Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/red-sox-trade-rumors-alex-verdugo.html?utm_source=twitter

 

@PeteAbe

Craig Breslow readily acknowledged the Sox are getting calls on Alex Verdugo.

[moonslav59]

The problem is an entire outfield core of left-handed hitters (unless Rafaela makes it).

 

Gurriel's six-year 162-game averages: 24 HR, 89 RBI, .279 BA, .791 OPS. He's also a good outfielder, unlike Yoshida and Duran... in '23: 5th in Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average, 3rd in Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Average, and only six (three Gold Glovers) had more Defensive Runs Saved Above Average.

 

Gurriel: 115 OPS+ career (113+ since 2020.)

 

2023:

108 Gurriel

109 Yoshida

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/red-sox-trade-rumors-alex-verdugo.html?utm_source=twitter

 

@PeteAbe

Craig Breslow readily acknowledged the Sox are getting calls on Alex Verdugo.

 

He's as good as gone.

[Hugh2]

He's as good as gone.

 

I don’t think this is indicative of anything.

 

If Verdugo IS traded, I’d expect another move e.g. Soto. Alternatively, If the Sox make such a move I’d be expecting an outfielder to be traded away

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Gurriel: 115 OPS+ career (113+ since 2020.)

 

2023:

108 Gurriel

109 Yoshida

 

You provided a single stat to make them look like the same guy... but it doesn't offset the defensive data I posted that clearly separates them as outfielders. Not to mention that LG is a right-handed hitter with pull power that may be a plus in Fenway Park for 81 games a year.

 

There just aren't a lot of ways for Breslow to appreciably improve the defense in one winter... unless you want to overhaul the infield and trade away a cornerstone in a blockbuster. But anything's possible.

[Bellhorn04]

There just aren't a lot of ways for Breslow to appreciably improve the defense in one winter... unless you want to overhaul the infield and trade away a cornerstone in a blockbuster. But anything's possible.

 

There's the notin Chapman scenario.

 

Red says that's not happening, though.

[notin]

There's the notin Chapman scenario.

 

Red says that's not happening, though.

 

Red said the same thing when I proposed to Sox use Rafaela as a shortstop. Then where did he play that first game?

 

I’d be shocked if they signed Chapman, but it does make sense on some levels.

 

(In the MLBTR Free Agent prediction contest, I predicted Chapman to the Dodgers.)

[Bellhorn04]

Every single one of our ideas is a pipe dream until it's not.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think this is indicative of anything.

 

If Verdugo IS traded, I’d expect another move e.g. Soto. Alternatively, If the Sox make such a move I’d be expecting an outfielder to be traded away

 

I thought he was as good as gone, before this.

 

[moonslav59]

You provided a single stat to make them look like the same guy... but it doesn't offset the defensive data I posted that clearly separates them as outfielders. Not to mention that LG is a right-handed hitter with pull power that may be a plus in Fenway Park for 81 games a year.

 

There just aren't a lot of ways for Breslow to appreciably improve the defense in one winter... unless you want to overhaul the infield and trade away a cornerstone in a blockbuster. But anything's possible.

 

Yes, I read your post on D, and I'm not against adding him.

 

Gurriel is a RHB.

He is much better on D.

 

Here is another O comp:

 

Career:

115 OPS+ Gurriel

105 OPS+ Dugo

 

2020-2023:

113 OPS+ Gurriel

105 OPS+ Dugo

 

2023:

108 OPS+ Gurriel

100 OPS+ Dugo

 

I'm all for signing Gurriel and trading Dugo.

[moonslav59]

Every single one of our ideas is a pipe dream until it's not.

 

Signing Wacha or Cleninger would not be what I call a "pipedream."

 

Signing Severino would be a nightmare.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, I read your post on D, and I'm not against adding him.

 

Gurriel is a RHB.

He is much better on D.

 

Here is another O comp:

 

Career:

115 OPS+ Gurriel

105 OPS+ Dugo

 

2020-2023:

113 OPS+ Gurriel

105 OPS+ Dugo

 

2023:

108 OPS+ Gurriel

100 OPS+ Dugo

 

I'm all for signing Gurriel and trading Dugo.

