Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

Why wouldn't he blow everyone away? He's not going to show up and say "I'll give you what the Yankees do plus 1M." He's going to put 50M more on the table so that Yamamoto doesn't walk away.

 

He very well may do that. I just said, I'm not convinced. That's not some bold write off on Cohen.

 

Others are meeting with him twice, too.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say he'll sign with the Mets, but I am "not convinced."

 

Would you bet on the Mets vs the rest of the teams combined?

 

Would you say the Mets have a 51% chance? 66%? 75%? 90%? 99%?

 

What percent do you view as "not being convinced?"

 

Just off the top of my head, I might lay the odds at:

 

40% NYM

12.5% NYY

12.5% LAD

10% TOR

10% BOS

8% SFG

7% PHI

 

In reality, there are probably only 2-3 teams still in it, as we speak, but we don't know who is 100% out.

 

It's likely more like:

55% NYM

25% NYY

20% LAD or some sleeper like TOR, BOS, SFG or PHI... and not some split odds by 7 teams

 

Tell me why this seems way off the mark.

[mvp 78]

I have never been confident the Sox would get Yamamoto.

 

I’m not much for Snell, who seems to get by by mixing one spectacular season among several mediocre ones.

 

I do think Montgomery is and will remain in play for Boston.

 

I plead ignorance and fear with regards to Imanaga.

 

I think the biggest potential steal/bargain/sleeper is Giolito. But it’s not hard to see that going with as well…

 

Aside from the big 3 the unsigned guys are:

Stroman - maybe

Kershaw - no

Clevinger - maybe

Lorenzen - no

Woodruff - Paxton type deal?

Urias - jail time, pass

Manaea - no

Greinke - would be fun to watch, but no

Paxton - no

Giolito - sure

German - no

Boyd - no

Hill - retire please

Junis - relief profile, no

Wood - no

Ryu - medicals? maybe

Montas - bounce back candidate with upside, sure

Imanaga - midrotation guy, price tag?

Bauer - PR hit?

Carrasco - no

YRodriguez - relief profile, no

 

I guess it depends on which of the bargain basement guys Crag likes? Would he take Giolito and Montas thinking that he can put life back into them? Both had TOTR upside in recent years.

[Bellhorn04]

I have never been confident the Sox would get Yamamoto.

 

I’m not much for Snell, who seems to get by by mixing one spectacular season among several mediocre ones.

 

I do think Montgomery is and will remain in play for Boston.

 

Montgomery is in play, sure, but he'll also likely be in play for most of the teams that lose out on Moto. That means inflation. That means he might not even be a smart choice any more.

 

But maybe I'm just suffering from a bad case of negative confirmation bias...

[Bellhorn04]

He very well may do that. I just said, I'm not convinced. That's not some bold write off on Cohen.

 

Others are meeting with him twice, too.

 

Only the other NY team?

[mvp 78]

Why do you see Giolito as better than Stroman?

 

For me, price tag. Stroman is solid though. I wouldn't do more than a 3 year deal though.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess it depends on which of the bargain basement guys Crag likes? Would he take Giolito and Montas thinking that he can put life back into them? Both had TOTR upside in recent years.

 

These are the scenarios that start to make punting look good.

 

We do know they had a zoom meeting with Severino LOL

[moonslav59]

Cohen has already set the precedent with his 2023 spree. He's worth 20 bill and he's like a big crazy kid with his team. If it comes down to an EBay situation, no one is going to top him.

 

If it comes down to Cohen thinking nobody will outbid me, I agree 100%.

 

We are not sure he is thinking this. It seems like he will be or should be, but we don't know.

 

Why didn't he outbid TEX for deGrom? He could have afforded Verlander, Scherzer and deGrom.

 

Why is Ohtani a Dodger?

 

Obviously, Cohen sets limits on how high he'll go.

 

Obviously, if he truly views Yamo as "his guy," he will be his guy. I don't doubt that.

 

What we don't know, is if he has some sort of calculation like this:

 

"I like Yamo at $325M/10, but if it goes higher, I'll pivot to Monty and Snell, combined for about the same total money but a higher AAV, after all, I don't care about the Lux Tax. I think Snell plus Monty have more value and split the risk on two."

 

How is this not a possible scenario?

[mvp 78]

In reality, there are probably only 2-3 teams still in it, as we speak, but we don't know who is 100% out.

 

It's likely more like:

55% NYM

25% NYY

20% LAD or some sleeper like TOR, BOS, SFG or PHI... and not some split odds by 7 teams

 

Tell me why this seems way off the mark.

I'd go:

 

Mets 60%

LA 20%

Yanks 15%

Sox 5%

 

I think that's where I'd rank it. Sox take up the final spot as I believe they have some more financial flexibility and might than SF or TOR.

