A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

Do we need more than half the changes to work in order to improve on '22?

 

The schedule change alone should add 4 more wins.

 

While Yoshida and Turner might hit as well as the 2022 Bogey & JD, we may not need them to even come close- just to be respectable. We may take up the slack by improving on our 1B and OF numbers, which really sucked.

 

While Sale and Paxton may give us close to nothing, we may be able to cobble together a decent rotation to go with the much improved pen. It's not like none of these guys have promise or upside abilities:

(We only need 4-5 out of 9 to do well.)

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

Mata

Crawford

Walter

Winckowski

Murphy

 

Other teams have 6-7 starters with real promise: we have 9-11.

 

Our pen looks not only strong, but pretty deep, too, especially if we can use several from Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and Murphy out of the pen.

 

Our line-up is questionable, but I think it rates to be better than 2022.

 

Our defense looks to be worse at RF, 2B and maybe CF, but it should be better at 1B, SS and maybe C.

 

There certainly are a ton of question marks on the 26, but most have serious upside and the rest of the 40 looks better, to me.

 

The rest of the 40:

Dalbec was basically a FT'er, last year: now he's in AAA.

Duran ended up with 223 PAs, last year, now he may get none.

EValdez, Rafaela, Hamilton and Abreu have replaced Downs, Almonte, Y Sanchez and Arauz.

Walter, Murphy and Mills have replaced DHern, Seabold and Danish

 

I'm feeling optimistic but with the knowledge those feeling can and might change on a dime.

 

 

The Red Sox have 9-11 starters with REAL promise? Stinkin Winkin is just that, and Walter, and Murphy are just suspects at this point. You were high on Seabold a year ago. The schedule change doesn’t mean 4 more wins either. The Red Sox won’t have to play as many games inside the Div, but they will be playing more teams with better records that they wouldn’t normally be playing. Finally I’m not counting on being better at D at SS either, so we’ll have to wait, and see on that one.

[Old Red]

You think DD would have done much better having to slash $60M from the 2019 budget and have no farm help for 5 years?

 

He probably could have by trading Casas, Bello and Rafaela. Maybe he'd have done well trading Duran and Dalbec before they crashed and burned.

 

I just don't see how any GM could have done much better- maybe somewhat better, yes, especially if they traded prospects for the 2020-2022 window, but what would that have accomplished?

 

Would DD have kept Sale and ERod healthy in 2020?

 

Would he have prevented declines by young and aging players in 2022?

 

My guess: he'd have quit, if forced to cut $60M.

 

 

You have asked that same question 868 times if DD could have done better than Bloom, and some have answered the same way 868 times that you disagreed with, and the answer is yes. Didn’t you hear the fans shouting to Bloom they wanted DD back when he was trying to explain the Mookie bet. Priceless!

[sk7326]

The main reason for the lack of success was the firing of Dombrowski and the hiring of Bloom.

 

It's not. NOW, the firing of Dombrowski was not really justified because he did exactly what the owners wanted him to do. But Bloom has been fine - he is dealing with ownership level issues.

 

Heck, Dombrowski's worst move - the extremely risky at the time extension for Chris Sale - had ownership buy-in. Ownership doesn't blindly delegate spending decisions like THAT.

Edited February 4, 2023 by sk7326

[dgalehouse]

You think DD would have done much better having to slash $60M from the 2019 budget and have no farm help for 5 years?

 

He probably could have by trading Casas, Bello and Rafaela. Maybe he'd have done well trading Duran and Dalbec before they crashed and burned.

 

I just don't see how any GM could have done much better- maybe somewhat better, yes, especially if they traded prospects for the 2020-2022 window, but what would that have accomplished?

 

Would DD have kept Sale and ERod healthy in 2020?

 

Would he have prevented declines by young and aging players in 2022?

 

My guess: he'd have quit, if forced to cut $60M.

 

 

I do think that Dombrowski would have done better than Bloom. He is simply a better G.M.

[moonslav59]

I do think that Dombrowski would have done better than Bloom. He is simply a better G.M.

 

I'm not so sure he's as good a GM when asked to cut $60M and have to find bargain basement performers.

 

Maybe he would have been.

 

It was a near impossible situation for any GM to create a winning team out of that roster and farm with a mandate to cut $60M, then add just $20M, the next year.

Edited February 4, 2023 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

It seems to me that Bloom's appeal was that he could win while spending less money. Well, that hasn't worked out very well. Dave Dombrowski is quite possibly on a Hall of Fame trajectory in his career as a baseball executive . There really is no comparison at this point. As for the money , old John Henry seems to have his mood swings when it comes to opening his overstuffed wallet.

