A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

When Dombrowski took over, he started his first offseason with:

Moncada

Devers

Espinoza

Margot

Benintendi

Kopech

 

Some high end talent, but it really dropped off after that. #10 in the system was Deven Marrero. After '16/'17 promotions and the Sale trade, the system really didn't have much left to crow about that was ready to contribute in the near future.

 

The system was best when run under Theo and hasn't really reached those heights since.

 

Agreed. Would you say this farm is the best since Ben or Theo?

[Bellhorn04]

DD traded 20 prospects who had once been top 20 in the system. The fact that many never came close to expectations or had dropped in the rankings before being traded, does not take away from the fact that a ton of prospects were traded.

 

Thankfully, he kept the one blue-chipper, Devers. I think only Matt Barnes was a prospect DD inherited and was still around when he left. I could be wrong, here.

 

That's a big part of the job, getting something for the overvalued assets and keeping the legit valuable ones.

[moonslav59]

DD squandered the farm? Getting Kimbrel, and Sale was nowhere near a squander, and saying most felt is was squandered is an over exaggeration. Even Moncada has not lived up to the hype.

 

That's pretty much exactly what I said. He squandered much of a farm that was over-rated. He kept the best ones and added some surprisingly promising prospects with some low picks and restricted IFA situations.

 

That does not mean trading 20 high or once highly rated prospects did not happen.

[moonslav59]

That's a big part of the job, getting something for the overvalued assets and keeping the legit valuable ones.

 

I never had a problem with DD, but I am also willing to accept the consequences of the whole ball of wax he brought to the team and our team's history.

 

I do not think he went overboard. I'm glad he did what he did.

 

One side-effect was the 5 year lull with not good prospects, except Houck. That was not all on DD, either. The farm he inherited was not deep and was overrated. He kept the right guys and added some very promising players, but he has to be given partial blame for the state of the farm and budget he left behind.

 

Again, to me, it was all worth it, but there was a price to pay, and we're paying it now.

 

I don't "blame" DD, because I like what he did.

 

I even liked the Sale extension, at the time, so I refrain from bashing him for it, but it has to be viewed as weighing factor when judging Bloom and the cards he was handed. Would Bloom be bashed as much had DD kept Betts, instead of Sale and extended Bogey with no opt out?

 

It's hard to know.

[Old Red]

Agreed. Would you say this farm is the best since Ben or Theo?

 

Only time, and production in a big league uniform will tell that, and not some kind of rankng.

[moonslav59]

OK, but there was no lasting toll for either of those, in terms of talent surrendered. Shaw turned out to be the biggest loss, for 2 years...

 

The funny thing was, Shaw was not even a prospect when traded, so for a while the biggest loss was not even from the DD farm.

 

The farm he inherited was overrated, and he used that aspect to a great advantage by getting back players for highly regarded prospects that mostly crapped out or got hurt. He deserves kudos for all that.

 

That being said, he still traded 20 prospects and was here for and left behind parts of that 5 year stretch from Devers to Casas, where only Houck amounted to anything enar substantial.

[moonslav59]

Only time, and production in a big league uniform will tell that, and not some kind of rankng.

 

Indeed. Nobody disagrees with this, but some of us choose to feel better about having a higher ranking than before. Some of us latch onto the one and only service who gives us a poor ranking and holds up that banner. We choose our positions of optimism or pessimism.

[Bellhorn04]

That's pretty much exactly what I said. He squandered much of a farm that was over-rated. He kept the best ones and added some surprisingly promising prospects with some low picks and restricted IFA situations.

 

That does not mean trading 20 high or once highly rated prospects did not happen.

 

Squandered means wasted. Not the right word. Expended would fit better.

[Old Red]

I never had a problem with DD, but I am also willing to accept the consequences of the whole ball of wax he brought to the team and our team's history.

 

I do not think he went overboard. I'm glad he did what he did.

 

One side-effect was the 5 year lull with not good prospects, except Houck. That was not all on DD, either. The farm he inherited was not deep and was overrated. He kept the right guys and added some very promising players, but he has to be given partial blame for the state of the farm and budget he left behind.

