Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[notin]

The Sox lost out to a Chicken Tenders Pub Sub. Sad!

 

That’s why you open with Kelly’s roast beef…

[notin]

Our pitching has been bad, but I think we are slightly better than 27th.

 

25th in ERA- at 112 (just passed by STL)

23rd in WHIP

18th in xFIP

15th K-BB%

14th in SIERA

 

 

ERA is really a measure of pitching plus defense plus ballpark. FIP eliminates the defense (albeit questionably) and xFIP normalizes the ballpark factor.

 

None of them are good alone…

[mvp 78]

That’s why you open with Kelly’s roast beef…

 

They do BOGO?

[Old Red]

Like you know just how good every other teams' pitching is.

 

Come on, be wholly truthful.

 

These are rankings.

 

Our pitching sucks. I have never said otherwise. My eye test agrees.

 

My point was that we might not be 29th as the ERA stat shows. Hell, maybe we're 30th.

 

I'm just trying to show the whole truth and let people decide, but only facts that back up your eyes count as being truthful, it appears.

 

I was only talking about our pitching when I mentioned the eye test. You have to go by some kind of stats when you are talking about what the other teams are doing when they are not playing against the Sox.

[Maxbialystock]

Our pitching has been bad, but I think we are slightly better than 27th.

 

25th in ERA- at 112 (just passed by STL)

23rd in WHIP

18th in xFIP

15th K-BB%

14th in SIERA

 

 

I'm looking at ESPN MLB team stats, and it says the Sox team ERA is 5.09, ranked 27th. St Louis is 4.46, ranked 20th. Cincinnati is 26th with an ERA of 5.01.

 

I also went to MLB standings (where the Sox are 22-20). The Sox have given up 225 runs, which puts them 26th in that category. The White Sox, Royals, and Athletics have given up more runs.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

ERA is really a measure of pitching plus defense plus ballpark. FIP eliminates the defense (albeit questionably) and xFIP normalizes the ballpark factor.

 

None of them are good alone…

 

Agreed.

 

All I was trying to say is that we might not have the 29th worst pitching staff.

 

I don't watch every pitch of every other team's games. I only watch the Sox.

 

Maybe we actually have the worst staff. I provided other numbers that seem to indicate while we are still bad, in comparison, maybe we are not as bad as 29th.

 

I know our D is worse than most teams.

 

I know our park is viewed as a hitter's park.

 

I'm pretty sure our opponents have better offenses than most team's pitchers have faced, but I'm not sure on that.

 

Saying we not not be 29th is not saying we don't still suck in that area. IMO, we have sucked, up to now, anyway.

[Maxbialystock]

Agreed.

 

All I was trying to say is that we might not have the 29th worst pitching staff.

 

I don't watch every pitch of every other team's games. I only watch the Sox.

 

Maybe we actually have the worst staff. I provided other numbers that seem to indicate while we are still bad, in comparison, maybe we are not as bad as 29th.

 

I know our D is worse than most teams.

 

I know our park is viewed as a hitter's park.

 

I'm pretty sure our opponents have better offenses than most team's pitchers have faced, but I'm not sure on that.

 

Saying we not not be 29th is not saying we don't still suck in that area. IMO, we have sucked, up to now, anyway.

 

I said the Sox team ERA is 27th in MLB, not 29th.

 

On tonight's game thread I proposed starting Bello, not Pivetta, and tomorrow night starting Paxton, who will have 5 days rest by then. With the bullpen in desperate need of arms, time to move Pivetta.

 

Did you know that Pivetta's OPS-against the first time he pitches to the opposing team's lineup is 1.062?

[Maxbialystock]

His health is the X factor of course. But a $34 million risk is not that big for a team with the Red Sox wealth. We've thrown away multiples of that before and got nothing for it.

 

Admittedly I'm an Eovaldi fanboy.

 

Nate's a fascinating case study. He can be very, very good--no question--and this year he's borderline great: 8 starts, 53 innings (almost 7 innings per start), and an ERA of 2.70.

 

However, the Rangers are his 6th team, and the Sox had him the longest, 5 seasons (one of which was like 2 months--2016). His best season was 2021, with the Sox, when he started 32 games, pitched 195 innings, and had a WAR of 4.6 and an ERA of 3.75. So, if anyone knew his capabilities, it was us. This does not mean he won't continue to excel for the Rangers, but I do understand the Sox reluctance to re-sign Eovaldi.

[Bellhorn04]

Nate's a fascinating case study. He can be very, very good--no question--and this year he's borderline great: 8 starts, 53 innings (almost 7 innings per start), and an ERA of 2.70.

