Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

Maybe, someday...

That is the best hope Sox fans have, right now.

 

This is the part of the Grimm's Fairy Tale where John Henry has us all fat and happy on sweet World Series titles, throws us in a cage and starts prepping us for dinner.

[Bellhorn04]

If it is, I guess the Sox are just doomed to suck for the next 5-6 years since their pitching pipeline is dreadful and they have no other way to acquire starters since they are unwilling to leverage their top prospects in trades. Yay.

 

But the good news is the owners will be able to pocket a whole lot more cash over that time!

[mvp 78]

So we'll just deny that Seager, Semien and Eovaldi had much to do with the Rangers being the current champions. Yeah, I'm sure they'd be champs without those guys.

 

The Sox would probably still be without a title since 1918 without their free agents.

 

You're arguing on principles and trying to gloss over reality.

 

Those moves were just for PR. Duh!

[moonslav59]

But the good news is the owners will be able to pocket a whole lot more cash over that time!

 

The true meaning of "Moneyball."

[notin]

So we'll just deny that Seager, Semien and Eovaldi had much to do with the Rangers being the current champions. Yeah, I'm sure they'd be champs without those guys.

 

The Sox would probably still be without a title since 1918 without their free agents.

 

You're arguing on principles and trying to gloss over reality.

 

And you’re looking at short term reality on long term contracts.

 

Free agency certainly helped teams get new players, but signing a player for 10 years? How many good years do the Rangers anticipate there? Think all ten? When Seager turns 35, they will still owe him $93million on that deal.

 

But if you think that 2023 justifies it all, great. Think Ranger fans still think that way in 2030?

[mvp 78]

And you’re looking at short term reality on long term contracts.

 

Free agency certainly helped teams get new players, but signing a player for 10 years? How many good years do the Rangers anticipate there? Think all ten? When Seager turns 35, they will still owe him $93million on that deal.

 

But if you think that 2023 justifies it all, great. Think Ranger fans still think that way in 2030?

 

Are you really worried about the last 3 years of a 10 year deal for Seager? That's crazy. Semien will have become a FA that year leaving an additional 25M on the table for whatever Seager's dropoff is.

[notin]

Are you really worried about the last 3 years of a 10 year deal for Seager? That's crazy. Semien will have become a FA that year leaving an additional 25M on the table for whatever Seager's dropoff is.

 

That’s just the obvious part up front that we KNOW will happen. How did you look at the Price contract when it was signed?

[notin]

If it is, I guess the Sox are just doomed to suck for the next 5-6 years since their pitching pipeline is dreadful and they have no other way to acquire starters since they are unwilling to leverage their top prospects in trades. Yay.

 

 

Is this where we attach a label and reputation to a player based on salary?

 

Once deGrom went down, Eovaldi was the #1 starter for the Rangers on their way to a title. No one called him a #3 starter, or even a #2 starter.

 

Bello is called a #3 at best on this site, despite his 3.1 bWAR equaling that of Eovaldi. Why is our guy a mid-rotation starter but the guy who signed elsewhere an ace of a WS team?

 

Certainly Bello lacks a track record. But then Eovaldi’s track record isn’t exactly clean either. Some quality seasons interspersed with injury-shortened ones with the occasional completely absent year.

 

But hey, Eovaldi made more money so he must be better. Or maybe the grass is simply greener in Arlington…

[Randy Red Sox]

Is this where we attach a label and reputation to a player based on salary?

 

Once deGrom went down, Eovaldi was the #1 starter for the Rangers on their way to a title. No one called him a #3 starter, or even a #2 starter.

 

Bello is called a #3 at best on this site, despite his 3.1 bWAR equaling that of Eovaldi. Why is our guy a mid-rotation starter but the guy who signed elsewhere an ace of a WS team?

 

Certainly Bello lacks a track record. But then Eovaldi’s track record isn’t exactly clean either. Some quality seasons interspersed with injury-shortened ones with the occasional completely absent year.

 

But hey, Eovaldi made more money so he must be better. Or maybe the grass is simply greener in Arlington…

 

the grass certainly is greener in Arlington than Fenway today

[moonslav59]

Is this where we attach a label and reputation to a player based on salary?

