Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Hugh2]

MLBTR predicted 6 and 150 for Montgomery. No idea where the 105 came from.

 

That was my point. I hope that 150 is on point, I'd certainly take that in Boston. I don't expect anyone to be perfect in the prediction game. From a certain perspective MLBtraderumors is fairly accurate.

 

I'd say if they're off on the 150/6 it's because someone is going an extra year to get him. So in a bidding war maybe he's getting 7/175 +/- a few

[Hugh2]

CBS projected 5yr/$105M before all the dog, and pony shows started, and said Monty would only get a 5th year, because that’s probably would it would take.

 

I won't be surprised if he gets at least 6 years.

[mvp 78]

Most of us were in agreement on who the top 6 free agent starting pitchers were.

 

At this point it appears the Red Sox were not seriously in on any of them.

 

That's fairly incredible IMHO.

 

Coal in the stocking.

[mvp 78]

Saw some videos of baseball content creators on yt and tiktok absolutely s***ing on the Sox FO for being cheap and not working to improve the product. These are guys with hundreds of thousands (to millions) of followers. Not a good look.

 

Not surprising in the least.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather a 1 year Paxton deal than a multi year Lugo deal.

 

Let's be clear, nobody was "excited" about Lugo. But he did have a 2.8 fWAR this year, higher than anyone on the Sox staff.

 

The real point is they are not in on any of the big names either. Their "involvement" on Moto was a f'king joke. That should tell us where this front office's head is - still up their asses.

[Hugh2]

I won't be surprised if he gets at least 6 years.

 

They've been under on pretty much everyone so far. But tha's fine, so is everyone, including fans.

 

It just feels that we always complain about them not signing free agents and then when they do we complain that they pay them too much.

 

Of course, to be fair, when is the last time we signed a top teir free agent pitcher? Id much rather have that argument in here (that a guy is overpaid) than pretty much any other one we've had.

[Dipre]

They've been under on pretty much everyone so far. But tha's fine, so is everyone, including fans.

 

It just feels that we always complain about them not signing free agents and then when they do we complain that they pay them too much.

 

Of course, to be fair, when is the last time we signed a top teir free agent pitcher? Id much rather have that argument in here (that a guy is overpaid) than pretty much any other one we've had.

 

David Price. Terrible deal. Pitchers are s***** investments on long term deals in general, but they've failed to get impact starting pitching in any capacity, so now they would have to pay the going rate in either money or prospect capital, and it seems like they don't want to pay either.

[Hugh2]

David Price. Terrible deal. Pitchers are s***** investments on long term deals in general, but they've failed to get impact starting pitching in any capacity, so now they would have to pay the going rate in either money or prospect capital, and it seems like they don't want to pay either.

 

 

Exactly, I'd love to get some good pitching in here. People will complain that we paid too much, people will complain about the contract not being worth it, etc etc etc.

 

But I'd be much happier having that debate in here, than any of the other ones we've had the past few years.

[Bellhorn04]

They've been under on pretty much everyone so far.

 

No, they haven't, actually, if you take the time to go through the list. It's a mixed bag.

[Old Red]

Let's be clear, nobody was "excited" about Lugo. But he did have a 2.8 fWAR this year, higher than anyone on the Sox staff.

 

The real point is they are not in on any of the big names either. Their "involvement" on Moto was a f'king joke. That should tell us where this front office's head is - still up their asses.

 

I can’t believe some fans took the Red Sox seriously just having a meeting with the Yam Man. I thought before anything started with meetings that the Red Sox had less than a 1% chance of landing him in the first place. Going against the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers wasn’t even worth the bother, but some fans bought in.

[Hugh2]

Depending on the years, Montgomery probably gets somewhere in the $22-$27 million aav range. That's my guess. 5/$135 - $176/8.

 

I can live with that.