[sk7326]

It seems to me that Bloom's appeal was that he could win while spending less money. Well, that hasn't worked out very well. Dave Dombrowski is quite possibly on a Hall of Fame trajectory in his career as a baseball executive . There really is no comparison at this point. As for the money , old John Henry seems to have his mood swings when it comes to opening his overstuffed wallet.

 

The mood swings are 100x more important than the GM here.

[notin]

It seems to me that Bloom's appeal was that he could win while spending less money. Well, that hasn't worked out very well. Dave Dombrowski is quite possibly on a Hall of Fame trajectory in his career as a baseball executive . There really is no comparison at this point. As for the money , old John Henry seems to have his mood swings when it comes to opening his overstuffed wallet.

 

 

The problem with Dombrowski was all he knew how to do was spend. He never acquired a single player that made you wonder what he saw in the guy and then later thought “ohhhhh, THAT’s what Dave saw.” I suppose Ryan Brasier was the closest. It makes me think he has no baseball acumen and just knows how to stack up the star players and create massive crippling debt while emptying farms for teams. And then he gets fired and the next guy gets blamed while cleaning up the mess. It’s like he’s not only piloting that ship into an iceberg, but he also makes sure to burn all the lifeboats before impact. And then watches the captain of the incoming rescue boat get blamed.

 

Does anyone think Tigers’ fans sing his praises the way people on this board do?

[notin]

I do think that Dombrowski would have done better than Bloom. He is simply a better G.M.

 

He’s not good when not allowed to spend…

[Old Red]

The problem with Dombrowski was all he knew how to do was spend. He never acquired a single player that made you wonder what he saw in the guy and then later thought “ohhhhh, THAT’s what Dave saw.” I suppose Ryan Brasier was the closest. It makes me think he has no baseball acumen and just knows how to stack up the star players and create massive crippling debt while emptying farms for teams. And then he gets fired and the next guy gets blamed while cleaning up the mess. It’s like he’s not only piloting that ship into an iceberg, but he also makes sure to burn all the lifeboats before impact. And then watches the captain of the incoming rescue boat get blamed.

 

Does anyone think Tigers’ fans sing his praises the way people on this board do?

Bloom gets blamed for making his own mess, and no DD did not empty the Red Sox farm.

[Bellhorn04]

The problem with Dombrowski was all he knew how to do was spend. He never acquired a single player that made you wonder what he saw in the guy and then later thought “ohhhhh, THAT’s what Dave saw.” I suppose Ryan Brasier was the closest. It makes me think he has no baseball acumen and just knows how to stack up the star players and create massive crippling debt while emptying farms for teams. And then he gets fired and the next guy gets blamed while cleaning up the mess. It’s like he’s not only piloting that ship into an iceberg, but he also makes sure to burn all the lifeboats before impact. And then watches the captain of the incoming rescue boat get blamed.

 

I think you go a little overboard in your criticism of him.

 

I think he did exactly what Henry hired him to do.

 

And he left us some pretty good prospects in Bello, Casas, Houck and Rafaela.

[notin]

Bloom gets blamed for making his own mess, and no DD did not empty the Red Sox farm.

 

 

Bloom gets blamed for what he did.

 

And yes, DD emptied the farm. The argument that no one he traded became a star was always the wrong one, and the type of thing people say to justify it…

[notin]

I think you go a little overboard in your criticism of him.

 

I think he did exactly what Henry hired him to do.

 

And he left us some pretty good prospects in Bello, Casas, Houck and Rafaela.

 

 

Not really.

 

He did what he was hired to do. But he also got fired for what he did.

 

But what did I say about him that was wrong? Has he ever won anything through any method except spending? Heck even the 1997 Marlins were an exercise in high budget free agency. I’m just never going to be impressed by that tactic…

[moonslav59]

It seems to me that Bloom's appeal was that he could win while spending less money. Well, that hasn't worked out very well. Dave Dombrowski is quite possibly on a Hall of Fame trajectory in his career as a baseball executive . There really is no comparison at this point. As for the money , old John Henry seems to have his mood swings when it comes to opening his overstuffed wallet.

 

We did do better than expected in 2021. To me, the plan was to not look real bad for 3-4 years and be highly competitive in 4-5 years.

 

2020 was a cluster and really no GM's fault.

 

Bloom is 1 for 1 in my book, which is not bad, considering the context. Not great, either, and I did expect he'd do better on finding low cost players who over perform. He seemed to miss by a year or two on Perez and Springs, and he did well acquiring Strahm, Wacha, Hill, Kike, Whitlock, Refsnyder, Schreiber, Arroyo and Renfroe for peanuts, but far too many of those type additions failed.

