Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Dipre]

Another misconception laid to rest.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-free-agency-top-suitors

 

According to Mark Feinsand, the Rangers weren't even in the top 7. (Then again, neither were the Yankees, but I digress).

[Bellhorn04]

I think he meant their first seasons w TEX.

 

You missed the point too.

[mvp 78]

The other thing about this sensational offseason is that, as harmony pointed out, we've lost about 40% of the WAR of our position players from last year, in Verdugo, Duvall and Turner. Not that any of them had fat WAR's, but that's how s***** we were. As of today we're shittier.

 

Sox only had 13.6 fWAR last season. s***, with Casas, Devers and seven 1 fWAR guys they could get there again.

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-free-agency-top-suitors

 

According to Mark Feinsand, the Rangers weren't even in the top 7. (Then again, neither were the Yankees, but I digress).

 

OK. I think there's a general point here, though, that anyone who thought the Rangers didn't have the money, or were deterred by the 68-94 season, couldn't have been any wronger.

[mvp 78]

For a guy from DeLand, FL, maybe sportswriters should have figured he'd get along better in TX than NYC.

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-free-agency-top-suitors

 

According to Mark Feinsand, the Rangers weren't even in the top 7. (Then again, neither were the Yankees, but I digress).

 

Low info guy put the ORIOLES on his list. That's what you're running with? CLICKBAIT?!?!? But you're mad about Tony Mazz? Ok...

 

Also, Yankees were 5th on the list dude? Caught you slipping!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox only had 13.6 fWAR last season. s***, with Casas, Devers and seven 1 fWAR guys they could get there again.

 

Peace-nik hippies -- no wonder no one ever started a brawl to contrive effort, or Cora never bothered to jump up and down in the dugout to light a fire.

[moonslav59]

The other thing about this sensational offseason is that, as harmony pointed out, we've lost about 40% of the WAR of our position players from last year, in Verdugo, Duvall and Turner. Not that any of them had fat WAR's, but that's how s***** we were. As of today we're shittier.

 

That is very concerning, especially if you factor in a healthy Duvall all year.

 

I do think the numbers might be a bit deceiving, as a healthy Story would probably have been our #2 bWAR guy behind Devers.

4.6 Abreu (6.1 bWAR, but 85 PAs is way too small to pro-rate like this.)

4.3 Duran (4.0 bWAR pro-rated)

3.4 Duvall (3.0 bWAR)

3.1 Devers (3.5 bWAR)

2.7 Casas (2.5)

2.0 Verdugo (2.7)

1.8 Reyes (1.4)

1.2 Turner (2.2)

1.0 McGuire (-1.0)

0.9 EValdez (0.0)

0.8 Wong (3.6)

0.8 Story (3.2 bWAR projection)

0.7 Rafaela (0.7)

0.7 Yoshida (0.7)

0.5 Refsnyder (0.5)

 

I know we should never count on 100% health, but here are the pro-rated fWARs of the 2023 Sox to 650 PAs:

 

Projected:

Yoshida replaces Turner at DH (some loss, unless Yoshi rebounds)

More of Duran, Rafaela & Abreu plus O'Neill replace Duvall & Dugo(hard to project)

 

Casas and Story should improve.

Wong & McGuire might improve.

2B is TBD, but it should not be hard to improve.

[moonslav59]

You missed the point too.

 

I did not say I agreed with him.

[sk7326]

But let's not pretend for one second that the 2020 Red Sox weren't historically, abysmally bad, and just a club in a slump for two months. Sure, guys like JD and Beni checked out, Mookie went west, and the dislikes of Chavis and Peraza roamed the diamond. But the pitching...

 

MLB 2020 Team Pitching:

Most Hits Allowed, Most Home Runs Served UP, Most Walks Issued, Most Runs Allowed Per Game (non-Coors column) -- Boston.

Worst FIP, Worst WHIP, Worst LIP (Losers In Pitching) sinks ship -- Boston.

 

The pitching was horrendous. But a .400 win pct over 60 games is not historically anything

[sk7326]

I'm beginning to have doubts we get Moto, Monty OR Snell. I think the Sox turn up their noses at the prices.

 

You have to worried there, I agree.

 

But it also looks like Montgomery, Snell and other starters in that tier are waiting for Yamamoto to go. Now, clearly some pitchers have taken the money and been happy. But I do think there is a Yamamoto-driven bottleneck here.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not say I agreed with him.

 

The only point was that Texas was not deterred by the expensively s***** results in 2022 to keep spending and trying to win a title. Quite the opposite, as it turned out.

[Bellhorn04]

You have to worried there, I agree.

 

But it also looks like Montgomery, Snell and other starters in that tier are waiting for Yamamoto to go. Now, clearly some pitchers have taken the money and been happy. But I do think there is a Yamamoto-driven bottleneck here.

 

The problem is, it doesn't look like that bottleneck holds any advantages for us. More likely it just means hyper-inflated prices for Montgomery and Snell.

[mvp 78]

You have to worried there, I agree.

 

But it also looks like Montgomery, Snell and other starters in that tier are waiting for Yamamoto to go. Now, clearly some pitchers have taken the money and been happy. But I do think there is a Yamamoto-driven bottleneck here.

 

We'll have to see if the Sox are willing to drink from the firehose once it's turned on.

[moonslav59]

The only point was that Texas was not deterred by the expensively s***** results in 2022 to keep spending and trying to win a title. Quite the opposite, as it turned out.

 

Yes, correct. The less than expected results from the previous winter's splurge did not deter TEX.

 

I do think there was a perception that Tex might not have a second mega splurge in a row, at this time, last year, and I thought we were talking about who was perceived to be in on big FA targets, last winter.