 

Good stuff; I do think Lourdes as more of a righty version of Dugie (who will be traded), than a replacement for Masa (who will DH more no matter what).

 

Then the platoons become Duran/Rafaela in CF, Abreu/Ref in RF.

 

If Duran can repeat '23, or Raf or Abreu break out, that's not a bad outfield.

[moonslav59]

Good stuff; I do think Lourdes as more of a righty version of Dugie (who will be traded), than a replacement for Masa (who will DH more no matter what).

 

Then the platoons become Duran/Rafaela in CF, Abreu/Ref in RF.

 

If Duran can repeat '23, or Raf or Abreu break out, that's not a bad outfield.

 

I don't want Duran in CF or Ref in RF. It would defeat the plus on D in LF.

[Tedballgame]

I don't want Duran in CF or Ref in RF. It would defeat the plus on D in LF.

 

Signing Refsynder for 2 years was a mistake by Bloom. He is a journeyman who doesn't add much. Hits LHP ok but no power. Pretty good defender but not great. Guys like him are always around. Now he is taking up a roster spot.

[moonslav59]

Signing Refsynder for 2 years was a mistake by Bloom. He is a journeyman who doesn't add much. Hits LHP ok but no power. Pretty good defender but not great. Guys like him are always around. Now he is taking up a roster spot.

 

He places 8th in OBP by all Sox players with his amount of PAs or more since 2004. (That's not his split.)

 

He's been our best batter vs LHPs since 2022, who is still on the roster.

 

He's making peanuts.

 

Mistake?

[Tedballgame]

He places 8th in OBP by all Sox players with his amount of PAs or more since 2004. (That's not his split.)

 

He's been our best batter vs LHPs since 2022, who is still on the roster.

 

He's making peanuts.

 

Mistake?

 

Yes. He is just taking up a roster spot. Comparing him to other underachieving Sox players means nothing.

[Tedballgame]

He hit .248 with 1 homer in 202 ABs. Slugged .317.

[Tedballgame]

I'd rather pay Rafaela the minimum.

[notin]

I'd rather pay Rafaela the minimum.

 

Both options are possible. Refsnyder’s guaranteed money for his one year deal is only $1.3mill above the minimum. And there are several bigger wastes of roster spots on the 40 man roster right now…

[Hugh2]

Signing Refsynder for 2 years was a mistake by Bloom. He is a journeyman who doesn't add much. Hits LHP ok but no power. Pretty good defender but not great. Guys like him are always around. Now he is taking up a roster spot.

 

Omg, they’re paying him 2 million. That’s less than what you pay a bench bat.

 

He’s fine, he’s a bench guy who hits lefties very well. He’s a bargain at that price.

[moonslav59]

Yes. He is just taking up a roster spot. Comparing him to other underachieving Sox players means nothing.

 

8th place among all Sox players since 2004 is comparing him to chumps?

 

Players with 400+ PAs and a worse OBP than Ref's .373 since 2004:

.370 JD Drew

.368 VMart & Mueller

.367 Nixon

.365 Pedey

.363 JD M

.356 Bogey

.343 Devers

among others.

 

Also, only 19 players in all of MLB have more PAs vs LHPs and a higher OPS (.889) than Ref since 2022. All the rest must suck.

[moonslav59]

He hit .248 with 1 homer in 202 ABs. Slugged .317.

 

Now, all of a sudden, we ignore OBP and place great value on SLG?

 

The team had a .324 OBP. The 2004 team had its top 7 players by PA over .365.

 

These are total PAs- not splits...

Sox leaders in 2023 (240+ PAs: )

.367 Casas

.365 Refsnyder

.351 Devers

.346 Duran

.345 Turner (gone)

.338 Yoshida

.324 Verdugo (about to make $9M in 2024)

.303 Duvall

.288 Wong

.279 Kike (gone)

[moonslav59]

Omg, they’re paying him 2 million. That’s less than what you pay a bench bat.

 

He’s fine, he’s a bench guy who hits lefties very well. He’s a bargain at that price.

