Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

One trade that just seems to make some sense is Jarren Duran to Miami for Edward Cabrera.

 

It’s a flop on BTV. Duran is valued at $30m while Cabrera is $8.5m. Of course, last September Duran was around $7mill while Cabrera was $26mill. So there is some volatility in both sides here.

 

The fits are obvious for both teams. Both players are highly talented but very inconsistent. Both have 5 years of control left and make minimum wage. And both bill weaknesses for the other team while in positions depth on their own…

 

I wouldn't do it.

 

Duran for Cabrera and maybe Berti?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One trade that just seems to make some sense is Jarren Duran to Miami for Edward Cabrera.

 

It’s a flop on BTV. Duran is valued at $30m while Cabrera is $8.5m. Of course, last September Duran was around $7mill while Cabrera was $26mill. So there is some volatility in both sides here.

 

The fits are obvious for both teams. Both players are highly talented but very inconsistent. Both have 5 years of control left and make minimum wage. And both bill weaknesses for the other team while in positions depth on their own…

 

It's interesting which of Verdugo or Duran has more trade value this winter -- I'm talking beyond salary/control -- as in, which guy offers more desirable assets for contenders or rebuilders?

 

One is a good outfielder and good hitter; the other turns singles into doubles and steals pizza boxes ripe for the taking under new MLB rules.

 

FanGraphs gave Duran 2.4 WAR and Verdugo 2.0 WAR last year.

 

Baseball-Reference gave Verdugo 2.6 WAR and Duran 2.1 WAR last year.

 

Since both formulas are performance-based, I assume neither considers paychecks or years under contract?

[moonslav59]

I’m ok with Urías.

 

Not an elite hitter, but has pop and some plate discipline. Grades out average at 2b in limited time there.

 

He seems fairly average at the position, which makes it an upgrade right there…

 

Urias does offer much of the same hopes as some being talked about as our possible new 2Bman. He was really good "way back" in 2021 (112 OPS+,) and 2022 (108 OPS+) wasn't bad, either. He's dealt with some injuries, so maybe 2024 is a bounce back year.

 

Urias has a career dWAR or +2.1, with almost equal times at 3B, SS and 2B.

2B OAA (2018-2023)

+17 Merrifield

+10 Story

+9 A Frazier

+0 L Urias

-2 B Donovan

-3 C Arroyo

-21 Torres

 

DRS

23 Kike

19 Frazier

11 Arroyo

2 Merrifield

00 L Urias

-3 Torres

 

UZR/150

6.3 Arroyo

2.0 Merrifield

1.9 Frazier

0.3 Urias

-3.5 Torres

-4.0 Kike

 

[moonslav59]

It's interesting which of Verdugo or Duran has more trade value this winter -- I'm talking beyond salary/control -- as in, which guy offers more desirable assets for contenders or rebuilders?

 

One is a good outfielder and good hitter; the other turns singles into doubles and steals pizza boxes ripe for the taking under new MLB rules.

 

FanGraphs gave Duran 2.4 WAR and Verdugo 2.0 WAR last year.

 

Baseball-Reference gave Verdugo 2.6 WAR and Duran 2.1 WAR last year.

 

Since both formulas are performance-based, I assume neither considers paychecks or years under contract?

 

BTV also considers years of control.

 

It is my understanding that basically, it's something like this:

 

Dolllar value of 1 year of projected performance x years of control - salary or total salary projection.

[notin]

BTV also considers years of control.

 

It is my understanding that basically, it's something like this:

 

Dolllar value of 1 year of projected performance x years of control - salary or total salary projection.

 

They use some sites with multiyear projections, but it’s basically projected WAR (converted to USD) minus projected salary…

[notin]

It's interesting which of Verdugo or Duran has more trade value this winter -- I'm talking beyond salary/control -- as in, which guy offers more desirable assets for contenders or rebuilders?

 

One is a good outfielder and good hitter; the other turns singles into doubles and steals pizza boxes ripe for the taking under new MLB rules.

 

FanGraphs gave Duran 2.4 WAR and Verdugo 2.0 WAR last year.

 

Baseball-Reference gave Verdugo 2.6 WAR and Duran 2.1 WAR last year.

 

Since both formulas are performance-based, I assume neither considers paychecks or years under contract?

 

WAR is just performance. And only applicable for one year…

[notin]

I wouldn't do it.

 

Duran for Cabrera and maybe Berti?

 

I’m torn.

 

The thing is, I just don’t see where Duran fits into the Sox defense. Especially if they try to get a right-handed bat. In that case, it only works out with Duran in LF and the RHH in RF.

