A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Yes you are wrong again. You look at it as being pessimistic, but I look at it as not going overboard, and being as optimistic as you are. Rankings, and ratings are all over the place depending who you listen to, so I definitely wouldn’t judge anything on just one ranking from Law, or anyone else. Law was just one ranking that was brought up, and that’s why I commented on it.

 

"Overboard?"

 

LOL

 

I go out of my way to qualify it's all speculative.

[moonslav59]

Somewhere between Fernandez at 37 and Webb at 56?

 

My guess is mid-40's.

 

One site had him 44th for the ChiSox last season and Broadway 54th. Now Broadway is ranked 42nd for the Red Sox, but Denlinger had a better season last year. They were both drafted in '21 in subsequent rounds.

 

Then, I'll go 46.

 

LOL.

[moonslav59]

Lots of ex-Sox players signing minor league deals all over the place.

 

Our team did an excellent job preparing these players for the step down. Just trying to find things we are good at.

[Bellhorn04]

It's time for optimism about 2023.

 

(If the optimism is crushed later on, well, such is life.)

[dgalehouse]

Agree, and a good blacksmith may come in handy.

 

He could be useful if John Henry buys a racehorse.

[moonslav59]

It's time for optimism about 2023.

 

(If the optimism is crushed later on, well, such is life.)

 

I had hoped the roster would be better, after this winter, but I like a lot of what was done. I think we will surprise.

 

I like the direction of the farm and hope we start seeing results, this year, but more likely it will take 1-3 more years to really start feeling any kick we get from the farm. It's not the best farm, and graduating Bello and others should also be viewed as "help from the farm," but many teams can say the same thing about their recent grads. I guess I'm just not sure why anyone would not choose to be optimistic or at least a bit more enthusiastic about our farm, as compared to 2-5 years ago, or even longer.

 

I can understand having serious doubts about the 2023 ML team. So many questions to be answered is not an encouraging thing.

[cp176]

Agree, and a good blacksmith may come in handy.

 

Hey I'm all in on this guy. I'm Scottish and come from a long line of blacksmiths. Once again, a great move.

[jacksonianmarch]

What do they see in the guy they got for German? Strange

[moonslav59]

What do they see in the guy they got for German? Strange

 

Maybe the two seasons to Rule 5 was the major factor, but then again, there are hundreds of guys like that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey I'm all in on this guy. I'm Scottish and come from a long line of blacksmiths. Once again, a great move.

 

Does hammering into hooves have the same negligible pain effect as fingernail piercing? I'm not into either one, and don't find piercings or tattoos attractive on the opposite sex. But I assume tattoos on cattle hurt more than cowshoes.

[cp176]

Does hammering into hooves have the same negligible pain effect as fingernail piercing? I'm not into either one, and don't find piercings or tattoos attractive on the opposite sex. But I assume tattoos on cattle hurt more than cowshoes.

 

Hmm - Can't speak to this on a personal from experience standpoint. Never shoed a cow either nor do I have much knowledge of fingernail piercing. Is that really a thing? Actually is shoeing a cow a thing? Long winter huh.

[Hugh2]

What do they see in the guy they got for German? Strange

 

German in 1 year without taking up the 40 man today.

[oldtimer]

I had hoped the roster would be better, after this winter, but I like a lot of what was done. I think we will surprise.

 

I like the direction of the farm and hope we start seeing results, this year, but more likely it will take 1-3 more years to really start feeling any kick we get from the farm. It's not the best farm, and graduating Bello and others should also be viewed as "help from the farm," but many teams can say the same thing about their recent grads. I guess I'm just not sure why anyone would not choose to be optimistic or at least a bit more enthusiastic about our farm, as compared to 2-5 years ago, or even longer.

 

I can understand having serious doubts about the 2023 ML team. So many questions to be answered is not an encouraging thing.

 

I doubt of more than 50% of the changes made will yield positive results. Maybe we will get something to build on. One thing I think is worth a try is to replace fire ballers with high walk rates with strike throwers. Maybe less walks witt compensate for additional hits and fewer swing and misses.

