A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Bloom offered Nate a larger contract than what he signed for in TEX.

 

Nate was born not far from me: Alvin, TX. He went to school in Alvin, too.

[mvp 78]

Nate was born not far from me: Alvin, TX. He went to school in Alvin, too.

 

That's not the reason he signed with the Rangers.

[Dipre]

Bloom offered Nate a larger contract than what he signed for in TEX.

 

Other teams also offered higher-value multi-year deals. But Eovaldi's a Houston native, dude wanted to go pitch for one of his hometown teams.

[moonslav59]

That's not the reason he signed with the Rangers.

 

Maybe not the number one reason, but he did mention it as a reason... SI article:

 

Signing with the Texas Rangers and getting a little closer to home in the process has been a bit of a theme the past two offseasons.

 

Newly-signed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is the latest to use that as incentive to sign with the Rangers.

 

“I mean, it's everything,” Eovaldi said. “I think one of the biggest things is family...

 

I know everybody always loved it when we'd go down there and play the Astros because there's an opportunity for them to come out and watch me play,” Eovaldi said. “Even if I wasn't playing, they would come out there to just watch the game and support us, so it's going to be a lot better I think this year having them so close.”

[Dipre]

That's not the reason he signed with the Rangers.

 

Should be one of them. Also, tax purposes.

[notin]

That's bull. There are a few posters obsessed with payroll burdens at the back end of contracts, and other posters who don't care that every pitcher breaks down eventually, and would rather see investments in guys that are good bets at the front end.

 

There are even some that argued through the entire tenure of his Red Sox contract that Eovaldi was overpaid, even though he led all Boston starters in innings pitched and lowest ERA from 2019-22.

 

I'm not arguing guys like Eovaldi and Wacha have improved as pitchers after leaving Boston. Maybe new ballparks, new defenses behind them, and new opponents with weaker bats have something to do with their success. But they don't suck, either.

 

 

It’s not exactly accurate to link Eovaldi in with pitchers who “eventually break down.” He’s had TJ twice and pitched more than 125 IP exactly one time since 2016. He only pitched 109 IP last year. And he’s only 33. Durability has been a concern for him for over a decade now. The Sox signed him for 4 seasons, and he only pitched two of them injury-free, and that’s counting an abbreviated 2020 as a full season. Even the spend-happy Rangers only went two years on him.

 

As for Wacha, he was good last year when available, but he isn’t 2013-15 Wacha anymore and hasn’t been for a long time. He could easily be Kluber next year, and has the option (his choice) to extend that for 3 more years. We don’t like having Kluber for one season but Wacha has a good month and he’s preferable for four years?

 

And I do think the back end is important. The Sox dragged $31mill worth of David Price around for several years and, because he made $31mill, had less money for other potential improvements or retentions. I can’t for certain day not signing Price meant keeping Mookie. But it is possible that flop of a contract put some caution into the minds of ownership when negotiating with him.

 

And where was all that Sale praise from 2020-2022? He was pulling down some $87mill for 40 IP. While he’s bouncing back now, he did spend those years as nothing but an albatross that might have shaped this roster differently. Heck, imagine if Sale and Bogaerts simply switched contracts (you no, so X had a $29mill AAV and no opt out). Would that have a positive or negative effect on this roster today?

[Dipre]

It’s not exactly accurate to link Eovaldi in with pitchers who “eventually break down.” He’s had TJ twice and pitched more than 125 IP exactly one time since 2016. He only pitched 109 IP last year. And he’s only 33. Durability has been a concern for him for over a decade now. The Sox signed him for 4 seasons, and he only pitched two of them injury-free, and that’s counting an abbreviated 2020 as a full season. Even the spend-happy Rangers only went two years on him.

 

As for Wacha, he was good last year when available, but he isn’t 2013-15 Wacha anymore and hasn’t been for a long time. He could easily be Kluber next year, and has the option (his choice) to extend that for 3 more years. We don’t like having Kluber for one season but Wacha has a good month and he’s preferable for four years?

 

And I do think the back end is important. The Sox dragged $31mill worth of David Price around for several years and, because he made $31mill, had less money for other potential improvements or retentions. I can’t for certain day not signing Price meant keeping Mookie. But it is possible that flop of a contract put some caution into the minds of ownership when negotiating with him.