 

The Sox could (against my wishes) put Duran in CF. Not good defensively, but Cora did play him there a lot last year…

[moonslav59]

I’m torn.

 

The thing is, I just don’t see where Duran fits into the Sox defense. Especially if they try to get a right-handed bat. In that case, it only works out with Duran in LF and the RHH in RF.

 

The Sox could (against my wishes) put Duran in CF. Not good defensively, but Cora did play him there a lot last year…

 

It's simple.

 

Yoshida to DH near FT.

 

Duran is fine in LF and may continue improving to the point where he might be okay as a back-up CF'er.

 

If he sucks vs LHPs, we have Refsnyder, who I would start the season as a LF platoon with Duran. Duran could be a very nice leadoff hitter vs RHPs, which is about 120-125 games a year- starting. He could PH vs RHPs or PR late in games.

 

I realize his value seems to jump all over the place, and he could drop, again in 2024. This could be the "sell high moment" we felt we missed a few years back.

 

I get the point that Dugo is a better defender and plays RF. But he has just one year left, and we can't platoon Ref in RF, without a big hit on D.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m torn.

 

The thing is, I just don’t see where Duran fits into the Sox defense. Especially if they try to get a right-handed bat. In that case, it only works out with Duran in LF and the RHH in RF.

 

The Sox could (against my wishes) put Duran in CF. Not good defensively, but Cora did play him there a lot last year…

 

Dont know how long Brez Ops would tolerate that... Werner says we're "goin full throttle" this year, Cora's last under contract.

 

Oxford's verb meaning of throttle is "attack or kill someone by choking or strangling them." Someone needs to tell Tom fans are done with choking.

[moonslav59]

Yoshida DH

 

Duran-Ref platoon in LF

 

Rafaela/Abreu work out who plays CF mostly. (Platoon?)

 

Swap RHB for Dugo in RF. (Duvall?)

 

It's not rocket science.

 

[notin]

Yoshida DH

 

Duran-Ref platoon in LF

 

Rafaela/Abreu work out who plays CF mostly. (Platoon?)

 

Swap RHB for Dugo in RF. (Duvall?)

 

It's not rocket science.

 

 

 

You do realize the Sox are t (and shouldn’t) have that many platoons.

 

It’s also a bit confusing that you think Duran is a platoon player but still isn’t worth trading for a 25 yo pitcher who was only worth 0.3 bWAR less last year (in only 99 IP) and has the same years of control remaining…

[moonslav59]

You do realize the Sox are t (and shouldn’t) have that many platoons.

 

It’s also a bit confusing that you think Duran is a platoon player but still isn’t worth trading for a 25 yo pitcher who was only worth 0.3 bWAR less last year (in only 99 IP) and has the same years of control remaining…

 

1. Being the long side platoon means 400+ PAs, if he never starts vs a LHP- maybe 450-500, if he PH's or PRs and stays in the game.

2. He showed he could hit LHPs, okay last year, and could morph into a FT LG'er.

3. He has speed that could help as PR when he does not start.

4. I'm not high on Cabrera. I might trade Dugo for him.

5. I did not say start the season with a CF platoon. I said let one earn the job. I put "platoon?" in parenthesis, afterwards as a possibility. I'm not sure why, if all are on the 26, two platoons would be so awful. The two that are sitting might end up playing in many of the games they started on the bench.

 

If Abreu or Rafaela start in AAA, of course, there would be no platoon.

 

With Duvall in RF over Dugo, the L-R splits should be way more evened out. (Dugo probably should have been platooned, if we had a decent defensive RF'er who hit LHPs, well.)

[moonslav59]

If Duran's BTV value is correct to a few GMs, we can get better than Cabrera in return.

[oldtimer]

Yoshida DH

 

Duran-Ref platoon in LF

 

Rafaela/Abreu work out who plays CF mostly. (Platoon?)

 

Swap RHB for Dugo in RF. (Duvall?)

 

It's not rocket science.

 

I'd much rather we unload Yoshida and his salary if at all possible. He is slow, hits fairly well from the left side, but without great power and is a below average left fielder. He may have some value in attracting Yammamoto. On the other hand, Duran cost less, has above average speed is flexible enough to play any outfield position, but certainly not at the GG level. He is younger and hits similarly to Yoshida. If we can rid ourselves of Yoshida's contract we should be able to find a quality right hand DH who could at least provide some flexibility in the infield.

 

I'm okay with trying Rafaela and Abreu in the outfield and see if one can shine enough to take the position, while the second becomes our utility outfielder. I would consider dropping Ref.