[notin]

What do they see in the guy they got for German? Strange

 

Blacksmithing!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Blacksmithing!!

 

Horseshoes are this year's Red Sox theme. Just gotta get close enough... to grab a wild card.

 

Pitching horseshoes, that is... which is more precise (and hopefully less explosive) than lobbing grenades.

 

Hey, we didn't have to finish first watching the submarine races in high school, either.

[notin]

Horseshoes are this year's Red Sox theme. Just gotta get close enough... to grab a wild card.

 

Pitching horseshoes, that is... which is more precise (and hopefully less explosive) than lobbing grenades.

 

Hey, we didn't have to finish first watching the submarine races in high school, either.

 

Personally, I’d have been more excited if we got an alchemist…

[moonslav59]

I doubt of more than 50% of the changes made will yield positive results. Maybe we will get something to build on. One thing I think is worth a try is to replace fire ballers with high walk rates with strike throwers. Maybe less walks witt compensate for additional hits and fewer swing and misses.

 

Do we need more than half the changes to work in order to improve on '22?

 

The schedule change alone should add 4 more wins.

 

While Yoshida and Turner might hit as well as the 2022 Bogey & JD, we may not need them to even come close- just to be respectable. We may take up the slack by improving on our 1B and OF numbers, which really sucked.

 

While Sale and Paxton may give us close to nothing, we may be able to cobble together a decent rotation to go with the much improved pen. It's not like none of these guys have promise or upside abilities:

(We only need 4-5 out of 9 to do well.)

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

Mata

Crawford

Walter

Winckowski

Murphy

 

Other teams have 6-7 starters with real promise: we have 9-11.

 

Our pen looks not only strong, but pretty deep, too, especially if we can use several from Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and Murphy out of the pen.

 

Our line-up is questionable, but I think it rates to be better than 2022.

 

Our defense looks to be worse at RF, 2B and maybe CF, but it should be better at 1B, SS and maybe C.

 

There certainly are a ton of question marks on the 26, but most have serious upside and the rest of the 40 looks better, to me.

 

The rest of the 40:

Dalbec was basically a FT'er, last year: now he's in AAA.

Duran ended up with 223 PAs, last year, now he may get none.

EValdez, Rafaela, Hamilton and Abreu have replaced Downs, Almonte, Y Sanchez and Arauz.

Walter, Murphy and Mills have replaced DHern, Seabold and Danish

 

I'm feeling optimistic but with the knowledge those feeling can and might change on a dime.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Probably stating the obvious to say that Sale's health could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

[sk7326]

Do we need more than half the changes to work in order to improve on '22?

 

The schedule change alone should add 4 more wins.

 

While Yoshida and Turner might hit as well as the 2022 Bogey & JD, we may not need them to even come close- just to be respectable. We may take up the slack by improving on our 1B and OF numbers, which really sucked.

 

 

While Sale and Paxton may give us close to nothing, we may be able to cobble together a decent rotation to go with the much improved pen. It's not like none of these guys have promise or upside abilities:

(We only need 4-5 out of 9 to do well.)

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

Mata

Crawford

Walter

Winckowski

Murphy

 

Other teams have 6-7 starters with real promise: we have 9-11.

 

Our pen looks not only strong, but pretty deep, too, especially if we can use several from Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and Murphy out of the pen.

 

Our line-up is questionable, but I think it rates to be better than 2022.

 

Our defense looks to be worse at RF, 2B and maybe CF, but it should be better at 1B, SS and maybe C.

 

There certainly are a ton of question marks on the 26, but most have serious upside and the rest of the 40 looks better, to me.

 

The rest of the 40:

Dalbec was basically a FT'er, last year: now he's in AAA.

Duran ended up with 223 PAs, last year, now he may get none.

EValdez, Rafaela, Hamilton and Abreu have replaced Downs, Almonte, Y Sanchez and Arauz.

Walter, Murphy and Mills have replaced DHern, Seabold and Danish

 

I'm feeling optimistic but with the knowledge those feeling can and might change on a dime.