 

However, the Rangers are his 6th team, and the Sox had him the longest, 5 seasons (one of which was like 2 months--2016). His best season was 2021, with the Sox, when he started 32 games, pitched 195 innings, and had a WAR of 4.6 and an ERA of 3.75. So, if anyone knew his capabilities, it was us. This does not mean he won't continue to excel for the Rangers, but I do understand the Sox reluctance to re-sign Eovaldi.

 

The Sox seemed reluctant to sign any starters who cost real money this offseason...and so we ended up with Kluber.

[moonslav59]

The Sox seemed reluctant to sign any starters who cost real money this offseason...and so we ended up with Kluber.

 

We did offer more for Eflin. I think it was $11M x 2. Even that is rarely going to get you a solid #2 or #3.

 

Had we known Duran was going to morph from a butterfly to an eagle, we could have used Duvall's money ($7M) to add to Kluber's, but who saw that coming?

 

Had we Known Kike was going to suck, this badly, we could have used his money ($10M).

 

I think the Turner signing was needed, especially with what Casas was going to be in question and with the departure of JD.

 

I think the pen money was needed, and it was apparently spent pretty well, despite recent developments.

 

So, Kluber (10) + Duvall (7) + Kike (10) could have gotten us what? (Plus, who plays SS?)

 

$27M AAV was what Rodon got, but the added years... YUCK! (And, as it turned out, the first year is a bummer.)

$21M x 3 Bassitt? Pretty good, so far at 3.49 in 8 GS

$18M x 4 T Walker? YUCK! 5.75 in 8 GS

$17M x 4 Taillon? YUCK!

$17M x 2 Nate Ding, ding, DING! 2.70 in 8 GS (Can ge go 28+ GS?)

$15M x 5 Senga? (Meh... 4.14 in 7GS)

$13.3M x 3 Eflin? (Might have taken much more to lure him from his home are in FL)

$13M x 3 TAnderson (YUCK! 5.26 in 7GS)

$12.5 to 13M x 2 JQuintana (0GS), RStripling (7.14 in 4 GS + 4 RP), SManaea (7.96 in 6 GS + 2 RP), AHeaney (4.71 in 8GS)

$6.5M x 4 Wacha Best for the money at 4.06 in 8 GS

 

At $27M, we could have brought back Nate and Wacha or Bassitt & Wacha, but most of these signings look like busts, so far.

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

We did offer more for Eflin. I think it was $11M x 2. Even that is rarely going to get you a solid #2 or #3.

 

Had we known Duran was going to morph from a butterfly to an eagle, we could have used Duvall's money ($7M) to add to Kluber's, but who saw that coming?

 

Had we Known Kike was going to suck, this badly, we could have used his money ($10M).

 

I think the Turner signing was needed, especially with what Casas was going to be in question and with the departure of JD.

 

I think the pen money was needed, and it was apparently spent pretty well, despite recent developments.

 

So, Kluber (10) + Duvall (7) + Kike (10) could have gotten us what? (Plus, who plays SS?)

 

$27M AAV was what Rodon got, but the added years... YUCK! (And, as it turned out, the first year is a bummer.)

$21M x 3 Bassitt? Pretty good, so far at 3.49 in 8 GS

$18M x 4 T Walker? YUCK! 5.75 in 8 GS

$17M x 4 Taillon? YUCK!

$17M x 2 Nate Ding, ding, DING! 2.70 in 8 GS (Can ge go 28+ GS?)

$15M x 5 Senga? (Meh... 4.14 in 7GS)

$13.3M x 3 Eflin? (Might have taken much more to lure him from his home are in FL)

$13M x 3 TAnderson (YUCK! 5.26 in 7GS)

$12.5 to 13M x 2 JQuintana (0GS), RStripling (7.14 in 4 GS + 4 RP), SManaea (7.96 in 6 GS + 2 RP), AHeaney (4.71 in 8GS)

$6.5M x 4 Wacha Best for the money at 4.06 in 8 GS

 

At $27M, we could have brought back Nate and Wacha or Bassitt & Wacha, but most of these signings look like busts, so far.

 

 

 

 

 

You do bring up a good point. Pay for mediocrity and mediocrity is what you get.

 

And this is where Bloom SHOULD SHINE but he hasn't.

 

Tampa Bay North Rays would have NEVER signed Kike for $10M. NEVER. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS. Quit treating $10M as a chump change. They all add up.

