says pitching is a top priority, but he is spending all his time talking to T Hernandez????? Are we sure bres-slow is not hang’em Chaim in disguise

 

Thinking Hernandez job will be to free up outfielders for a pitching trade. Most likely Duran or Rafaela.

 

Just a theory…

Edited December 25, 2023 by notin

[vjcsmoke]

Well I've been reading the rumor mill and apparently Montgomery would be too expensive a target for the Red Sox. He's projected to earn a new contract around a 5 year 106m deal. So 21m dollars per year for a top of the rotation pitcher is too rich for the Red Sox now?

 

WTF happened to this franchise? It feels like the owners are literally rubbing 2 pennies together first whenever it comes time to open the checkbook!

[notin]

Well I've been reading the rumor mill and apparently Montgomery would be too expensive a target for the Red Sox. He's projected to earn a new contract around a 5 year 106m deal. So 21m dollars per year for a top of the rotation pitcher is too rich for the Red Sox now?

 

WTF happened to this franchise? It feels like the owners are literally rubbing 2 pennies together first whenever it comes time to open the checkbook!

 

 

Montgomery of going to get way more that that.

 

Even MLBTR projected 6/$150mill, and they’ve been under on most free agents so far…

[Bellhorn04]

Thinking Hernandez job will be to free up outfielders for a pitching trade. Most likely Duran or Rafaela.

 

Just a theory…

 

That's what Alex Speier speculated. Seems like a solid theory.

[Bellhorn04]

Montgomery of going to get way more that that.

 

Even MLBTR projected 6/$150mill, and they’ve been under on most free agents so far…

 

They were over on Gray in total dollars (4/90).

 

They were virtually bang on on ERod (4/82).

 

They were virtually bang on on Lugo (3/42).

 

Which supports my theory that the Sox missed the boat on the reasonable ones.

 

Now they're left with Montgomery at an inflated price.

[Bellhorn04]

And the speculation seems to be that the Sox aren't really in on Montgomery. Which is disturbing if true.

[Randy Red Sox]

And the speculation seems to be that the Sox aren't really in on Montgomery. Which is disturbing if true.

 

at this point they may as well just punt on 2024

[notin]

And the speculation seems to be that the Sox aren't really in on Montgomery. Which is disturbing if true.

 

Has there been any speculation on who is?

 

There are so many to free agents with little to no buzz surrounding them…

[notin]

at this point they may as well just punt on 2024

 

Why? What’s punting do?

[notin]

They were over on Gray in total dollars (4/90).

 

They were virtually bang on on ERod (4/82).

 

They were virtually bang on on Lugo (3/42).

 

Which supports my theory that the Sox missed the boat on the reasonable ones.

 

Now they're left with Montgomery at an inflated price.

 

Can we stop pretending we missed out on Lugo? During the 15 minutes the Sox were connected to him, no one was excited. Had the Sox signed, only Mrs. Lugo might be thrilled. I can promise there would have been threads about how we settled for him.

 

But now we missed out? I’d rather have most of the available top 50 starters over Lugo…

[moonslav59]

Can we stop pretending we missed out on Lugo? During the 15 minutes the Sox were connected to him, no one was excited. Had the Sox signed, only Mrs. Lugo might be thrilled. I can promise there would have been threads about how we settled for him.

 

But now we missed out? I’d rather have most of the available top 50 starters over Lugo…

 

I liked him before he signed, but never as the top pitcher we sign.

[Hugh2]

They were over on Gray in total dollars (4/90).

 

They were virtually bang on on ERod (4/82).

 

They were virtually bang on on Lugo (3/42).

 

Which supports my theory that the Sox missed the boat on the reasonable ones.

 

Now they're left with Montgomery at an inflated price.

 

They were over on the years with Gray, they projected 25 million AAV for him.

 

They were way under on Ohtani 528 million to 700 million

They were under on Yamamoto 225 million to 325 million

They were under on Nola who supposedly took a team friendly deal 150 million to 172 million.

 

Montgomery is projected to get $150 million.

 

If you look at how off they've been at the top of the market, it shouldn't be surprising if Montgomery gets somewhere in the $175-$200 range.

 

Not really sure where this 105 million number came from.

[oldtimer]

After months of speculation about FA signings and trades on these sites, it is looking like the management's full throttle response is in reverse. Time to sell the team to an owner who wants to be competitive.

[Bellhorn04]

Can we stop pretending we missed out on Lugo? During the 15 minutes the Sox were connected to him, no one was excited. Had the Sox signed, only Mrs. Lugo might be thrilled. I can promise there would have been threads about how we settled for him.

 

But now we missed out? I’d rather have most of the available top 50 starters over Lugo…

 

That's nice, but in the real world Lugo was #19 on MLBTR's list of all free agents.