 

It looks more and more like Dugo will be traded and I like the idea of signing a quality right handed hitter with good defensive capability as our every day right fielder. It what you mention happens, we could wind up with two right handed hitters in the outfield and my thought would give us a right handed H.

 

With SS and Catcher being right handers anx 2nd unsettled, we could achieve more lineup balance. Teal, Anthony and Mayer seem closest to the majors and are all lefties. It will be interesting to see who Breslow offers in trade since we will have to give to get 2 starters unless we can sign Yammamoto and a quality FA

 

I am anxious to see Breslow get started early instead of approaching the business with delay and indecision as was the case with Bloom.

 

[notin]

1. Being the long side platoon means 400+ PAs, if he never starts vs a LHP- maybe 450-500, if he PH's or PRs and stays in the game.

2. He showed he could hit LHPs, okay last year, and could morph into a FT LG'er.

3. He has speed that could help as PR when he does not start.

4. I'm not high on Cabrera. I might trade Dugo for him.

5. I did not say start the season with a CF platoon. I said let one earn the job. I put "platoon?" in parenthesis, afterwards as a possibility. I'm not sure why, if all are on the 26, two platoons would be so awful. The two that are sitting might end up playing in many of the games they started on the bench.

 

If Abreu or Rafaela start in AAA, of course, there would be no platoon.

 

With Duvall in RF over Dugo, the L-R splits should be way more evened out. (Dugo probably should have been platooned, if we had a decent defensive RF'er who hit LHPs, well.)

 

 

I get not being high on Cabrera, but I have some pretty mixed emotions about Duran, who’s about a year and a hdd as LF older and whose career is actually less impressive to date…

[moonslav59]

I get not being high on Cabrera, but I have some pretty mixed emotions about Duran, who’s about a year and a hdd as LF older and whose career is actually less impressive to date…

 

I certainly share your concerns about Duran.

 

Many of us were lamenting the fact that we did not deal him when his stock was high, before the start of 2023. Now, it is backup, and we are dragging our feet.

 

Maybe, I'm clinging to false hopes, but the guy had a .350 OBP vs RHPs in 2023 with 22 SBs in 313 PAs. The 40 XBHs projects to over 80 per 650 PAs!

 

His D improved to the point where he'd be fine as a LF'er.

 

His .749 OPS v LHPs was better than most Sox batters.

 

Maybe I'm fooled. Maybe not.

 

His career splits:

 

.762 v R (30 SB & 65 XBHs in 578 PAs)

.570 v L (3 SB and 6 XBHs in 119 PAs)

 

That is scary as hell. If any GM values Duran as BTV does ($30M plus), then trading him makes sense, too.

 

I don't think a single poster, here, thinks Duran is the team's 5th most valuable player/prospect, which BTV values him as.

[notin]

I certainly share your concerns about Duran.

 

Many of us were lamenting the fact that we did not deal him when his stock was high, before the start of 2023. Now, it is backup, and we are dragging our feet.

 

Maybe, I'm clinging to false hopes, but the guy had a .350 OBP vs RHPs in 2023 with 22 SBs in 313 PAs. The 40 XBHs projects to over 80 per 650 PAs!

 

His D improved to the point where he'd be fine as a LF'er.

 

His .749 OPS v LHPs was better than most Sox batters.

 

Maybe I'm fooled. Maybe not.

 

His career splits:

 

.762 v R (30 SB & 65 XBHs in 578 PAs)

.570 v L (3 SB and 6 XBHs in 119 PAs)

 

That is scary as hell. If any GM values Duran as BTV does ($30M plus), then trading him makes sense, too.

 

I don't think a single poster, here, thinks Duran is the team's 5th most valuable player/prospect, which BTV values him as.

 

I think he’s over valued and Cabrera is undervalued on BTV. Both Steamer and FDGC project Cabrera for 1.7 fWAR next year, which is more than either projects for Duran. Given the equal money situation for both, it’s actually a fair deal regardless of what BTV says.

 

Of course if Breslow thought of moving Duran back to second base, that’s another thing. But if his role is strong side of a corner OF platoon while providing mediocre defense, the Sox would probably be better off with a starting pitcher…

[moonslav59]

I think he’s over valued and Cabrera is undervalued on BTV. Both Steamer and FDGC project Cabrera for 1.7 fWAR next year, which is more than either projects for Duran. Given the equal money situation for both, it’s actually a fair deal regardless of what BTV says.

 

Of course if Breslow thought of moving Duran back to second base, that’s another thing. But if his role is strong side of a corner OF platoon while providing mediocre defense, the Sox would probably be better off with a starting pitcher…

 

All this doesn't change my concerns about Cabrera. If they threw in Berti, and we give up Ref, I might say yes.