 

I will throw up if Cora brings him back. Spend the money elsewhere.

[notin]

Agreed.

 

All I was trying to say is that we might not have the 29th worst pitching staff.

 

I don't watch every pitch of every other team's games. I only watch the Sox.

 

Maybe we actually have the worst staff. I provided other numbers that seem to indicate while we are still bad, in comparison, maybe we are not as bad as 29th.

 

I know our D is worse than most teams.

 

I know our park is viewed as a hitter's park.

 

I'm pretty sure our opponents have better offenses than most team's pitchers have faced, but I'm not sure on that.

 

Saying we not not be 29th is not saying we don't still suck in that area. IMO, we have sucked, up to now, anyway.

 

But OTOH, being the 27th ranked staff over the 29th is a small consolation at best.

 

The bottom line is pitching - overstated or not - is a clear issue. It could absolutely get better with the addition of Paxton and the pending return of Crawford and Whitlock. But for how long? The Sox staff - even without Eovaldi - has a large subset of replaced tendons and sore-armed vets that any improvement could easily be temporary…

[notin]

You do bring up a good point. Pay for mediocrity and mediocrity is what you get.

 

And this is where Bloom SHOULD SHINE but he hasn't.

 

Tampa Bay North Rays would have NEVER signed Kike for $10M. NEVER. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS. Quit treating $10M as a chump change. They all add up.

 

Not so sure. The Rays did sign Manny Margot for 2 yrs / $19.5mill. He’s not exactly a superstar…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We did offer more for Eflin. I think it was $11M x 2. Even that is rarely going to get you a solid #2 or #3.

 

Had we known Duran was going to morph from a butterfly to an eagle, we could have used Duvall's money ($7M) to add to Kluber's, but who saw that coming?

 

Had we Known Kike was going to suck, this badly, we could have used his money ($10M).

 

I think the Turner signing was needed, especially with what Casas was going to be in question and with the departure of JD.

 

I think the pen money was needed, and it was apparently spent pretty well, despite recent developments.

 

So, Kluber (10) + Duvall (7) + Kike (10) could have gotten us what? (Plus, who plays SS?)

 

$27M AAV was what Rodon got, but the added years... YUCK! (And, as it turned out, the first year is a bummer.)

$21M x 3 Bassitt? Pretty good, so far at 3.49 in 8 GS

$18M x 4 T Walker? YUCK! 5.75 in 8 GS

$17M x 4 Taillon? YUCK!

$17M x 2 Nate Ding, ding, DING! 2.70 in 8 GS (Can ge go 28+ GS?)

$15M x 5 Senga? (Meh... 4.14 in 7GS)

$13.3M x 3 Eflin? (Might have taken much more to lure him from his home are in FL)

$13M x 3 TAnderson (YUCK! 5.26 in 7GS)

$12.5 to 13M x 2 JQuintana (0GS), RStripling (7.14 in 4 GS + 4 RP), SManaea (7.96 in 6 GS + 2 RP), AHeaney (4.71 in 8GS)

$6.5M x 4 Wacha Best for the money at 4.06 in 8 GS

 

At $27M, we could have brought back Nate and Wacha or Bassitt & Wacha, but most of these signings look like busts, so far.

 

 

 

 

 

Others have pointed this out, and some think it overrated, but Eovaldi and Wacha showed they could excel in Boston, and said they wanted to stay in Boston.

 

Of course, we don't know all the internal dynamics involved; for instance, Nate was candid he didn't like what was happening last trade deadline...

 

Btw -- we're still asking "Who plays SS?"

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think the Kike signing was a big deal.

 

It's the run prevention that's a big deal. The 2023 Red Sox have to score 6 runs, on average, to win a game.

[Old Red]

I don't think the Kike signing was a big deal.

 

It's the run prevention that's a big deal. The 2023 Red Sox have to score 6 runs, on average, to win a game.

 

Kike was resigned last year, but in hindsight using that $10M on an actual SS would have been a better move.

[moonslav59]

You do bring up a good point. Pay for mediocrity and mediocrity is what you get.

 

And this is where Bloom SHOULD SHINE but he hasn't.

 

Tampa Bay North Rays would have NEVER signed Kike for $10M. NEVER. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS. Quit treating $10M as a chump change. They all add up.

 

I will throw up if Cora brings him back. Spend the money elsewhere.

 

That's been one of my biggest beefs against Bloom. He has found a few "diamonds in the rough," but most of those have been off the waiver wire, Rule 5 or lower dollar signings.

