A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Hugh2]

Because they believe people who are interested in analytics are robot, have nver played the game, cannot enjoy it like real people can and "just don't get it," because our heads are full to the brim with swirling numbers and metrics.

 

The Irony is, everyone uses analytics. Baseball is a game where every little thing is measured and recorded. Everything is a stat, EVERYTHING.

 

Those people are just uncomfortable with anything that they couldn't read off of a baseball card growing up. At bats, Hits, Average, Doubles, Home Runs, RBIS, SB's. etc.

[notin]

"Every single person"? Could you give at least one example, since you claim this applies to all of us?

 

Are you on the list of people who say anyone who looks at analytics doesn’t understand the human element of the game?

 

If you need an example, kindly scroll on over to post 3274 on this thread…

[Hugh2]

Are you on the list of people who say anyone who looks at analytics doesn’t understand the human element of the game?

 

If you need an example, kindly scroll on over to post 3274 on this thread…

 

To be fair, I'm not any better. I make unrealistic assumptions about people who say that as well. I just assume they're stupid and don't understand statistics or they're just really old and don't like change. My opinion may be biased as someone who studied finance in academia and extensively studied and used statistics. And I'm fairly certain, when using my rational brain, that these people are in fact not stupid and not always unaccepting of change. We all have our biases, I'm trying to fight mine.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, I'm not any better. I make unrealistic assumptions about people who say that as well. I just assume they're stupid and don't understand statistics or they're just really old and don't like change. My opinion may be biased as someone who studied finance in academia and extensively studied and used statistics. And I'm fairly certain, when using my rational brain, that these people are in fact not stupid and not always unaccepting of change. We all have our biases, I'm trying to fight mine.

 

Well said.

 

One can understand analytics and statistics and the human element. It doesn't have to be so black and white.

[notin]

Well said.

 

One can understand analytics and statistics and the human element. It doesn't have to be so black and white.

 

Exactly.

 

In don’t even see how every player necessarily defines a high pressure situation the same. An at-bat one player might feel the pressure in might be mundane to another. The fact that the Yips exist supports the argument that some players feel more pressure in the routine, simple plays.

 

But I will never believe it’s more difficult to face Whitfield-Jansen-Kiermeier in the ninth inning than it is to face Springer-Bichette-Guerrero Jr in the seventh…

Edited May 15, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

In don’t even see how every player necessarily defines a high pressure situation the same. An at-bat one player might feel the pressure in might be mundane to another. The fact that the Yips exist supports the argument that some players feel more pressure in the routine, simple plays.

 

But I will never believe it’s more difficult to face Whitfield-Jansen-Kiermeier in the ninth inning than it is to face Springer-Bichette-Guerrero Jr in the seventh…

 

I agree, but I can also understand how some players are creatures of habit and new situations might distract them.

 

I also believe there is something "added" about getting the last out or last 3 outs vs 3 outs in the 7th. I can understand why some believe that added pressure can affect some pitchers and batters more than others.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Every single person"? Could you give at least one example, since you claim this applies to all of us?

 

He just meant bachelors... but probably not bachelorettes.

[notin]

I agree, but I can also understand how some players are creatures of habit and new situations might distract them.

 

I also believe there is something "added" about getting the last out or last 3 outs vs 3 outs in the 7th. I can understand why some believe that added pressure can affect some pitchers and batters more than others.

 

 

But even then, it really comes down to the individual pitcher.

 

If you want to argue it’s tougher to get Whitfield-Jansen-Kiermeier in the ninth than to retire those same 3 hitters in the seventh, that’s one thing. But even then, I’m sure MLB is loaded with pitchers who think they have the upper hand in that situation and the pressure is on the hitters to defeat them…

[moonslav59]

But even then, it really comes down to the individual pitcher.

 

If you want to argue it’s tougher to get Whitfield-Jansen-Kiermeier in the ninth than to retire those same 3 hitters in the seventh, that’s one thing. But even then, I’m sure MLB is loaded with pitchers who think they have the upper hand in that situation and the pressure is on the hitters to defeat them…

 

I agree with you on this. I'm just saying I understand the other view and do think some individual pitchers might do better in the 9th vs tougher hitters than the 7th vs weaker ones. Maybe very few.

[notin]

He just meant bachelors... but probably not bachelorettes.

 

I was also counting divorcées….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was also counting divorcées….

 

Alright, but no rebounds; wrong sport...

[Bellhorn04]

Are you on the list of people who say anyone who looks at analytics doesn’t understand the human element of the game?

 

If you need an example, kindly scroll on over to post 3274 on this thread…

 

"Some folks get so into analytics that they forget the psychology involved in sports."

 

Pretty mild, really.

