A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Betts, JD, Eavoldi, Wacha...I'm guessing the Sox would be challenging for the division title, not a game under.

 

I hear what you are saying but you need to get over Betts.

 

Otherwise, please let me know how Betts signing would have changed the course of FA acquisitions. You can't simple pick good parts. What would have happen to 2021 had we signed Betts as an example? would everyone else be on board with Betts money on the roster? I don't have the time to do the mental exercise.

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk. Just enlighten me with what you would have done each year in terms of signings/acquisitions.

 

What would you have done with David Price's massive payroll? You think the Dodgers would have picked up David Price without Betts?

Edited June 11, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

Betts, JD, Eavoldi, Wacha...I'm guessing the Sox would be challenging for the division title, not a game under.

 

 

So next year, if Kike is doing well, I assume he will be added to this list. Maybe Pivetta will be the next “one that got away”? Why oh why is Bloom ripping out the heart of the 2022 Red Sox team?

 

And this board should be rife with hindsight if Kluber gets another job and puts together two or three good starts in a row…

[Bellhorn04]

I hear what you are saying but you need to get over Betts.

 

Otherwise, please let me know how Betts signing would have changed the course of FA acquisitions. You can't simple pick good parts. What would have happen to 2021 had we signed Betts as an example? would everyone else be on board with Betts money on the roster? I don't have the time to do the mental exercise.

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk. Just enlighten me with what you would have done each year in terms of signings/acquisitions.

 

What would you have done with David Price's massive payroll? You think the Dodgers would have picked up David Price without Betts?

 

Unloading Price saved the Sox 30 million. (0 in 2020 because he opted out.) Plus some luxury tax.

 

Sure, that's a chunk of change, but in the big picture it's a pittance. It's certainly not a justification for losing Mookie Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

So next year, if Kike is doing well, I assume he will be added to this list. Maybe Pivetta will be the next “one that got away”? Why oh why is Bloom ripping out the heart of the 2022 Red Sox team?

 

And this board should be rife with hindsight if Kluber gets another job and puts together two or three good starts in a row…

 

Keep having fun with that argument, but as others have pointed out, it's not just losing guys like the ones Danny mentioned, it's the fact that there haven't been any replacements.

[notin]

I hear what you are saying but you need to get over Betts.

 

Otherwise, please let me know how Betts signing would have changed the course of FA acquisitions. You can't simple pick good parts. What would have happen to 2021 had we signed Betts as an example? would everyone else be on board with Betts money on the roster? I don't have the time to do the mental exercise.

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk. Just enlighten me with what you would have done each year in terms of signings/acquisitions.

 

What would you have done with David Price's massive payroll? You think the Dodgers would have picked up David Price without Betts?

 

The Betts thing has been done to death, but per the media before his trade and all during his negotiations, Betts was dead set on trying free agency. That he reportedly countered a $300mill offer with $400mill doesn’t make this so unbelievable. But that this negotiation was under Dombrowski - not exactly known for holding back money/years - and didn’t get done simply means to me it wasn’t getting done. And after 2019, Betts wasn’t coming down in his demands as he got closer to free agency. And Henry was going to let Bloom spend money he didn’t let Dombrowski spend.

 

So the only options were - trade Betts. Or hold him for one year and settle for draft compensation.

 

So I take it you prefer draft picks.

 

Of course signing Betts meant keeping Price, but it also probably meant not extending Bogaerts and Sale…

[Nick]

2019 Roster

 

Keep in mind that we were trying to repeat with a starting rotation of Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Pretty good rotation on paper.

 

If we had the Mets owner, we would have built on this whatever the cost.

 

$31.900M David Price (2019-2022)

$22.000M JD Martinez (2018-2022)

$20.625M Rick Porcello (2019)

$20.000M Mookie Betts (Arb 2, set to become FA in 2021)

$17.000M Nathan Eovaldi (2019-2022)

$18.455M Pablo Sandoval (2019 only, DFA's previously)

$13.750M Dustin Pedroia (2019-2021 DEAD $$$)

$15.000M Chris Sale (extension signed in April, $25.6M starting in 2020)

$12.000M Xander (final year)

$08.550M JBJ (arb 3 of 4)

$04.300M E Rod (arb 2 of 4)

$04.157M Vaz (2019-2021)

 

$11.711M Rusney Castillo ($14.271 in 2020 remaining)....OFF THE BOOKS, NOT ON THE 40MAN ROSTER

 

Obviously with short season in 2020, money part got sketchy. What could we have done differently?

 

Had we given say $350M to Betts over 10 years, what to do with Xander and others?

 

Moon, why don't you take a crack at it......obviously we all have the hindsight of what did transpire.

 

My guess is based on some overpays, JH was in no mood to give out a $400M contract that most of us would have done.