 

 

A lot has to go right in a division there 83 wins might be last place. The bullpen makeover is encouraging - we know bullpen performance is volatile as a thing, but there is a lot of depth. The rotation has a lot of bodies. And I do trust Cora to piece that together more or less.

 

Last year we had a case where the team got jack squat out of key offensive positions. (RF/1B) That should be better Of course, the center of the field is now uncertain.

 

I will say last year, the team's farm guys all had rough seasons. And basic law of averages points to hopefully that not being the case.

 

And yeah, Sale is a huge key - though at this point I am waiting for the next, innvovative way he gets himself injured.

[notin]

Probably stating the obvious to say that Sale's health could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

 

I’ve been saying that for 3 months…

[harmony]

Do we need more than half the changes to work in order to improve on '22?

 

The schedule change alone should add 4 more wins.

 

While Yoshida and Turner might hit as well as the 2022 Bogey & JD, we may not need them to even come close- just to be respectable. We may take up the slack by improving on our 1B and OF numbers, which really sucked.

 

While Sale and Paxton may give us close to nothing, we may be able to cobble together a decent rotation to go with the much improved pen. It's not like none of these guys have promise or upside abilities:

(We only need 4-5 out of 9 to do well.)

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

Mata

Crawford

Walter

Winckowski

Murphy

 

Other teams have 6-7 starters with real promise: we have 9-11.

Many teams have up to 15 prospective starters of the Chris Murphy/Josh Winckowski promise.

[moonslav59]

Many teams have up to 15 prospective starters of the Chris Murphy/Josh Winckowski promise.

 

One reason I ended up saying 9-11, instead of 11, is for that reason. Wink and Murphy are very similar to pitching depth on all teams.

 

Walter might be, too, but I probably like him more than most.

 

Right now, if healthy, our 6-8 or 9 starters might be #5s on quite a few teams:

 

Paxton (health is a huge if)

Mata

Crawford

 

Walter

 

I have also not given up on Winckowski after just one bad season of 70 IP, but I can certainly understand why many have.

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Probably stating the obvious to say that Sale's health could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

 

Absolutely. Sale is a big key in the success of this club.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. Sale is a big key in the success of this club.

 

...and he's been a significant reason for the club's recent lack of it.

[notin]

Many teams have up to 15 prospective starters of the Chris Murphy/Josh Winckowski promise.

 

15?

 

I’ll challenge that claim…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Many teams have up to 15 prospective starters of the Chris Murphy/Josh Winckowski promise.

 

Depends on what they're promising. But just look at what the AL East rival rotations added: NY - Rodon, Toronto - Bassitt, Tampa - Eflin, Baltimore - Gibson?

 

Well, maybe the O's starters are full of as many question marks as Boston's... Then again, the Birds also have the best young catcher in baseball, eight top 100 prospects (including #1), and the top-rated pitching prospect in the AL...

 

The Orioles also had eight batters with 13 or more home runs last year. The Sox had four -- and three of them are gone, baby, gone.

[dgalehouse]

...and he's been a significant reason for the club's recent lack of it.

 

The main reason for the lack of success was the firing of Dombrowski and the hiring of Bloom.

[dgalehouse]

Many teams have up to 15 prospective starters of the Chris Murphy/Josh Winckowski promise.

 

The Cooler.

[Old Red]

The main reason for the lack of success was the firing of Dombrowski and the hiring of Bloom.

 

I’ll second the motion!

[moonslav59]

The main reason for the lack of success was the firing of Dombrowski and the hiring of Bloom.

 

You think DD would have done much better having to slash $60M from the 2019 budget and have no farm help for 5 years?

 

He probably could have by trading Casas, Bello and Rafaela. Maybe he'd have done well trading Duran and Dalbec before they crashed and burned.

 

I just don't see how any GM could have done much better- maybe somewhat better, yes, especially if they traded prospects for the 2020-2022 window, but what would that have accomplished?

 

Would DD have kept Sale and ERod healthy in 2020?

 

Would he have prevented declines by young and aging players in 2022?

 

My guess: he'd have quit, if forced to cut $60M.