Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fellas, let's agree about something. What the last place losing record Red Sox really need are better baseball players...

 

... on the mound, with the gloves and with the bats.

 

We know they're going nowhere without adding some serious arms. But star players can replace the (ahem) incumbents at just about any position except third base -- or wherever Raffy Devers isn't.

 

Boston can plug a few new guys into the rotation, but let's get real about a few dependable starting pitchers pole-vaulting this roster over any AL East opponent.

 

The fans deserve a complete overhaul, and if that includes some prospects assuming fulltime roles, great. Otherwise, let the offseason acquisitions begin!

[Bellhorn04]

Acquiring a couple of strong starters will have positive ripple effects through the whole team. The bullpen gets better with Houck there. Then you can look at other pieces you need, make a trade or two. But without solidifying the rotation it's going to be more of the same. Breslow knows it and he says the owners are ready to spend, so let's have some fun.

[moonslav59]

Bellinger is projected by MLBTR to get 12 freakin' years (LOL). It's not just about the AAV.

 

I don't want Bellinger at that money. My point was that trading Dugo as part of a more comprehensive plan may make sense.

[moonslav59]

Do you honestly think this management team is going to fill every single need we have?

 

That's a packaged question but the short answer is no. However every hole is always filled, the question is where do you allocate more resources???. A platoon in the outfield can plug up a hole and that may work fine, but when you're rolling out 1-2 platoons with guys who absoluteyl can't field, and might not be able to hit MLB pitching and you trade away a starter then you're just creating a hole and banking on everything smelling like roses and working out in our favor. I'm not talking about pouring resources into the outfield. I'm talking about NOT subtracting from the outfield. Polar opposites.

 

OF shoots up the list if you trade away a starting right fielder. Although I'd still put Starting pitcher at the top of the list.

 

We also don't know how the Sox are viewing the offseason. They might be looking a guy like Houck who pitched as good as any #1 starting pitcher in innings 1-3, but then fell off. If the Sox see that as a stamina problem and not a stuff problem they might view him as a starter if he can add endurance. He is reportedly making that a focus of his offseason. I still think pitching should be and IS a priority but my point there is they might only really be looking to add one solid starter and not two.

 

Fair answer.

 

I think most advocating a trade of Dugo are also suggesting we add a RH'd OF'er- like Duvall.

 

Yes, he is less reliable, but it still leaves us with 6 OF'ers.

 

While a Duran-Refsnyder platoon in LF might not be great on D, it would be an improvement over Yoshida's LF D. I think they could combine for a zero OAA in 2024.

 

Yoshida could play some LF in Fenway or other easier LF's, on rare occassions, and Duran could play some CF, when that happens, of vs some LHPs, but less time in CF than 2023 would b e an improvement on D in CF. Of course relying on Duvall, Rafaela, Abreu and maybe Rosier to cover almost all the CF & RF innings is a risk. I agree.

 

My point is that relying on Sale and a bunch of long relief guys to fill 3-4 rotation slots is a much bigger risk.

 

Urias and Reyes at 2B and back-up SS/3B is an equal risk.

 

Wong & McGuire are, too.

 

IMO, OF is a lesser risk with Duvall replacing Dugo and the other 5-6 guys earning the other 3-4 slots (and DH.)

 

It's not a slam dunk choice. I respect yours and others' opinions on this.

 

If we could afford to keep Dugo and add Duvall, while meeting the rotation needs plus an upgrade at maybe 2B OR C, I'd be 100% behind that plan.

 

As of now, I'm not sold on a total commitment by the top brass. I'll be overjoyed, if they splurge as needed, but I'm not counting on it.

 

I'm going on the assumption we spend $50-70M and probably don't trade a top 5 prospect. If we do more than that, we can probably go status quo on the OF, which would mean adding Duvall but also a better chance of Rafaela and/or Abreu helping AND keeping Dugo.

 

[moonslav59]

Being deeper does not necessarily mean quality. They went real deep at 2B last year too, but not much quality.

 

I get it, and agree.

 

I'm tired of quantity over quality. It had its place during the rebuild, but now is the time to go quality.

 

The issue I see, at hand, is how many quality guys can and will we add, this winter and can we spend up to the second tax line and or trade a top prospect for one big need. Until we know those answers, I'm working on the assumption that every dollar spent in one place means it's that many less spent in another place.

 

I'm fine with anyone disagreeing with my priority rankings. If OF is a bigger need than other areas, in your opinion, fine. That position has merit, too.

 

Our OF hit .676 in 2022. It hit .783 in 2023.

We are subtracting Duvall and adding more of Rafaela, Abreu and Duran.

