A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Do we need a LF'er, 1Bman and 3Bman in 2024 or beyond?

 

Devers is locked up forevers.

Casas has 6 years.

DH is the easiest slot to fill.

 

Even going by just AAV, the percent is still way too high on positions far down my top priority list.

 

18 Yoshida (it would be 21, if the $15M posting fee was divided by 5 and added)

16 Jansen

11 Turner

10 Kluber

10 Kike

7.5 Martin

2.0 Rodriguez

 

Either way you slice and dice it, 2 of our top 5 signings were at positions of low priority needs.

 

$29M AAV out of $74.5, which is nearly 40% of the AAV spent. If you count the posting fee of $3M x 5 years, it's over 40%.

 

To me, and this is just my opinion, our top needs were:

 

Urgent

1. SS

2. Closer

3. SP #1 or #2

 

Semi Urgent

4. RF

5. RP 2/3

6. SP 3/4

 

Secondary Needs

7. DH

8. RP 4/5

9. C

 

LF, 3B and 1B were near the bottom of my list. Were they high on your list?

 

I can see DH being higher than #7, but in no way was LF/DH a top 5 need. We made it our number 1 signing. We made DH/3B/1B our 3rd highest signing.

 

How is this not an issue worthy of criticism or even harsh criticism?

9

 

 

Mostly because you’re looking at short term needs and criticizing how the long term solutions fill them.

 

The Sox do need a shortstop for 2023. Maybe 2024. But does that mean it’s their top need for the next 11 seasons?

[moonslav59]

Mostly because you’re looking at short term needs and criticizing how the long term solutions fill them.

 

The Sox do need a shortstop for 2023. Maybe 2024. But does that mean it’s their top need for the next 11 seasons?

 

LF, 3B and 1B were not our high need areas for 2023, 2024 or beyond.

 

DH was a need, but it should never be a top need, unless you are a stacked team to begin with.

 

Your point about SS is a good one. To pay big for a SS would have meant large and LONG, and we don't need LONG. We may still fill that short term need, yet, and that part of my position takes a major hit.

 

That being said, I still think spending so much 2023 AAV and extended financial commitments on 2 guys that should be DHs and as secondary positions play LF, 1B and 3B is not what we needed most, now or in 2024 and beyond.

 

We look all set at 3B and 1B. I've been crying about us having 3 LF'er in our OF for a couple years, now, and that was before we signed Yoshida.

 

I'm excited about Yoshida and Turner's projected offense, and I do think they'll help us a lot. I had hoped we'd trade Dugo and get a real RF'er, and that would have made the Yoshida signing more understandable. Dugo has 2 more years of team control, so we needed a LF'er for 2025>>> not 2023 and 2024.

 

Casas is somewhat of a question mark, so maybe having Turner might help at 1B, if we need him there.

 

My point is, simply put, I wish we'd spent more on a solid SP'er, even if by trade, SS and RF than DH/LF/1B/3B. Do you disagree, in theory.?

[moonslav59]

Because run-scoring actually is important. Putting it as far down on the list of needs as you're doing seems totally arbitrary to me.

 

We lost Bogey and JD. We had to replace their offense. If we acquire a SS now, as hopefully we will, it won't be an offensive shortstop like Bogey, that much seems certain.

 

It's not just who we lost, it's what we got at other positions and who we have at areas of need.

 

Nobody looks and say, "We need to replace JBJ in RF," but we needed a RF'er more than a DH, and we ended up getting Dugo there. All of a sudden, defense doesn't matter in RF? We gave up Renfroe over this same issue!

 

2021 OPS by position:

.661 RF (We had Ref and Duran on the Nov depth chart, here)

.671 CF (presumably, Kike was the solution for 2023.)

.683 1B (presumably, Casas was the solution w Dalbec in reserve)

.694 C (not a high offensive priority with the Sox.)

.694 LF (Dugo at .732 was going to play LF FT, before the Yoshida signing)

 

Yes, I agree that we needed a big b oost on offense, but my point is about the positions we chose to boost.

 

We have Devers at 3B.

We have Casas and Dalbec at 1B- not sure bets, but better than Duran and Ref in RF or Arroyo needing to play middle IF.