 

And where was all that Sale praise from 2020-2022? He was pulling down some $87mill for 40 IP. While he’s bouncing back now, he did spend those years as nothing but an albatross that might have shaped this roster differently. Heck, imagine if Sale and Bogaerts simply switched contracts (you no, so X had a $29mill AAV and no opt out). Would that have a positive or negative effect on this roster today?

 

Good post. Great, even.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe not the number one reason, but he did mention it as a reason... SI article:

 

Signing with the Texas Rangers and getting a little closer to home in the process has been a bit of a theme the past two offseasons.

 

Newly-signed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is the latest to use that as incentive to sign with the Rangers.

 

“I mean, it's everything,” Eovaldi said. “I think one of the biggest things is family...

 

I know everybody always loved it when we'd go down there and play the Astros because there's an opportunity for them to come out and watch me play,” Eovaldi said. “Even if I wasn't playing, they would come out there to just watch the game and support us, so it's going to be a lot better I think this year having them so close.”

 

I've lived in Texas, but briefly, and am not a fan. Too big. But Texans can be awfully loyal to Texas, even with all those big cities that keep growing bigger. So I think you are right about Eovaldi--and good for him.

[Maxbialystock]

Good post. Great, even.

 

Agree. DD is praised almost endlessly on talksox because he delivered the 2018 Sox, probably the best Sox team ever. But, as notin has made clear, the cost was not just considerable, it was franchise-changing.

 

You gotta give credit to the MLBPA, which I think was the first truly successful professional athletes union. These days good players can expect everything to be guaranteed, even when the amount is insane. ARod started it with $250M guaranteed--when he was a youngster.

 

My own (no doubt prejudiced) view is that the media love those big contracts and write about them endlessly and almost always in a positive vein. To them the LA Dodgers got a complete bargain with the Mookie Betts contract. Now they are hoping Ohtani will sign for half a billion dollars.

[moonslav59]

It’s not exactly accurate to link Eovaldi in with pitchers who “eventually break down.” He’s had TJ twice and pitched more than 125 IP exactly one time since 2016. He only pitched 109 IP last year. And he’s only 33. Durability has been a concern for him for over a decade now. The Sox signed him for 4 seasons, and he only pitched two of them injury-free, and that’s counting an abbreviated 2020 as a full season. Even the spend-happy Rangers only went two years on him.

 

As for Wacha, he was good last year when available, but he isn’t 2013-15 Wacha anymore and hasn’t been for a long time. He could easily be Kluber next year, and has the option (his choice) to extend that for 3 more years. We don’t like having Kluber for one season but Wacha has a good month and he’s preferable for four years?

 

And I do think the back end is important. The Sox dragged $31mill worth of David Price around for several years and, because he made $31mill, had less money for other potential improvements or retentions. I can’t for certain day not signing Price meant keeping Mookie. But it is possible that flop of a contract put some caution into the minds of ownership when negotiating with him.

 

And where was all that Sale praise from 2020-2022? He was pulling down some $87mill for 40 IP. While he’s bouncing back now, he did spend those years as nothing but an albatross that might have shaped this roster differently. Heck, imagine if Sale and Bogaerts simply switched contracts (you no, so X had a $29mill AAV and no opt out). Would that have a positive or negative effect on this roster today?

 

I wouldn't count 2020, and not just because it was a short season.

 

He only started 9 of the possible 12 starts. That's 25% of the season lost.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't recall any posters that defended the Price signing, and I wasn't on board when Sale was extended. Those contracts are and will always be extremes in Boston about the risks of overpaying for damaged goods (physically and mentally).

 

But Eovaldi wasn't ever getting the biggest contract in the history of pitchers, and was good enough and stable enough to get re-signed for two years at market rate. And no one will be surprised the next time he goes on the IL. Meanwhile, he's pretty good.

 

Bloom doesn't sign starting pitchers for more than a year, though... so be prepared next winter to replace Kluber with the next Kluber. It's what we do these days in Boston.

[mvp 78]

Maybe not the number one reason, but he did mention it as a reason... SI article:

 

Signing with the Texas Rangers and getting a little closer to home in the process has been a bit of a theme the past two offseasons.

 

Newly-signed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is the latest to use that as incentive to sign with the Rangers.

 

“I mean, it's everything,” Eovaldi said. “I think one of the biggest things is family...

