A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

There has to be several decent SSs with one year of team control on a team going nowhere.

[moonslav59]

There has to be several decent SSs with one year of team control on a team going nowhere.

 

One year SSs and BTV value:

 

9.6 R Ahmed

5.9 M Rojas

1.5 A Mondesi

0.8 Kiner-Falefa

0.0 JT Riddle

-0.7 B Crawford

-5.9 N Ahmed

 

FA

Andrus

Iggy

Gregorius

Simmons

Segura (2B)

 

[moonslav59]

According to cots, and adding the $10M AAV for Turner, we look to be $38M short of the tax line. If the plan was to stay competitive while resetting the budget, leaving so much on the table really is a head-scratcher. Granted, there is still time to sign a few second tier FAs that could use up close to all of that money, like Kluber or Nate and Andrus or Segura, or we could trade for a large salary player.

 

Assuming we add a SP'er and middle IF'er- I'll select Kluber and Andrus, our 26 man roster might look like this:

 

1. L Yoshida LF (DH)

2. R Story 2B (SS)

3. L Devers 3B (DH)

4. R Turner DH (1B/DH)

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Kike CF (2B)

7. L Verdugo RF (LF)

8. R Andrus SS

9. L McGuire

Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, Wong & Dalbec/EValdez

 

S1 Sale/ Paxton (one on the IL)

S2 Kluber

S3 Whitlock

S4 Bello

S5 Pivetta

 

R1 Jansen

R2 Martin

R3 Houck

R4 Schreiber

R4 Barnes

R5 J Rodriguez

R6 Mills (1 option remaining)

R7 Brasier

R8 Taylor/Crawford/Kelly/German/Ort/DHern

SP on farm (converted to pen?) Winckowski/Seabold/Mata/Walter/Murphy/Santos

 

 

[a700hitter]

Nice move by Blue Jays getting Daulton Varsho. That is the kind of move that I would like to have seen Bloom make.

[sk7326]

There has to be several decent SSs with one year of team control on a team going nowhere.

 

The Giants are not that team, but Brandon Crawford had a huge dropoff from 2021.

 

Miguel Rojas would be the guy to target.

[sk7326]

One year SSs and BTV value:

 

9.6 R Ahmed

5.9 M Rojas

1.5 A Mondesi

0.8 Kiner-Falefa

0.0 JT Riddle

-0.7 B Crawford

-5.9 N Ahmed

 

FA

Andrus

Iggy

Gregorius

Simmons

Segura (2B)

 

 

Andrus would cost nothing so he is probably the best option.

 

Of the trade options, the best is likely Rojas. Crawford is expensive, and you are betting that 2022 was the fluke and not 2021 (where he was a legit MVP candidate)

[harmony]

Nice move by Blue Jays getting Daulton Varsho. That is the kind of move that I would like to have seen Bloom make.

A trade for Daulton Varsho likely would have cost the Red Sox a top prospect such as Triston Casas, who is a month older than Gabriel Moreno, who plays a premium position.

 

Casas entered the 2022 season as the 17th-ranked prospect at Baseball America while Moreno entered the season as BA's seventh-ranked prospect. This year Casas posted 0.3 fWAR and 120 wRC+ in 27 MLB games while Moreno posted 0.7 fWAR and 113 wRC+ in 25 games.

 

Of course the Diamondbacks also got two years of established veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the trade. Two years of Alex Verdugo might be a reasonable comp.

Edited December 23, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Andrus would cost nothing so he is probably the best option.

 

Of the trade options, the best is likely Rojas. Crawford is expensive, and you are betting that 2022 was the fluke and not 2021 (where he was a legit MVP candidate)

 

My guess is the reason Andrus is not already in a Sox uniform is that he wants 3 years or 2 with a hefty buyout after 2 years and an option year. He should get 2-4 years from someone.

 

I think we will need to bite the bullet and trade for Rojas from the Marlins or some other 1 year SS. It shouldn't be too costly, but if we get a real good defensive SS who might hit .700 without costing a top prospect, it may help by allowing Story to stay at 2B, and leave more budget space to sign Kluber and/or Nate and maybe even Fulmer.

 

[moonslav59]

A trade for Daulton Varsho likely would have cost the Red Sox a top prospect such as Triston Casas, who is a month older than Gabriel Moreno, who plays a premium position.

 

Casas entered the 2022 season as the 17th-ranked prospect at Baseball America while Moreno entered the season as BA's seventh-ranked prospect. This year Casas posted 0.3 fWAR and 120 wRC+ in 27 MLB games while Moreno posted 0.7 fWAR and 113 wRC+ in 25 games.

 

Of course the Diamondbacks also got two years of established veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the trade. Two years of Alex Verdugo might be a reasonable comp.

 

Sounds about right. They may have insisted on Mayer and Dugo- maybe for Varsho and Ahmed.