We had several rotating DH options from Dalbec, Arroyo, Dugo or Ref and maybe EValdez that, to me, looked like better options than we had in RF & SS.

 

I get that there were not many FA options in RF. Nimmo was way overpaid, and I'm not saying he'd have been a better signing than Yoshida, but to me the positional priority list was out of whack. I get yours and notin's points, but to me, this was a mistake.

 

Forcing Dugo to RF is a mistake.

 

The Turner signing by itself is not upsetting, and like I said, if we add a decent SS on now 2Bman or CF'er/RF'er, it will no longer be an issue.

 

I'm just saying, as of right now, our priority list looks out of whack.

[notin]

LF, 3B and 1B were not our high need areas for 2023, 2024 or beyond.

 

DH was a need, but it should never be a top need, unless you are a stacked team to begin with.

 

Your point about SS is a good one. To pay big for a SS would have meant large and LONG, and we don't need LONG. We may still fill that short term need, yet, and that part of my position takes a major hit.

 

That being said, I still think spending so much 2023 AAV and extended financial commitments on 2 guys that should be DHs and as secondary positions play LF, 1B and 3B is not what we needed most, now or in 2024 and beyond.

 

We look all set at 3B and 1B. I've been crying about us having 3 LF'er in our OF for a couple years, now, and that was before we signed Yoshida.

 

I'm excited about Yoshida and Turner's projected offense, and I do think they'll help us a lot. I had hoped we'd trade Dugo and get a real RF'er, and that would have made the Yoshida signing more understandable. Dugo has 2 more years of team control, so we needed a LF'er for 2025>>> not 2023 and 2024.

 

Casas is somewhat of a question mark, so maybe having Turner might help at 1B, if we need him there.

 

My point is, simply put, I wish we'd spent more on a solid SP'er, even if by trade, SS and RF than DH/LF/1B/3B. Do you disagree, in theory.?

 

The time to spend on a RF was 2019. And mvp is fairly confident it won’t be Verdugo out there this year.

 

Right now, I’m not sure there are any positions I’d go large and long for with external candidates.

 

In just don’t think you spend large and long on positions; you spend large and long on special players…

Edited January 15, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

The time to spend on a RF was 2019. And mvp is fairly confident it won’t be Verdugo out there this year.

 

Right now, I’m not sure there are any positions I’d go large and long for with external candidates.

 

In just don’t think you spend large and long on positions; you spend large and long on special players…

 

I'm remaining hopeful my whole point ends up being moot.

 

Add a SS who can defend well. A one year deal makes the most sense, but more is okay.

 

Add a 2Bman, maybe Wendle. Keep Kike in CF.

 

Add a RF'er, maybe Dugo is traded to fill the SS, 2B or RF need.

 

I'd like to see us add Fulmer or Chaffin, but if we do the 3 things listed above, I'm totally fine with spending a lot on LF/DH and DH/1B/3B. I like Yoshida's prospects. I think Turner will do great in Fenway and offers us nice depth at 3B and 1B. He also makes Dalbec expendable or nice AAA depth at 3B, 1B, DH and maybe even 2B or eventually LF.

 

Something as moderate as Andrus, Wendle and Laureno would do the trick for me.

 

Mateo, Mondesi, DeJong or BCrawford are also SS options.

 

Michael Taylor from the Royals might not cost us much.

 

I'm sure there are some 2B bridge options out there beyond Wendle, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

To me, and this is just my opinion, our top needs were:

 

Urgent

1. SS

2. Closer

3. SP #1 or #2

 

Semi Urgent

4. RF

5. RP 2/3

6. SP 3/4

 

Secondary Needs

7. DH

8. RP 4/5

9. C

 

LF, 3B and 1B were near the bottom of my list. Were they high on your list?

 

I can see DH being higher than #7, but in no way was LF/DH a top 5 need. We made it our number 1 signing. We made DH/3B/1B our 3rd highest signing.

 

How is this not an issue worthy of criticism or even harsh criticism?

 

 

 

1. NEVER A CONSIDERATION -- many of us assumed the Red Sox were never going to spend big money to replace Bogey -- not when they were focused on using it to lock up Raffy... plus, eight of their top 20 prospects are listed as shortstops, including #1.

