A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Eliminated teams

TB gave up 11 runs in 2 games #2 pitching staff in fWAR

MIA gave up 11 runs in 2 games #8 in fWAR

TOR gave up 5 runs in 2 games #5 in fWAR

MIL gave up 11 runs in 2 games #12 in fWAR

 

The winners' pitching stepped up and came through when it counted.

 

Poor defense was a big factor for the AL losers. The Rays played like crap, and the Jays will never win with Bichette at short.

 

I didn't realize the Rangers' D only committed 57 errors this season -- the broadcast said 18 in the second half (that's one less than Raffy made this year).

 

Maybe we're maybe lucky the Sox didn't pick up Montgomery or Civale at the deadline and eeked in; it spared the Nation exposure for having its worst D in at least this century.

[Hugh2]

I’m not sure adding just one big RHd bat will be enough, but pitching is such a big need and expensive, I can’t see how we can do it all without going way over the tax line and or making major trades.

 

I don't disagree at all, and unless Henry channels his inner Cohen (spoiler alert, he won't) we will have to expect this team to have to make choices. It seems like a much more reasonable bet to spend on upgrading the pitching. Internally, there's more hope in the offense growing from what you got than the pitching internally, although I think the Boston bullpen would become much stronger by moving some of our starters there by going out and getting SP1 and SP3 in the open market.

 

There's just not really any good RHB in this year's free agent class.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree at all, and unless Henry channels his inner Cohen (spoiler alert, he won't) we will have to expect this team to have to make choices. It seems like a much more reasonable bet to spend on upgrading the pitching. Internally, there's more hope in the offense growing from what you got than the pitching internally, although I think the Boston bullpen would become much stronger by moving some of our starters there by going out and getting SP1 and SP3 in the open market.

 

There's just not really any good RHB in this year's free agent class.

 

Good points. Normally, I'd say trade for a younger, top pitcher, as they cost too much in free agency, and are usually not "younger.' and sign FA batters, where needed, but this year is not good for big RH'd bats.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't disagree at all, and unless Henry channels his inner Cohen (spoiler alert, he won't) we will have to expect this team to have to make choices. It seems like a much more reasonable bet to spend on upgrading the pitching. Internally, there's more hope in the offense growing from what you got than the pitching internally, although I think the Boston bullpen would become much stronger by moving some of our starters there by going out and getting SP1 and SP3 in the open market.

 

There's just not really any good RHB in this year's free agent class.

 

There's Turner.

[sk7326]

Here's what does make sense: runs scored by the four eliminated losers in the eight wild card games -- Tuesday 0, 1, 3, 1... Wednesday 1, 0, 2, 1

 

Some posters believe that the Sox are only two pitchers away from contending... to qualify for the postseason, maybe... and then "anything can happen".

 

But those scores would argue that complete pitching staffs of solid starters and stingy relievers aren't quite as unpredictable (granted, they've yet to face the four best clubs -- record-wise).

 

Every team in the majors has had a 2-game losing streak this season. Compared to the NBA (for instance), there is no real way to create a team that is immune to that. I've seen 83 and 85 win world champions. There is clutch play, but a lot of it is just the goofiness of baseball that we love.

 

I mean Toronto allowed 5 runs in 2 games ... they did just about everything right, but the Twins pitchers were just a little better. There isn't much Toronto could do. The Brewers were the best pitching staff in baseball and they are going home.

[moonslav59]

There's Turner.

 

We already have 4-5 players on the 26, who are negatives on defense. At least 3 could be the FT DH, and others might platoon at DH and be a back-up elsewhere.

 

To me, we could use a big RHB at at 2B and OF, but only if we trade a LHB OF'er like Dugo or Duran. If we move Yoshida to DH, we could sign Duvall and not trade anyone, except maybe Refsnyder, despite him being our best hitter vs LHPs since 2022.

 

We need to thread a needle on our winter choices concerning a big RHB. I'm a huge Turner fan, but I can't see signing him, unless we can somehow trade Yoshida. (Not happening.)

Edited October 5, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

There's Turner.

 

He's not listed in the FA Tracker yet.

 

RHB with fWAR over 1.5:

Chapman

JD

Mitch Garver

Lourdes Gurriel

Duvall

Pham

Teoscar

Gary Sanchez

Michael Taylor

 

No clear big boppers.

[moonslav59]

He's not listed in the FA Tracker yet.

 

RHB with fWAR over 1.5:

Chapman

JD

Mitch Garver

Lourdes Gurriel

Duvall

Pham

Teoscar

Gary Sanchez

Michael Taylor

 

No clear big boppers.

 

Maybe we need to make a big trade for a RHB, and use all the money on SP'ers.

[mvp 78]

Maybe we need to make a big trade for a RHB, and use all the money on SP'ers.