[harmony]

A trade for Daulton Varsho likely would have cost the Red Sox a top prospect such as Triston Casas, who is a month older than Gabriel Moreno, who plays a premium position.

 

Casas entered the 2022 season as the 17th-ranked prospect at Baseball America while Moreno entered the season as BA's seventh-ranked prospect. This year Casas posted 0.3 fWAR and 120 wRC+ in 27 MLB games while Moreno posted 0.7 fWAR and 113 wRC+ in 25 games.

 

Of course the Diamondbacks also got two years of established veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the trade. Two years of Alex Verdugo might be a reasonable comp.

CORRECTION: Gurriel will become a XX( free agent upon expiration of contract after 2023 season

[harmony]

The Red Sox offseason is among those reviewed by a FiveThirtyEight columnist:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-teams-that-won-lost-and-confused-us-this-mlb-offseason/

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox offseason is among those reviewed by a FiveThirtyEight columnist:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-teams-that-won-lost-and-confused-us-this-mlb-offseason/

 

Bah Humbug!

[moonslav59]

I know many poo-poo BTV and disagree on many of the values they assign to certain players, but it is shocking to see how the top Sox and Yankee players compare to other AL East teams. According to BTV, and remember this includes prospects, TBR and TOR blow everyone else away, and even BAL has better than NYY and BO do.

 

I won't name names just values of the top 5 and the next 10:

(Remember, this is not how good the players are: it's how good they are or project to be for the money they make or project to make)

 

Top 5

 

TBR: 136, 128, 53, 47, 45

TOR: 154, 94, 56, 54, 52

 

BAL: 146, 87, 52, 39, 36

 

BOS: 55, 41, 37, 34, 33

NYY: 50, 31, 28, 27, 19

 

6-15:

 

TBR: 32, 30, 30, 25, 22, 19, 18, 18, 18, 16

TOR: 35, 28, 26, 25, 17, 12, 11, 11,10, 10

 

BAL: 25, 25, 24, 21, 20, 16, 15, 13, 13, 12

 

BOS: 19, 19, 15, 14, 9, 8, 7, 7, 7, 6

NYY: 17, 14, 13, 12, 11, 11, 11, 10, 9

 

TBR's 16-25 even best our 6-15!

 

15, 15, 14, 13, 11, 9, 8, 8, 7, 6

 

This is not too encouraging.

[Larry Cook]

According to cots, and adding the $10M AAV for Turner, we look to be $38M short of the tax line. If the plan was to stay competitive while resetting the budget, leaving so much on the table really is a head-scratcher. Granted, there is still time to sign a few second tier FAs that could use up close to all of that money, like Kluber or Nate and Andrus or Segura, or we could trade for a large salary player.

 

Assuming we add a SP'er and middle IF'er- I'll select Kluber and Andrus, our 26 man roster might look like this:

 

1. L Yoshida LF (DH)

2. R Story 2B (SS)

3. L Devers 3B (DH)

4. R Turner DH (1B/DH)

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Kike CF (2B)

7. L Verdugo RF (LF)

8. R Andrus SS

9. L McGuire

Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, Wong & Dalbec/EValdez

 

S1 Sale/ Paxton (one on the IL)

S2 Kluber

S3 Whitlock

S4 Bello

S5 Pivetta

 

R1 Jansen

R2 Martin

R3 Houck

R4 Schreiber

R4 Barnes

R5 J Rodriguez

R6 Mills (1 option remaining)

R7 Brasier

R8 Taylor/Crawford/Kelly/German/Ort/DHern

SP on farm (converted to pen?) Winckowski/Seabold/Mata/Walter/Murphy/Santos

 

 

 

I think Hang’em Chaim is very high on Kelly in the bullpen for 2023.

[moonslav59]

I think Hang’em Chaim is very high on Kelly in the bullpen for 2023.

 

He's been very consistent for a long time.

[moonslav59]

Merry

 

Christmas!

[harmony]

Good will to all!

[Oscars]

Merry Christmas from down under(it’s already Boxing Day here!)

The Sox were 20th in HRs in 22, and Bloom said they would improve on that for 2023.

I’m still waiting for him to achieve that …..

[notin]

It’s still Unboxing Day here…

 

 

 

 

(rimshot)

[moonslav59]

Merry Christmas from down under(it’s already Boxing Day here!)

The Sox were 20th in HRs in 22, and Bloom said they would improve on that for 2023.

I’m still waiting for him to achieve that …..

 

Lost HRs and PAs

16 in 596 JD

15 in 631 Bogey

8 in 318 Vaz

6 in 235 Pham

3 in 290 JBJ

1 in 175 Plawecki

1 in 41 Downs

1 in 37 Almonte

0 in 128 others (5)

 

Added:

Yoshida (not known for power)

Turner (13 in 532)

 

(Expected more time from Casas 5/95, McGuire 3/108, Story 16/396, Kike 6/402 and maybe Refsnyder 6/177, Arroyo 6/300 and Wong 1/56.)