 

Once deGrom went down, Eovaldi was the #1 starter for the Rangers on their way to a title. No one called him a #3 starter, or even a #2 starter.

 

Bello is called a #3 at best on this site, despite his 3.1 bWAR equaling that of Eovaldi. Why is our guy a mid-rotation starter but the guy who signed elsewhere an ace of a WS team?

 

Certainly Bello lacks a track record. But then Eovaldi’s track record isn’t exactly clean either. Some quality seasons interspersed with injury-shortened ones with the occasional completely absent year.

 

But hey, Eovaldi made more money so he must be better. Or maybe the grass is simply greener in Arlington…

 

The grass is greener, due to warmer climate and excessive watering.

[Old Red]

That’s just the obvious part up front that we KNOW will happen. How did you look at the Price contract when it was signed?

 

Price was a bad signing. The Red Sox could have had Lester for half the price.

[Old Red]

It really is.

 

Far too often it turns into management showing a willingness to spend go their audience.

 

The entire process involves overpaying a player in his 30s for what he did in his 20s, usually for another team. That’s more PR than sound team-building strategy…

 

The Red Sox meeting with the Yam Man was all fluff, and for PR purposes. What the Rangers did in FA was help them get a WS, and they got good PR as the result. What the Red Sox did, and what the Rangers did was two entirely different things.

[jad]

Price was a bad signing. The Red Sox could have had Lester for half the price.

 

But he, along with Betts, got us Alex "Blow-Up" Verdugo!!!

[Old Red]

Is this where we attach a label and reputation to a player based on salary?

 

Once deGrom went down, Eovaldi was the #1 starter for the Rangers on their way to a title. No one called him a #3 starter, or even a #2 starter.

 

Bello is called a #3 at best on this site, despite his 3.1 bWAR equaling that of Eovaldi. Why is our guy a mid-rotation starter but the guy who signed elsewhere an ace of a WS team?

 

Certainly Bello lacks a track record. But then Eovaldi’s track record isn’t exactly clean either. Some quality seasons interspersed with injury-shortened ones with the occasional completely absent year.

 

But hey, Eovaldi made more money so he must be better. Or maybe the grass is simply greener in Arlington…

That’s why I don’t label pitches at all. To me you have starters, and you have guys in the BP, but i will concede a closer. You know which pitchers are better than other ones without labeling them 1-5. You know the Red Sox do not have a good starting staff.

[mvp 78]

That’s just the obvious part up front that we KNOW will happen. How did you look at the Price contract when it was signed?

 

I didn't have a problem with it at the end.

[mvp 78]

Is this where we attach a label and reputation to a player based on salary?

 

Once deGrom went down, Eovaldi was the #1 starter for the Rangers on their way to a title. No one called him a #3 starter, or even a #2 starter.

 

Bello is called a #3 at best on this site, despite his 3.1 bWAR equaling that of Eovaldi. Why is our guy a mid-rotation starter but the guy who signed elsewhere an ace of a WS team?

 

Certainly Bello lacks a track record. But then Eovaldi’s track record isn’t exactly clean either. Some quality seasons interspersed with injury-shortened ones with the occasional completely absent year.

 

But hey, Eovaldi made more money so he must be better. Or maybe the grass is simply greener in Arlington…

 

Bello 1.6 fWAR

Eovaldi 2.5 fWAR

 

People believe Bello is a top of the rotation guy or at least has that ceiling. I'm not sure he does. Eovaldi is a nice #2 that can have short bursts pitching like a #1.

[mvp 78]

The grass is greener, due to warmer climate and excessive watering.

 

Henry can't afford the irrigation bill anymore.

[mvp 78]

Price was a bad signing. The Red Sox could have had Lester for half the price.

 

If they weren't going to sign Lester, they should have signed Scherzer. Waiting an additional offseason for Price didn't make sense.

[notin]

Bello 1.6 fWAR

Eovaldi 2.5 fWAR

 

People believe Bello is a top of the rotation guy or at least has that ceiling. I'm not sure he does. Eovaldi is a nice #2 that can have short bursts pitching like a #1.