 

I know everybody always loved it when we'd go down there and play the Astros because there's an opportunity for them to come out and watch me play,” Eovaldi said. “Even if I wasn't playing, they would come out there to just watch the game and support us, so it's going to be a lot better I think this year having them so close.”

 

Here's the timeline for some of you dummies:

 

Sox offer him a big contract.

Nate says no.

Nate looks elsewhere for a long while.

Sox sign a bunch of other free agents.

Nate gets the smaller Texas offer.

Nate goes back to the Sox and says "can I get your original offer?"

Sox say no.

Nate signs with the Rangers.

The Aristocrats.

[mvp 78]

I don't recall any posters that defended the Price signing, and I wasn't on board when Sale was extended. Those contracts are and will always be extremes in Boston about the risks of overpaying for damaged goods (physically and mentally).

 

But Eovaldi wasn't ever getting the biggest contract in the history of pitchers, and was good enough and stable enough to get re-signed for two years at market rate. And no one will be surprised the next time he goes on the IL. Meanwhile, he's pretty good.

 

Bloom doesn't sign starting pitchers for more than a year, though... so be prepared next winter to replace Kluber with the next Kluber. It's what we do these days in Boston.

 

The Price contract was iffy. The Sale contract was right out as he was clearly injured at the time.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree. DD is praised almost endlessly on talksox because he delivered the 2018 Sox, probably the best Sox team ever. But, as notin has made clear, the cost was not just considerable, it was franchise-changing.

 

Franchise-changing?

 

Jeez, nothing like a little melodramatic exaggeration.

 

Next thing you know, DD will have put Henry in the welfare line.

 

[Bellhorn04]

The Price contract was iffy. The Sale contract was right out as he was clearly injured at the time.

 

No, he wasn't. He recorded the final 3 outs of the 2018 WS, as you might remember, and he threw 147 innings in 2019. You really can't do that if you're clearly injured.

 

"A clear threat to need TJ surgery" would be a more reasonable way to put it.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the timeline for some of you dummies:

 

Sox offer him a big contract.

Nate says no.

Nate looks elsewhere for a long while.

Sox sign a bunch of other free agents.

Nate gets the smaller Texas offer.

Nate goes back to the Sox and says "can I get your original offer?"

Sox say no.

Nate signs with the Rangers.

The Aristocrats.

 

Meanwhile, Bloom masterfully waited out the signing frenzy before making the awesome stealth signing of Kluber.

[Hugh2]

Bloom offered Nate a larger contract than what he signed for in TEX.

 

It was obvious the Sox wanted to keep Nate, but they obviously had a price they thought he was worth and it wasn't enough to entice him to stay and go elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

I don't recall any posters that defended the Price signing, and I wasn't on board when Sale was extended. Those contracts are and will always be extremes in Boston about the risks of overpaying for damaged goods (physically and mentally).

 

But Eovaldi wasn't ever getting the biggest contract in the history of pitchers, and was good enough and stable enough to get re-signed for two years at market rate. And no one will be surprised the next time he goes on the IL. Meanwhile, he's pretty good.

 

Bloom doesn't sign starting pitchers for more than a year, though... so be prepared next winter to replace Kluber with the next Kluber. It's what we do these days in Boston.

 

I knew the Price deal was a gross overpay, but we needed an ace. badly, and he seemed to be a once or twice (Scherzer) in a decade kind of available pitcher, so I was okay with it.

 

I liked the Sale signing and argued he was worth the money, even if he missed one full season due to injury. Obviously, he has missed more.

 

Taking chances on aces is something I can stomach.

[moonslav59]

Here's the timeline for some of you dummies:

 

Sox offer him a big contract.

Nate says no.

Nate looks elsewhere for a long while.

Sox sign a bunch of other free agents.

Nate gets the smaller Texas offer.

Nate goes back to the Sox and says "can I get your original offer?"

Sox say no.

Nate signs with the Rangers.

The Aristocrats.

 

It might have had something to do with the player option year 3:

 

2025:$20M player option if Eovaldi 1) pitches 300 innings combined in 2023-24 or 2) finishes in the top 5 of the 2024 Cy Young vote or 3) finishes in top 7 of 2024 Cy Young vote and makes 2024 All Star team

 

All of what you said does not mean playing closer to home did not matter at all.

 

I guess he was lying, when he said "It means everything." Who wants liars on their team, anyway? LOL!