 

The $10M Richards, $10M Kluber and the two Perez signings did not work well. Wacha and Hill were decent, but less than Kluber & Richards.

 

He had more than $10M to spend on a SP'er, this year but chose not to. I don't really blame him as I was not impressed by any of last winter's pitchers. (I was hoping for a big trade.)

[moonslav59]

But OTOH, being the 27th ranked staff over the 29th is a small consolation at best.

 

The bottom line is pitching - overstated or not - is a clear issue. It could absolutely get better with the addition of Paxton and the pending return of Crawford and Whitlock. But for how long? The Sox staff - even without Eovaldi - has a large subset of replaced tendons and sore-armed vets that any improvement could easily be temporary…

 

As bad as our pitching was, last season, it's hard to imagine our best move might have been to bring back Nate & Wacha for a re-run.

[mvp 78]

Just living in the moment to say that they really should have emptied the farm for Luis Castillo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As bad as our pitching was, last season, it's hard to imagine our best move might have been to bring back Nate & Wacha for a re-run.

 

To me, those were easy to imagine: two pitchers who succeeded in Boston and wanted to stay.

 

Just wondering: what would be easier to imagine? Not blowing $40+ million per on 40-year olds or dealing Mayer-Bleis-Bello-Casas for Alcantara?

[moonslav59]

Just living in the moment to say that they really should have emptied the farm for Luis Castillo.

 

I'd have hated to lose Mayer plus probably Casas or Rafaela (or both), but we need an ace and seem to do fine with the farm on everyday players.

 

Maybe Mayer, Rafaela, Mata and Walter could have gotten it done.

[Hugh2]

I remember suggestion giving a QO to both Nate and Wacha because of how thing our rotation was or at least pick one of the two who they were more comfortable with.

 

I did not feel that anyone else agreed with me, at least in the QO department, which for the record I was right on Nate and it net us a pick but the point is NOBODY wanted these guys 6 months ago, and the season is still young. There can be a huge regression to the mean with them. Both carry risk given their ages and injury history.

[moonslav59]

I remember suggestion giving a QO to both Nate and Wacha because of how thing our rotation was or at least pick one of the two who they were more comfortable with.

 

I did not feel that anyone else agreed with me, at least in the QO department, which for the record I was right on Nate and it net us a pick but the point is NOBODY wanted these guys 6 months ago, and the season is still young. There can be a huge regression to the mean with them. Both carry risk given their ages and injury history.

 

I was very high on Wacha, and suggested a possible QO offer, until I found out he was not going to get anywhere near that amount, due mainly to injury and durability concerns.

 

I was surprised he signed for so low.

 

$6.5M x 4 is just $6M over a QO for 1 year!

[mvp 78]

I'd have hated to lose Mayer plus probably Casas or Rafaela (or both), but we need an ace and seem to do fine with the farm on everyday players.

 

Maybe Mayer, Rafaela, Mata and Walter could have gotten it done.

 

Can't pitch in Fenway!

[moonslav59]

Can't pitch in Fenway!

 

LOL!

 

Your slippage is noticeable.

[Bellhorn04]

I remember suggestion giving a QO to both Nate and Wacha because of how thing our rotation was or at least pick one of the two who they were more comfortable with.

 

I did not feel that anyone else agreed with me, at least in the QO department, which for the record I was right on Nate and it net us a pick but the point is NOBODY wanted these guys 6 months ago, and the season is still young. There can be a huge regression to the mean with them. Both carry risk given their ages and injury history.

 

NOBODY wanted these guys? That's not true. I was very much in favor in re-signing Eovaldi. Me and 5 Gloves are probably the 2 biggest Nate fanboys here.

[Nick]

I rather watch Nate than Kluber.

[Old Red]

NOBODY wanted these guys? That's not true. I was very much in favor in re-signing Eovaldi. Me and 5 Gloves are probably the 2 biggest Nate fanboys here.

 

Like I keep saying the Red Sox took the cheaper way out with Kluber. I wanted to resign ERod, and last year it looked good they didn’t, but he’s turned it around so far this year. Either one are better than Kluber, or Pivetta, or Houck in the rotation for that matter.

[mvp 78]

NOBODY wanted these guys? That's not true. I was very much in favor in re-signing Eovaldi. Me and 5 Gloves are probably the 2 biggest Nate fanboys here.

 

This just isn't true.

 

I was the only poster who wanted the good FA's! You guys wanted the FA's that were bad and didn't work out!

[moonslav59]

I rather watch Nate than Kluber.

 

He did cost a lot more, but yes.