2. check

3. NON-MOVE -- but remember, there are some posters whose data shows that signing free agent starters long and large never works out, at least in Boston (which I can't argue)... and then there are those who like to say "the time isn't right" (which I can't stand)

4. NON-MOVE -- for a big leaguer at any outfield position

5. check

6. NON-MOVE -- unless you'd start Kluber in a playoff game over Bello-Whitlock-Sale-Paxton, even Pivetta (the projected #5, who led the staff in starts in '22). Put it this way: if the Sox get to the postseason, the afore-mentioned rotation must have been healthy and successful. All we know about Kluber's last playoff outing is he was the 8th guy to take the mound for the Rays in the game they got eliminated and he gave up the run that did it.

 

11. Devers Forevers! This was so anti-Bloom that John Henry even flew with the braintrust to the DR to get it done... but it happened on Bloom's watch, and right now is the best signing of his Era for so many reasons...

[moonslav59]

1. NEVER A CONSIDERATION -- many of us assumed the Red Sox were never going to spend big money to replace Bogey -- not when they were focused on using it to lock up Raffy... plus, eight of their top 20 prospects are listed as shortstops, including #1.

2. check

3. NON-MOVE -- but remember, there are some posters whose data shows that signing free agent starters long and large never works out, at least in Boston (which I can't argue)... and then there are those who like to say "the time isn't right" (which I can't stand)

4. NON-MOVE -- for a big leaguer at any outfield position

5. check

6. NON-MOVE -- unless you'd start Kluber in a playoff game over Bello-Whitlock-Sale-Paxton, even Pivetta (the projected #5, who led the staff in starts in '22). Put it this way: if the Sox get to the postseason, the afore-mentioned rotation must have been healthy and successful. All we know about Kluber's last playoff outing is he was the 8th guy to take the mound for the Rays in the game they got eliminated and he gave up the run that did it.

 

11. Devers Forevers! This was so anti-Bloom that John Henry even flew with the braintrust to the DR to get it done... but it happened on Bloom's watch, and right now is the best signing of his Era for so many reasons...

 

I know my point was more about the percentage of money spent on DH/LF and DH/3B/1B, and I get the idea that we were never going to spend big at SS, but it was and still is a high priority need area, and I do still expect us to add a SS by opening day.

 

I hope we also add a 2Bman, so Kike can play CF FT.

 

My 4th with is to add a real RF'er, but I'm not sure that happens. Maybe tied for 4th is adding another solid pitcher, but I think we will not do that.

 

I think we will add 2 players from SS, 2B and CF (Kike moves, if we get a CF'er.)

[moonslav59]

Sox interested in Andrus & Profar. Must mean we get neither.

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-interested-in-jurickson-profar-elvis-andrus.html

[harmony]

Sox interested in Andrus & Profar. Must mean we get neither.

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-interested-in-jurickson-profar-elvis-andrus.html

Would Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar prefer a contender? Or is it too late in the offseason to be choosy?

[moonslav59]

Would Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar prefer a contender? Or is it too late in the offseason to be choosy?

 

Good one.

 

It's almost always about the money.

 

Let's see about the contender thing, later this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Would Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar prefer a contender? Or is it too late in the offseason to be choosy?

 

The world's most polite trash talker.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good one.

 

It's almost always about the money.

 

Let's see about the contender thing, later this year.

 

But there is a pattern for a patient GM that waits out -- not the market, but the scramble in reinforcement periods like the offseason and trade deadline. That's where Harm's being choosy and your about-the-money combine... for both guys like Bloom and players he recruits.

 

Neither necessarily guarantees assembling a contender, though I've always favored quality over quantity.

 

As for the dilemma that is Duran: I know he's the bullseye of the '22 debacle, but a player has to have skills beyond speed in college to get drafted, and then to succeed at each pro level in the minors to make the majors. A few years back there was a feature on Duran when he was batting over .400 in A ball. A video of a BP session showed him taking a two-step into each swing; obviously, better pitchers exploited that approach -- which he no longer does.

