A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

It's insulting when you make that offer at the same time you're signing a slightly lesser player to 6 years $140 mill, for one thing.

 

For another, Bogaerts ended up getting more than 3 times $90 mill. (Not that it was anything but an absurd amount that San Diego paid.)

 

“Slightly lesser” is tap-dancing.

 

The difference between Story and Bogaerts over the 3 previous seasons was about 1fWAR…

[notin]

If it was bad, why did Bogaerts sign it?

 

I think it was a good deal for both sides. The Sox got Bogey for 3 years at a reasonable rate, and he got the chance to cash in after 3 years, which he did.

 

Do you really think this was a bad contract?

 

 

I was surprised he took an AAV that low, even in 2019. Yes…

[Bellhorn04]

“Slightly lesser” is tap-dancing.

 

The difference between Story and Bogaerts over the 3 previous seasons was about 1fWAR…

 

OK, let's say they were dead equal. How does that change the point that Story's offer was much higher?

[Old Red]

You have every right to boo the guy who ended the curse and brought 4 rings in 2 decades. Nobody is saying you can't.

 

You also keep acting like my bailing on the team in July was somehow equal to your constant disdain and bitching about everything about our team. You bailed on the team the second they added Bloom as the GM and have not let up for one second, since.

 

Yes, you are not even close to being a "good fan" as I am. It's not even up for debate. 3 years you have done nothing but cry and bitch and say how much this team sucks. I bail in July, and you act like hell froze over.

 

Cheese, cheese, and more cheese for the whine, whine whine. Pat yourself on the back, and row, row, row your boat. Self appointed super fan? Wow! Quantity on post, and words does not mean quality and you are the Perfect Example of that. One Last time. B O O B O O B O O.

[Bellhorn04]

I was surprised he took an AAV that low, even in 2019. Yes…

 

Yes it was a bad contract for Bogey?

[moonslav59]

If it was bad, why did Bogaerts sign it?

 

I think it was a good deal for both sides. The Sox got Bogey for 3 years at a reasonable rate, and he got the chance to cash in after 3 years, which he did.

 

Do you really think this was a bad contract?

 

I think Bogey could have gotten more. It was clearly a team friendly deal.

 

All Bogey got was one extra year of guaranteed money, but it was at a rate that even at the time, was an underpayment. While true, nobody can predict the market and inflationary aspects, but Bogey would have made more had he not signed that deal.

 

One could argue, he'd have made less, in the long run, because he'd have been a FA after 2021 not 2022, and he'd never have gotten this deal with SD after 2021, but that is not really related to judging the contract he signed.

 

In hindsight, I wish DD would have kept negotiating to try and not have the opt out, but we don't know what Bogey would have taken. Would he have accepted $23M x 6 with no opt out? $25 x 6? It's hard to blame DD for something we'll never know, and that's kind of how I feel about what happened with Bloom and Bogey. Without knowing the bottom line dollar and years amount Bogey would have accepted, it's hard for me to fault not signing him. That doesn't lessen the fact that the $30M/1 yr offer was a slap in the face, but this does not take away from the main issue: what could we have gotten Bogey for 2 years ago, 1 year ago, 10 months ago or even 3-4 months ago?

 

I think he knew he was going to get a big payday, and the Sox would not be the team offering it.

[Old Red]

Yes it was a bad contract for Bogey?

 

He liked Boston, and wanted to stay. I don’t think it was anything more than that.

[moonslav59]

OK, let's say they were dead equal. How does that change the point that Story's offer was much higher?

 

Story's offer vs the DD contract with Bogey?

 

I think inflation explains it pretty well.

 

If you mean the $30M offer, which would bring the total offer to $90M/4, the AAV is pretty close to Story's, but yes, the total dollar amount for Story was much higher. That was just about as bad as the Lester low-ball offer, and similar in the fact that it seemed like no further offers were made until it was way too late.

 

It seems obvious, to me, the Sox never felt Bogey was worth what he would ever agree to signing. I don't appreciate the dog and pony show they projected, and i'll never understand why they think that old and tired show works. It clearly doesn't and never should have.

 

When they signed Story, Bogey was a goner. Most of us knew that but fought hard to truly believe they'd let him go for a measly comp pick. I'm still flabbergasted.

 

They think they are placating the fans, when in reality, they are just pissing them off more and more.

 

They keep choosing lose-lose options.

[moonslav59]

Cheese, cheese, and more cheese for the whine, whine whine. Pat yourself on the back, and row, row, row your boat. Self appointed super fan? Wow! Quantity on post, and words does not mean quality and you are the Perfect Example of that. One Last time. B O O B O O B O O.

 

Repetition does not make it true.

