Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Bellhorn04]

I’m glad I stuck to my guns on Bello.

 

You could see his potential last night, he’s still very young and learning to pitch but he has that competitive edge you love to see on the mound.

 

Yeah, it was a faux pas by Verducci when he said Sale was the only Sox starter with big time stuff.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, it was a faux pas by Verducci when he said Sale was the only Sox starter with big time stuff.

 

Verducci noted batters were hitting Bello's slider. But when the guy controls a 98 four-seamer, 97 sinker and a change-up... what would Alfred E. Newman say?

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it was a faux pas by Verducci when he said Sale was the only Sox starter with big time stuff.

 

Houck and Whitlock have some very "good stuff," too.

[notin]

Verducci noted batters were hitting Bello's slider. But when the guy controls a 98 four-seamer, 97 sinker and a change-up... what would Alfred E. Newman say?

 

“What? Me worry about being a defunct pop culture reference only recognized by hexagenarians?”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

“What? Me worry about being a defunct pop culture reference only recognized by hexagenarians?”

 

... especially when most of us are too old to bother to look up the definition of the label.

 

Wanda fans will just assume it has to do with posters possessed by a hex... though we're thankful Doctor Strange is powerful enough to cast a spell to protect us all from the prehistoric thesaurus.

[Nick]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/5/10/23717980/an-open-letter-to-nick-pivetta-red-sox

 

This is a very good read.

 

An Open Letter To Nick Pivetta

 

Couple of my favorite passages

 

"I’ll still always be on your side because you are my favorite player after all and I’m just loyal like that, but I really would appreciate it if you stopped having a Hard Hit % of over 50 on three out of four of your main pitches."

 

"Still, you’ve got time! Sure, you have a 6.09 ERA in your last 24 starts, but hey man, I know what you can do."

 

My last words on Nick Pivetta.....HELL I WANT HIM TO BE AN ALL-STAR. I'm a Red Sox fan. I never root against a Sox player. I may not like a player, but would never root against him.

[Larry Cook]

Houck and Whitlock have some very "good stuff," too.

 

Houck has a killer slider, the rest looks average to me.

Whitlock has really good stuff but makes arroyo look durable

[moonslav59]

Houck has a killer slider, the rest looks average to me.

Whitlock has really good stuff but makes arroyo look durable

 

Okay, but I thought we were just talking about "stuff."

 

If we are talking durability, why mention Sale?

 

Also, how durable is Bello? He's never been tested beyond 118 IP in a minor league season and 95 in 2021 before combining 3 levels into 153 IP, last season

[Maxbialystock]

Verducci noted batters were hitting Bello's slider. But when the guy controls a 98 four-seamer, 97 sinker and a change-up... what would Alfred E. Newman say?

 

They got 2 singles off Bello's slider. The dinger was off that fastball. In this game Bello did not use the slider all that often. Mostly heat and cut heat. He likes that changeup, but wasn't putting it where he wants it.

[moonslav59]

They got 2 singles off Bello's slider. The dinger was off that fastball. In this game Bello did not use the slider all that often. Mostly heat and cut heat. He likes that changeup, but wasn't putting it where he wants it.

 

He still has things to work on and work out, but it was good to see him put the fire out on a good hitting team like the Braves.

 

The natives were getting restless in Sox Nation.

[Hugh2]

So Piveta to the pen, who is out in the pen?

When Whitlock comes back and Houck goes to the pen who is pushed out of the pen then? (I know some would start Houck and Move G.W. to the pen but I don't think the Sox are going to do that...yet).

 

Could a Braiser DFA actually be in the cards over the next month?

[moonslav59]

So Piveta to the pen, who is out in the pen?

When Whitlock comes back and Houck goes to the pen who is pushed out of the pen then? (I know some would start Houck and Move G.W. to the pen but I don't think the Sox are going to do that...yet).

 

Could a Braiser DFA actually be in the cards over the next month?

 

I'll take a stab at this...

 

Bernardino has options: he will go when Whitlock, Crawford or Joely is called up.

 

The second one should be Brasier or Bleier- both out of options- so DFA or trade.

 

I can't see them demoting Bello over the idea that keeping Brasier and or Bleier on the 40 matters more.

 

Maybe, they trade Pivetta.

[Hugh2]

I'll take a stab at this...

 

Bernardino has options: he will go when Whitlock, Crawford or Joely is called up.