 

Again, to me, it was all worth it, but there was a price to pay, and we're paying it now.

 

I don't "blame" DD, because I like what he did.

 

I even liked the Sale extension, at the time, so I refrain from bashing him for it, but it has to be viewed as weighing factor when judging Bloom and the cards he was handed. Would Bloom be bashed as much had DD kept Betts, instead of Sale and extended Bogey with no opt out?

 

It's hard to know.

 

Oh the 5 yr lull that we’ve heard about for the 999th time now. We get it. I was against the Sale extension when it happened, because Sale was a TJ waiting to happen at anytime, and I’ve Bashed DD for it ever since. If DD would have landed Betts, and extended Bogey to a contact that stuck I believe the Red Sox would be better off today. Then you would have more to build around more than you have now, and if some of the Bello, Casas, and Mayer types work out then you have something unlike now.

[moonslav59]

This list is a bit deceiving, because it gives the highest ranking each prospect DD traded reached before being traded. Many had already fallen by the time they were traded. Many fell off a cliff shortly after being traded.

 

1 Moncada

1 Swihart

3 Margot

3 Espinoza

5 Kopech

5 Beeks

6 Guerra

7 Basabe

9 Dubon

9. S Travis

11 Shaun Anderson

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

14 Pat Light

17 Buttrey

17 Jerez

18. Basabe II

20 Nogosek

21 Noe Ramirez

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Would you say this farm is the best since Ben or Theo?

 

Ben started off with Mookie, JBJ and Xander thanks to Theo. Hard to just to go by named GM. Ben was overrated for farm stuff IMO. Bloom seems better.

 

I think this system top to bottom is the best it has been (if including Casas) since the initial 2014 rankings that included:

Xander

JBJ

Owens

Checchini

Swihart

Ranaudo

Webster

Barnes

Workman

Betts

Vazquez

Margot

Devers

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed. Would you say this farm is the best since Ben or Theo?

 

Yep, except the prospects about to make the most immediate big league impacts are Dombro's. And it's not a stretch to imagine Bloom's best prospects becoming stars when the next GM's in charge.

 

It's not fair, either, comparing which guy is the best farmer when the rules and regulations have changed so much -- and have become more restrictive -- since Theo and his boys signed and paid everyone.

[Bellhorn04]

This list is a bit deceiving, because it gives the highest ranking each prospect DD traded reached before being traded. Many had already fallen by the time they were traded. Many fell off a cliff shortly after being traded.

 

1 Moncada

1 Swihart

3 Margot

3 Espinoza

5 Kopech

5 Beeks

6 Guerra

7 Basabe

9 Dubon

9. S Travis

11 Shaun Anderson

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

14 Pat Light

17 Buttrey

17 Jerez

18. Basabe II

20 Nogosek

21 Noe Ramirez

 

Yikes, talk about suspects.

[mvp 78]

OK, but there was no lasting toll for either of those, in terms of talent surrendered. Shaw turned out to be the biggest loss, for 2 years...

 

I disagree. Espinoza was a very good asset that could have been dealt for a better piece than Pomeranz. Maybe hold off on dealing him until the next offseason as part of a larger package?

[sk7326]

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) ranks Boston at 14

 

The top of the system -- Marcelo Mayer and Triston Casas -- did what was expected and continued moving up the list. Beyond that, last season was a mixed bag for Red Sox prospects.

 

Here's what happened to prospects Nos. 3-11, in order: Nick Yorke was downgraded due to a tough season in which he was a bit unlucky with outcomes, Jarren Duran graduated but still hasn't found much big league success, Jeter Downs went to the Nationals on waivers, Gilberto Jimenez and Wilkelman Gonzalez went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft after up-and-down seasons, Jay Groome was traded to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer salary dump, Ronaldo Hernandez was outrighted off of the 40-man roster, Chris Murphy was fine but nothing more in the upper minors, and Noah Song was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Phillies.