 

Xander would sign a 6 year, $120M contract in 2020. Devers not even on the radar.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Nick

[Old Red]

Keep having fun with that argument, but as others have pointed out, it's not just losing guys like the ones Danny mentioned, it's the fact that there haven't been any replacements.

 

He doesn’t get, and he never will.

[redsoxrules]

So next year, if Kike is doing well, I assume he will be added to this list. Maybe Pivetta will be the next “one that got away”? Why oh why is Bloom ripping out the heart of the 2022 Red Sox team?

 

And this board should be rife with hindsight if Kluber gets another job and puts together two or three good starts in a row…

 

You have to stop using this lame argument. We've all said many times, we're upset because they are being replace by junk not necessarily because the ones they let go are doing well. If Kluber was having a great year do you think we'd be all saying oh that's too bad we didn't keep Nate? f*** no, we'd be all stoked and couldn't care less how the other ones are doing.

[Bellhorn04]

Peter Abraham in the Globe today with the first article about who we should trade off at the deadline.

[Old Red]

So next year, if Kike is doing well, I assume he will be added to this list. Maybe Pivetta will be the next “one that got away”? Why oh why is Bloom ripping out the heart of the 2022 Red Sox team?

 

And this board should be rife with hindsight if Kluber gets another job and puts together two or three good starts in a row…

 

It all Depends on who they were replaced with, which has been this whole argument right along.

[Nick]

Unloading Price saved the Sox 30 million. (0 in 2020 because he opted out.) Plus some luxury tax.

 

Sure, that's a chunk of change, but in the big picture it's a pittance. It's certainly not a justification for losing Mookie Betts.

 

Congrats.... so you knew the COVID would hit and Price would opt out? Now you're making some arguments based on facts not known in 2019.

 

You and I agree on almost everything.

 

But please give me the best case scenario after 2019.

[Old Red]

You have to stop using this lame argument. We've all said many times, we're upset because they are being replace by junk not necessarily because the ones they let go are doing well. If Kluber was having a great year do you think we'd be all saying oh that's too bad we didn't keep Nate? f*** no, we'd be all stoked and couldn't care less how the other ones are doing.

It’s as plain, and simple as you stated that most have comprehended.

[Nick]

To me 2020 season never happened.

 

Congrats to Dodgers for winning the most meaningless world series title in the history of major league baseball.

 

Like it or not, I do think the Sox management thought we had a good team when the season started in 2019.

 

We survived 2021 without Betts so I'm not sure not signing Betts was the biggest issue facing the Sox.

 

So the real problem is 2022 and its aftermath. Bloom was horrendous.

 

He has to correct it this winter. Last place finishes two years in a row requires change in approach.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

If money is not an issue and trading away any and all prospects are doable, who do we get to make us an immediate contender next year?

 

We don't have enough to win it all this year so at this point we should be 'sellers' at trading deadline.

 

How do we make the Sox a World Series contender next year?

 

My first thought is to package Paxton, Verdugo and Pivetta to Texas for whatever young talent they have.....

 

Sign the young Japanese starting pitcher.

 

Sign Soto the following year. Can the Padres sign another $300M player?

Edited June 11, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

To me 2020 season never happened.

 

Congrats to Dodgers for winning the most meaningless world series title in the history of major league baseball.

 

Like it or not, I do think the Sox management thought we had a good team when the season started in 2019.

 

We survived 2021 without Betts so I'm not sure not signing Betts was the biggest issue facing the Sox.

 

So the real problem is 2022 and its aftermath. Bloom was horrendous.

 

He has to correct it this winter. Last place finishes two years in a row requires change in approach.

 

But Bloom has done such an underwhelming job 2 offseasons in a row, how can we have any faith in him doing a good job next time around?

[Old Red]

To me 2020 season never happened.

 

Congrats to Dodgers for winning the most meaningless world series title in the history of major league baseball.

 

Like it or not, I do think the Sox management thought we had a good team when the season started in 2019.

 

We survived 2021 without Betts so I'm not sure not signing Betts was the biggest issue facing the Sox.

 

So the real problem is 2022 and its aftermath. Bloom was horrendous.

 

He has to correct it this winter. Last place finishes two years in a row requires change in approach.

The 2020 title may be tainted, but the Red Sox, and Red Sox fans would have been glad to have taken it. Another losing last place finish this year, and to me Bloom Should Not be around anymore to change anything.

[Nick]

But Bloom has done such an underwhelming job 2 offseasons in a row, how can we have any faith in him doing a good job next time around?

 

You have a point.....I'm not married to him as the head of baseball operations as before. We're currently separated.

[Nick]

Untouchable: RHP Brayan Bello, 3B Rafael Devers, LF Masataka Yoshida.