[moonslav59]

The problem with Dombrowski was all he knew how to do was spend. He never acquired a single player that made you wonder what he saw in the guy and then later thought “ohhhhh, THAT’s what Dave saw.” I suppose Ryan Brasier was the closest. It makes me think he has no baseball acumen and just knows how to stack up the star players and create massive crippling debt while emptying farms for teams. And then he gets fired and the next guy gets blamed while cleaning up the mess. It’s like he’s not only piloting that ship into an iceberg, but he also makes sure to burn all the lifeboats before impact. And then watches the captain of the incoming rescue boat get blamed.

 

Does anyone think Tigers’ fans sing his praises the way people on this board do?

 

But, but, but, the ring... !

[Old Red]

I think you go a little overboard in your criticism of him.

 

I think he did exactly what Henry hired him to do.

 

And he left us some pretty good prospects in Bello, Casas, Houck and Rafaela.

Exactly the 4 you mention is not from a emptied farm system.

[Bellhorn04]

Not really.

 

He did what he was hired to do. But he also got fired for what he did.

 

But what did I say about him that was wrong? Has he ever won anything through any method except spending? Heck even the 1997 Marlins were an exercise in high budget free agency. I’m just never going to be impressed by that tactic…

 

Dombrowski has made a lot of good trades. That's not the same thing as spending.

 

His deadline trades in 2018 were gold.

[moonslav59]

Bloom gets blamed for making his own mess, and no DD did not empty the Red Sox farm.

 

"Empty" is too strong a word, I agree, and it wasn't just DD's fault about the 5 year stretch between Devers in 2017 and Casas in 2022, but what word do you think fits the state of the farm from 2017 until DD left?

[Old Red]

Bloom gets blamed for what he did.

 

And yes, DD emptied the farm. The argument that no one he traded became a star was always the wrong one, and the type of thing people say to justify it…

Sounds like a well hyped flawed thinking on your part that the farm was emptied. On the other hand you were all in on the JBJ/Renfroe trade, so it doesn’t surprise me.

[moonslav59]

Exactly the 4 you mention is not from a emptied farm system.

 

Indeed, but that 5 year stretch should be called something, and for posters who love to assign blame for every tiny thing a GM does.

 

What would you call that long stretch?

 

Who is to blame for it?

 

How much effect did that have on the roster from 2019-2022?

[Old Red]

"Empty" is too strong a word, I agree, and it wasn't just DD's fault about the 5 year stretch between Devers in 2017 and Casas in 2022, but what word do you think fits the state of the farm from 2017 until DD left?

Ah the 5 yr stretch again that you’ve mentioned TMTTC now that doesn’t change a thing in Bloom’s bad moves, or non moves.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Old Red

[Old Red]

But, but, but, the ring... !

 

WL record, and a ring, and the here, and now is what matters most, and it’s debatable if you will ever understand that. 4 winning seasons, and that ring is what most fans see (not you) , and that’s why fans were telling Bloom, and JH they wanted DD back along with the boos they were giving Bloom.

[notin]

Dombrowski has made a lot of good trades. That's not the same thing as spending.

 

His deadline trades in 2018 were gold.

 

A fair point. Particularly Eovaldi.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski has made a lot of good trades. That's not the same thing as spending.

 

His deadline trades in 2018 were gold.

 

Many criticized the Kimbrell trade for giving up a player too much, but also because he was making FA-type money. (That changed shortly after the trade, as closers saw a huge spike in FA salary.)

 

Sale, Pom-pom and others were not paid highly, but they did add to the growing budget and then the Sale extension turned into a budget killer.

 

The Price signing remains the largest Sox FA signing, by far. The JD signing was the 5th highest Sox FA signing in history.

 

The Lux Tax budget went from

 

$178M in 2013

$186M in '14

$199M in '15

then DD...

$204M in '16

$192M in '17

$239M in '18

$244M in '19

 

After 2015, contracts lost (addition by subtraction):

$16M Napoli

$13M Vic

$9.5M Masterson

$4.8M A Craig

$2M Breslow

 

No doubt, DD did a masterful job at building a 3 year window (shoulda been 4+) by trading over-rated prospects, keeping Devers and adding promising prospects like Houck, Mata, Casas and Rafaela. I have zero issues with what he did.

 

That being said, I also expected a price to be paid for what he ended up doing. The farm went 5 years without much help, at all. The budget got bloated, and players started aging and getting hurt. He seemed to extend the wrong stars. He was likely not aware that JH would suddenly put the brakes on spending, so I don't really blame him for the overspending. I don't blame JH for his choices, either. He's the a big reason we have 4 rings.

 

The fact is, any GM handed the 2019 Red Sox and farm, given a mandate to slash $60M and add just $20M back the following season would be placed in a very tough situation.

 

To me, our posters' views on Bloom are based on what expectations they had after 2019. Many, simply looked at the still pretty high overall budget, and the names of stars remaining from the 2018 team and expected competitive teams right out of the gate, despite a $60M budget cut and next to no farm help. I happen to think their expectations were too high and for some, way too high, but there certainly is some merit to their points. We did still have a high budget and several stars on the roster.