 

Ballplayers constantly make adjustments. The ones who figure it out stay in the bigs.

[Nick]

The clock has started ticking for Devers led 'the core group' in pursuit of next Championship.

 

Unless Casas blows up like Fred Lynn/Jim Rice rookie year, Sale returns to his old self (starts 30+ games), Bello improves on his September showing, Whitlock takes it up a notch proving he was not 100% healthy last year and is a legitimate starter, Yoshida wins the Rookie of the Year award and Devers has his best season to date, we have no shot at getting into the playoffs as of today.

 

I want to see Mata and Rafaela sooner later than later. This bullpen is basically on a two year rental. We need reinforcements.

[notin]

The clock has started ticking for Devers led 'the core group' in pursuit of next Championship.

 

Unless Casas blows up like Fred Lynn/Jim Rice rookie year, Sale returns to his old self (starts 30+ games), Bello improves on his September showing, Whitlock takes it up a notch proving he was not 100% healthy last year, Yoshida wins the Rookie of the Year award and Devers has his best season to date, we have no shot at getting into the playoffs as of today.

 

I want to see Mata and Rafaela sooner later than later. This bullpen is basically on a two year rental. We need reinforcements.

 

I think it would take a lot less to get into the postseason in 2023. Of course having 3 wild card spots does help.

 

Really if Yoshida can come close to Bogaerts’ 22, that would be a huge step. Plus I would imagine addressing the most glaring weakness (bullpen$ should go a long way to adding a few more wins to the 78 from last season.

 

Obviously no guarantees. Injuries could derail this team. Unless they’re to outfielders…

[Nick]

SoxProsepects has following players arriving to Fenway during 2023.

 

#4 Rafaela (CF/SS) 22

#6 Mata (SP) 23

#8 Walter (SP) 26

#13 Murphy (SP) 24

#17 Valedz (2B) 24

#23 German (RP) 25

 

#1 Mayer is projected to arrive late 2024.

[notin]

SoxProsepects has following players arriving to Fenway during 2023.

 

#4 Rafaela (CF/SS) 22

#6 Mata (SP) 23

#8 Walter (SP) 26

#13 Murphy (SP) 24

#17 Valedz (2B) 24

#23 German (RP) 25

 

#1 Mayer is projected to arrive late 2024.

 

The only one I definitely disagree on is German, but only because he arrived in 2022. (Assuming by “arrive” they mean “debut”.)

[notin]

I know my point was more about the percentage of money spent on DH/LF and DH/3B/1B, and I get the idea that we were never going to spend big at SS, but it was and still is a high priority need area, and I do still expect us to add a SS by opening day.

 

I hope we also add a 2Bman, so Kike can play CF FT.

 

My 4th with is to add a real RF'er, but I'm not sure that happens. Maybe tied for 4th is adding another solid pitcher, but I think we will not do that.

 

I think we will add 2 players from SS, 2B and CF (Kike moves, if we get a CF'er.)

 

I think, unless the Sox deal Verdugo, they only add one player.

 

If it’s Andrus, we probably see Kike shift to 2b and Duran take CF.

 

I just don’t see adding Profar, who has almost no recent experience at any position the Sox need. Duvall makes some sense but leaves some question marks in the middle infield. Ditto Duvall…

[moonslav59]

I think, unless the Sox deal Verdugo, they only add one player.

 

If it’s Andrus, we probably see Kike shift to 2b and Duran take CF.

 

I just don’t see adding Profar, who has almost no recent experience at any position the Sox need. Duvall makes some sense but leaves some question marks in the middle infield. Ditto Duvall…

 

We have enough money to fill 2 of the 3 slots (the 2 Kike is not playing.) If we don't fill both through free agency, we can find one via trade without losing a key prospect. I am certain we get 2. I think the chance we add 3 is greater than the chan ce at adding just 1.

 

Andrus & Michael A Taylor.

 

Andrus & Wendle.

 

Andrus, Wendle & Taylor.

[moonslav59]

The only one I definitely disagree on is German, but only because he arrived in 2022. (Assuming by “arrive” they mean “debut”.)

 

Unless he gets hurt, Mata is going to pitch in the bigs, this season.