 

The second one should be Brasier or Bleier- both out of options- so DFA or trade.

 

I can't see them demoting Bello over the idea that keeping Brasier and or Bleier on the 40 matters more.

 

Maybe, they trade Pivetta.

 

That seems about right. I could see a Pivetta trade, but I think it's a little premature. It would be a bad look if he pitched well somewhere else, not that he's going to be an ace he's Nick Pivetta, and teams know what they're getting. He will have a nice consistent run of mediocracy at some point this season and probably end with a 4.75 ERA. A team with playoff aspirations who are comfortable with the top of their rotation but lacking depth would find value in him; but how is that going to look here if you lose a guy or two to injury?

 

They've already shown they're willing to option Bello once and that surprised me then, it would surprise me even more now if they did it again but that is the life of someone life him at times. But it feels like we're just scratching the surface with him, and once he's more comfortable he will be more consistent. He could be our #2 behind Sale. Bleier is on my list too.

 

I didn't realize Bernardino has options, the dude is 31 years old!!! and has options.

[moonslav59]

That seems about right. I could see a Pivetta trade, but I think it's a little premature. It would be a bad look if he pitched well somewhere else, not that he's going to be an ace he's Nick Pivetta, and teams know what they're getting. He will have a nice consistent run of mediocracy at some point this season and probably end with a 4.75 ERA. A team with playoff aspirations who are comfortable with the top of their rotation but lacking depth would find value in him; but how is that going to look here if you lose a guy or two to injury?

 

They've already shown they're willing to option Bello once and that surprised me then, it would surprise me even more now if they did it again but that is the life of someone life him at times. But it feels like we're just scratching the surface with him, and once he's more comfortable he will be more consistent. He could be our #2 behind Sale. Bleier is on my list too.

 

I didn't realize Bernardino has options, the dude is 31 years old!!! and has options.

 

Trading Pivetta would be a mistake, IMO. We have so many fragile and or sketchy starters, that having 6 may not be nearly enough. Paxton is such a total guess, that it will take quite a few starts from him to get any feel for expectation.

 

I'm 100% against demoting Bello. I see him as our #2 SP'er, right now.

 

I doubt it comes to DFA'ing Brasier and Belier, since someone else will likely get hurt, but if it comes to that, I see it as the best option. With our AAA pitching depth is disarray, I fear the Sox top brass wants to keep as many options on the table as possible, despite many of our belief that the waiver wire can provide pitchers equal to or better than Brasier and Bleier (and Ort.) Bernardino kinda showed that.

[notin]

I'll take a stab at this...

 

Bernardino has options: he will go when Whitlock, Crawford or Joely is called up.

 

The second one should be Brasier or Bleier- both out of options- so DFA or trade.

 

I can't see them demoting Bello over the idea that keeping Brasier and or Bleier on the 40 matters more.

 

Maybe, they trade Pivetta.

 

The Sox pitchers with options are Bernardino, Bello, Schreiber and Winckowski.

 

I do hope they DFA Brasier before demoting the last 3. But it’s not a guarantee…

[moonslav59]

The Sox pitchers with options are Bernardino, Bello, Schreiber and Winckowski.

 

I do hope they DFA Brasier before demoting the last 3. But it’s not a guarantee…

 

Agree.

 

The last 3 have been within our top 5 or 6 pitchers, this year, Demoting them would be a mistake, IMO.

[Jasonbay44]

I don’t get why they’re so hesitant to get rid of Brasier, he’s 35 and it can’t be hard to find a guy better than the 7 ERA and negative war he provides…

[notin]

I don’t get why they’re so hesitant to get rid of Brasier, he’s 35 and it can’t be hard to find a guy better than the 7 ERA and negative war he provides…

 

It would have made more sense to keep Littell…

[moonslav59]

I don’t get why they’re so hesitant to get rid of Brasier, he’s 35 and it can’t be hard to find a guy better than the 7 ERA and negative war he provides…

 

It's been a years long mystery.

 

Maybe it will all end, this month.

[Maxbialystock]

This discussion on pitcher retention options--like who to DFA--is erudite and insightful and way over my head.

 

Whoever said there ain't much good pitching left in Worcester definitely got my attention.

 

On the other hand, I think that, with Paxton, Whitlock, and Crawford coming off the IL this month, the big club has a lot of almost decent pitching. That includes 8 starters: Sale, Bello, Houck, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock.

