A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Defensively? Yes. Vs LHP? Yes.

 

But Duran might have some offensive usefulness, especially with the rule changes…

 

I just feel like there could be a cheap option available right now that would be an upgrade over either.

 

Robbie Grossman? 137 wRC+ vs LHP in 2021.

 

Adam Duvall? 129 wRC+ vs LHP in 2022.

 

Pillar? He can field all 3 positions, but seems to have clubhouse issues.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

On the mlb.com prospects list, the Red Sox list 13 infielders in their top 20, including 8 shortstops. Many are the sought-after, versatile, multi-positional players valued so highly by this administration.

 

Mayer and Rafaela have to be Boston's #1 and #2 prospects going into '23 (since Casas and Bello are now big leaguers). But there has to be one or two of the other 6 that at least one of the other 29 MLB clubs might want in a trade: Romero, Lugo, Paulino, Bonaci, Coffey, Koss.

 

We don't need 8 future shortstops -- package one in a deal for a major leaguer to play there this year... and/or a centerfielder... and/or a second baseman. Let's go.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Adam Duvall is an unsigned free agent all-or-nothing right-handed power hitter that makes too much sense as a replacement for Trevor Story in the batting order.

 

In 2021, Duvall helped a first place team win a World Series. He blasted 38 homers, led the NL with 113 RBI, and played Gold Glove defense in the outfield.

 

Couldn't a last place team use a guy like that?

[notin]

I just feel like there could be a cheap option available right now that would be an upgrade over either.

 

Robbie Grossman? 137 wRC+ vs LHP in 2021.

 

Adam Duvall? 129 wRC+ vs LHP in 2022.

 

Pillar? He can field all 3 positions, but seems to have clubhouse issues.

 

Two from Andrus, Profar and Duvall.

 

Plus sign a reliever just for fun.

[moonslav59]

On the mlb.com prospects list, the Red Sox list 13 infielders in their top 20, including 8 shortstops. Many are the sought-after, versatile, multi-positional players valued so highly by this administration.

 

Mayer and Rafaela have to be Boston's #1 and #2 prospects going into '23 (since Casas and Bello are now big leaguers). But there has to be one or two of the other 6 that at least one of the other 29 MLB clubs might want in a trade: Romero, Lugo, Paulino, Bonaci, Coffey, Koss.

 

We don't need 8 future shortstops -- package one in a deal for a major leaguer to play there this year... and/or a centerfielder... and/or a second baseman. Let's go.

 

Bleis might be number 2, when Casas graduates, but he is too far away.

 

I'm not sure what guys like Lugo and Bonaci bring back in trade, but probably nothing impactful.

 

I'd like to keep Romero, but I get your point.

 

What can we get for Duran & Dalbec?.

[notin]

Bleis might be number 2, when Casas graduates, but he is too far away.

 

I'm not sure what guys like Lugo and Bonaci bring back in trade, but probably nothing impactful.

 

I'd like to keep Romero, but I get your point.

 

What can we get for Duran & Dalbec?.

 

Lugo with his move to 3b does help his future if he stays with Boston…

[moonslav59]

Two from Andrus, Profar and Duvall.

 

Plus sign a reliever just for fun.

 

cots says we have $28M to spend, and why delay the Devers tax hit to 2024, unless we plan ons pending, this season?

 

$28M is enough to sign Andrus, Fulmer and maybe one from Duvall or Profar. We might trade to open roster slots and not need all 4.

 

How about...

 

Dalbec and Ort for Michael A Taylor.

Murphy for Wendle

Sign Andrus and Fulmer

 

Keep some money for the deadline.

[Nick]

cots says we have $28M to spend, and why delay the Devers tax hit to 2024, unless we plan ons pending, this season?

 

$28M is enough to sign Andrus, Fulmer and maybe one from Duvall or Profar. We might trade to open roster slots and not need all 4.

 

How about...

 

Dalbec and Ort for Michael A Taylor.

Murphy for Wendle

Sign Andrus and Fulmer

 

Keep some money for the deadline.

 

And we have Devers covered for next year with Barnes ($9.375M) and Paxton's ($4,000) expiring contracts. (Going from $17.5M to $29.1M)

 

Right now, Sox are 10th in the majors for projected CB tax payroll at $205M. That maybe the lowest we've been in awhile.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Nick

[Old Red]

Adam Duvall is an unsigned free agent all-or-nothing right-handed power hitter that makes too much sense as a replacement for Trevor Story in the batting order.

 

In 2021, Duvall helped a first place team win a World Series. He blasted 38 homers, led the NL with 113 RBI, and played Gold Glove defense in the outfield.

 

Couldn't a last place team use a guy like that?

 

Here are the Boston Red Sox a big market club at that, and we are talking like this is like the last rounds of a fantasy draft, and we are fending for table scraps. Have we sunken this low?