 

fangraphs placed his value to the Sox at $12.2M over his 2 years with the team (1.5 fWAR in just over 400 PAs)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't want Duran in CF or Ref in RF. It would defeat the plus on D in LF.

 

While he has shown improvement, Duran is not a good MLB centerfielder. By all accounts, Rafaela already is -- and as a prospect who has hit at elite levels on his way to the Show.

 

Duran's best position for Boston may be LF, but so is Yoshida's, and even if the latter gets to DH a lot, he'll still be roaming pastures somewhere. If I had to choose between trading one or the other, I'd like Brez to deal Duran at what may be peak value to optimize his return. I don't think Masa has reached his ceiling yet as a big league batter, and is worth keeping for now (his contract would also bring back less trade value).

 

As for Refsnyder, he is the perfect bench-warmer and a happy role-player, and no poster should waste any more typing time complaining about that.

[Bellhorn04]

While he has shown improvement, Duran is not a good MLB centerfielder. By all accounts, Rafaela already is -- and as a prospect who has hit at elite levels on his way to the Show.

 

Duran's best position for Boston may be LF, but so is Yoshida's, and even if the latter gets to DH a lot, he'll still be roaming pastures somewhere. If I had to choose between trading one or the other, I'd like Brez to deal Duran at what may be peak value to optimize his return. I don't think Masa has reached his ceiling yet as a big league batter, and is worth keeping for now (his contract would also bring back less trade value).

 

What's wrong with Yoshida as full-time DH with the occasional fill-in in LF like JDM? It's even less of an issue with the universal DH.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What's wrong with Yoshida as full-time DH with the occasional fill-in in LF like JDM? It's even less of an issue with the universal DH.

 

Nothing -- except Brez is already talking like he doesn't want a full-time DH.

 

Yoshi seems like he has the kind of bat control where he could just zone in on the Monster and easily hit .300 with tons of singles, bad-bounce doubles and pop-fly HRs that drop over the line. With enough practice and intent, he could even be more effective at it than Devers, because Masa won't try to knock it down.

 

(Raffy won't stop trying, though, so nix any reason or logic)

[moonslav59]

While he has shown improvement, Duran is not a good MLB centerfielder. By all accounts, Rafaela already is -- and as a prospect who has hit at elite levels on his way to the Show.

 

Duran's best position for Boston may be LF, but so is Yoshida's, and even if the latter gets to DH a lot, he'll still be roaming pastures somewhere. If I had to choose between trading one or the other, I'd like Brez to deal Duran at what may be peak value to optimize his return. I don't think Masa has reached his ceiling yet as a big league batter, and is worth keeping for now (his contract would also bring back less trade value).

 

As for Refsnyder, he is the perfect bench-warmer and a happy role-player, and no poster should waste any more typing time complaining about that.

 

\I'd call Ref a platoon LF'er, not a bench warmer.

 

With Duran and Dugo struggling against LHPs, for most of their MLB careers, he should start vs every LHP, and get enough PH'ing chances to end up playing quite a bit (240-280 PAs.)

 

I'm all for Yoshida being our near FT DH, but I could see Brez and Cora sharing the DH role as a way to rest just about everyone, without so many days off and then see this in the OF:

 

LF:

Yoshida vs half RHPs and some LHPs.

Duran vs half RHPs

Refsnyder vs most LHPs

 

CF:

Duran vs half RHPs

Abreu vs some RHPs (starts in AAA)

Rafaela vs all LHPs and some RHPs. (Defensive replacement)

 

RF:

Dugo vs all RHPs and some LHPs

Refsnyder vs some LHPs

[Bellhorn04]

Nothing -- except Brez is already talking like he doesn't want a full-time DH.

 

Ugh.

[moonslav59]

What's wrong with Yoshida as full-time DH with the occasional fill-in in LF like JDM? It's even less of an issue with the universal DH.

 

Agreed.

 

Ideal DH:

140 games Yoshida

11 games Devers (Urias at 3B)

11 games Casas (Devers at 1B)

[mvp 78]

What's wrong with Yoshida as full-time DH with the occasional fill-in in LF like JDM? It's even less of an issue with the universal DH.

 

I think that's the best plan.