 

Yes, certainly, Sale, Bello, and Houck are the only semi-reliable starters, but quantity has a quality of its own.

 

And backing those 8 up are Winckowski, Jansen, Schreiber, Martin, and Bernardino, all 5 of whom have WAR's ranging from +1.1 to +0.4. If we assume that Crawford and Whitlock go back to the bullpen when they come off the IL, that's 7 pretty good relievers.

 

None of the above resolves the issue of who to DFA.

 

While I agree that Brasier deserves to be Public Enemy #1 on the charts, it is also worth noting that this month, May, he has pitched in 4 games and given up 1 meaningless run (Sox beat the Jays 11-5).

 

In April Brasier pitched in 13 games and gave up 1 or more runs in 4 of them and 0 runs in the other 9 games.

 

Overall, he has pitched in 18 games, including 1 on March 30. In those 18 games, Brasier's malfeasance was costly in two games: the 29 April 8-7 loss (10 innings) to the Orioles in which he gave up 3 runs and the--wait for it!!!!--the March 30th loss, also to the Orioles, 10-9, in which Brasier also gave up 3 runs.

 

So, if you are completely looney tunes and want to keep the scrofulous, worthless, low down, no good Brasier on the roster, I have a modest proposal. Don't send him to the mound against the Orioles.

[moonslav59]

It just seems like our offense is so powerful and has shown it can score late and often, we don't need 6th inning RP'er that put us in deeper holes.

 

I had high hopes in our AAA pitching depth, this year (Mata, Walter, Murphy, Kelly, Mills and others,( but they have almost all fallen flat on their faces to start the season.

 

We still have a pretty good 13-15 pitchers, but with 3-5 on the IL, at any given time, we end up with Brasier, Bleier and at times Ort needed in games still within reach.

[Maxbialystock]

It just seems like our offense is so powerful and has shown it can score late and often, we don't need 6th inning RP'er that put us in deeper holes.

 

I had high hopes in our AAA pitching depth, this year (Mata, Walter, Murphy, Kelly, Mills and others,( but they have almost all fallen flat on their faces to start the season.

 

We still have a pretty good 13-15 pitchers, but with 3-5 on the IL, at any given time, we end up with Brasier, Bleier and at times Ort needed in games still within reach.

 

Tonight against the Cardinals Paxton pitched well and the bullpen--specifically Winckowski and Jansen--stunk to high heaven.

 

What was the name of the Gilda Radnor book? "It's Always Something."

[moonslav59]

Tonight against the Cardinals Paxton pitched well and the bullpen--specifically Winckowski and Jansen--stunk to high heaven.

 

What was the name of the Gilda Radnor book? "It's Always Something."

 

"If it isn't one thing, it's another..."

[moonslav59]

I guess we were due for a Wink or Jansen implosion, and if it was just one, we probably win.

[Old Red]

Good outing by Paxton last night, and he had some some good velo in that old soup bone. 87 pitches, and good control although I’d say the HP umpire was a little generous on some of the called strikes, but hope he can go at least 6 next time, which will be against Bogey, and the boys, which should be another good test.

[Nick]

We just need to get Whitlock back healthy. The same goes for Crawford (we miss him). Rodriguez is to be activated on Monday.

 

This is what our staff may look like soon. I don't see how Brasier stays on......but on paper this can be a decent staff, if we can fix the starting rotation. There's depth in the pen if for example we move Houck and Whitlock (definitely NOT advocating this).

 

1 Sale

2 Paxton

3 Kluber

4 Pivetta

5 Whitlock

6 Houck

7 Bello

8 Kutter

9 Winckowski

10 Schreiber

11 Martin

12 Jansen

13 Rodrigues

14 Bernardino

15 Bleier

16 Brasier

[moonslav59]

We just need to get Whitlock back healthy. The same goes for Crawford (we miss him). Rodriguez is to be activated on Monday.

 

This is what our staff may look like soon. I don't see how Brasier stays on......but on paper this can be a decent staff, if we can fix the starting rotation. There's depth in the pen if for example we move Houck and Whitlock (definitely NOT advocating this).

 

1 Sale

2 Paxton

3 Kluber

4 Pivetta

5 Whitlock

6 Houck

7 Bello

8 Kutter

9 Winckowski

10 Schreiber

11 Martin

12 Jansen

13 Rodrigues

14 Bernardino

15 Bleier

16 Brasier

 

With 13 slots and 16 names, here one has good reason to think Brasier will not make the 13. It's a bit amazing to think a day may arise where we have no top 16 pitcher on the IL. There is still a few days, so something could go wrong, but it's an interesting topic of discussion.