[Bellhorn04]

Most of us were in agreement on who the top 6 free agent starting pitchers were.

 

At this point it appears the Red Sox were not seriously in on any of them.

 

That's fairly incredible IMHO.

[Dipre]

They were over on Gray in total dollars (4/90).

 

They were virtually bang on on ERod (4/82).

 

They were virtually bang on on Lugo (3/42).

 

Which supports my theory that the Sox missed the boat on the reasonable ones.

 

Now they're left with Montgomery at an inflated price.

 

All significantly inferior options to Montgomery, based on availability, consistency and results.

[Bellhorn04]

They were way under on Ohtani 528 million to 700 million

 

Aha, but the present value has been calculated at "only" 460 million and the AAV at 46 million.

[Bellhorn04]

All significantly inferior options to Montgomery, based on availability, consistency and results.

 

Gray has been significantly inferior to Montgomery on which planet?

 

And part of the issue is that they're not in on Monty either.

[Hugh2]

Aha, but the present value has been calculated at "only" 460 million and the AAV at 46 million.

 

Yeah, ok, but how many other contracts do we report in present value? even a standard 8 year contract, if you wanted the present day value you would discount back to T=0. Techinically every MLB contract is not expressed in present day value. The disparity is just a little bigger for Ohtani because you're discounting back further due to the deferments. The 528 they predicted was NOT a present day value prediction either, it was a prediction of nominal value.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, ok, but how many other contracts do we report in present value? even a standard 8 year contract, if you wanted the present day value you would discount back to T=0. Techinically every MLB contract is not expressed in present day value.

 

They only use present value when there are significant deferrals.

[Hugh2]

They only use present value when there are significant deferrals.

 

Doesn't matter.

 

The present day value of Mookies contract was $285 million. Regardless, $460 today is $700 million in ten years. Just like Mookies $285 million was 365 spread out over 12 years. No one talks about contracts like that, they made it a thing with Ohtani, there will never be an Ohtani again.

 

Point was, Point is, and continues to be that most of these free agents are getting more than their predictions. In either total dollars or AAV. Montgomery is getting a heck of a lot more than 105 million.

[mvp 78]

Bres-Slow says pitching is a top priority, but he is spending all his time talking to T Hernandez????? Are we sure bres-slow is not hang’em Chaim in disguise

 

It was reported that I spoke with the Executive Assistant this AM. I bet I will speak to nobody else for the next 7 hours while I'm at work today!

[Bellhorn04]

Doesn't matter.

 

The present day value of Mookies contract was $285 million. Regardless, $460 today is $700 million in ten years. Just like Mookies $285 million was 365 spread out over 12 years. No one talks about contracts like that, they made it a thing with Ohtani, there will never be an Ohtani again.

 

Point was, Point is, and continues to be that most of these free agents are getting more than their predictions. In either total dollars or AAV. Montgomery is getting a heck of a lot more than 105 million.

 

MLBTR predicted 6 and 150 for Montgomery. No idea where the 105 came from.

[mvp 78]

Montgomery of going to get way more that that.

 

Even MLBTR projected 6/$150mill, and they’ve been under on most free agents so far…

 

I think they are good at compiling news, but not much more beyond that.

[Dipre]

Gray has been significantly inferior to Montgomery on which planet?

 

And part of the issue is that they're not in on Monty either.

 

Sorry, I thought it was Jon, not Sonny. But Sonny is older than Montgomery by a couple years right?

[mvp 78]

Thinking Hernandez job will be to free up outfielders for a pitching trade. Most likely Duran or Rafaela.

 

Just a theory…

 

Probably Duran as Teoscar is more of a Corner OF, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry, I thought it was Jon, not Sonny. But Sonny is older than Montgomery by a couple years right?

 

Yes, he's older, and he only signed for 3 years. Seems like the kind of deal that would appeal to the Sox. But no.

[mvp 78]

Can we stop pretending we missed out on Lugo? During the 15 minutes the Sox were connected to him, no one was excited. Had the Sox signed, only Mrs. Lugo might be thrilled. I can promise there would have been threads about how we settled for him.

 

But now we missed out? I’d rather have most of the available top 50 starters over Lugo…

 

I'd rather a 1 year Paxton deal than a multi year Lugo deal.

[Dipre]

Saw some videos of baseball content creators on yt and tiktok absolutely s***ing on the Sox FO for being cheap and not working to improve the product. These are guys with hundreds of thousands (to millions) of followers. Not a good look.

[Old Red]

MLBTR predicted 6 and 150 for Montgomery. No idea where the 105 came from.

 

CBS projected 5yr/$105M before all the dog, and pony shows started, and said Monty would only get a 5th year, because that’s probably would it would take.