[notin]

"Some folks get so into analytics that they forget the psychology involved in sports."

 

Pretty mild, really.

 

Post 3265, if you like.

 

Or I can wait for another of those “players need to know their roles” posts…

[Bellhorn04]

Post 3265, if you like.

 

Or I can wait for another of those “players need to know their roles” posts…

 

Post 3265 was just Denny's "closin' ain't easy" thing.

[notin]

Post 3265 was just Denny's "closin' ain't easy" thing.

 

It was also a sweeping generalization about who feels pressure, right down to the peanut vendors…

[dgalehouse]

Post 3265 was just Denny's "closin' ain't easy" thing.

 

I was just responding to Maxie's post that Kenley had the easiest job of anybody and he blew it . I disagree with that statement. Not trying to start a big ruckus over it.

[dgalehouse]

It was also a sweeping generalization about who feels pressure, right down to the peanut vendors…

 

Have a nice day. And how about a little love for the peanut vendor.

[notin]

Have a nice day. And how about a little love for the peanut vendor.

 

I hate that allergen-spreading commerce whore…

[Maxbialystock]

As Kevin Costner's character says in For Love of the Game (a movie based on the novel by Michael Shaara, the same guy who wrote the terrific Killer Angels), "we count everything in baseball." Stats are unavoidable if you are a serious fan--or even just semi-serious. Forget the score in a game and just consider the ball-strike count on a given batter--it's huge.

 

With the arrival of computers and reams and reams of data and software, a good case can be made that managers are more influenced by stats than by what they see on the field of play. Thus the--I think--Dodgers manager who said that he decided to pull his starter after 6 innings no matter what--and did exactly that in a playoff or World Series game. The pitcher was fantastic for 6 innings, but out he came, and the bullpen promptly blew the game. To this day the manager still believes he made the right decision.

 

Despite the above, baseball remains incredibly unpredictable.

 

Try this stat on for size. A team with a .600 record will win 97 games, which is not only good enough to guarantee being in the playoffs, but is a good bet to win a Division in the regular season. A team with a .400 record is dog doodoo, the dregs of society, losers-loser-losers. They will win just 65 games and trail that 97 game winning team by 32 games.

 

That said, however, .400 means a team wins 2 out of 5 games and .600 means a team wins 3 out of 5 games. Not that much of a difference. The simple fact is that a MLB season is incredibly long at 162 games and therefore masks the reality that .600 teams aren't hugely better than .400 teams.

 

In addition is the central aspect of any game, the confrontation between batter and pitcher. What could possibly be more unpredictable? Ted Williams rightly said nothing is harder to hit than a round ball with a round bat squarely, but I would argue a pitcher's job is just as daunting. First and foremost, just throwing the ball hard enough to be in MLB is tough. On top of that you need a variety of spins/pitches and greater accuracy than a knife thrower in a side show.

 

To add to the fun/unpredictability of MLB is a hit ball which can be an easy out when hit really hard or a double when not hit well at all but hit in just the right place. I believe getting rid of those computer-generated shifts was absolutely in accord with the appeal of baseball, especially MLB.

 

Consider this Sox season to date: lose 4 straight in April to the Rays at the Trop and look just awful: win 8 straight to get back in the hunt for a wild card; and now lost 3 straight at Fenway to the losers Cardinals (who, as splendidsplinter said, are better than their record).

 

I think the Sox at 22-19 and dead last in the AL East are semi-miraculous given the rotation, bullpen, defense, and no-name lineup they have. A month ago the rotation was the wrong kind of oderiferous, and last night we were furious at Kluber for giving up 4 runs in 5 innings because in the 3 previous games he looks almost decent. Sale started badly, but now looks like the Sale of 2018. Bello looks like he will stick in this year's rotation--ditto Houck. Paxton must have gone to Lourdes in the offseason because his first start in half a decade or so was terrific. And Pivetta, who truly has struggled, just might drop out of the rotation.

 

Meanwhile, the bullpen which, anchored by the indomitable Jansen, has been so terrific now looks like Freddy Kruger. Anybody catch Jansen's stint last Friday night? How about Winckowski's?

 

The point is--to me, anyway--the game has lost none of its appeal--despite the importance of statistics.

[Nick]

Abreau is heating up in AAA. Man we have nothing but left handers.

 

Love the Vaz trade more and more.

[Hugh2]

Well said.

 

One can understand analytics and statistics and the human element. It doesn't have to be so black and white.

 

Yeah, that's one thing that always bugged me about some people who are very anti-analytics. Not all of them and all the time but you often get the "I don't care what whacky stat you have he doesn't pass the eye test" like.....traditional scouting and stats aren't a zero-sum game, and if anything the best pro scouts are huge proponents of both.