 

Most teams and GM like to keep as many "options on the table" as possible, because they know injuries are likely, and they seem to value their own and "the known" more than trying to find a journeyman pitcher that pitches like Bernardino has since we added him. There are probably 5 or 10 failures for everyone that works out okay, or better. We have all seen better pitchers demoted to AAA to allow more options to "stay on the table," but with our staff is such a high need of continued improvement, keeping the best 12 or 13 on the 13 man staff seems urgently needed.

 

Here are the pitchers with options remaining, according to soxprospects.com:

 

Sure bets on 13:

Houck (The only question with him being on the 13 is pen or rotation?)

Whitlock (same as Houck)c

 

Should almost certainly be on the 13:

Winckowski (Has been a very consistent top performer, all year)

Crawford (Was one of our top 3-4 performing pitchers before his injury.)

Bello (Might be our 2nd or 3rd best SP, and our rotation is a big weak area.)

Schreiber (Seems to have earned a slot after 2022 and the start of 2023: 2.23 ERA)

Bernardino (Will certainly be demoted, despite doing pretty well for the Sox.)

 

So, demoting Bernardino brings us to 15.

 

Looking at just the numbers:

Worst ERA (ERA+)

6.75 Brasier 69

6.37 Sale 73

6.29 Kluber 74

6.23 Pivetta 74

6.19 Whitlock 76

5.51 Bleier 85

5.26 Houck 88

5.01 Bello 93

 

OPS Against

.960 Whitlock

.882 Bello

.865 Pivetta

.842 Kluber

.815 Sale

.755 Bleier (Worst RP'er on list)

.735 Brasier (2nd worst)

.723 Jansen

.689 Schreiber

.688 Houck

.646 Martin

.629 Crawford

(.619 Bernardino)

.618 Paxton

.606 Winckowski

 

Maybe more important is to look at just Brasier, Bleier and the 3 pitchers with options (Crawford, Wink, Bello) not named Schreiber, Houck or Whitlock and recent performance levels:

 

Last 28 Days:

.882 Bello

.820 Brasier

.697 Wink

.625 Bleier

.351 Crawford

 

Last 14 Days

.833 Wink (thanks to last night)

.777 Bello

.773 Bleier

.725 Brasier

.533 Crawford

 

How much do these numbers help? It's hard to know.

 

I'd DFA or trade Brasier and Bleier, since I think we can find their equals on the waiver wire, if we cut them, and then someone gets hurt.

 

It won't shock me, if they demote Bello to keep the lefty Bleier, but Brasier should be next, after Bernardino's demotion.

 

 

[moonslav59]

We just need to get Whitlock back healthy. The same goes for Crawford (we miss him). Rodriguez is to be activated on Monday.

 

This is what our staff may look like soon. I don't see how Brasier stays on......but on paper this can be a decent staff, if we can fix the starting rotation. There's depth in the pen if for example we move Houck and Whitlock (definitely NOT advocating this).

 

1 Sale

2 Paxton

3 Kluber

4 Pivetta

5 Whitlock

6 Houck

7 Bello

8 Kutter

9 Winckowski

10 Schreiber

11 Martin

12 Jansen

13 Rodrigues

14 Bernardino

15 Bleier

16 Brasier

 

My ordered 13 list from SP'ers, through long men, set up men and then the closer listed as #13 would be:

 

1. Sale

2. Bello

3. Kluber

4. Paxton

5. Houck

6. Pivetta

7. Whitlock

8. Crawford

9. Winckowski

10. Rodriguez

11. Schreiber

12. Martin

13. Jansen

 

14. Bernardino to AAA

15. Bleier trade/DFA

16. Brasier trade/DFA

[notin]

My ordered 13 list from SP'ers, through long men, set up men and then the closer listed as #13 would be:

 

1. Sale

2. Bello

3. Kluber

4. Paxton

5. Houck

6. Pivetta

7. Whitlock

8. Crawford

9. Winckowski

10. Rodriguez

11. Schreiber

12. Martin

13. Jansen

 

14. Bernardino to AAA

15. Bleier trade/DFA

16. Brasier trade/DFA

 

So… Brasier closing?

[moonslav59]

So… Brasier closing?

 

My "list of 13."