 

It's not about who is the best fan. There are plenty of fans just on this sight as "super" as anyone else, including myself.

 

It's about you being an awful fan. Rotten to the core.

 

Jacko and other Yankee fans have more respect for the Sox than you do. If everything the Sox do disgusts you so much, why not become a Jays fan?

[Bellhorn04]

I think Bogey could have gotten more. It was clearly a team friendly deal.

 

All Bogey got was one extra year of guaranteed money, but it was at a rate that even at the time, was an underpayment. While true, nobody can predict the market and inflationary aspects, but Bogey would have made more had he not signed that deal.

 

One could argue, he'd have made less, in the long run, because he'd have been a FA after 2021 not 2022, and he'd never have gotten this deal with SD after 2021, but that is not really related to judging the contract he signed.

 

I think Bogaerts was going to be a free agent after 2019 without the extension.

[Bellhorn04]

Story's offer vs the DD contract with Bogey?

 

I think inflation explains it pretty well.

 

If you mean the $30M offer, which would bring the total offer to $90M/4, the AAV is pretty close to Story's, but yes, the total dollar amount for Story was much higher. That was just about as bad as the Lester low-ball offer, and similar in the fact that it seemed like no further offers were made until it was way too late.

 

It seems obvious, to me, the Sox never felt Bogey was worth what he would ever agree to signing. I don't appreciate the dog and pony show they projected, and i'll never understand why they think that old and tired show works. It clearly doesn't and never should have.

 

When they signed Story, Bogey was a goner. Most of us knew that but fought hard to truly believe they'd let him go for a measly comp pick. I'm still flabbergasted.

 

They think they are placating the fans, when in reality, they are just pissing them off more and more.

 

They keep choosing lose-lose options.

 

Their PR has been horrible.

 

Though to be fair, from a PR standpoint there's no good way to bid goodbye to players like Betts and Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

I think Bogaerts was going to be a free agent after 2019 without the extension.

 

Yes. I stand corrected- actually, I'm sitting.

 

That was an extremely team-friendly deal. I can totally understand Bogey feeling he was owed more respect than he got from Bloom & Co.

 

I just have to think the Sox never felt he was worth anywhere near what he wanted, and just blew off the whole negotiations while pretending to the media that he was a high priority. It doesn't make sense that any business would do something like this and think they won't be noticed.

 

[moonslav59]

Their PR has been horrible.

 

Though to be fair, from a PR standpoint there's no good way to bid goodbye to players like Betts and Bogaerts.

 

True, and the same was true of Pedro, Damon and Jake, but those were quickly forgotten as they either declined quickly and or we went on to win a ring, shortly afterwards.

 

I think a major reason these two hurt so much, is that we have not been winning.

 

Fans are still pissed over Lester, but the ring in 2018 hushed the roar a bit.

 

All we need is a quick ring, and maybe the boo-birds will quiet down for a few days, anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. I stand corrected- actually, I'm sitting.

 

That was an extremely team-friendly deal. I can totally understand Bogey feeling he was owed more respect than he got from Bloom & Co.

 

I just have to think the Sox never felt he was worth anywhere near what he wanted, and just blew off the whole negotiations while pretending to the media that he was a high priority. It doesn't make sense that any business would do something like this and think they won't be noticed.

 

 

It was Lester Redux. The similarities between the two situations were uncanny...

[notin]

OK, let's say they were dead equal. How does that change the point that Story's offer was much higher?

 

It was longer. AAV differed by $500K. Bear in mind that unlike Bogaerts, Story was a free agent and free to seek other offers at the time…

[notin]

Their PR has been horrible.

 

Though to be fair, from a PR standpoint there's no good way to bid goodbye to players like Betts and Bogaerts.

 

Agreed.

 

But also arguable both could have been locked up before Bloom was hired…

[Old Red]

It was Lester Redux. The similarities between the two situations were uncanny...

 

But at least JH met Lester out in the parking lot to say goodby.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

But also arguable both could have been locked up before Bloom was hired…

 

Sure. And all we can do is speculate as to why they weren't.

 

But I don't think it's very controversial to say that in a case like Betts, it's the owners calling the shots...

[Bellhorn04]

But at least JH met Lester out in the parking lot to say goodby.

 

One thing I'll always remember about Lester is that (reportedly), when asked about the 4/70 offer, he just smiled and said "They took a shot."

[notin]

Yes it was a bad contract for Bogey?

 

Do you remember what you thought at the time? And he had one year to go until free agency

[notin]

Sure. And all we can do is speculate as to why they weren't.

 

But I don't think it's very controversial to say that in a case like Betts, it's the owners calling the shots...