[Bellhorn04]

If it comes down to Cohen thinking nobody will outbid me, I agree 100%.

 

We are not sure he is thinking this. It seems like he will be or should be, but we don't know.

 

Why didn't he outbid TEX for deGrom? He could have afforded Verlander, Scherzer and deGrom.

 

Why is Ohtani a Dodger?

 

Obviously, Cohen sets limits on how high he'll go.

 

Obviously, if he truly views Yamo as "his guy," he will be his guy. I don't doubt that.

 

What we don't know, is if he has some sort of calculation like this:

 

"I like Yamo at $325M/10, but if it goes higher, I'll pivot to Monty and Snell, combined for about the same total money but a higher AAV, after all, I don't care about the Lux Tax. I think Snell plus Monty have more value and split the risk on two."

 

How is this not a possible scenario?

 

FWIW there have been stories that if the Mets don't sign Moto, they will not be going after Monty or Snell. Cohen is focused on Moto.

[mvp 78]

These are the scenarios that start to make punting look good.

 

We do know they had a zoom meeting with Severino LOL

 

Please, sir, I want some more gruel?

[mvp 78]

FWIW there have been stories that if the Mets don't sign Moto, they will not be going after Monty or Snell. Cohen is focused on Moto.

 

Sox may be in the same boat then? If that's the case, then the price for Snell and Monty could actually go down if bidders aren't that thrilled about them.

[Dipre]

Low info guy put the ORIOLES on his list. That's what you're running with? CLICKBAIT?!?!? But you're mad about Tony Mazz? Ok...

 

Also, Yankees were 5th on the list dude? Caught you slipping!

 

I like "clickbait" better than a raging *******. Also, some of the teams are based on whether teams were sniffing around on the guy and had the financial flexibility.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd go:

 

Mets 60%

LA 20%

Yanks 15%

Sox 5%

 

I think that's where I'd rank it. Sox take up the final spot as I believe they have some more financial flexibility and might than SF or TOR.

 

Sox might still have might, or they might just want you to still think they might.

[Dipre]

I've said before, and I'll say it again: If they're not certain they'll sign Yama-San, they should pivot and get other desirable SP before the market shifts to them. Imanaga and Montgomery or Burnes/FA would create a cascade effect for this team's pitching that should yield massively better results than last year.

[moonslav59]

For me, price tag. Stroman is solid though. I wouldn't do more than a 3 year deal though.

 

Is Stroman going to make way more than Giolito?

 

We know most of these MLBTR projections will be significantly higher, but here are their comp values:

200/7 Snell (maybe he gets 250/8?

150/6 Monty (maybe he gets 200/7?)

85/5 Imanaga (maybe 100/5?)

 

44/2 Giolito

44/2 Stroman

 

26/2 Clevinger

22/2 Lorenzen & Manaea

15/1 Montas

Signed already:

150/6 Nola for 172/7 (the AAV was close)

90/4 Gray for 75/3 (AAV was close)

42/3 Lugo for 45/3 (very close)

40/3 Flaherty for 14/1 (years were way off)

36/3 Wacha for 32/2 (higher AAV, 1 less year)

36/2 Maeda for 24/2 (overestimated his value)

82/4 ERod for 80/4 (almost exact)

20/2 Mahle for 22/2

[moonslav59]

I'd go:

 

Mets 60%

LA 20%

Yanks 15%

Sox 5%

 

I think that's where I'd rank it. Sox take up the final spot as I believe they have some more financial flexibility and might than SF or TOR.

 

So, 60% is "convincing?"

[moonslav59]

FWIW there have been stories that if the Mets don't sign Moto, they will not be going after Monty or Snell. Cohen is focused on Moto.

 

I heard that, too.

 

Maybe Imanaga, Belllinger and Chapman, instead.

[moonslav59]

I've said before, and I'll say it again: If they're not certain they'll sign Yama-San, they should pivot and get other desirable SP before the market shifts to them. Imanaga and Montgomery or Burnes/FA would create a cascade effect for this team's pitching that should yield massively better results than last year.

 

Monty and Snell might be telling teams, no matter what you offer, we are waiting until after Yamo.

[Dipre]

Monty and Snell might be telling teams, no matter what you offer, we are waiting until after Yamo.

 

Yeah no. They might be telling teams "unless you blow my socks off, I am waiting until after Yamamoto"

[notin]

Aside from the big 3 the unsigned guys are:

Stroman - maybe

Kershaw - no

Clevinger - maybe

Lorenzen - no

Woodruff - Paxton type deal?

Urias - jail time, pass

Manaea - no

Greinke - would be fun to watch, but no

Paxton - no

Giolito - sure

German - no

Boyd - no

Hill - retire please

Junis - relief profile, no

Wood - no

Ryu - medicals? maybe

Montas - bounce back candidate with upside, sure

Imanaga - midrotation guy, price tag?