 

I see 2B, with a .663 OPS in 2023 and one of the worst defenses of any position on the team as a higher need. Tell me I'm wrong, and say why.

 

I see catcher as at worst an equal need area. They hit .673 and did not seem to do all that well on framing and blocking. They handled SBs well. I'm not sure about how well they handled the staff. I could see signing Garver as a better plan than keeping Dugo- not that the costs balance out.

 

Most of all, I see our rotation as the clear high need area, and I'm talking 3 slots.

At minimum, we need 2 top pitchers, and that could cost the full $50M we may have budgeted for this winter. If we have $70M, we have to choose how we spend it and where.

 

RHB that fills one or two of these 3 slots:

CF/RF

2B

C

 

We can't fill all three without a prospect trade or going "light" or "mediocre" at 1 or 2 of those slots. One way we might be able to do it is to add a RHB while adding $9M to the budget by swapping Duvall for Dugo. That changes the equation from $20M for 3 slots to $20M for 2 slots, with a higher risk in RF than we'd have had by keeping Dugo. Is that higher risk worth having $20M for 2 slots not 3?

 

IMO, the quality jump from spending $10M x 2 vs $6.7M x 3 or $20M x 1 vs $10M x 2 is worth more than we might lose from a Duvall to Dugo swap.

 

There is a chance Duvall does better than Dugo, too.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing about Verdugo is he's relatively durable.

[moonslav59]

Acquiring a couple of strong starters will have positive ripple effects through the whole team. The bullpen gets better with Houck there. Then you can look at other pieces you need, make a trade or two. But without solidifying the rotation it's going to be more of the same. Breslow knows it and he says the owners are ready to spend, so let's have some fun.

 

Adding 2 top SP'ers would do wonders for the whole staff- from top to bottom, especially if both give us 175+ IP in 2024.

 

IMO, adding 3 solid SP'er who all give us 170+ IP would make our pen one of, if not the best pen the Sox have ever had. It could also be a revolutionary one, in regards to having 4 major long relief arms (Houck, Crawford, Whitlock & Pivetta) capable of being excellent in that role. It's no sure bet all 4 will be, but even if 3 are, the pen would be great.

 

SP1 ____

SP2 ____

SP3 Bello

SP4 ____

SP5 Sale (or Pivetta)

 

Long Relief

Houck

Crawford

Whitlock

Pivetta or Murphy

 

Short relief

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber/Bernardino

 

Maybe, I'm a homer, but this looks fantastic, to me.

[Old Red]

I get it, and agree.

 

I'm tired of quantity over quality. It had its place during the rebuild, but now is the time to go quality.

 

The issue I see, at hand, is how many quality guys can and will we add, this winter and can we spend up to the second tax line and or trade a top prospect for one big need. Until we know those answers, I'm working on the assumption that every dollar spent in one place means it's that many less spent in another place.

 

I'm fine with anyone disagreeing with my priority rankings. If OF is a bigger need than other areas, in your opinion, fine. That position has merit, too.

 

Our OF hit .676 in 2022. It hit .783 in 2023.

We are subtracting Duvall and adding more of Rafaela, Abreu and Duran.

 

I see 2B, with a .663 OPS in 2023 and one of the worst defenses of any position on the team as a higher need. Tell me I'm wrong, and say why.

 

I see catcher as at worst an equal need area. They hit .673 and did not seem to do all that well on framing and blocking. They handled SBs well. I'm not sure about how well they handled the staff. I could see signing Garver as a better plan than keeping Dugo- not that the costs balance out.

 

Most of all, I see our rotation as the clear high need area, and I'm talking 3 slots.

At minimum, we need 2 top pitchers, and that could cost the full $50M we may have budgeted for this winter. If we have $70M, we have to choose how we spend it and where.

 

RHB that fills one or two of these 3 slots:

CF/RF

2B

C

 

We can't fill all three without a prospect trade or going "light" or "mediocre" at 1 or 2 of those slots. One way we might be able to do it is to add a RHB while adding $9M to the budget by swapping Duvall for Dugo. That changes the equation from $20M for 3 slots to $20M for 2 slots, with a higher risk in RF than we'd have had by keeping Dugo. Is that higher risk worth having $20M for 2 slots not 3?

 

IMO, the quality jump from spending $10M x 2 vs $6.7M x 3 or $20M x 1 vs $10M x 2 is worth more than we might lose from a Duvall to Dugo swap.

 

There is a chance Duvall does better than Dugo, too.

SP, and SP are still the top two priorities, and that will take a good part of the budget to spend. I’m fine with Duvall coming back, but that’s not a certainty.