 

We will also see Kelly, who pitched some in '22 and maybe Ro. Hern & Hamilton.

[mvp 78]

The time to spend on a RF was 2019. And mvp is fairly confident it won’t be Verdugo out there this year.

 

Right now, I’m not sure there are any positions I’d go large and long for with external candidates.

 

In just don’t think you spend large and long on positions; you spend large and long on special players…

 

I'm saying that it SHOULDN'T be Verdugo. They may go with him out there but it will be UGLY.

[mvp 78]

The clock has started ticking for Devers led 'the core group' in pursuit of next Championship.

 

Unless Casas blows up like Fred Lynn/Jim Rice rookie year, Sale returns to his old self (starts 30+ games), Bello improves on his September showing, Whitlock takes it up a notch proving he was not 100% healthy last year and is a legitimate starter, Yoshida wins the Rookie of the Year award and Devers has his best season to date, we have no shot at getting into the playoffs as of today.

 

I want to see Mata and Rafaela sooner later than later. This bullpen is basically on a two year rental. We need reinforcements.

 

We only see Rafaela sooner than later if he refines his approach at the plate. He's just not a patient hitter. He'll look like the bad version of JBJ.

[mvp 78]

I think, unless the Sox deal Verdugo, they only add one player.

 

If it’s Andrus, we probably see Kike shift to 2b and Duran take CF.

 

I just don’t see adding Profar, who has almost no recent experience at any position the Sox need. Duvall makes some sense but leaves some question marks in the middle infield. Ditto Duvall…

 

Profar is LF only profile at this point unless he's being signed as a backup UTIL. I don't think he's a starting 2B for any serious team.

[mvp 78]

SoxProsepects has following players arriving to Fenway during 2023.

 

#4 Rafaela (CF/SS) 22

#6 Mata (SP) 23

#8 Walter (SP) 26

#13 Murphy (SP) 24

#17 Valedz (2B) 24

#23 German (RP) 25

 

#1 Mayer is projected to arrive late 2024.

 

It'll be sooner.

[notin]

Unless he gets hurt, Mata is going to pitch in the bigs, this season.

 

We will also see Kelly, who pitched some in '22 and maybe Ro. Hern & Hamilton.

 

R Hernandez was removed from the 40 man…

[notin]

I'm saying that it SHOULDN'T be Verdugo. They may go with him out there but it will be UGLY.

 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder…

[mvp 78]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder…

 

Yes it is.

 

Case in point...

 

@MacCerullo

Christian Arroyo has spent seven stints on the injured list since coming to Boston, which have disrupted what has otherwise been a successful tenure with the #RedSox.

 

If there’s ever a year for him to stay healthy though, this is it.

[mvp 78]

R Hernandez was removed from the 40 man…

 

No chance is he brought up. He'd have to be absolutely mashing and learning how to really Catch.

[Old Red]

Yes it is.

 

Case in point...

 

@MacCerullo

Christian Arroyo has spent seven stints on the injured list since coming to Boston, which have disrupted what has otherwise been a successful tenure with the #RedSox.

 

If there’s ever a year for him to stay healthy though, this is it.

 

I still think he will be the starting 2B just like he was going to be, before Story came up lame. Of course you would need a plan B, and C for backup.

[notin]

I still think he will be the starting 2B just like he was going to be, before Story came up lame. Of course you would need a plan B, and C for backup.

 

 

Until they acquire a SS or 2b, Arroyo is the starter. Unless her gets platooned with Valdez.

 

He could also wind up in a platoon with Duran where E Hernandez flips between 2b (vs RHP) and CF (vs LHP), but that’s probably a bit of a long shot…

[moonslav59]

The clock has started ticking for Devers led 'the core group' in pursuit of next Championship.

 

Unless Casas blows up like Fred Lynn/Jim Rice rookie year, Sale returns to his old self (starts 30+ games), Bello improves on his September showing, Whitlock takes it up a notch proving he was not 100% healthy last year and is a legitimate starter, Yoshida wins the Rookie of the Year award and Devers has his best season to date, we have no shot at getting into the playoffs as of today.