[Bellhorn04]

Lost HRs and PAs

16 in 596 JD

15 in 631 Bogey

8 in 318 Vaz

6 in 235 Pham

3 in 290 JBJ

1 in 175 Plawecki

1 in 41 Downs

1 in 37 Almonte

0 in 128 others (5)

 

Added:

Yoshida (not known for power)

Turner (13 in 532)

 

(Expected more time from Casas 5/95, McGuire 3/108, Story 16/396, Kike 6/402 and maybe Refsnyder 6/177, Arroyo 6/300 and Wong 1/56.)

 

Yoshida has averaged 26 HR per 150 games, so he does have some sock.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some posters have speculated through the Bloom Era that the business model Chaim aspires to is in LA, where his former mentor presides.

 

For Sox fans sanging the blues, take heart: the club now has six players who recently wore Dodger Blue who should contribute this year... maybe even lead the team out of the Red.

 

(that wasn't meant to be political, because superheroes wear both blue and red, like Superman, Spider-Man, Captain America, etc.)

[moonslav59]

Yoshida has averaged 26 HR per 150 games, so he does have some sock.

 

If he hits 25 in 600, Turner 15 in 500, Casas hits 25 in 550, McGuire 10 in 400, Story 8 more in 200 more PAs and Kike 4 more in 200 more PAs, we might be even or improve.

 

the 31 Hrs in over 1200 PAs by Bogey and JD should not be hard to replace. Their RBIs, too.

[Bellhorn04]

If he hits 25 in 600, Turner 15 in 500, Casas hits 25 in 550, McGuire 10 in 400, Story 8 more in 200 more PAs and Kike 4 more in 200 more PAs, we might be even or improve.

 

the 31 Hrs in over 1200 PAs by Bogey and JD should not be hard to replace. Their RBIs, too.

 

It's going to be all about run prevention, I think.

[moonslav59]

It's going to be all about run prevention, I think.

 

If you look at just the 2022 numbers, and don't look at the names Bogaerts and JD Martinez, it's not as hard to expect a better offense in 2023.

 

Our 1B offense was a complete disaster. I know relying on a rookie to improve upon anything is pure speculation, but I can't see Casas & Turner doing any worse than Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer.

 

Our 2047 PAs of a .676 OPS in the OF was pathetic. I know relying on a Japanese league player to improve upon anything is speculation, too, but we saw some god-awful performances on offense from many of last year's OF'ers.

.578 JBJ in 271

.629 Kike in 402 (gotta think he can't do that badly, again)

.645 Duran in 235

.672 Pham in 235

.697 Franchy in 275

 

Someone will get hurt, but I'm counting on better from Story and Devers and maybe close to the same offense from the catcher position.

 

Is all this enough to offset this?

 

.307 15 73 Bogey

 

.274 16 63 JD

 

with Yoshida & Turner

 

Wanna know what the average line was for all Sox players per 682 PAs?

 

.258 17 78

 

In reality, that's about what Bogey and JD gave us in 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's not get totally fixated on HR's though.

 

Bogey and JDM were #1 and #3 on the team in OBP, and #2 and #3 in SLG.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a scary thought. What if the really rich owners (other than Henry) look at what Cohen is doing and decide they'd better keep spending their asses off the next 4 years until the current CBA expires, because there may be much worse penalties coming in the next one.

 

What if Henry is using the right strategy but at the wrong time?

 

Four More Years.

[Bellhorn04]

From Chad Finn:

 

The Red Sox have signed quality players — closer Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner, and perhaps outfielder Masataka Yoshida will qualify — but those moves wouldn’t have moved the needle all that much even if the Red Sox had retained Bogaerts. And the fan base’s new, rational fear is that slugging third baseman Rafael Devers could be the next to go.

 

Devers is the one remaining, healthy star. And that’s what is so mystifying about this from a media perspective. The Red Sox don’t really have anyone to market beyond Devers and maybe the unknown Yoshida to persuade fans to pay for NESN 360 subscriptions, or even just to tune in to watch the team on a nightly basis.

[moonslav59]

Let's not get totally fixated on HR's though.

 

Bogey and JDM were #1 and #3 on the team in OBP, and #2 and #3 in SLG.

 

No doubt, their loss will be tough. It's a mystery on why their low RBI totals occured. Only part of it can be blamed on lower OBP's with batters ahead of him, but they did have #1 Devers ahead of them and he had 88 RBI with nobody in front of him.

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt, their loss will be tough. It's a mystery on why their low RBI totals occured. Only part of it can be blamed on lower OBP's with batters ahead of him, but they did have #1 Devers ahead of them and he had 88 RBI with nobody in front of him.

 

Bogaerts:

 

RISP .909

Men on .889

Bases empty .777

 

JDM:

 

RISP .659

Men on .682

Bases empty .890

 

So basically, JD was indeed lousy in RBI situations, whereas Bogey's low RBI number was just a random fluke.