[Hugh2]

I can’t believe some fans took the Red Sox seriously just having a meeting with the Yam Man. I thought before anything started with meetings that the Red Sox had less than a 1% chance of landing him in the first place. Going against the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers wasn’t even worth the bother, but some fans bought in.

 

From what we know now, I think it was the Dodgers all along. Reportedly the Mets offered more money, and he still didn't go back and give them or anyone else a chance to up their offer. Sox might of never been in on it regardless, but at this point, I think it's obvious Yama just wanted to go to LA and used other teams to get the best reported deal.

 

I think we all kind of sensed this possibility when Ohtani signed that siginificantly AAV friendly deal.

[Bellhorn04]

Depending on the years, Montgomery probably gets somewhere in the $22-$27 million aav range. That's my guess. 5/$135 - $176/8.

 

I can live with that.

 

Me too, but the speculation is that the Sox aren't in on him.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox proprietary Team Building Analytics keeps cranking out the message that starting pitching is too expensive and is best to be avoided...

[Old Red]

Me too, but the speculation is that the Sox aren't in on him.

 

I said it before FA started, and I’ll say it for the tenth time. Trade, trade, and trade. I have never expected the Red Sox to grab any of the top FA pitchers, because who ever didn’t grab the Yam Man would focus their attention elsewhere, and the Red Sox just aren’t outbidding any of the top spenders, so the only way is through trades.

[Hugh2]

The Sox proprietary Team Building Analytics keeps cranking out the message that starting pitching is too expensive and is best to be avoided...

 

I mean, it would be better to be able to draft and develop your own. The problem with that is we don't. Breslow seems to be putting together the structure, but that takes years, and I can only imagine the carnage in the streets if the next several years looks like the last several. Even if Breslow does an amazing job at building up the future of this organzaiton, without help from ownership allowing him to spend he is either going to need time.....or he will have to get lucky and be a better dumpster diver than Bloom was.

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, it would be better to be able to draft and develop your own. The problem with that is we don't. Breslow seems to be putting together the structure, but that takes years, and I can only imagine the carnage in the streets if the next several years looks like the last several. Even if Breslow does an amazing job at building up the future of this organzaiton, without help from ownership allowing him to spend he is either going to need time.....or he will have to get lucky and be a better dumpster diver than Bloom was.

 

Bloom had a long-term plan too.

 

Henry doesn't want to spend, but he has no patience either.

[Hugh2]

I said it before FA started, and I’ll say it for the tenth time. Trade, trade, and trade. I have never expected the Red Sox to grab any of the top FA pitchers, because who ever didn’t grab the Yam Man would focus their attention elsewhere, and the Red Sox just aren’t outbidding any of the top spenders, so the only way is through trades.

 

Who do you trade for though? many of the top pitchers on the trading market are only 1 year away from FA. Guys go to free agency now a days, it's very rare they sign an extention and some of those names have even said they are not going to sign an extension.

 

So why trade top prospects (that you will have to replace in free agency) just to go out and get a good pitcher for one year, that you will have to pay $200 million to keep? when you can just go spend that money this year.

 

It's like. Do you want Mayer/Teel/Montgomery??? Or do you want Burnes/FA1/FA2???? Given the teams history and budgetary constraints, I wouldn't have confidence in FA1 and FA2 being very good. You're astronomically better with option 1.

 

You have to spend the money trading for an ACE if you want to keep him around, so why not just spend the money now.

 

Depleting your system when you suck is like throwing in all your chips to try and be a .500 team. I don't want to be a .500 team, I want to compete for World Series Championships.

[Hugh2]

Bloom had a long-term plan too.

 

Henry doesn't want to spend, but he has no patience either.

 

He did, and it didn't involve any pitching. Had a few good drafts, but no pitchers in there. Maybe Matt Duffy looks good this year with his 88-92 MPH fastball from the right side.

[mvp 78]

Let's be clear, nobody was "excited" about Lugo. But he did have a 2.8 fWAR this year, higher than anyone on the Sox staff.