[Nick]

Here are the Boston Red Sox a big market club at that, and we are talking like this is like the last rounds of a fantasy draft, and we are fending for table scraps. Have we sunken this low?

 

Probably, 10th in CB Tax Payroll right now. We should be in the top 5.

[moonslav59]

And we have Devers covered for next year with Barnes ($9.375M) and Paxton's ($4,000) expiring contracts. (Going from $17.5M to $29.1M)

 

Right now, Sox are 10th in the majors for projected CB tax payroll at $205M. That maybe the lowest we've been in awhile.

 

It was $185M in 2020 and $208 in 2021.

 

Before that, 2017 was at $192M CB.

[moonslav59]

Probably, 10th in CB Tax Payroll right now. We should be in the top 5.

 

If we sign Andrus or trade for some salary, we may end up in the top 5-7.

 

We know we are setting, so we won't pass anybody going over. That's for sure.

[Old Red]

Probably, 10th in CB Tax Payroll right now. We should be in the top 5.

 

Table scraps are table scraps no matter what the payroll is.

[mvp 78]

On the mlb.com prospects list, the Red Sox list 13 infielders in their top 20, including 8 shortstops. Many are the sought-after, versatile, multi-positional players valued so highly by this administration.

 

Mayer and Rafaela have to be Boston's #1 and #2 prospects going into '23 (since Casas and Bello are now big leaguers). But there has to be one or two of the other 6 that at least one of the other 29 MLB clubs might want in a trade: Romero, Lugo, Paulino, Bonaci, Coffey, Koss.

 

We don't need 8 future shortstops -- package one in a deal for a major leaguer to play there this year... and/or a centerfielder... and/or a second baseman. Let's go.

 

MLB teams have trended towards wanting guys that are closer to MLB than the A ball guys the Sox could deal.

[moonslav59]

Probably, 10th in CB Tax Payroll right now. We should be in the top 5.

 

We are currently about $37M below 2022's CB number.

 

That's basically:

20 Bogey

17 Nate

[moonslav59]

MLB teams have trended towards wanting guys that are closer to MLB than the A ball guys the Sox could deal.

 

It looks that way.

 

That being said, we have a lot of ML ready and recent grads on our roster and in our system, right now. I'm not sure how many GM want these guys, and it looks like keeping our best prospects has been a high priority from before DD's tenure ended.

 

I see 15, maybe more...

 

6 Recent Grads:

Bello

Wong

Ort

Wink

Crawford

Duran

 

3 Prospects with ML experience already:

Casas

Kelly

German

 

6 Prospects expected to reach MLB by season's end:

Mata

Walter

Murphy

EValdez

Rafaela

Ro Hern

 

2-3 Possibles from...

Mayer

Abreu

Hamilton

S Scott

Kavadas

[moonslav59]

Probably, 10th in CB Tax Payroll right now. We should be in the top 5.

 

fangraphs has us 12th in CB, but we could pass 2-4 teams with a couple signings or trades for higher salaries:

 

365 NYM

 

292 NYY

 

267 SDP

253 PHI

242 TOR

240 ATL

237 LAD

 

221 LAA

220 TEX

214 CHC

213 SFG

211 BOS

209 HOU

205 CWS

[mvp 78]

Probably, 10th in CB Tax Payroll right now. We should be in the top 5.

 

Top 7 is above CBT. Sox should stay below that this season now. Next year, they should be over.

[moonslav59]

BTV has accepted these two trades and both seem to be liked by people on both sides:

 

This one has 3-0 approval on theMarlin's side and it's 5-1 on the Sox side:

 

Murphy, Dalbec & Seabold

for

Wendle & Bleier

 

This one is 2-1 Marlins and 3-2 Sox

Duran, Brasier, Dalbec & Seabold

for

Wendle & Bleier

 

This one is 6-0 Sox and 5-0 O's

Murphy & Seabold

for

Jorge Mateo

[Bobe2]

BTV has accepted these two trades and both seem to be liked by people on both sides:

 

This one has 3-0 approval on theMarlin's side and it's 5-1 on the Sox side:

 

Murphy, Dalbec & Seabold

for

Wendle & Bleier

 

This one is 2-1 Marlins and 3-2 Sox

Duran, Brasier, Dalbec & Seabold

for

Wendle & Bleier

 

This one is 6-0 Sox and 5-0 O's

Murphy & Seabold

for

Jorge Mateo

 

Sox just dfa’d Connor Seabold

[moonslav59]

Sox just dfa’d Connor Seabold

 

Yes, it's the best time to get a deal done, quickly.

 

We just DFA'd DHern, then traded him, days later.