Bauer - PR hit?

Carrasco - no

YRodriguez - relief profile, no

 

I guess it depends on which of the bargain basement guys Crag likes? Would he take Giolito and Montas thinking that he can put life back into them? Both had TOTR upside in recent years.

 

 

If potential matters, Edward Cabrera belongs in the conversation as well…

[mvp 78]

I like "clickbait" better than a raging *******. Also, some of the teams are based on whether teams were sniffing around on the guy and had the financial flexibility.

 

When you take Mazz away from Felger, he is no longer in rage mode. He's halfway tolerant. I think they treat their afternoon drive show like a WWE episode everyday.

[mvp 78]

Sox might still have might, or they might just want you to still think they might.

 

They have the money and the CBT room. They just might not have the WILL to spend anymore.

[Dipre]

When you take Mazz away from Felger, he is no longer in rage mode. He's halfway tolerant. I think they treat their afternoon drive show like a WWE episode everyday.

 

Ok, that was funny

[mvp 78]

Is Stroman going to make way more than Giolito?

 

We know most of these MLBTR projections will be significantly higher, but here are their comp values:

200/7 Snell (maybe he gets 250/8?

150/6 Monty (maybe he gets 200/7?)

85/5 Imanaga (maybe 100/5?)

 

44/2 Giolito

44/2 Stroman

 

26/2 Clevinger

22/2 Lorenzen & Manaea

15/1 Montas

Signed already:

150/6 Nola for 172/7 (the AAV was close)

90/4 Gray for 75/3 (AAV was close)

42/3 Lugo for 45/3 (very close)

40/3 Flaherty for 14/1 (years were way off)

36/3 Wacha for 32/2 (higher AAV, 1 less year)

36/2 Maeda for 24/2 (overestimated his value)

82/4 ERod for 80/4 (almost exact)

20/2 Mahle for 22/2

 

FanGraphs projects Stroman 3/66 and Giolito 2/30. If those are the contracts, I'd lean towards Giolito. Why not Stroman, Giolito AND Montas though? We know Sale will miss time and will be gone next year anyway.

 

Stroman

Bello

Sale

Giolito

Montas

 

Pivetta to pen. Crawford to AAA to keep innings up until someone gets hurt.

[moonslav59]

Yeah no. They might be telling teams "unless you blow my socks off, I am waiting until after Yamamoto"

 

Certainly, that makes sense, too.

 

I guess what "blows my socks off" means is what matters.

 

If Snell is saying $264M/8, you'd offer that? ($33M x 8)

 

If Monty is saying $217M/7, you'd do it? ($31M x 7)

 

They may get more than this by waiting. Maybe not.

[Dipre]

FanGraphs projects Stroman 3/66 and Giolito 2/30. If those are the contracts, I'd lean towards Giolito. Why not Stroman, Giolito AND Montas though? We know Sale will miss time and will be gone next year anyway.

 

Stroman

Bello

Sale

Giolito

Montas

 

Pivetta to pen. Crawford to AAA to keep innings up until someone gets hurt.

 

Seems like a plan to me.

[mvp 78]

I heard that, too.

 

Maybe Imanaga, Belllinger and Chapman, instead.

 

Sign Chapman and trade Baty?

[mvp 78]

If potential matters, Edward Cabrera belongs in the conversation as well…

 

I was only looking at available FA starters, not trade acquisitions preferred by TalkSox posters.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs projects Stroman 3/66 and Giolito 2/30. If those are the contracts, I'd lean towards Giolito. Why not Stroman, Giolito AND Montas though? We know Sale will miss time and will be gone next year anyway.

 

Stroman

Bello

Sale

Giolito

Montas

 

Pivetta to pen. Crawford to AAA to keep innings up until someone gets hurt.

 

I've been arguing 3 SP'ers added makes the most sense and creates a top 3 pen in MLB, but almost everyone disagreed.

 

I'd like better quality than the 3 you listed, but your suggestion will likely be better than what I expect we end up with in 2 pitchers.

 

Signing 3 might also allow us to trade Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock or Winckowski for a really good 2Bman or in a package for a 2Bman and catcher or an even better pitcher.

 

Would the Sox even consider:

90/5 Imanaga

63/3 Stroman

36/2 Giolito

 

That's a total of $56M AAV, which puts us right at the first tax line.

 

We could afford an upgrade at 2B and C and stay under the second line, or trade a pitcher for a 2Bman and try to stay under the line for a big splurge in 25.

[moonslav59]

Sign Chapman and trade Baty?

 

I guess. I'm just trying to point out there are other ways he can spend the same money, that he may view as having a higher impact.