 

Just fix the RF configuration at Fenway and make it a little easier for a LHB to hit one out?

[notin]

We already have 4-5 players on the 26, who are negatives on defense. At least 3 could be the FT DH, and others might platoon at DH and be a back-up elsewhere.

 

To me, we could use a big RHB at at 2B and OF, but only if we trade a LHB OF'er like Dugo or Duran. If we move Yoshida to DH, we could sign Duvall and not trade anyone, except maybe Refsnyder, despite him being our best hitter vs LHPs since 2022.

 

We need to thread a needle on our winter choices concerning a big RHB. I'm a huge Turner fan, but I can't see signing him, unless we can somehow trade Yoshida. (Not happening.)

 

So..

 

Alex Verdugo for Gleyber Torres?

[Bellhorn04]

He's not listed in the FA Tracker yet.

 

RHB with fWAR over 1.5:

Chapman

JD

Mitch Garver

Lourdes Gurriel

Duvall

Pham

Teoscar

Gary Sanchez

Michael Taylor

 

No clear big boppers.

 

JD...hmmm....134 OPS+, 33 HR, 103 RBI in 113 G...looks like Big Bopper level there...issues are age/durability.

[notin]

JD...hmmm....134 OPS+, 33 HR, 103 RBI in 113 G...looks like Big Bopper level there...issues are age/durability.

 

Also position.

 

Not to mention last time he was playing for Boston, he didn’t approach those numbers for some reason…

[Bellhorn04]

Also position.

 

Not to mention last time he was playing for Boston, he didn’t approach those numbers for some reason…

 

Because random something something...

[notin]

So..

 

Alex Verdugo for Gleyber Torres?

 

 

Obviously not happening.

 

Jonathan India is more likely. Not a bopper, but at least he’s a good hitter who also knows how to take a walk. And buried in the middle infield depth of the Reds…

[notin]

Because random something something...

 

 

Maybe we could put Martinez in LF, move Yoshida to RF, bring back Turner to DH. And at that point let’s just plug Duran in T second and not worry about it. Because outside of CF and SS, no one else kid going to be able to field a batted ball anyway.

 

We also need some pitching capable of 27 K/9

[mvp 78]

JD...hmmm....134 OPS+, 33 HR, 103 RBI in 113 G...looks like Big Bopper level there...issues are age/durability.

 

He wasn't here without his video guy.

[mvp 78]

Also position.

 

Not to mention last time he was playing for Boston, he didn’t approach those numbers for some reason…

 

Just Think, Who's A Tall Kid In No Shoes?

[mvp 78]

Obviously not happening.

 

Jonathan India is more likely. Not a bopper, but at least he’s a good hitter who also knows how to take a walk. And buried in the middle infield depth of the Reds…

 

Christian Arroyo OPS+ assed player.

[Dipre]

Obviously not happening.

 

Jonathan India is more likely. Not a bopper, but at least he’s a good hitter who also knows how to take a walk. And buried in the middle infield depth of the Reds…

 

India is bad, and you should feel bad.

[moonslav59]

Obviously not happening.

 

Jonathan India is more likely. Not a bopper, but at least he’s a good hitter who also knows how to take a walk. And buried in the middle infield depth of the Reds…

 

I should not have said power RHB. If we can get a high OBP RHB, that would be very helpful, too.

[moonslav59]

So..

 

Alex Verdugo for Gleyber Torres?

 

Not a bad type of trade. We could then trade Urias.

 

How about Urais & Dugo or Duran for Torres and Schmidt.

[notin]

India is bad, and you should feel bad.

 

Actually my biggest concern is the plantar fasciitis. I don’t think he’s a bad player. But I doubt whoever the Sox hire has him on the radar. The Luis Urias Status Quo is far more likely…

[notin]

Not a bad type of trade. We could then trade Urias.

 

How about Urais & Dugo or Duran for Torres and Schmidt.

 

BTV rejects it. Torres alone for Verdugo and Urias is a minor overpay. Schmidt is the most valuable player of the four on their site.

 

Verdugo and Drohan for Torres works…

[moonslav59]

BTV rejects it. Torres alone for Verdugo and Urias is a minor overpay. Schmidt is the most valuable player of the four on their site.

 

Verdugo and Drohan for Torres works…

 

It accepts:

Duran or Dugo

Yorke

Urias or Drohan

for

Torres and Schmidt

[moonslav59]

Some final OPS Against Numbers by our pitchers with certain catchers:

 

Only pitchers with less than a 4:1 ratio of PAs are listed:

Min 40 PAs against

 

Red= Greater than 70 Points

 

Better with Wong:

Bello .754>.803

Pivetta .610>.744

Bernardino .603>.942

 

Better with McGuire:

Crawford .447>.736

Whitlock .735>.858

Winckowski .649>.721

Martin .350>.622

Jansen .487>.758

Schreiber .655>.793