Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

I would not trade Duran unless the return was really good. I see him as a key contributor to this team , playing every day and batting leadoff.

 

You are putting a lot of faith into a pretty small sample size vs LHPs in 2023.

 

Duran...

.570 career vs LHPs (.261 OBP)

.445 2021-2022 v LHPs- in 70 PAs (.231 OBP)

 

.749 in 2023 vs LHPs (.327 OBP in just 49 PAs)

 

I do NOT think we should hand him the FT job, when we have Refsnyder:

1.005 in 2022 (.411 OBP in 73 PAs)

.889 from .22-'23 (.422 OBP in 2018 PAs)

 

Top Sox returning batters vs LHPs '22-'23:

.889 Ref

.784 Devers

.783 Story

.777 Casas

.772 Dalbec & Reyes

.746 Yoshida

 

[Bellhorn04]

If Duran is still here, he could start the year as the everyday LFer. If he does badly against lefties he's back in a platoon.

[moonslav59]

If Duran is still here, he could start the year as the everyday LFer. If he does badly against lefties he's back in a platoon.

 

So, you bench our best returning hitter vs LHPs, for this?

 

Might as well trade Ref, if we bench him vs LHPs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Man, the whole baseball world really needs Ohtani to sign soon. Then the amateur speculators can resume speculating about speculations, instead of biding our time bickering about how professional speculators speculate...

 

... and then the Red Sox can acquire some new players, so we don't have to keep pretending to rearrange the existing roster of last place losers.

[Bellhorn04]

So, you bench our best returning hitter vs LHPs, for this?

 

Might as well trade Ref, if we bench him vs LHPs.

 

Ref would only be on the bench if Duran is hitting lefties, so how is that a bad outcome?

 

Ref is a bench bat making $1.85 million. Why would you want to trade him? You need a bench. He'd still get some AB's against lefties and would be an insurance policy against Duran struggling vs. lefties.

[dgalehouse]

Refsnyder can be of some use off the bench. But he is really just another run of the mill type. Duran has the ability to be a dynamic and exciting player.

[notin]

I'm sure they would prefer Anthony. They might prefer Bleis & Abreu, instead.

 

Some, here, feel Keller is a number 3 type, so it's not like we are getting an ace.

 

We’d be getting an upgrade. The term “ace” is meaningless until someone comes up with an actual meaning…

[notin]

Refsnyder can be of some use off the bench. But he is really just another run of the mill type. Duran has the ability to be a dynamic and exciting player.

 

Duran looked exciting in 2023, but didn’t look like a Major Leaguer in 2022 (and Sean McDonough said so on air). If he can be the 2023 Duran, screw platooning - play him full time. (His 120 career PA vs LHP have spread out over 3 years and therefore don’t tell us anything.)

[moonslav59]

Ref would only be on the bench if Duran is hitting lefties, so how is that a bad outcome?

 

Ref is a bench bat making $1.85 million. Why would you want to trade him? You need a bench. He'd still get some AB's against lefties and would be an insurance policy against Duran struggling vs. lefties.

 

I can't see Duran outhitting Ref vs LHPs, and his speed does not make up the difference.

 

Ref only has value playing vs LHPs. If he won't be starting vs LHPs, then trade him.

[moonslav59]

Duran looked exciting in 2023, but didn’t look like a Major Leaguer in 2022 (and Sean McDonough said so on air). If he can be the 2023 Duran, screw platooning - play him full time. (His 120 career PA vs LHP have spread out over 3 years and therefore don’t tell us anything.)

 

We do know Ref has the best OPPS vs LHPs of all returning Sox players.

 

The best Duran has done was .749 in less than 50 PAs in '23.

[harmony]

Man, the whole baseball world really needs Ohtani to sign soon. Then the amateur speculators can resume speculating about speculations, instead of biding our time bickering about how professional speculators speculate...

 

... and then the Red Sox can acquire some new players, so we don't have to keep pretending to rearrange the existing roster of last place losers.

"Let’s get this out of the way: Boston looks like an unlikely landing spot for Ohtani." The Boston Globe's Alex Speier wrote Thursday.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-insider-pours-cold-water-on-boston-signing-polarizing-superstar-steve1

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/09/sports/this-baseball-offseason-its-shohei-ohtani-who-has-first-move/

[moonslav59]

"Let’s get this out of the way: Boston looks like an unlikely landing spot for Ohtani." The Boston Globe's Alex Speier wrote Thursday.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-insider-pours-cold-water-on-boston-signing-polarizing-superstar-steve1

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/09/sports/this-baseball-offseason-its-shohei-ohtani-who-has-first-move/

 

I hope the Yanks get him.