 

I'm not sure what any GM magician could have done with that $60M cut, and maybe in hindsight, one could construct an alternative pathway- maybe trading Sale & Price, if even possible, and hand-picking FAs that over performed in 2020 and 2021, but there is no reason to think DD would have been that magician, in fact, his M.O. works against that notion. He has never been known at excelling in that situation.

 

[notin]

Exactly the 4 you mention is not from a emptied farm system.

 

So the same guy who says “they’re all suspect until they contribute wearing a Sox uniform” is suddenly on board with the prospect status of Rafaela, Casas and Bello?

 

Apparently they’re only suspect when it comes time to credit other GMs…

[Old Red]

So the same guy who says “they’re all suspect until they contribute wearing a Sox uniform” is suddenly on board with the prospect status of Rafaela, Casas and Bello?

 

Apparently they’re only suspect when it comes time to credit other GMs…

You got it wrong as usual . The saying goes prospects are useless until the produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does. Not all minor league players are prospects, and some are just suspects. It’s not that difficult.

[notin]

You got it wrong as usual . The saying goes prospects are useless until the produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does. Not all minor league players are prospects, and some are just suspects. It’s not that difficult.

 

You gave credit to DD for having Bello, Casas and Rafaela as proof the farm was not emptied. Now are you arguing that Bello (4.71 ERA) and Casas (.197 BA) have produced in a Sox uniform? In their limited time? And Rafaela, who has yet to play? I mean, since none have been traded, and none have produced, shouldn’t they be suspects and not prospects? And therefore not proof that DD didn’t empty the farm.

 

Or is there now suddenly another option from Mr. “Well you said this”?

[moonslav59]

Ah the 5 yr stretch again that you’ve mentioned TMTTC now that doesn’t change a thing in Bloom’s bad moves, or non moves.

 

No, it doesn't change how we grade those moves, but it did and still does affect the W-L success of any team.

 

You also have to look at what budget he was given to spend.

 

He was forced to trade Betts and Price, while losing Porcello and then Sale and ERod missed the whole 2020 season.

 

He had $20M to spend on 10-15 gaping holes on the roster. Seriously, what did you expect his signings to do? No doubt, Perez, Peraza, Marwin, Richards and others sucked, but you often get what you pay for, and Bloom was not given enough to get real talent, until the Story signing.

 

Later, the Paxton and Diekman signings sucked. The JBJ trade was as horrific as it can get. I'm in total agreement that many of his signings and moved have sucked, but many were never expected to be great given what was spent.

 

There are also enough good signings, many at bargain prices that did well or okay. Are they enough to offset the bad one? We obviously disagree, b ut I find it hard to look at the winter budgets he was given and to come to the conclusion he totally botched them all.

 

Kike 4.4 fWAR

Renfroe 2.0

Wacha 1.5 (3.3 bWAR)

Hill 1.8

Strahm 0.3

Refsnyder 1.3 (4 mos)

Schreiber 1.8 (5 mos) 2.7 bWAR

Arroyo 1.1

Perez 1.1

Richards 1.0

 

The Whitlock steal: 3.0 fWAR

 

Some players from trades:

5.1 Verdugo

3.9 Pivetta

1.3 McGuire (2 months)

1.2 Schwarber (2 months)

0.8 Iggy (2 mos.)

0.6 Ottavino

0.3 Strahm

0.3 Wong (2 mos.)

 

I see enough good to offset the bad, and when I look at the context of the money he had to spend and the obvious mandate to build the farm not trade it away, I see a decent overall grade. Not great. Not horrible. Not bad.

 

I'd say, given the circumstances, his MLB moves is about a B- to C+ or C grade.

 

His farm building appears to be a B or B+, but it's all speculation.

 

 

[moonslav59]

You got it wrong as usual . The saying goes prospects are useless until the produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does. Not all minor league players are prospects, and some are just suspects. It’s not that difficult.

 

But, you gave kudos to DD for not trading away suspects Casas, Bello and Rafaela, but refuse to give kudos to Bloom for Mayer, Romero, Bleis and Yorke, until they produce.

[moonslav59]

You gave credit to DD for having Bello, Casas and Rafaela as proof the farm was not emptied. Now are you arguing that Bello (4.71 ERA) and Casas (.197 BA) have produced in a Sox uniform? In their limited time? And Rafaela, who has yet to play? I mean, since none have been traded, and none have produced, shouldn’t they be suspects and not prospects? And therefore not proof that DD didn’t empty the farm.

 

Or is there now suddenly another option from Mr. “Well you said this”?

 

One could realistically even call Houck a "suspect."