[moonslav59]

One thing about Verdugo is he's relatively durable.

 

That's a big plus, and also a major part of his decent fWAR numbers over recent years.

 

He's pretty steady on O, too, but to me, he's barely above mediocre on O. He looked good on D, in 2023, but he was never impressive, before, so I'm not so sure he repeats 2023 in 2024 on D. There is no reason to think he won't, but he may not.

 

Here are two reasons why trading him makes sense.

 

1. We need better hitters vs LHPs, and one could argue Dugo should be platooned.

career OPS:

.807 v R

.665 v L

 

2023

.793 v R

.609 v L

 

2. He had several instances of attitude issues with very little evidence that he learned anything from them.

 

Who knows? Maybe he has a bust out year in his "contract year," and I'll be wrong, once again, but to me, swapping Duvall for Dugo, so we can have more resources for other positional upgrades makes the most sense.

[moonslav59]

SP, and SP are still the top two priorities, and that will take a good part of the budget to spend. I’m fine with Duvall coming back, but that’s not a certainty.

 

No, it's not.

 

We don't know what the winter budget is, or if any major trades of prospects will be made.

 

If the budget is $50M and no big prospect trades are made, which is a likely scenario, I don't see how we add two top SP'ers and also quality upgrades, elsewhere.

 

We need a RHB. No other position, except RF offers the opportunity to not add to the budget and fill a RHB need. (Swap Duvall for Dugo.)

 

And, this doesn't even factor in what we get for Dugo!

[Old Red]

Adding 2 top SP'ers would do wonders for the whole staff- from top to bottom, especially if both give us 175+ IP in 2024.

 

IMO, adding 3 solid SP'er who all give us 170+ IP would make our pen one of, if not the best pen the Sox have ever had. It could also be a revolutionary one, in regards to having 4 major long relief arms (Houck, Crawford, Whitlock & Pivetta) capable of being excellent in that role. It's no sure bet all 4 will be, but even if 3 are, the pen would be great.

 

SP1 ____

SP2 ____

SP3 Bello

SP4 ____

SP5 Sale (or Pivetta)

 

Long Relief

Houck

Crawford

Whitlock

Pivetta or Murphy

 

Short relief

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber/Bernardino

 

Maybe, I'm a homer, but this looks fantastic, to me.

Houck, and Whitlock back to the pen would make it even deeper, and stronger. I don’t think Martin will duplicate last year, but he still should be good. Jansen is a year older, and a bigger question to me if he can hold up through the year with those creaky old bones, and joints.

[moonslav59]

Houck, and Whitlock back to the pen would make it even deeper, and stronger. I don’t think Martin will duplicate last year, but he still should be good. Jansen is a year older, and a bigger question to me if he can hold up through the year with those creaky old bones, and joints.

 

All true and possible, but on paper, the pen I listed looks better than any one I've seen on the Sox in over 50 years of following them.

 

All pitchers have questions and concerns. All the 4 long relief guys I listed have way better stats as RP'ers than SP'ers.

 

Our short guys may not match up to some from other past Sox teams, especially at closer, but even the short guys look 4 strong. We even have some decent depth with Bernardino, Kelly and others. That's a huge plus over last year's pen depth, once so many pen guys were forced to start. (Not to mention way too many pen games.)

[Old Red]

No, it's not.

 

We don't know what the winter budget is, or if any major trades of prospects will be made.

 

If the budget is $50M and no big prospect trades are made, which is a likely scenario, I don't see how we add two top SP'ers and also quality upgrades, elsewhere.

 

We need a RHB. No other position, except RF offers the opportunity to not add to the budget and fill a RHB need. (Swap Duvall for Dugo.)

 

And, this doesn't even factor in what we get for Dugo!

I don’t believe you can upgrade all that you mentioned by FA alone. If no trades are made with prospects I don’t see that the upgrades will happen either. Outside of trades SP is not going to be cheap unless you pass on the top 3-4 available.

[notin]

With Turner gone, there's no reason not to move Yoshida to DH.

 

There certainly is. But that scenario is unlikely…

[notin]

Houck, and Whitlock back to the pen would make it even deeper, and stronger. I don’t think Martin will duplicate last year, but he still should be good. Jansen is a year older, and a bigger question to me if he can hold up through the year with those creaky old bones, and joints.

 

He’s 36, not 60!

 

That said, his ticker has always been the bigger concern…

[Old Red]

He’s 36, not 60!

 

That said, his ticker has always been the bigger concern…

 

Jansen pitched the least amount of innings last year since his rookie year outside of the Covid year. I know he’s only 36, but his body isn’t as young as Martin’s.