[notin]

We do know Ref has the best OPPS vs LHPs of all returning Sox players.

 

The best Duran has done was .749 in less than 50 PAs in '23.

 

 

Duran is never going to hit LHP if he’s limited to 40PA per year…

[notin]

"Let’s get this out of the way: Boston looks like an unlikely landing spot for Ohtani." The Boston Globe's Alex Speier wrote Thursday.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-insider-pours-cold-water-on-boston-signing-polarizing-superstar-steve1

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/09/sports/this-baseball-offseason-its-shohei-ohtani-who-has-first-move/

 

I think none of us expected him…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2023 Second Basemen by bWAR Semien 7.4, Kim 5.8, Gimenez 5.3, Hoerner 5.1, Marte 4.9, Arraez 4.9, Albies 4.7, Stott 4.3, GLEYBAR 2.9, Altuve 2.8, DUBON 2.7 (overall value, including 79 games at 2B),

 

ZACK GELOF 2.6, Julien 2.6, GORMAN 2.4 (75 G @ 2B), CABALLERO 2.4, McNeil 2.4, ESTRADA 2.3, Lowe 2.1, IBANEZ 2.0 (77 G @ 2B), POLANCO 2.0, DRURY 1.9, RENGIFO 1.9, Schneider 1.8, NICKY LOPEZ 1.8 (49 G @ 2B), Frazier 1.7, TURANG 1.6, INDIA 1.4, Westburg 1.2

 

BTV: Gelof 20.5, Gorman 38, Caballero 8.8, Estrada 21.8, Ibanez 4.3, Lopez 5.1, India 7.7...

 

... have at it.

[mvp 78]

If Duran is still here, he could start the year as the everyday LFer. If he does badly against lefties he's back in a platoon.

 

In the absence of making any moves:

 

Duran - starting LFer

Rafaela - starting CFer

Verdugo - starting RFer

Abreu - 4th OFer

Refsnyder - 5th OFer/platoon for tough lefties

 

Masa - fulltime DH

[mvp 78]

So, you bench our best returning hitter vs LHPs, for this?

 

Might as well trade Ref, if we bench him vs LHPs.

 

He doesn't have much trade value, but most of his splits were carried by his 2022 season. He wasn't really that good in 2023 (828 OPS with LF only glove). Duran hit 749 vs LHP with a similar defensive profile, but was an impact runner on the basepaths.

[Bellhorn04]

In the absence of making any moves:

 

Duran - starting LFer

Rafaela - starting CFer

Verdugo - starting RFer

Abreu - 4th OFer

Refsnyder - 5th OFer/platoon for tough lefties

 

Masa - fulltime DH

 

Yassir.

[mvp 78]

"Let’s get this out of the way: Boston looks like an unlikely landing spot for Ohtani." The Boston Globe's Alex Speier wrote Thursday.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-insider-pours-cold-water-on-boston-signing-polarizing-superstar-steve1

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/09/sports/this-baseball-offseason-its-shohei-ohtani-who-has-first-move/

 

Sox don't make any sense for Ohtani IMO. I think the contract is too high and he can't pitch this season. He's also coming off his second TJS. Why would a brand new CBO take that risk?

[mvp 78]

Duran is never going to hit LHP if he’s limited to 40PA per year…

 

He gave everyone a glimpse last season. Give him the shot to earn a starting job this year.

[notin]

He gave everyone a glimpse last season. Give him the shot to earn a starting job this year.

 

That’s fine, too. And he doesn’t need to be in a platoon. If Cora wants to get Refsnyder’s bat into the lineup vs LHP, Duran isn’t the only lefty on the roster….

[notin]

I can't see Duran outhitting Ref vs LHPs, and his speed does not make up the difference.

 

Ref only has value playing vs LHPs. If he won't be starting vs LHPs, then trade him.

 

None this matters.

 

“Outhit” doesn’t mean “outplayed.”

 

Why does Refsnyder have to platoon with Duran? He can pinch hit, sun vs LHP for Verdugo, Yoshida, etc.?