 

We are now trying to see if the Mets will not be deterred by crappy 2023 results, and the fact that they dumped salary, last summer. I'm not convinced Cohen is looking to blow everyone away for Yamo, but signing a 25 year old ace fits the plans of any team looking to win it all in 2024, 2025, 2026 or later (or all.)

[mvp 78]

The problem is, it doesn't look like that bottleneck holds any advantages for us. More likely it just means hyper-inflated prices for Montgomery and Snell.

 

If they are really darkhorses, why not just go sign Monty now if they REALLY like him? Maybe they don't like the tier below Yamamoto enough to sign them to monster deals? I wouldn't sign Snell to one just because he doesn't have the track record of throwing innings.

[Bellhorn04]

It's just too easy to see a scenario here where the Sox lose out on Moto, pass on Snell because of the injury risks, and find Montgomery has gotten too expensive.

 

Then tell the fans they tried their hardest, but things just didn't fall their way.

[mvp 78]

Yes, correct. The less than expected results from the previous winter's splurge did not deter TEX.

 

I do think there was a perception that Tex might not have a second mega splurge in a row, at this time, last year, and I thought we were talking about who was perceived to be in on big FA targets, last winter.

 

We are now trying to see if the Mets will not be deterred by crappy 2023 results, and the fact that they dumped salary, last summer. I'm not convinced Cohen is looking to blow everyone away for Yamo, but signing a 25 year old ace fits the plans of any team looking to win it all in 2024, 2025, 2026 or later (or all.)

 

Why would Cohen meet directly with Yamamoto twice unless he was serious about offering a competitive contract?

[moonslav59]

We'll have to see if the Sox are willing to drink from the firehose once it's turned on.

 

I like the analogy.

 

I would not bet on it.

 

I would guess, no.

 

I am hoping, yes.

[mvp 78]

It's just too easy to see a scenario here where the Sox lose out on Moto, pass on Snell because of the injury risks, and find Montgomery has gotten too expensive.

 

Then tell the fans they tried their hardest, but things just didn't fall their way.

 

The same old story.

It's as old as the stars above.

[mvp 78]

They're ruinin' my wintuh!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Why would Cohen meet directly with Yamamoto twice unless he was serious about offering a competitive contract?

 

Oh, it'll be a competitive offer, very competitive indeed. This is a guy who was willing to pay $100 mill in luxury tax alone...

[moonslav59]

Why would Cohen meet directly with Yamamoto twice unless he was serious about offering a competitive contract?

 

Where did I even hint he's not serious?

 

I just said I'm not convinced he will "blow everyone away." There is a difference.

 

He could be 100% serious, but some other owner has okay'd going beyond absurd with an even higher 2nd or 3rd offer.

 

There has to be a point where every owner says, "enough is enough, he's yours."

 

Cohen could be dead serious, but still reach that point.

 

(I seriously doubt JH is the guy to do this to Choen, but LAL or TOR might. Maybe PHI or SFG surprise Cohen.

 

[notin]

The problem is, it doesn't look like that bottleneck holds any advantages for us. More likely it just means hyper-inflated prices for Montgomery and Snell.

 

I have never been confident the Sox would get Yamamoto.

 

I’m not much for Snell, who seems to get by by mixing one spectacular season among several mediocre ones.

 

I do think Montgomery is and will remain in play for Boston.

 

I plead ignorance and fear with regards to Imanaga.

 

I think the biggest potential steal/bargain/sleeper is Giolito. But it’s not hard to see that going with as well…

[moonslav59]

Oh, it'll be a competitive offer, very competitive indeed. This is a guy who was willing to pay $100 mill in luxury tax alone...

 

We have yet to see, if he's willing to pay that every season.

 

There is also the posting fee and draft and bonus pool penalties to consider.

[mvp 78]

Where did I even hint he's not serious?

 

I just said I'm not convinced he will "blow everyone away." There is a difference.

 

He could be 100% serious, but some other owner has okay'd going beyond absurd with an even higher 2nd or 3rd offer.

 

There has to be a point where every owner says, "enough is enough, he's yours."

 

Cohen could be dead serious, but still reach that point.

 

(I seriously doubt JH is the guy to do this to Choen, but LAL or TOR might. Maybe PHI or SFG surprise Cohen.

 

 

Why wouldn't he blow everyone away? He's not going to show up and say "I'll give you what the Yankees do plus 1M." He's going to put 50M more on the table so that Yamamoto doesn't walk away.

[moonslav59]

I have never been confident the Sox would get Yamamoto.

 

I’m not much for Snell, who seems to get by by mixing one spectacular season among several mediocre ones.

 

I do think Montgomery is and will remain in play for Boston.

 

I plead ignorance and fear with regards to Imanaga.

 

I think the biggest potential steal/bargain/sleeper is Giolito. But it’s not hard to see that going with as well…

 

Why do you see Giolito as better than Stroman?

[Bellhorn04]

Where did I even hint he's not serious?

 

I just said I'm not convinced he will "blow everyone away." There is a difference.

 

He could be 100% serious, but some other owner has okay'd going beyond absurd with an even higher 2nd or 3rd offer.

 

There has to be a point where every owner says, "enough is enough, he's yours."

 

Cohen could be dead serious, but still reach that point.

 

(I seriously doubt JH is the guy to do this to Choen, but LAL or TOR might. Maybe PHI or SFG surprise Cohen.

 

 

Cohen has already set the precedent with his 2023 spree. He's worth 20 bill and he's like a big crazy kid with his team. If it comes down to an EBay situation, no one is going to top him.

[notin]

Why would Cohen meet directly with Yamamoto twice unless he was serious about offering a competitive contract?

 

 

Big fan of sushi?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The pitching was horrendous. But a .400 win pct over 60 games is not historically anything

 

Worst team ERA in Red Sox history