 

I want to see Mata and Rafaela sooner later than later. This bullpen is basically on a two year rental. We need reinforcements.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, and my biggest reason to be bright is that we really don't need "everything to go right" to show significant improvement and contend for a playoff slot. We might need closer to "everything" to advance farther than making the playoffs, but to me we have a lot to be hopeful about. Despite knowing some of these "what ifs" will surely not materialize many listed below seem more likely than not likely.

 

What if...

 

Sale and or Paxton can return to near top form and give us 33-40+ starts, combined.

 

Bello does not need to "improve upon Sept '22," he can actually do worse and still be a huge addition. He had a 2.59 ERA and 2.70 FIP.

 

Whitlock thrives by not being jerked around all year.

 

Kluber just stays healthy and pitches like the 2021-2022 Kluber. Not a lot to ask.

 

Pivetta just stays Pivetta.

 

Houck is given one slot and kept there- most likely high leverage set-up than may include 2-3 IP in some outings.

 

Jansen, one of MLB's most consistent closers for 12 straight seasons (his FIP going over 3.48 just once in his whole career- back in 2018) just gives us another Jansen season. Last 3 seasons have been amazingly similar: 2.86 ERA/ 3.12 FIP.

 

Schreiber just gives us 75% of the 2022 Schreiber.

 

Martin, Joely Rodriguez and Mills do better than Diekman, Davis, Sawamura, Danish & Co.

 

Barnes or Taylor return to near past form. Just one.

 

Just one, maybe 2, if we see a lot of pitching injuries, from Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Murphy, Kelly, German, Ort and last an likely least, Brasier. Just one or two.

 

McGuire hits near .690 and handles the staff well. Wong does not embarrass himself as the back-up catcher.

 

Casas plays solid D and gives us something better than .240 25 80 (OBP over .320.) Turner backs him up well.

 

Devers might have a bust out season, as he finally reached prime, but we only need him to give us his last 4 season numbers per 162:

.292 34 114 (.894 OPS). This is really not expecting more than a player's normal age progression chart would project.

 

Yoshida is the hardest to project or to get a firm grip on what we can realistically expect or hope for. I'm thinking:

Low end .280 10 75 (.780 OPS)

Middle .290 15 85 (.825 OPS)

High end .300 20 100 (.875 OPS)

 

Kike is another tough one to project. How about just to stay healthy and give us numbers between 2021 and 2022. here is his 162 gm avg from '21-'22:

.238 19 75 (94 runs and .320 OBP) .721 OPS. I'm hoping for better, but we should only need this.

 

Dugo's age progression chart is out of whack. He peaked at age 24 (2020): OPS+ 93>113>123>107>102. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect him to stop the slide and to just give us his last 4 seasons' average at age 27. 162 game avg '19-'22:

.289 15 69 (86 runs and .343 OBP) .778 OPS.

 

Turner is aging and could drop off like a cliff, but his second half to 2022 was a great sign he is far from "done." He hit .968 in his final 246 PAs or 2022. His 162 gam clip would have been .349 25 118! He hit .986 over his last 140 PAs.

OPS+ trend 151>130>133>120>116. If he can give us 112-120, it would help, a lot.

 

The two unknown slots are the two Kike is not going to play: SS, 2B or CF. Right now, I see little hope in anyone on our current roster stepping up and filling in a role at even replacement player level. I think we add two more players, so the specific "hopes" are unknown, as of now. There is a slight chance Arroyo could stay healthy for one full season. I'm not expecting or projecting that to happen, but the possibility is there. His 2021-2022 numbers combined would be an awesome addition to the 2023 team: 481 PAs .277 12 61 (.749 OPS and 102 OPS+) Refsnyder's 2022 season looks like a fluke, but he could possibly give us his 2021-2022 avg season in 2023: 334 PAs .277 BA/ .778 OPS & 116 OPS+. I have very little hope in Duran, but I guess miracles can happen. Dalbec has shown he can hit very well in long stretches, but can also look god-awful in equally long stretches. He does offer a glimmer of hope, but we might not need it at 1B/DH/3B.

 

All-in-all, we have a lot of storylines that offer some degree of hope. Some, like Sale and Paxton seem like pipedreams. but many seem more likely to happen than not happen.