 

I'm wondering if we can do better at $18M/5years. If we have a taker and gives us something in value, losing $18M commit doesn't sound all that bad to me.

[dgalehouse]

It is getting harder and harder to justify any defense of Bloom. How much last place baseball can you abide?

[Old Red]

It is getting harder and harder to justify any defense of Bloom. How much last place baseball can you abide?

 

4 years of Bloom has been 4 years to many as it is.

[moonslav59]

First Whitlock then Tanner.

 

They both pitched well. 6 and 4 years of team control.

 

Isn't this how you build a staff?

 

Up next is Bello.

 

Certainly more hopeful than two to four years ago, but who am I to talk. I'm living in the past.

[moonslav59]

Good point, moon. Bogaerts was in a nasty slump for a while there, owing partly to a sore wrist, apparently.

 

But let's take a look at some hard cold metrics:

 

Xander Bogaerts fWAR 1.8 bWAR 1.7 FUBAR 1.75

Kike Hernandez fWAR -0.4 bWAR -0.3 FUBAR -0.35

 

Yes, I think that qualifies as making the team worse.

 

Not really.

 

If we had Bogey, we would not have Yoshida, Turner, Duvall and more.

 

I do find it very predictable that all the talk is about JD, who nobody was clamouring for and Nate, who a few were clamoring for vs the constant Bogey drum beat from the day he signed with LAD up to his slump.

[moonslav59]

Dur You even called Mookie a bum of a leadoff hitter. Well that bum of a leadoff hitter has 17 HR, and 41 RBI.Wow!

 

I took you off ignore for a second, and sure enough- WOW! What a freakin lie.

 

Nothing changes.

[moonslav59]

Betts, JD, Eavoldi, Wacha...I'm guessing the Sox would be challenging for the division title, not a game under.

 

Only if the budget changes to allow us to sign some complimentary pieces, along the way.

 

Why no mention of Bogey?

[moonslav59]

All he had to do was sign Jose Iglesias, who has been able to do no better than a minor league deal with the San Diego Shortstops.

 

Another head scratcher. Despite Iggy's decline on D at SS, he's still light years better than Kike on D.

[Old Red]

I took you off ignore for a second, and sure enough- WOW! What a freakin lie.

 

Nothing changes.

 

Don’t take me off ignore, but even when I’m there you still comment on my post. That is not a lie about Mookie, and that was on a game thread. As Charles Barkley would say GUARANTEED!

[moonslav59]

Unloading Price saved the Sox 30 million. (0 in 2020 because he opted out.) Plus some luxury tax.

 

Sure, that's a chunk of change, but in the big picture it's a pittance. It's certainly not a justification for losing Mookie Betts.

 

They couldn't afford to pay all of Price's deal and more than their initial offer made to Betts, apparently.

 

That was a massive chunk of change they unloaded, when combining salaries, and the final push off the steep embankment, if you catch my drift.

[Bellhorn04]

Not really.

 

If we had Bogey, we would not have Yoshida, Turner, Duvall and more.

 

Your math is off a little...well, actually a lot.

 

Bogey's AAV is 25.455 mill.

 

Yoshida and Turner combined are more than that.

[notin]

But Bloom has done such an underwhelming job 2 offseasons in a row, how can we have any faith in him doing a good job next time around?

 

I’d call it incomplete. And I think his goals and our expectations don’t align as closely as we would like.

 

For example, many of us (myself included) have wondered why there’s been almost no focus on MiLB pitching. Not in trades. Not in the draft. It’s like he’s grabbed the occasional token arm but not much else. Whitlock, Winckowski, and ?

 

Well now in 2023, we’ve seen the minor league put three starters in the rotation with varying degrees of success. But it’s getting more apparent how completely devoid of hitting talent this minor league system was. If you look at the 4 drafts run by the Dombrowski regime - and at 4-7 years ago the book on them is almost closed - to net produced almost nothing in the way of MLB-caliber position players. Granted, the jury is still out on some 2019 draft picks. But the first 3 drafts to date have only produced 4 hitters with as much as one professional plate appearance. Casas is still young and shows promise. Duran flirts with looking like an MLB player. Dalbec is the only other one to ever suit up for Boston (and God willing never will again). And the only other one is the departed Sergio Espinal, the lone All Star of these drafts (to date).

 

To me that does lend some credence as to why position players dominate early in his drafts and dominate his trades.

 

Granted, it does very little for the current team…

[notin]

Your math is off a little...well, actually a lot.

 

Bogey's AAV is 25.455 mill.

 

Yoshida and Turner combined are more than that.

 

AAV is only one way to value a contract. The folks paying the bills might also care about the overall commitment. And if they do, Yoshida, Turner and Duvall will receive much less money than Bogaerts has coming to him.