[notin]

BTV has accepted these two trades and both seem to be liked by people on both sides:

 

This one has 3-0 approval on theMarlin's side and it's 5-1 on the Sox side:

 

Murphy, Dalbec & Seabold

for

Wendle & Bleier

 

This one is 2-1 Marlins and 3-2 Sox

Duran, Brasier, Dalbec & Seabold

for

Wendle & Bleier

 

This one is 6-0 Sox and 5-0 O's

Murphy & Seabold

for

Jorge Mateo

 

Seabold might be traded, but the acquiring team needs a 40 man roster spot available. Not as likely in these 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 type deals…

[moonslav59]

Seabold might be traded, but the acquiring team needs a 40 man roster spot available. Not as likely in these 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 type deals…

 

They'd have to think Seabold was better than their #40.

 

The O's must have felt DHern was better than their #40, so who knows?

[moonslav59]

RIP Lee Tinsley.

 

He was 53.

[Bellhorn04]

So as of mid-January, we have one position player who is both a) a proven MLB commodity and whose Opening Day starting position we know.

 

And somehow, strangely, you get the feeling Bloom likes it this way...

[moonslav59]

A look at Bobby Dalbec

 

For all the issues with Bobby Dee's strike outs and defense, it's hard to totally give up on this 27 year old. The 35% K-Rate is awful, and it wasn't much better in the minors. I doubt he ever rids himself of high K-Rates, but the question has always been, "Can he hit, hit for power or get on base enough to make up for the Ks?" We hoped his defense would improve when moved from 3B to 1B, but it's really only gotten worse, and to the point where it is a clear drag on his value as a non DH. His .360 career OBP in the minors did not translate well to the bigs, where it sits at .318. The SLG has faired better but still dipped from .507 to .456. The 45 HRs and 85 XBHs in 814 career ABs is decent, and would normally be enough to keep anyone in the bigs for a while, but the horrific D and lowering OBP makes him a big question mark on being good enough to outweigh the massive K totals.

 

Let's face it: this guy looks pathetic at the plate for super long periods of time. It's his streakiness that bugs the hell out of us, but those hot streaks have been good enough and sometimes long enough to keep some hope alive. Here are his numbers by cherry-picked time periods:

 

.959 first 92 PAs of career (the 2020 season)

.595 first 173 PAs of 2021

.881 next 78 PAs in '21

.487 next 55 in '21

1.104 in last 147 PAs of '21

(0.00 in 12 PAs in the 2021 playoffs)

.578 first 164 PAs of '22

.715 last 189 PAs of '22

 

Overall, if you look at his 650 PA average for his 898 career PAs and think this is just his start to MLB, one might think the guy looks very promising:

 

.232 33 96 (62 XBHs)

 

He has options left, so giving him another chance to work his way back up into another change in the bigs makes sense, to me.

 

 

 

Previously...

 

A look at Josh Taylor

 

I've always liked this guy, but the injury bug has bit him hard, of late. His 2019 and 2021 seasons are two of the best seasons we've seen from our pen in the last 4-5 years:

 

2019 (47 IP)

3.04 ERA

3.11 FIP

1.18 WHIP

11.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9

 

2021 (48 IP)

3.40 ERA

2.83 FIP

1.43 WHIP

11.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9

 

He may never recover from his serious injury, but I can understand why we are holding onto him on the 40. (He still has 2 options remaining, so why not?)

 

A look at Ryan Brasier

 

Many of us wonder how this guy is still on the 26 and 40 man roster year in and year out. No doubt, he has look good and very good, at times, but that seems to be fewer and fewer times or so long ago, it's almost forgotten. He's had some stretches of very good pitching, and his 34 IP in 2018 were excellent (1.60 ERA/ 0.772 WHIP), but since then his numbers have been:

155 IP (4 yrs)

4.82 ERA

1.32 WHIP

9.5 K/9

2.8 BB/9

3.92 FIP (which might be the answer to why he's still here) It was 3.61 in 2022 & 3.07 after May 17th.

 

I keep thinking he might be the next guy DFA'd or traded for scraps, but it never happens. Maybe, this will be the year.

[moonslav59]

So as of mid-January, we have one position player who is both a) a proven MLB commodity and whose Opening Day starting position we know.

 

And somehow, strangely, you get the feeling Bloom likes it this way...

 

I think it is safe to say Turner is our starting and FT Turner DH, but yes, this point is an eye-opener.

[notin]

So as of mid-January, we have one position player who is both a) a proven MLB commodity and whose Opening Day starting position we know.

 

And somehow, strangely, you get the feeling Bloom likes it this way...

 

Devers, Verdugo and Turner.

[moonslav59]

Devers, Verdugo and Turner.

 

With Kike maybe playing IF, are we sure Dugo starts RF?

 

Could it be:

LF Yoshida

CF Dugo

RF Refsnyder/Duran

[moonslav59]

Today is the deadline day for both clubs and players to submit figures to MLB for salary arbitration.

 

Does this mean we are pretty much locked into Brasier being on our opening day roster, barring a trade?