 

While that stretch of the list wasn't very good, there were a handful of breakout campaigns (Miguel Bleis, Ceddanne Rafaela, Blaze Jordan, Eddinson Paulino) of players who now move into that range in the team rankings along with some players added in the draft (Mikey Romero, Roman Anthony, Cutter Coffey) who also belong up there. Given how things are going at the big league level, the Red Sox need a strong next wave of players coming behind Casas and Mayer. More steps forward from this group are crucial.

[notin]

Soto was traded for 2.5 years, during a pennant chase. Mookie was traded for 1 year. That's an amazingly huge difference.

 

It does seem like years of control and salary are larger factors than ability when determining the return of a trade…

[moonslav59]

Squandered means wasted. Not the right word. Expended would fit better.

 

Ok. Poor choice of words. It's hard to squander something that was not all that great, and we got good to great returns on just about every good player traded.

 

There are a few players doing okay, today, but hardly any DD trades are ones we wish we had back.

[moonslav59]

Yikes, talk about suspects.

 

YES!

 

Guerra really jumps out as a WTF!

[moonslav59]

Yep, except the prospects about to make the most immediate big league impacts are Dombro's. And it's not a stretch to imagine Bloom's best prospects becoming stars when the next GM's in charge.

 

It's not fair, either, comparing which guy is the best farmer when the rules and regulations have changed so much -- and have become more restrictive -- since Theo and his boys signed and paid everyone.

 

Theo lived off comp picks, too.

[mvp 78]

It does seem like years of control and salary are larger factors than ability when determining the return of a trade…

 

I think it's the combination of all three.

[moonslav59]

I disagree. Espinoza was a very good asset that could have been dealt for a better piece than Pomeranz. Maybe hold off on dealing him until the next offseason as part of a larger package?

 

I remember thinking, at the time, maybe we could have gotten Quintana with Sale, had we included Espinoza and more.

 

Q had more years of control than Sale, too.

[mvp 78]

Theo lived off comp picks, too.

 

What could Bloom have done with QO picks if they weren't in the 4th round?

[moonslav59]

I think it's the combination of all three.

 

GMs used to give a lot more for 2 month rentals, so I think the proportions have changed.

[moonslav59]

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) ranks Boston at 14

 

I'll be honest: I expected better and think we are better than #14, but we clearly look better than 3, 4, 5... years ago,

[Old Red]

Indeed. Nobody disagrees with this, but some of us choose to feel better about having a higher ranking than before. Some of us latch onto the one and only service who gives us a poor ranking and holds up that banner. We choose our positions of optimism or pessimism.

 

I still go buy the adage no matter of any rankings that prospects/suspects are useless until they are producing in a Red Sox uniform, or traded for someone who does. They are good to talk about, and dream about, and hope about , and wish about in the meantime though.

[Old Red]

I'll be honest: I expected better and think we are better than #14, but we clearly look better than 3, 4, 5... years ago,

 

Fine looks better than 3,4,5… years ago, but does that translate to a better big league club is what’s most important to some.

[notin]

I think it's the combination of all three.

 

It’s definitely a combination of the three. But equally? If not, what’s most important? And what’s least?

 

Is 3 years of a 2.5 fWAR player going to bring back a better return than 1 year of a 6 fWAR player?

[mvp 78]

GMs used to give a lot more for 2 month rentals, so I think the proportions have changed.

 

It depends on how desperate the GM is.

[mvp 78]

I'll be honest: I expected better and think we are better than #14, but we clearly look better than 3, 4, 5... years ago,

 

10-15 range seems fair enough IMO. It's where most of the rankings place them. Top half of the league with room for improvement if the current guys develop. Chaim needs another strong draft.

[mvp 78]

I still go buy the adage no matter of any rankings that prospects/suspects are useless until they are producing in a Red Sox uniform, or traded for someone who does. They are good to talk about, and dream about, and hope about , and wish about in the meantime though.

 

So they aren't useless then, especially since their development can lead to them being traded for valuable pieces at the very least.