[mvp 78]

No, he wasn't. He recorded the final 3 outs of the 2018 WS, as you might remember, and he threw 147 innings in 2019. You really can't do that if you're clearly injured.

 

"A clear threat to need TJ surgery" would be a more reasonable way to put it.

 

His ERA went to what in 2019? Was it a good season? Any noticeable velo drop in 2019?

 

How many starts did he miss in Aug/Sept of 2018 and what were the innings he was throwing in the starts he made?

[moonslav59]

Meanwhile, Bloom masterfully waited out the signing frenzy before making the awesome stealth signing of Kluber.

 

He made attempts at Nate and Eflin and maybe more we never heard about.

[mvp 78]

It might have had something to do with the player option year 3:

 

2025:$20M player option if Eovaldi 1) pitches 300 innings combined in 2023-24 or 2) finishes in the top 5 of the 2024 Cy Young vote or 3) finishes in top 7 of 2024 Cy Young vote and makes 2024 All Star team

 

All of what you said does not mean playing closer to home did not matter at all.

 

I guess he was lying, when he said "It means everything." Who wants liars on their team, anyway? LOL!

 

Texas was the ONLY option he had. There were no other available offers. Sox pulled there offer off the table a long time before.

[mvp 78]

It was obvious the Sox wanted to keep Nate, but they obviously had a price they thought he was worth and it wasn't enough to entice him to stay and go elsewhere.

 

Sox offered him more, but pulled their higher offer after he looked elsewhere and took too long. Sox had to fill out their roster too and didn't want to wait around. They could have just gone over the CBT and given Nate the original offer.

[Bellhorn04]

His ERA went to what in 2019? Was it a good season? Any noticeable velo drop in 2019?

 

How many starts did he miss in Aug/Sept of 2018 and what were the innings he was throwing in the starts he made?

 

Still doesn't get to clearly injured status.

[Bellhorn04]

He made attempts at Nate and Eflin and maybe more we never heard about.

 

Attempts and a quarter get you a gumball.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I knew the Price deal was a gross overpay, but we needed an ace. badly, and he seemed to be a once or twice (Scherzer) in a decade kind of available pitcher, so I was okay with it.

 

I liked the Sale signing and argued he was worth the money, even if he missed one full season due to injury. Obviously, he has missed more.

 

Taking chances on aces is something I can stomach.

 

We have yet to know if Bloom can...

 

We know the Sox can afford one...

 

But we don't even know if we can identify one...

 

Is Ohtani a good investment -- a guy whose pitching career could end suddenly in a number of ways that a non-batter/baserunner can't?

 

Is Urias a good investment -- about to enter his prime?

 

Is someone on the trading block worth four of our top prospects?

[Bellhorn04]

Sox offered him more, but pulled their higher offer after he looked elsewhere and took too long. Sox had to fill out their roster too and didn't want to wait around. They could have just gone over the CBT and given Nate the original offer.

 

The bottom line is Bloom ended up adding only the 88 MPH MAN Kluber to the rotation. As you have suggested yourself, this kind of penny-pinching is frustrating behavior for a rich franchise with demanding and currently disgruntled fans.

[sk7326]

It was obvious the Sox wanted to keep Nate, but they obviously had a price they thought he was worth and it wasn't enough to entice him to stay and go elsewhere.

 

The shame with Eovaldi is that he has lived up to what we know of him. When he is healthy - he has been one of the league's better starting pitchers. But of course, we can see the complicating factor there.

[Dipre]

We have yet to know if Bloom can...

 

We know the Sox can afford one...

 

But we don't even know if we can identify one...

 

Is Ohtani a good investment -- a guy whose pitching career could end suddenly in a number of ways that a non-batter/baserunner can't?

 

Is Urias a good investment -- about to enter his prime?

 

Is someone on the trading block worth four of our top prospects?

 

Ohtani and Urias look like busts in the making to me. The first one because he won't justify the massive contract, specially when he ends up missing 1-2 seasons with the pitcher rite of passing (TJS). The second one because he's going to get way more money than his ability dictates, but that's just my opinion.

[Dipre]

The bottom line is Bloom ended up adding only the 88 MPH MAN Kluber to the rotation. As you have suggested yourself, this kind of penny-pinching is frustrating behavior for a rich franchise with demanding and currently disgruntled fans.

 

They did extend Devers and sign Jansen, so they have that going for them, which is great!