[notin]

This attitude is why the Sox hired Crag instead of you.

 

I actually didn’t realize I was that close…

[notin]

Jansen pitched the least amount of innings last year since his rookie year outside of the Covid year. I know he’s only 36, but his body isn’t as young as Martin’s.

 

Well, the Sox also didn’t get him as many save opportunities…

[notin]

Yes. SIX.

 

Yoshida

Duran

Refsnyder (one of MLB's best batters vs LHP over the last 2 years)

Dugo

Rafaela

Abreu

(Rosier might make 7.)

 

 

And that leaves enough bench space for a backup catcher, preferably one who can also play all four infield positions. Simultaneously, if possible…

[moonslav59]

I don’t believe you can upgrade all that you mentioned by FA alone. If no trades are made with prospects I don’t see that the upgrades will happen either. Outside of trades SP is not going to be cheap unless you pass on the top 3-4 available.

 

I agree. I doubt we spend even just to below the second line, which is $70M, and that might not be enough to fill the 6-7 highest needs. More likely 4-5.

 

To win in 2024, I feel we need one major prospect trade plus $50-70M spent. If we do that, a Dugo-Duvall swap out won't matter all that much, unless Duvall sucks or get hurt, all year.

[moonslav59]

And that leaves enough bench space for a backup catcher, preferably one who can also play all four infield positions. Simultaneously, if possible…

 

Yoshida will DH, and we may very well start Rafaela or Abreu in AAA. It doesn't mean we don't have 6 OF'ers who can play OF.

 

I get it. I'd prefer quality to quantity, too.

 

I'm not saying OF is all set.

 

I'm saying other areas are higher need areas with less depth.

[harmony]

Columnists Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic list the Red Sox among the select best fits for Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Hyun-jin Ryu, Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson:

 

https://theathletic.com/5029170/2023/11/06/free-agents-mlb-list/

Subscription required.

[moonslav59]

Columnists Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic list the Red Sox among the select best fits for Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Hyun-jin Ryu, Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson:

 

https://theathletic.com/5029170/2023/11/06/free-agents-mlb-list/

Subscription required.

 

No surprise.

[notin]

Columnists Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic list the Red Sox among the select best fits for Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Hyun-jin Ryu, Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson:

 

https://theathletic.com/5029170/2023/11/06/free-agents-mlb-list/

Subscription required.

 

 

 

So … SP and 2b? Breaking news…

[mvp 78]

He’s 36, not 60!

 

That said, his ticker has always been the bigger concern…

 

He was diagnosed with AFB back in 2011. It really hasn't held him back considerably.

[mvp 78]

Yes. SIX.

 

Yoshida

Duran

Refsnyder (one of MLB's best batters vs LHP over the last 2 years)

Dugo

Rafaela

Abreu

(Rosier might make 7.)

 

Rosier has 12 games played in AAA. Why would you count him?

[moonslav59]

Rosier has 12 games played in AAA. Why would you count him?

 

I said "might," but yes, I should not have mentioned him.

[sk7326]

There are varying degrees of significant uncertainty in what all of Abreu/Duran/Rafaela/Yoshida will give you next year. Alex Verdugo's 1.8 fWar could easily be the 1st or 2nd best fWar in the outfield given your 2023 performances. What if Yoshida doesn't improve? heck what if his defense gets even worse? what if Abreu is a bust? what if Duran regresses? There's just sooooooo much potential for ugliness out there I don't know why team would trade a guy just because they should trade him to get something for him.

 

By that logic alone, every single player with 1 year of team control, with obvious caveats that we shouldn't jump into for simplicity (E.G. resign franchise players like Bogaerts) we shouldn't jump into.

 

Maybe we should talk about trading Pivetta, why not, there are at least a ton of options to replace him in free agency and on this roster!?!?!?!?

 

If you think you have a chance of winning in 2024, you should really keep Verdugo for a year.

 

Yes. Verdugo is a plus asset at the price and contract. Now if he could help bring some solid controllable pitching - that would be a different deal.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Too bad. Signing Gurriel isn't going to fix that problem for you.

 

The problem is an entire outfield core of left-handed hitters (unless Rafaela makes it).

 

Gurriel's six-year 162-game averages: 24 HR, 89 RBI, .279 BA, .791 OPS. He's also a good outfielder, unlike Yoshida and Duran... in '23: 5th in Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average, 3rd in Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Average, and only six (three Gold Glovers) had more Defensive Runs Saved Above Average.

[notin]

He was diagnosed with AFB back in 2011. It really hasn't held him back considerably.

 

Still been his biggest health issue…