 

Your plan could create a situation where we sign Duvall, and have this...

 

Yoshida DH and some LF

Duvall LF

Rafaela & Abreu CF

Dugo RF

 

Apparently the Astros need OF help, what about Duran for Javier or another Astros SP?

[Duran Is The Man]

I'd much rather we unload Yoshida and his salary if at all possible. He is slow, hits fairly well from the left side, but without great power and is a below average left fielder. He may have some value in attracting Yammamoto. On the other hand, Duran cost less, has above average speed is flexible enough to play any outfield position, but certainly not at the GG level. He is younger and hits similarly to Yoshida. If we can rid ourselves of Yoshida's contract we should be able to find a quality right hand DH who could at least provide some flexibility in the infield.

 

I'm okay with trying Rafaela and Abreu in the outfield and see if one can shine enough to take the position, while the second becomes our utility outfielder. I would consider dropping Ref.

 

It looks more and more like Dugo will be traded and I like the idea of signing a quality right handed hitter with good defensive capability as our every day right fielder. It what you mention happens, we could wind up with two right handed hitters in the outfield and my thought would give us a right handed H.

 

With SS and Catcher being right handers anx 2nd unsettled, we could achieve more lineup balance. Teal, Anthony and Mayer seem closest to the majors and are all lefties. It will be interesting to see who Breslow offers in trade since we will have to give to get 2 starters unless we can sign Yammamoto and a quality FA

 

I am anxious to see Breslow get started early instead of approaching the business with delay and indecision as was the case with Bloom.

 

 

i agree on unloading Yoshida. That's a ton of money for very little production that we could desperately use on pitching.

[moonslav59]

i agree on unloading Yoshida. That's a ton of money for very little production that we could desperately use on pitching.

 

It's unrealistic.

 

We'd be paying for him to play elsewhere.

 

I'd rather hope he has adjusted and will thrive as a DH.

 

[notin]

I'd much rather we unload Yoshida and his salary if at all possible. He is slow, hits fairly well from the left side, but without great power and is a below average left fielder. He may have some value in attracting Yammamoto. On the other hand, Duran cost less, has above average speed is flexible enough to play any outfield position, but certainly not at the GG level. He is younger and hits similarly to Yoshida. If we can rid ourselves of Yoshida's contract we should be able to find a quality right hand DH who could at least provide some flexibility in the infield.

 

I'm okay with trying Rafaela and Abreu in the outfield and see if one can shine enough to take the position, while the second becomes our utility outfielder. I would consider dropping Ref.

 

It looks more and more like Dugo will be traded and I like the idea of signing a quality right handed hitter with good defensive capability as our every day right fielder. It what you mention happens, we could wind up with two right handed hitters in the outfield and my thought would give us a right handed H.

 

With SS and Catcher being right handers anx 2nd unsettled, we could achieve more lineup balance. Teal, Anthony and Mayer seem closest to the majors and are all lefties. It will be interesting to see who Breslow offers in trade since we will have to give to get 2 starters unless we can sign Yammamoto and a quality FA

 

I am anxious to see Breslow get started early instead of approaching the business with delay and indecision as was the case with Bloom.

 

 

 

Like Matt Chapman?

[moonslav59]

Like Matt Chapman?

 

If we found a taker for Yoshida, I could see Chapman.

[moonslav59]

I think he’s over valued and Cabrera is undervalued on BTV. Both Steamer and FDGC project Cabrera for 1.7 fWAR next year, which is more than either projects for Duran. Given the equal money situation for both, it’s actually a fair deal regardless of what BTV says.

 

…

 

I guess I just avoid getting worked up about high K and high BB pitchers. You keep waiting for them to "gain control," and more often than not, they never do.

 

Cabrera knows this is his major issue and must be working on it, but he's gotten worse- not better.

 

2021-2022

98 IP 3.77 ERA

9.5 K/9

4.8 BB/9

6.2 H/9

 

2023: 4.24 ERA

10.7 K/9

6.0 BB/9

6.6 H/9

 

Although DHern pitched way fewer IP, here was his line after 3 seasons:

79 IP: 3.66 ERAS

14.2 K/9 (one of MLB very best in history after 75 IP)

7.4 BB/9

7.0 H/9

 

I'm just not sold on E Cab. I think there are other SP'ers we could get for Duran that are not so volitile.

[notin]

I guess I just avoid getting worked up about high K and high BB pitchers. You keep waiting for them to "gain control," and more often than not, they never do.

 

Cabrera knows this is his major issue and must be working on it, but he's gotten worse- not better.