[moonslav59]

Abreau is heating up in AAA. Man we have nothing but left handers.

 

Love the Vaz trade more and more.

 

Many of the trades made a while back were thought to be near busts, busts or total busts, before the prospect portion of the trades started to come to fruition. Many are still in the minors, but they seem to look more promising. Some do not look any more promising or are out of our farm system.

 

Here is a look at just some of the players and how they are doing.

 

Betts for Verdugo Having his career year), Downs (DFA'd) and Wong (of to a very impressive start in 2023.)

 

Workman (fizzled) and Hembree (frazzled) for Pivetta (having his worst season with the Sox after 2.3 decent seasons) and Seabold (bye-bye.)

 

M Moreland (kinda over the hill) for Potts (gone) & Rosario (gone)

 

Kevin Pillar for Jacob Wallace (traded for Wyatt Mills.)

 

Benintendi for Cordero (DFA'd), Winckowski (off to a good start), FValdez & GGambrell (not impressive-still in system) and Luis de la Rosa (off to a nice start with Salem.)

 

Renfroe for JBJ (DFA'd), Binelas (not doing well) and David Hamilton (off to a very good start in '23.)

 

Vazquez (2 month rental and .585 OPS w HOU) for E Valdez (doing well for the Sox) and W Abreu (heating up and was supposed to be the best one of the two.)

 

Diekman (was DFA'd by CWS) for McGuire (.798 OPS in first 60 games w BOS)

 

Groome for Hosmer + $$$ (gone) and Ferguson (.390 OBP w 18 SBs with GRE/ last year .366 OBP and 61 SBs in HOU system) and Rosier (.801 OPS w POR w 18 SBs.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yeah, that's one thing that always bugged me about some people who are very anti-analytics. Not all of them and all the time but you often get the "I don't care what whacky stat you have he doesn't pass the eye test" like.....traditional scouting and stats aren't a zero-sum game, and if anything the best pro scouts are huge proponents of both.

 

Mr. Human Element: "Man, that Casas guy sure has been in a big slump.

 

Mr. Stat Geek: "But, he's our hottest hitter over the last 2 weeks with an OPS over 1.000!"

 

Mr. Human Element: "I don't use those fancy metrics."

 

Mr. Stat Geek: "Well, he does have a .345 BA in those 2 weeks."

 

Mr. Human Element: "Well, they must be weak hits, because my eyes are telling me something different."

 

[harmony]

The updated prospect rankings at MLB.com have Marcelo Mayer No. 5, Miguel Bleis No. 78 and Cedanne Rafaela No. 87:

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The updated prospect rankings at MLB.com have Marcelo Mayer No. 5, Miguel Bleis No. 78 and Cedanne Rafaela No. 87:

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

There are some clubs -- cognizant of fan interest, summer ticket sales, and universal scouting reports -- who are already promoting Top 10 MLB prospects to The Show.

 

Service time clocks -- even to some small market teams -- don't seem to be an issue...

[Bellhorn04]

So after 42 games, we're scoring 5.40 per game and allowing 5.36 per game.

[Bellhorn04]

It seems fair to say that Bloom hasn't exactly turned us into "Tampa Bay North" in the run prevention area...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So after 42 games, we're scoring 5.40 per game and allowing 5.36 per game.

 

My run differential may not be half full, but at least it's positive: 4/100ths of a run! Before the pizza boxes, that would be like a little more than 14 feet...

 

... or in pitching rotation terms, seven starters; we have so much depth, where will we find innings for them all (answer: Pablo just shotput a 34 mph Leephus).

[Nick]

It seems fair to say that Bloom hasn't exactly turned us into "Tampa Bay North" in the run prevention area...

 

Tampa Bay North would

 

1) trade Pivetta at deadline

2) trade Verdugo at deadline

 

Both have 1 1/2 years of team control left.

 

They would bring up Abreau and play him in left field

They would go with Sale, Paxton, Bello, Kluber and one of Houck/Whitlock as starters.

[notin]

There are some clubs -- cognizant of fan interest, summer ticket sales, and universal scouting reports -- who are already promoting Top 10 MLB prospects to The Show.

 

Service time clocks -- even to some small market teams -- don't seem to be an issue...

 

Are you saying the Marlins promoted Eury Perez to appease the 12,000 fans (not a made up number) that flock to their home games?

 

Or were you referring to the Mets as the team that promoted a top 10 prospect to generate fan interest, apparently after the luster wore off their $400mill spending spree this offseason? Has to be one of these two, since the only other top ten prospect with MLB experience is Jordan Walker, and he was demoted.

 

Of course, none of this is a reason to push Marcelo Mayer out of A ball directly into MLB…