 

 

If we go to fWAR, Eovaldi is essentially Kutter Crawford (2.4 fWAR). Now our “equivalent” guy is considered at best a #5 starter.

[moonslav59]

If they weren't going to sign Lester, they should have signed Scherzer. Waiting an additional offseason for Price didn't make sense.

 

That was the great "what if..."

 

I think they decided to fill the O, one year and the Pitching, the next.

 

Price looked solid, on paper.

 

Injury free.

Work horse.

Consistent top performer.

 

I'm not sure he looked much different from Scherzer, at the times of their signings.

 

The added bonus of signing Scherzer over Price would have likely been NOT to sign Pablito & HRam. If they spent on O, the following year, it's hard to imagine doing worse than those two.

[notin]

Price was a bad signing. The Red Sox could have had Lester for half the price.

 

I bet if I scroll back to 2015 on this message board, the reception for signing Price was heavy, if not universal…

[notin]

If they weren't going to sign Lester, they should have signed Scherzer. Waiting an additional offseason for Price didn't make sense.

 

To be fair, those off-season involved different administrations. The guy who signed Price didn’t have the same chance to sign Scherzer…

[Old Red]

To be fair, those off-season involved different administrations. The guy who signed Price didn’t have the same chance to sign Scherzer…

 

That may have been, but he wouldn’t have been probably thought of if they had not lowballed Lester, and signed him for half the price.

[moonslav59]

If we go to fWAR, Eovaldi is essentially Kutter Crawford (2.4 fWAR). Now our “equivalent” guy is considered at best a #5 starter.

 

Houck had a 2.0 bWAR over his first 2 seasons, combined- 86 IP (16 GS and 5 RP appearances.)

 

Pivetta has had stretches of 20+ starts, where his numbers look better than many teams' #2 or 3 SP'er. He's had bWARs of 2.5, 2.6 and 2.4, the last 3 seasons.

 

In theory, we could have 5 guys over 2.0:

 

Giolito (repeat '19, '20 pro-rated, or 2021)

Bello (repeat 2023)

Pivetta (just repeat 2021, 2022 or 2023)

Crawford (repeat 2023)

Houck (repeat 2020-2021)

 

Why does this seem so unlikely? (It does, to me.)

[Bellhorn04]

Price was a "you gotta do what you gotta do" signing. I was neither happy nor unhappy about it. I definitely understood it. I wouldn't go back and undo it, either. Might be one less ring if you do that.

[Dipre]

Bello 1.6 fWAR

Eovaldi 2.5 fWAR

 

People believe Bello is a top of the rotation guy or at least has that ceiling. I'm not sure he does. Eovaldi is a nice #2 that can have short bursts pitching like a #1.

 

His ceiling is a 1, as is the ceiling for most pitchers with his pedigree. The problem is fulfilling that ceiling. Most prospects never reach their ceiling.

[moonslav59]

I bet if I scroll back to 2015 on this message board, the reception for signing Price was heavy, if not universal…

 

I knew and said it was an overpay and for too long, but felt it was a very necessary signing. I remember saying his profile was about as good as it can be up to the signing.

[mvp 78]

If we go to fWAR, Eovaldi is essentially Kutter Crawford (2.4 fWAR). Now our “equivalent” guy is considered at best a #5 starter.

 

I'm higher on Kutter Crawford than most other posters and think he's much better than a #5. If he was wearing a Mariners cap in '23, posters would be looking to trade for him.

[mvp 78]

That was the great "what if..."

 

I think they decided to fill the O, one year and the Pitching, the next.

 

Price looked solid, on paper.

 

Injury free.

Work horse.

Consistent top performer.

 

I'm not sure he looked much different from Scherzer, at the times of their signings.

 

The added bonus of signing Scherzer over Price would have likely been NOT to sign Pablito & HRam. If they spent on O, the following year, it's hard to imagine doing worse than those two.

 

They certainly filled out an O.

[mvp 78]

To be fair, those off-season involved different administrations. The guy who signed Price didn’t have the same chance to sign Scherzer…

 

Why? What does Ben have to do with DD? Why could DD sign Price, but Ben couldn't sign Max? Isn't it still coming from the same bank account?