 

I wouldn’t think so. But yet somehow Bloom was supposed to extend him? Or not trade him and let him walk away for nothing?

[Old Red]

Agreed.

 

But also arguable both could have been locked up before Bloom was hired…

 

It would have been great if DD could have locked up all 3 of Betts, Bogey, and Raffy early on, and it would have been cheaper too, but he didn’t, so we can say he failed, and I have no problem with that, but once again that takes nothing away from from what Bloom did, or didn’t do last off season, or the season before that when he could have locked Bogey, and Raffy up. They both failed, but the biggest difference is that DD has been a winner, and Bloom is not, or has not. D D had his own failures, and Bloom has his own too.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t think so. But yet somehow Bloom was supposed to extend him? Or not trade him and let him walk away for nothing?

 

To me, assigning any blame to Bloom for losing Betts is so clearly unfounded.

 

I do think it's fair to wonder, if Bloom could have gotten better for Betts, but when you factor in the half-Price inclusion, the list of possible trade partners might have been narrowed to one- maybe two teams. It was reported the Padres wanted to send back Myers as a salary dump off-set, so i really might have been just one team. We'll likely never know for sure, but the fact is we traded one year of team control on Betts. We were not going to re-sign him. We added 3 years of half-Price which saved $15M a year.

 

It's easy to superficially look at the trade as Betts for Dugo and Wong and cry "BLUNDER!" It's not spinning to look at all the facts.

 

The Bogey situation is entirely different. Once can blame DD for not insisting on there being no opt out and paying Bogey more for that, but Bloom did make some choices, like signing Story and Yoshida, instead of Bogey, but even that choice may have been driven from above Bloom.

[moonslav59]

It would have been great if DD could have locked up all 3 of Betts, Bogey, and Raffy early on, and it would have been cheaper too, but he didn’t, so we can say he failed, and I have no problem with that, but once again that takes nothing away from from what Bloom did, or didn’t do last off season, or the season before that when he could have locked Bogey, and Raffy up. They both failed, but the biggest difference is that DD has been a winner, and Bloom is not, or has not. D D had his own failures, and Bloom has his own too.

 

The biggest difference was what each GM was handed for a foundation, a farm and a budget.

 

The gap is mind-boggling wide.

 

No doubt, the records are vastly different, too, but there are stark reasons for that. Minimizing those differences is the flaw in your position, IMO.

[Nick]

You lock up players before they get to arbitration. Otherwise you end up paying what you paid Devers. How many of those can you afford?

 

I didn't hear many of you asking for Betts'

extension say his 3rd year.

Bunch of f***ing Monday morning quarterbacks on this board.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Do you remember what you thought at the time? And he had one year to go until free agency

 

When I first heard he signed for 6/120, I was surprised. It seemed like a large discount.

 

When I found out about the opt-out it took some of the luster off it.

 

I don't think any player has ever benefited more from an opt-out...

[Bellhorn04]

You lock up players before they get to arbitration. Otherwise you end up paying what you paid Devers. How many of those can you afford?

 

True, but it's not like there's no risk in the early lock-up, either. Tatis Jr. comes to mind.

 

Whatever you do, there's gonna be plenty of risk.

[notin]

It would have been great if DD could have locked up all 3 of Betts, Bogey, and Raffy early on, and it would have been cheaper too, but he didn’t, so we can say he failed, and I have no problem with that, but once again that takes nothing away from from what Bloom did, or didn’t do last off season, or the season before that when he could have locked Bogey, and Raffy up. They both failed, but the biggest difference is that DD has been a winner, and Bloom is not, or has not. D D had his own failures, and Bloom has his own too.

 

 

It’s a lot harder to lock up players in their 4th and 5th years.

 

I agree Bloom has failed at a lot of things, but holding trading Betts against him is just foolish. I’m not sure he wanted Bogaerts (not that I agree) but he really shouldn’t have had the choice. How does DD give an injured Sale a better contract than a healthy Bogaerts?

 

I don’t like watching the Sox go crazy spending unless it’s on (preferably pre-arb) extensions for homegrown players. Dig back up 2016 on this board and you can find posts about me saying ditch Price and extend Betts…

[notin]

True, but it's not like there's no risk in the early lock-up, either. Tatis Jr. comes to mind.

 

Whatever you do, there's gonna be plenty of risk.

 

 

To be fair, that one might still work out.

 

Scott Kingery, on the other hand…

[notin]

When I first heard he signed for 6/120, I was surprised. It seemed like a large discount.

 

When I found out about the opt-out it took some of the luster off it.

 

I don't think any player has ever benefited more from an opt-out...

 

Manny Machado accepts your challenge after this season…