 

It’s not like his defense is needed. Ever.

[mvp 78]

2023 Second Basemen by bWAR Semien 7.4, Kim 5.8, Gimenez 5.3, Hoerner 5.1, Marte 4.9, Arraez 4.9, Albies 4.7, Stott 4.3, GLEYBAR 2.9, Altuve 2.8, DUBON 2.7 (overall value, including 79 games at 2B),

 

ZACK GELOF 2.6, Julien 2.6, GORMAN 2.4 (75 G @ 2B), CABALLERO 2.4, McNeil 2.4, ESTRADA 2.3, Lowe 2.1, IBANEZ 2.0 (77 G @ 2B), POLANCO 2.0, DRURY 1.9, RENGIFO 1.9, Schneider 1.8, NICKY LOPEZ 1.8 (49 G @ 2B), Frazier 1.7, TURANG 1.6, INDIA 1.4, Westburg 1.2

 

BTV: Gelof 20.5, Gorman 38, Caballero 8.8, Estrada 21.8, Ibanez 4.3, Lopez 5.1, India 7.7...

... have at it.

 

No way will OAK move on from Gelof and that value is way too low on him. Gorman is LHB and a bad 2B. Caballero is a low ceiling guy with a good glove. Estrada is Caballero with pop, but less control. Ibanez is a cheap replacement, but on the older side. Lopez had one really good season, but hits LH anyway. India is one of the worst fielding 2b in the league.

 

Aside from India, they'd all be upgrades from what we have in varying degrees. I'm not sure all the teams would be amenable to trades, especially OAK.

 

I'd rank them:

 

Gelof (trade Yorke and Drohan)

Estrada

Caballero

Lopez

Ibanez

Gorman (LHB, not a good defender, expensive to obtain)

India

[Bellhorn04]

That’s fine, too. And he doesn’t need to be in a platoon. If Cora wants to get Refsnyder’s bat into the lineup vs LHP, Duran isn’t the only lefty on the roster….

 

Down goes moon!

 

It's OK moon, this is no hill for anyone to die on...

[mvp 78]

That’s fine, too. And he doesn’t need to be in a platoon. If Cora wants to get Refsnyder’s bat into the lineup vs LHP, Duran isn’t the only lefty on the roster….

 

He definitely isn't the only LHB. Verdugo will need days off. Rafaela can be moved to other positions (2B/RF) to help cover platoon issues. In that scenario, Duran slides to CF and Refsnyder plays LF.

[mvp 78]

Down goes moon!

 

It's OK moon, this is no hill for anyone to die on...

 

We've all died on many different hills over the years.

[moonslav59]

Duran is never going to hit LHP if he’s limited to 40PA per year…

 

That's what they said about Dugo... and he never did.

[mvp 78]

That's what they said about Dugo... and he never did.

 

Dugo hit LHP well in 2020. He never did it again.

 

Duran hit LHP well in 2023. We just have to see if he can do it again.

[moonslav59]

Down goes moon!

 

It's OK moon, this is no hill for anyone to die on...

 

The only reason Ref is on the team is to play vs LHPs. I suppose he could play RF a few games, while Dugo gets one of his dozen scheduled days off. He could DH, when Yoshida gets his dozen, and we can watch Duran flail against LHPs. all year.

 

MVP points out that Ref's .828 OPS vs L's, last year was not great. While true, it was still way better than most returning Sox players who play corner OF, and it's the differential that counts.

 

.875 McGuire (27 PAs reverse split)

.828 Refsnyder (.428 OBP!!!!!)

.824 Devers

.817 Casas

.787 Urias

.772 Reyes

.749 Duran (Note to notin: .327 OBP and ZERO SBs in his 49 PAs vs LHPs.)

.746 Yoshida (to DH)

.645 Rafaela

.624 Story

.609 Dugo (Maybe Ref should platoon in RF.)

.501 Wong

.400 Abreu (10 PAs)

.393 EValdez (16 PAs)

 

I'm not "dying on a hill," but Ref needs to start every single game vs a LH'd SP'er, or he's near useless. (He's barely worth his roster slot, as it is.)

[Bellhorn04]

Refsnyder is making $1.85 mill in 2024, only a tick above minimum wage. You don't have to generate much value to earn that - about .2 or .3 fWAR.

 

You really think Alex Cora won't find him a bunch of AB's one way or the other?