 

2021-2022

98 IP 3.77 ERA

9.5 K/9

4.8 BB/9

6.2 H/9

 

2023: 4.24 ERA

10.7 K/9

6.0 BB/9

6.6 H/9

 

Although DHern pitched way fewer IP, here was his line after 3 seasons:

79 IP: 3.66 ERAS

14.2 K/9 (one of MLB very best in history after 75 IP)

7.4 BB/9

7.0 H/9

 

I'm just not sold on E Cab. I think there are other SP'ers we could get for Duran that are not so volitile.

 

 

Comparing the K and BB of starters to relievers isn’ta good reason.

 

4.8 BB/9 is awful, but I don’t see anyone shying away from Blake Snell or Charlie Morton.

 

I’m not sold on Cabrera, but I’m also not sold on Duran. He was great in 2023, at least as a hitter. His fielding did improve, but it honestly had to considering how utterly pathetic he was in 2022.

 

And it doesn’t appear you’re all that sold on Duran since he’s always a platoon player. It’s not hard to find a lefty hitter that struggles against lefties; he’d be easy to replace in that regard…

Edited November 12, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted these trades (not sure I'd do them:)

 

Dugo, Yorke & Drohan for Donovan & Woodford

Dugo & EValdez for Torres & Y Gomez

Dugo & Bleis for Corbin Burnes

Dugo & Jansen for Javier & Dubon

Dugo & Schreiber for AJ Puk

Dugo for Javier & S Dubin

Dugo for M Dubon & M Tamarez

Dugo, Walter & Jimenez for Gabe Speier

Dugo, Yorke & Mata for Soto

 

Duran & Mayer for M Keller, Bednar & B Reynolds

Duran, Yorke & Mata for Dylan Cease

Duran for Donovan & Matz

Duran for Luis Garcia & Dubon & C Javier (HOU would say NO!)

[notin]

BTV accepted these trades (not sure I'd do them:)

 

Dugo, Yorke & Drohan for Donovan & Woodford

Dugo & EValdez for Torres & Y Gomez

Dugo & Bleis for Corbin Burnes

Dugo & Jansen for Javier & Dubon

Dugo & Schreiber for AJ Puk

Dugo for Javier & S Dubin

Dugo for M Dubon & M Tamarez

Dugo, Walter & Jimenez for Gabe Speier

Dugo, Yorke & Mata for Soto

 

Duran & Mayer for M Keller, Bednar & B Reynolds

Duran, Yorke & Mata for Dylan Cease

Duran for Donovan & Matz

Duran for Luis Garcia & Dubon & C Javier (HOU would say NO!)

 

 

What teams actually make sense for Verdugo and/or Duran?

 

St. Louis has an overcrowded outfield already. They’ve been shopping Carlson and O’Neill (who is a very smart option for Boston).

 

Milwaukee has Yelich for a few more years and has a slew of younger outfielders already (Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, etc.)

 

Those teams are almost definitely not going to want the Sox outfielders.

 

I would guess the most likely destinations for Verdugo are teams that think they have a chance in 2024 but need another outfielder. Seattle, Houston, Cleveland, and Miami all make sense, along with probably a few others. Duran might appeal to any team that needs OF help thanks to his control and salary.

 

But some of these rebuilding teams like the White Sox probably prefer the higher potential guys. I don’t see Duran as a key piece for Cease. It’s probably safe to assume Cease is off the table until Roman Anthony is placed on it (at a minimum). The Pirates also are probably not going to break up their current rotation for an MLB player with a ticking clock.

[moonslav59]

The Pirates also are probably not going to break up their current rotation for an MLB player with a ticking clock.

 

A 5 year "ticking clock."

 

Keller has 2 years.

Bednar has 3 years.

Reynolds has 7 expensive years, whereas Duran will be cheap. (No way he stays with the Pirates for 7 years.)

[notin]

A 5 year "ticking clock."

 

Keller has 2 years.

Bednar has 3 years.

Reynolds has 7 expensive years, whereas Duran will be cheap. (No way he stays with the Pirates for 7 years.)

 

 

Yeah but someone like Anthony would probably appeal to them much more.

 

How many years will Duran have left while they are replacing Keller and Bednar?

[moonslav59]

Yeah but someone like Anthony would probably appeal to them much more.

 

How many years will Duran have left while they are replacing Keller and Bednar?

 

I'm sure they would prefer Anthony. They might prefer Bleis & Abreu, instead.

 

Some, here, feel Keller is a number 3 type, so it's not like we are getting an ace.

[dgalehouse]

I would not trade Duran unless the return was really good. I see him as a key contributor to this team , playing every day and batting leadoff.