 

The real point is they are not in on any of the big names either. Their "involvement" on Moto was a f'king joke. That should tell us where this front office's head is - still up their asses.

 

It's not great! I don't think it has been reported if they even offered him a contract, right?

[Bellhorn04]

It's not great! I don't think it has been reported if they even offered him a contract, right?

 

AFAIK, the only reported offers are the Dodgers, Mets and Yanks. The 3 that were actually serious.

 

There's absolute zero info on the Sox. Not even sure they made a formal offer.

[mvp 78]

Depending on the years, Montgomery probably gets somewhere in the $22-$27 million aav range. That's my guess. 5/$135 - $176/8.

 

I can live with that.

 

I'd do 5/135, I don't think Monty would and I doubt the Sox would.

[mvp 78]

I said it before FA started, and I’ll say it for the tenth time. Trade, trade, and trade. I have never expected the Red Sox to grab any of the top FA pitchers, because who ever didn’t grab the Yam Man would focus their attention elsewhere, and the Red Sox just aren’t outbidding any of the top spenders, so the only way is through trades.

 

Easier said than done though.

[mvp 78]

I mean, it would be better to be able to draft and develop your own. The problem with that is we don't. Breslow seems to be putting together the structure, but that takes years, and I can only imagine the carnage in the streets if the next several years looks like the last several. Even if Breslow does an amazing job at building up the future of this organzaiton, without help from ownership allowing him to spend he is either going to need time.....or he will have to get lucky and be a better dumpster diver than Bloom was.

 

Because they can't be bothered to even draft starting pitchers in the first 3 rounds, right?!?!?

[mvp 78]

Bloom had a long-term plan too.

 

Henry doesn't want to spend, but he has no patience either.

 

He wants the Sox to be a risk-free cash cow.

[mvp 78]

AFAIK, the only reported offers are the Dodgers, Mets and Yanks. The 3 that were actually serious.

 

There's absolute zero info on the Sox. Not even sure they made a formal offer.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Easier said than done though.

 

Easy was signing cheaper free agents.

[Hugh2]

I'd do 5/135, I don't think Monty would and I doubt the Sox would.

 

I don't think so either, given the market, teams will compete for his services, and seeing how this may be his only real chance at a big pay day he would take the years over the higher AAV. I think someone going to 176/8 - 170/7 is the team that gets Montg.

 

I want the Sox to grow some balls if they believe in a guy. But I think at this point they're very far into "put up or shut up" territory.

[Old Red]

Who do you trade for though? many of the top pitchers on the trading market are only 1 year away from FA. Guys go to free agency now a days, it's very rare they sign an extention and some of those names have even said they are not going to sign an extension.

 

So why trade top prospects (that you will have to replace in free agency) just to go out and get a good pitcher for one year, that you will have to pay $200 million to keep? when you can just go spend that money this year.

 

It's like. Do you want Mayer/Teel/Montgomery??? Or do you want Burnes/FA1/FA2???? Given the teams history and budgetary constraints, I wouldn't have confidence in FA1 and FA2 being very good. You're astronomically better with option 1.

 

You have to spend the money trading for an ACE if you want to keep him around, so why not just spend the money now.

 

Depleting your system when you suck is like throwing in all your chips to try and be a .500 team. I don't want to be a .500 team, I want to compete for World Series Championships.

 

Monty is not an ace, and has gotten hype from being good down the stretch, and having a good postseason. Would he help? Yes,but not worth the contract. Snell has won two CY, but hasn’t been all that good in the years in between. Not worth the contract either. They need to trade for some young pitching somewhere with some years of control left. All I’ve heard for the last two years is firesale, firesale. That would have been the time to improve the pitching, but now it’s much more expensive, and big spenders are in need.

[Hugh2]

Because they can't be bothered to even draft starting pitchers in the first 3 rounds, right?!?!?

 

No, they wait until the 4th round to take guys throwing 90 MPH.